Bitcoinscenarios
Bitcoin (BTC/XBT) Daily Long&Short Trade Setups 2021/01/13Live trades will be called in the latest daily post. Follow me to trade live with me!
Also check out my daily post on Ethereum!
MARKET OVERVIEW
Price Action: After dropping 28% from a high of $42K to a low of $30.4K, BTC rallied 20% to $36.5K where it got rejected by the 200MAs and has since showed continued weakness trading under the 200MAs.
Chart Patterns: No significantly visible chart patterns.
Areas of Interest: The area(s) of interest for us are the 61.8 Fib @ $37.5K and the lows @ $30.4K. Once price reaches one of our areas of interest and gives us a valid entry signal, I will update the trade, so make sure you follow me to get the trade entry signals in real time.
TRADES(S) RECAP: LATEST 3 TRADES
2020/ 01 /11: We had two losing trade! We entered long @ $35.4K SL @ $34.1K, and we hit Stop Loss. We entered long again @ $33.1K SL @ $31.6K, and we again hit stop loss. In hindsight, should have stepped aside from such a major selloff and wait for markets to stabilize before looking for trade entries.
2020/ 01 /08: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $37997 SL @ 36760, price reached a high of $41950, giving us a risk reward ratio of 3:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 3BTC.
2020/ 01 /03: We had a winning trade! We entered long @ $33380, SL @ 32.8K, price reached a high of $33.8K, giving us a risk reward ratio of 1:1, meaning if you risked 1BTC on this trade, you could've made 1BTC. While this has been our smallest win so far following our biggest win, a win is a win. Always secure profits and protect your capital.
TRADE SETUPS
Below are the potential trade setups that I would be interested in trading. Regardless of the path that the price takes, I will be monitoring the market for a valid trade entry signal.
Long Trade Setup #1: False Breakdown
To open a long position, we are waiting for price to break above the horizontal support and then recover.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price breaks below the low of $30.4K and then rapidly climbs above $30.4K, forming a bear trap
2. Candlestick Pattern: A breakdown candlestick followed by a reclaiming candlestick
3. Volume: Above average volume on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle
4. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out
Short Trade Setup #1: Retest and Continuation (61.8Fib)
To open a short position, we are waiting for price to retrace up to test the 61.8Fib and then continue moving down.
Trade Entry Confirmation:
1. Price Action: Price needs to move back up to the 61.8Fib @ $37.5K and bounce back down.
2. Candlestick Pattern: A bearish candlestick pattern
3. Volume: Above average volume on entry candle
4. MACD: MACD histogram topping out
ENTRY SIGNAL TYPES
Trade calls will be separated into two categories, official and unofficial. The reason for the distinction is that official entry calls are only for high probability trade setups whereas unofficial calls might have slightly lower probability of winning but positive net profitability due to high risk reward. As I see a lot of traders, do not practice proper risk management and position sizing, I want to protect them from the second type of trades. At the same time, I know there are more sophisticated traders who can take advantage of both types of calls. So this is the solution that I’ve come up with, which is to separate the two trade types into two types of entry calls. Official entry calls will come with detailed entry, stop loss and take profit levels, whereas unofficial trade entries might or might not and will rely a little bit more on the trader themselves to manage the trade. This is one way to distinguish the more experienced traders from the newer ones. If you are unable to enter an unofficial trade entry without those details, then it means that you shouldn’t be taking those trades and should stick only to the official trades.
1. Official entry calls will be posted using “trading active” post type.
2. Unofficial entry calls are potential good trading opportunities that will be posted using “comments” post type.
ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS
Ideally we get all confirmations for an entry, but sometimes we might take a trade when we have fewer confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability, though it also means you miss out on some profitable trades if you're only taking trades when we have all confirmations. It's up to your own risk appetite to decide when you feel comfortable entering a trade. You can also adjust position size based on level of conviction, entering a bigger position when there are more confirmations. Make sure you practice proper risk management and money management.
TRADE MANAGEMENT
I have put in preliminary Stop Loss and Take Profit on the chart, but these will depend on how the entry setup forms, so I will update when we have a valid entry signal.
Stop Loss: We typically put a SL around the high / low of the entry area, though we might adjust based on market conditions such as high ATR ( average true range ) or long wicks.
Take Profit: We typically aim for at least a 2:1 RRR (risk reward ratio), but you can decide to take profits earlier, adjust stop loss as we get into profit, take partial profit, leave a small portion for larger gains, etc. How you want to manage depends on your own risk appetite and what you are comfortable with.
RISK MANAGEMENT / POSITION SIZING
Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. The key is to stay in the game long enough for long term probabilities to play out. Even strategies with 90%+ win rate will have losing trades, so if you go all in one every trade, eventually you will blow up your account. My recommendation is to dynamically change your position size based on the size of the stop loss so that you are risking 1-2% of your total account size on any given trade. This means that if you’re wrong and the trade hitting the stop loss, you lose 1-2% of your account. As an illustration, if your account balance is 1BTC, then the most you should lose on any given trade should be 0.01-0.02BTC. Notice that I didn’t mention leverage here. Because what leverage (3X, 5X,10X, etc.) doesn’t matter here. What matters is the position size that matches up with a 1-2% account balance risk.
