Bitcoin’s Rounded Top [Wyckoff Distribution]: 5 Phases to KnowHello, Trading Community!
Today, we dive into the fascinating world of the Wyckoff Distribution model as it applies to Bitcoin's current market structure. Please remember that this article is purely for educational purposes and is not intended as trading advice.
While we explore potential scenarios, including the possibility of Bitcoin heading down to $30,000 or even $25,000, these claims are speculative and should be considered hypothetical.
The Wyckoff Distribution Model: A Roadmap for Market Tops
The Wyckoff Distribution model offers a comprehensive framework for understanding how major market players distribute their holdings before a significant downturn. It is divided into several phases:
Phase A: The market begins to show preliminary signs of selling pressure after an extended uptrend. This is the first hint that the balance of power is shifting from buyers to sellers.
Phase B: The market enters a consolidation phase, moving sideways as large investors gradually distribute their positions.
Phase C: A deceptive breakout, known as the Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), occurs here, often trapping unsuspecting retail traders.
Phase D: The onset of a decline, marked by clear Signs of Weakness (SOW), indicates that the distribution phase is nearing its end.
Phase E: The final phase, where the market confirms the distribution and continues to fall, marking the completion of the process.
Breaking Down Bitcoin's Key Price Points
Let's take a closer look at the crucial price points that have defined Bitcoin's current structure within the Wyckoff Distribution model:
Buying Climax (BC) - $73,660
This is the pinnacle of buying activity, where demand reaches its peak before supply starts to dominate. For Bitcoin, this level marked the highest point in the current cycle before a significant sell-off began.
Automatic Reaction (AR) - $60,795
Following the Buying Climax, the market experienced an Automatic Reaction—a sharp drop as sellers stepped in. This level is critical as it signifies the start of the distribution process.
Upthrust (UT) - $71,180
The Upthrust represents a rally that tests the resistance near the Buying Climax. However, it fails to sustain those levels, hinting that the market's upward momentum is weakening.
Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) - $71,680
The UTAD often serves as a bull trap, where the price makes a final push above the resistance only to quickly reverse. This move confirms that distribution is taking place.
Sign of Weakness (SOW) - $54,344
After the UTAD, the market drops significantly, signaling a clear Sign of Weakness. This level demonstrates that sellers are gaining control, pushing the price to new lows.
Last Point of Supply 1 (LPSY 1) - $70,040
The first Last Point of Supply (LPSY 1) is a weaker rally that fails to reach previous highs. This is a key indicator that the market's bullish momentum is fading, and distribution is nearing completion.
Last Point of Supply 2 (LPSY 2) - $65,105
Currently, Bitcoin is in Phase E, at the LPSY 2 point. This level is crucial as it typically marks the final confirmation of distribution before a sustained downtrend.
Navigating Phase E: The Final Act of Distribution
As Bitcoin navigates through Phase E, the LPSY 2 level becomes a focal point. This phase is characterized by further price declines as the market confirms the distribution. Here’s what to watch for:
Lower Highs and Lower Lows: Expect the price to continue forming lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish trend.
Volume Patterns: During this phase, volume analysis becomes critical. Look for decreasing volume on upswings and increasing volume on downswings, which confirms the presence of distribution.
Final Thoughts
The Wyckoff Distribution model provides a structured way to understand how markets transition from bullish to bearish trends. With Bitcoin currently exhibiting a Rounded Top structure and sitting at LPSY 2 in Phase E, the evidence suggests that we may be on the cusp of further declines. By staying vigilant and analyzing key price levels and volume patterns, traders can better position themselves to navigate this challenging market environment.
In this complex market phase, understanding the underlying forces at play can be the difference between protecting your capital and being caught off guard by the next big move.
Stay tuned for more!
Bitcoinpriceprediction
BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bearish Confirmation? Oops!Like Ive mentioned in my previous BTC analysis, that $61,500 was critical zone and if it drops below that level, we will see further downward movement and this is exactly how it turned out.
The SHORT position targets are marked on the chart using the Risological swing trader.
Stay safe and all the best.
"Powell and Trump's Pump" & New Study Showing BTC Fractal TargetWe had a nice pump in the markets today, stemming from J Powell's comments from Jackson Hole signalling not only one rate cut coming in September, but likely multiple (not priced in).
RFK also kinda sorta endorsed trump but still kept the Hail Mary option open for him to still get elected (Don't hold your breath, although I'd love to see that. RFK had a great speech at Bitcion 2024 and is a good man, but doesn't have the votes).
Markets reacted positively and some are boldly saying 'The Bull Run is Back'. 🚀
We shall see.
Students of Hurst's Market Cycles will also note that this week (tomorrow the 24th preciely) should be the weekly cycle low, so that could also be a contributing factor.
