Market overview
📈 WHAT HAPPENED?
Last week, a less priority but expected scenario was realized for Bitcoin. We broke through the sideways in a downward direction and fell to the area of pushing volumes ~$115,000. At this level, strong volume anomalies were recorded, and a rebound occurred.
On Friday, the daily analysis on TradingView indicated a point to join the long movement, which confirmed its accuracy. The price reached the accumulated volume zone of the sideways at $117,600-$119,200 and was able to consolidate above without any significant reaction, which strengthens the buyers' position.
💼 WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?
At the moment, the first protection from sellers has appeared. Let's consider possible scenarios:
1. A decline to the mirror zone of $118,300-$117,300, from which, if the buyers' reaction is confirmed, buys are expected to resume.
Next, a narrow sideways formation within the mentioned zone and a local sell zone of $119,500-$119,000 is possible, followed by a long position.
Another option is to develop a further long divergence from the current levels. In this case, the local sell zone of $119,000-$119,500 will provide additional support.
2. A less priority scenario is a decline to the volume anomaly zone of $116,200-$115,000, with a test of the local minimum. In this case, the recovery will take longer.
Buy Zones:
$118,300–$117,300 (mirror volume zone)
$116,200–$115,000 (volume anomalies)
$110,000–$107,000 (accumulated volumes)
Sell Zone:
$119,500–$119,000 (potential resistance if a correction develops)
📰 IMPORTANT DATES
Macroeconomic events this week:
• July 29, Tuesday, 14:00 (UTC) - publication of the US Consumer Confidence Index from CB for July;
• July 29, Tuesday, 14:00 (UTC) - publication of the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) for June;
• July 30, Wednesday, 08:00 (UTC) - publication of Germany's GDP for the second quarter of 2025;
• July 30, Wednesday, 12:15 (UTC) — ADP's July change in the number of non-agricultural employees in the United States;
• July 30, Wednesday, 12:30 (UTC) — U.S. GDP for the second quarter of 2025;
• July 30, Wednesday, 13:45 (UTC) — Canada's interest rate decision;
• July 30, Wednesday, 18:00 (UTC) — US FOMC statement and announcement of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
•July 30, Wednesday, 18:30 (UTC) — US FOMC press Conference;
• July 31, Thursday, 01:30 (UTC) — publication of the Chinese Manufacturing PMI for July;
•July 31, Thursday, 03:00 (UTC) — announcement of Japan's interest rate decision;
• July 31, Thursday, 12:00 (UTC) — publication of Germany's July Consumer Price Index (CPI);
• July 31, Thursday, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the United States' June Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index and Initial Jobless Claims;
• August 1, Friday, 09:00 (UTC) — publication of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July;
• August 1, Friday, 12:30 (UTC) — publication of the average hourly wage, changes in the number of employees in the non-agricultural sector, and the unemployment rate in the United States for July;
• August 1, Friday, 13:45 (UTC) — publication of the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July.
*This post is not a financial recommendation. Make decisions based on your own experience.
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