HOW TO USE MY ANALYSIS
Every day I post potential areas of interest and trade setups based on the latest market conditions and market structure. Once price reaches one of the identified areas of interest and gives a valid entry signal, I will post the entry, along with stop loss and take profit levels, in real time. No hindsight 20/20 here. Everything is in real time for full transparency and so that you can actually enter the same trades that I'm entering. Some trades only give us a few minutes to enter, which is why it's imperative that you follow me so that you don't miss out. Below are two ways that you can use the analysis that I publish daily:
1. You can integrate my analysis into your own analysis, for example by using it as a starting point, or as confirmation of your own TA, or to identify potential trades for yourself.
2. You follow the trade setups and trade entry signals that I give in real time.
DISCLAIMER: I'M NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR AND THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, AND I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR WINS OR LOSSES, DYOR.
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BTC Trade Setups 2020/12/22There are two potential trade setups that could develop and we can wait patiently to see if either setup gives us a good trade entry.
Scenario 1: False Breakdown at Horizontal Support
In this first scenario, we are waiting for price to hit the horizontal support @~$21800 and then bounce back up.
Confirmation criteria for entering a long position:
1. Candlestick: A breakdown candlestick (candle close below support @~$21800) followed by a reclaiming candlestick (candle close above $21800), ideally breakdown and reclaiming candlesticks are consecutive candles, but also have a few candles in between.
2. Volume: Above average volume ( volume above the average volume line) on both breakdown candle and reclaiming candle, ideally the reclaiming candle's volume is a local high
3. MACD: MACD histogram bottoming out, as indicated by the histogram becoming less negative (color changing from red to pink)
Ideally we get all three confirmations above for an entry, but sometimes we might only get 1 or 2 confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability.
Scenario 2: Rejection at Resistance
In the second scenario, we are waiting for price to go up to the confluent resistance zone of the 200MAs and 61.8 Fib Retracement and then fall back down. This zone is currently projected to be ~$23350, but could be slightly different once we get to that level based on price action.
Confirmation criteria for entering a short position:
1. Candlestick: A bearish candlestick pattern such as a bearish engulfing candle or a multiple candlestick breakdown (a large green candle followed by multiple red candles that eventually close below the open/low of the large green candle)
2. Volume: Above average volume on the bearish engulfing candle / on any of the multiple red candles that eventually break the green candle (ideally on the candle that breaks)
3. MACD: MACD histogram topping out (changing from dark green to light green
Ideally we get all three confirmations above for an entry, but sometimes we might only get 1 or 2 confirmations. The more confirmations, the higher the win probability.
Please follow for daily trading levels and potential trade setups on Bitcoin and Ethereum. I will be posting trade setups at about this time every day.
$30,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2021 according to Elliot Waves🌊 Elliott Wave Theory from a macro perspective shows a rather interesting results.
🔹 If we start wave counting from December 2018, then in the summer of 2019 Bitcoin completed 1st wave of the new super cycle.
🔹 Following ABC-correction ended in March and now BTC is starting the 3rd wave formation.
🔹 Wave 3 consists of a 5-wave smaller cycle, where each wave also has a similar structure.
🔹 We could expect 1st wave of a smaller cycle to be completed in $11,500-$12,000 zone. ABC-correction, which will be completed by the end of 2020, is expected after.
🔹 The continuation of this wave cycle is likely to lead the price of Bitcoin to $20,000, and then to $30,000 by the end of 2021.
🤩 And this will only be the 3rd wave of the 5-wave super cycle...
Price channel leads Bitcoin upwards🔸 In truth, I am not a fan of technical analysis, especially trend lines. Therefore, me personally take this idea with a sound share of skepticism. However, I could not pass by such a classic example with false breakouts of the channel boundaries.
🔸 Two deviations from the trading channel attracted my attention. Such movements have one goal - to collect your liquidity. By the way, how many of you traded breakouts of the channel or any other classic patterns? ;)
🔸 Typically, a strong impulse in the opposite direction leads price to the next level of interest afterwards.
📌 In this case, it’s a center line of the channel and horizontal resistance at $11,000+.
👍🏻 As a confirmation we need price to return to the channel and to test border without re-exiting.
Bitcoin hot atmosphere!To begin with, we take a technical analysis, it in this case indicates the possibility of continuing growth, at least to 10k5$ 11k$. Where is the upper resistance line of the medium-term “Channel up”, how soon will we see the price there? - I think that in the near future everything is possible, and technically we still have a bullish situation!
From a fundamental point of view, there is also a very good mathematical setup directed upwards, especially considering the informative load that the so-called Halving, which should reduce the number of Bitcoins mined by miners by half, therefore, the growth in demand will cause a huge increase in the prices of crypto assets, this , what are we waiting for.
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BTC Weekly Chart Shows 'Mixed Signals'
The past 7 weeks have been green candles fully recovering from the big drop in early March.