In this video, I briefly review the NASDAQ:IBIT chart showing one open unfilled gap lower (this can take awhile and so this is still on the table) as well as the new BTC fractal study I mentioned.
(But I forgot to share the DXY chart showing that we're testing the important 101 level, which is looking like it's going to cut right through it like a hot knife through buttah).
Most interesting...
Check out this fractal overlay I pulled from earlier in the year, showing the possible path of Bitcoin higher, and that almost exacly lines up with current / previous trendline S&R as well as my Fibonacci price target of $150, which you can review in some of my other posts here...
Finally seems like we'll have the wind at our back soon.
While this was a nice breeze, I'm going to remain cautious and wait for confirmations higher to go 'all in'. For me, that's seeing confirmed closing price action above $74k.
See the video for some specific / excact entries.
If you'd like me to cover anything in future videos, leave a comment below.
Thanks again to the TradingView team for choosing my last video as 'Editors Pick' today! 🚀🚀
Keep up the good work guys!
New IBIT Downside Gap To Fill Signaling Bitcoin RetracementWe have been following the BlackRock NASDAQ:IBIT 1 Hour and 4 hour chart since it was released earlier this year, and noticing that...
Like the CME chart gaps, the IBIT chart gaps also similarly seem to fill.
EVERY ONE SO FAR.
So I'm now eyeing this lower gap to fill, and since the IBIT tends to be a leading signal to Bitcoin price, I'm expecting Bitcoin to drift lower to re-test recent lows before heading higher again.
BTCUSD SHOWING A GOOD DOWN MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARDBTCUSD SHOWING A GOOD DOWN MOVE WITH 1:10 RISK REWARD
DUE TO THESE REASON
A. its following a rectangle pattern that stocked the market
which preventing the market to move any one direction now it trying to break the strong resistant lable
B. after the break of this rectangle it will boost the market potential for break
C. also its resisting from a strong neckline the neckline also got weeker ald the price is ready to break in the outer region
all of these reason are indicating the same thing its ready for breakout BREAKOUT trading are follws good risk reward
please dont use more than one percentage of your capitalfollow risk reward and tradeing rules
that will help you to to become a bettertrader
thank you
BTC - Distribution of volume from the top- Wyckoff distribution
- Downward movement on the higher timeframes
- all the Influencers keep putting everyone in longs.
and we're falling and falling.
if you like the idea, please "Like" it. This is the best "Thanks!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and please yourself and your friends.
Bitcoin Loong!This coin has been forming a falling flag for the past few days. Considering that the price tested the lower trend and bounced back, there might be a bullish impulse. I anticipate that the bulish momentum will go on and retest the upper trendline at 70000.
Entry point - 60000
SL - 56000
Take Profit - 69000
Bitcoin 4hr Setup Bitcoin is currently experiencing a pullback, having dropped 2,000 pips over the past seven days. Several key factors are converging around the $60,000 level, making it a critical area of interest. These factors include the psychological round number of $60,000, previous market structure, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, and the presence of both an upward and a downward trend line intersecting near this price. Additionally, there's a notable rejection point in this vicinity. Given these confluences, I anticipate a reaction around this level, potentially leading to further downward movement.
Bitcoin Daily Chart
Bitcoin is showing several confluences on the daily chart around the $60,000 level. After a 1,000-pip rally without any significant pullback, a retracement seems likely, as the price may need to dip before resuming its upward momentum. This time, I anticipate that Bitcoin might close below the 200-day moving average during the pullback. However, once it completes this downward move, I expect the price to eventually close above the 200-day moving average and begin a climb toward the top of the current channel.
Is Bitcoin ($BTC) heading toward a -50% correction Armageddon?Is Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) heading toward a -50% correction Armageddon? That is what the weekly chart seems to suggest.
I hate to be the pessimistic guy, but you don't need to be a trading and charting expert to see the similarities between 2021 and 2024.
What could trigger this massive correction is the incredible pump that the ETF has created. Imagine, for the first time in its history, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high BEFORE the halving! That proves how much excitement and overheating the market experienced.
Unfortunately, the stronger the pump is, the harder the correction will be.
We can compare the 2021 chart on a weekly basis, and there are too many similarities for them to be coincidences. Because of the huge ETF pump, the MACD has gone ballistic, and now Bitcoin is way overbought.
The main concern is that it is on the weekly chart, so resetting this indicator will take about 2-3 months, which gives a lot of time for the price to move down and up until we finally reach a reversal, likely after an estimated 50% dump.
In this scenario, the bull run would have a double peak, like the one in 2021, with another bullish phase once the correction is finished, reaching the final goal of this bull run approximately at the end of 2024.
The RSI and volume are also confirming this scenario. The EMAs are positioned at the same distance from the action price.
This scenario is scary. We could see a -80% correction in altcoins.
I hope to read your comments invalidating this idea, because if this happen, I am definitively going back to work at McDonald!
Market Turmoil: Dow Jones Plummets and Bitcoin Retests Key LevelAlright, everyone, it's been a rough day for the US Stock Market. The Dow Jones plummeted following the job report released this morning. In response, I'm anticipating Bitcoin to retest the Fibonacci .618 level and consolidate around $61,000 for a few days. Let's check back in a couple of days to see how things unfold.
Bitcoin Nears Crucial Test as Hashrate StrengthensBitcoin (BTC) is on the cusp of a critical test as it approaches a trendline resistance that proved formidable in May. Concurrently, a surge in Bitcoin mining hashrate, a bullish indicator, is adding fuel to the rally.
The benchmark cryptocurrency has been on a consistent upward trajectory, fueled by a combination of factors including increased institutional interest, macroeconomic concerns, and the halving event. As BTC closes in on the May trendline, traders and analysts are closely watching for how the market will react. A decisive breakout could ignite a new leg up in the price, while a rejection could lead to a period of consolidation or even a temporary pullback.
The recent strengthening of the Bitcoin mining hashrate is a positive development that underpins the bullish outlook. The hashrate, which measures the computational power dedicated to mining new Bitcoin blocks, is often seen as a leading indicator of price trends. A higher hashrate implies increased miner confidence in the future price of Bitcoin, as miners are willing to invest more resources into the network. This surge in hashrate can also be attributed to the ongoing Bitcoin halving cycle, which reduces the block reward and incentivizes miners to optimize their operations.
While the technical and fundamental backdrop for Bitcoin appears constructive, it's essential to approach the market with caution. Cryptocurrencies remain highly volatile assets, and price movements can be influenced by a variety of factors, including regulatory developments, macroeconomic conditions, and investor sentiment.
Moreover, the Bitcoin market has a history of false breakouts, where prices briefly pierce resistance levels before retracing. Therefore, traders must employ risk management strategies and avoid overexposure.
The potential breakout from the May trendline will be a key event to watch. If Bitcoin successfully overcomes this hurdle, it could open the door for a more substantial rally towards higher price targets. However, a rejection at this level could lead to a period of consolidation or even a temporary pullback.
Ultimately, the cryptocurrency market remains highly dynamic, and investors should conduct their own research and due diligence before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments involve significant risks, and investors should be prepared for the possibility of losses.
Bitcoin rangingThe final sell-off of the German government's BTC reserves has calmed down to the point of the big bad olf being gone. Mt Gox is still in the back of everyone's mind which is why the fear greed index still sits below 45 but I truly belive that we have bottomed already and BTC is preparing for a massive explosion in Q4 of this year.
Major BTC Bulltrap? Another leg downwards! BTCUSD Index Analysis OF Very Probable reversal and new downtrend continuation
Reasoning goes by the points I've made below
DOUBLE-TOP that happened at May 20th and June 24th AT 71940 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Further major and strong Order Block (4H OB) at 67700-68400 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD level
This recent move, that has been happening since July 19th, has sweeped old Liqudity area that previously formed mid-trend and formed DOUBLE TOP that happened at June 14th & 17th
Additionally, June 20th Liqudity Run, that formed a Lower Timeframe Breaker Block, which was recently used as support for last liqudity area, just got swept (at the time of writing 20:52 utc +3).
All of above coinsides with 0.236 Fibonaci retracement of last major downtrend that started at June 24th and ended on July 5th.
Exuberant market sentiment about recent market uptrend and additionally too many optimistic mainstream media news regarding $BTCUSD.
For last few confirmation would like to see
66300 Level - Break and Close of LTF Breaker block area
62400 Level - Another imporant level, if we break and close below, then it will only confirm all of the above.
53500 Level - future level that I watch, when we get closer to it I will do another analysis.
#BTC/USDT Road to $150k!#BTC : Block out the noise.
We're far from finished! Each dip presents a new opportunity.
You FOMO when the market's green, but turn sceptical when it's red. That strategy won't cut it.
Bitcoin Monthly Analysis Update
Chart Overview:
- Channel Analysis: Bitcoin is in a long-term ascending channel, showing a bullish trend with strong support and resistance.
- Historical Patterns:
- 2016-2018: 60 bars (420 days),
- 2020-2021: 34 bars (238 days),
- Current Position: Trading at $66,993.6 nearing upper channel resistance with a target of $115k to $150k.
Key Levels:
- Support:
- $51,682.
- $43,285. (High Liquidity Untested Territory)
- Resistance:
- $66,993.6
- $73,000
Future Projections:
- High Liquidity Untested Territory: Retest around $43,210.7 could be a strong buy.
- Bullish Scenario: Breaking current resistance targets $115,000 - $150,000.
- Bearish Scenario: Failure to break $70k resistance may lead to correction towards support levels in the high liquidity zone, GETTEX:48K to $60k. (Will update as the time goes and more candles are printed), less likely scenario but possible. Am I scared or selling? NO! I am holding BTC and Alts.
Market Sentiment: Volume increase during last bull run suggests bullish sentiment, but traders should be ready for volatility.
Conclusion: Bitcoin remains bullish within the ascending channel. Monitor key levels to capitalize on market movements.
DYOR, NFA 🚀
#Crypto
What do you think?
Bitcoin Daily Chart Bitcoin is currently experiencing a pullback after a bullish run lasting nine days. The next strong support zone is between $61,379 and $60,298. I anticipate Bitcoin will fall to this point of interest (POI), where we should see a reaction. There are multiple confluences suggesting a long setup, one of which is Bitcoin trading above the 200-day EMA, an important indicator of strength.
BITCOIN 4h On the 4-hour chart, as you can see, Bitcoin's price faced some demand after ranging and minor fluctuations around the $53,700 level. Following the break above the $60,000 channel, it managed to grow by almost 20% to the $65,000 range.
Currently, it is trading around $64,400. My expectation for Bitcoin is that it could grow to the 66,700–67,500-dollar range. If we see weakness in the candles and confirmation of resistance around the crucial 67,500-dollar level, we might witness consolidation and a correction. To better understand the ongoing trend, we should observe how the price reacts to these key levels. If it encounters demand and manages to break through the significant 67,500-dollar mark, the next target could be around 69,500 dollars.
Remember, this is just my personal analysis, not financial advice. Do your own research and make informed decisions. Happy trading!✌😎
If you have any questions or need further clarification, feel free to ask. I’m here to help!✌
If you found my analysis helpful, please show your support by liking and commenting. Thank you!🙌
BITCOIN ( TRADING ABOVE DEMAND ZONE ) ( 1D )BITCOIN
HELLO TRADERS
TENDENCY : generally the price stabilizing above turning level , indicates is under bullish pressure
TURNING LEVEL : the price around 57,056 , as long as the price trading above this level reach a resistance level , breaking this level trying to touch a support level
PRICE MOVEMENT : the price in previously can be stabilizing above turning level around 57,056 , and created a demand zone , currently price at 59,731 , my opinion the price retest a turning level 57,056 after rising my goal resistance level at 62,452 .
PRICE ACTION :
LONG CONDITION : have two cases to rising for reach a resistance level , first case the price toward directly reach a resistance level at 62,452 , second case price corrective a turning level at 57,056 before rising , if the price breaking supply zone reach a resistance level at 68,362
SHORT CONDITION : if the price breaking 57,056 by open 1D candle below this level reach a support level at 53,664 , then stabilizing below this level reach a 49,963 .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL :62,452 , 68,362
SUPPORT LEVEL : 53,664 , 49,963
#BTC/USDT Hit our Target $63k What's Next? Since the last BTC update, the price has followed our expected path perfectly. Currently, BTC is trading right around the critical resistance level of $63k, a level I've highlighted since it reached $53k. This is the moment of decision.
Following the news of an assassination attempt on Trump, the market experienced a relief rally. However, it's still uncertain whether we are out of the woods yet.
The best strategy now is to start positioning into altcoins while holding BTC. Over the past 3-4 weeks, I've posted insights on 40 altcoins. Feel free to review those, as I'll be sharing 30 more promising altcoins starting today, so make sure to follow me.
Returning to the chart, if BTC breaks above the $63k level, we could see it trading around $70k+ in the short term.
The mid-dotted line, which previously acted as support, has now turned into resistance. A breakout above this level could be very bullish for the market since the same level aligns with Multiple EMAs.
We are almost there; patience is key.
The most reasonable move now is to wait for a breakout above $63k. A break and close above this level would signal a strong opportunity to go long on both altcoins and BTC.
I will keep this chart updated and inform you of any significant changes, whether the breakout occurs or not.
So, follow me and share these charts with others. Don't forget to hit the like button. Please share your views, questions, or altcoin requests if you have any.
Thank you.
PEACE
BTC Long - Take Profit Targets (Short Term/Scalp)🚀 CRYPTOCAP:BTC Update: Soaring High! 🚀
My positions are crushing it! 🤑 Time to start locking in some gains. 😎
Scaling out in these zones:
#BTC: $59.5K - $63.5K 🎯
Already de-risked 25% as we hit the lower end of my targets. Smart money secures profits along the way! 😉
Remember, this is NOT financial advice. Do your own research and trade responsibly! 🧠
Thank you
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