Price is now testing resistance against a downwards trendline
While MACD is up, Ichimoku Cloud indicator suggests downwards pressure. Price is inside the cloud, suggesting lack of clear direction. Cloud future is red suggesting bear sentiment. Tenkan-san line (blue MA) is below the Kijun-san line (red MA) also suggesting bear sentiment.
...yet the monthly closed very bullish:
With strong support some 25% lower than current price, and halving taking place next week, we watch and wait...
Best guess at this point: price drops in first half of May's candle and then recovers to close near its high, ready for an April rally.
User our backtesting tool to help decide exact entry and exit points.
15-Minute Triangle With Momentum Pushing Down4 hour, 6 hour and 12 hour time-frames suggest price needs a bit of consolidation, before resuming the higher time-frame momentum of the 2 day, 3 day and weekly. We'll publish a high time-frame view as follow up.
Bitcoin can have more Blood 3200 or Consolidation ? BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
This is Immediate short term analysis on BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
All i am seeing is more consolidation Withing this tiny triangle formed on 4H-TF .
1 .In First Case We may test, hit our previous high 's near 6k, reject and come back rapidly for more consolidation within 4800-58xxk ranges which actually the ranges of the triangle if we fail to find significant volume we may fall down lower (not likely yet) .
2 .Breaking down the triangle and testing support near 3200 levels after testing 4800 (this might not take more than a day if we go break and go down rapidly and have a bearish weekly close below 5100).
I Personally think that the second case is more strong sorry i am not a bear but still it is the way i feel atm.
Happy Trading This is Not an Trading Advise .PLZ use Stop Loss Since its always good to Bet on losing your 3-5% of position rather than losing all of it. Good luck.
Dates for supports you must scroll back to find support and crucial wicks: 06-16 DEC 2018 and 15 16 Sept 2017.
{Posting at 8pm UTC-Last 4h Candle of the day}
Bitcoin 3 Posiible Scenerio and what 200 Weekly MA and EMA says?Bitcoin droped to the 200 Weekly EMA and it acted as the major support and Holding the Bitcoin price, it crashed very hard and what will happen next, Exactly nobody knows!
What the chart says is there are three possible price scenerio may occur;
1. 200 Weekly MA & EMA will continue holding the price above 5,500$(MA) level and 5800$(EMA) then it will make a consolidation phase then a reversal to the upside, now most important thing to watch is how the current Weekly candle closes, if it closes above or between the 200 Weekly MA & EMA and price bounces on the daily candle with high volume then a reversal from 5,800$ can be expected. If it breaks the 200 Weekly MA then point 2.
2. Price will break 200 Weekly MA & EMA and touch the diagonal support line and bounce back from 4,200-4,400$ level respecting the diagonal support line. If BTC couldn't even hold this level then point 3.
3. Bitcoin will make the low of December 2018 low.
For the point 1) This is what happened the same in December 2018 the 200 Weekly Moving Average acted as support and BTC consolideted above 200 Weekly MA for a long while then a strong bullish momentum.
for point 2) In December 2018 technically RSI was in oversold zone between 37 to 29 during the consolidation phase and MACD made a bullish crossover but comparing to that now Bitcoin is not in very oversold zone yet and MACD made a bearsish crossover already near the zero line, that's a sign that bearish momentum will continue and also there another panic sell may occur due to global market crash, recession, selling presure etc.
for point 3) People will panic sell if Bitcoin cannot hold the most important diagonal support line and the price will go down till potential buyer and institutional investor strongly accumulate Bitcoin.
Most likely Bitcoin will make the December 2018 low, this is the main key level where Institutional investor will enter the market,
Bitcoin is still overpriced believe it or not, it is no way a store of value, peolpe who bought Bitcoin at very low price they overhyped it as a store of value and it has limited supply thus why Bitcoin's price will continue increasisng, this is utter rubbish. Look till now how many times Bitcoin got forked. It's easy for the people to HODL who bought it at very low price then they and the big players keep creating the hype of Bitcoin's bull run, store of value etc, etc. so, the big market makers can keep pocket in retail investor's money.
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Important : The market will very volatile these days due to global market crash and if a confirmed recession occurs. It will be safe side to stay out of the market if you don't want to lose your equity, especially from the crypto market because it is different than every market, here most of the people come to become rich in short amount of time and gamble like their money like in casino, be aware whom you listen to or whose ideas you see or read, nobody will be responsible for your profit or loss in trading, and even top chartist will end up decreasing your equity. Do your own research and calculation before investing in anything.
Bitcoin must break 8K to claim bull trend is legitHello crypto friends,
Bitcoin has shown strength recently breaking the 7.6K resistance and reaching the 8K level where met sell pressure from the bears. Now BTC have to cool down and gain fuel for the next impulse wave to the upside.
To claim that the breakout is legit , BTC needs to test the support line at 7.6K and break through 8K with next targets at 8.5K and 9K:
The importance of the 8K level lies not only in the psychological aspect of the round figure, but also in the fact that it is a Fibonacci retracement level of 0.382 from 10.5K to 6.4K.
Otherwise, an alternative scenario may play out , where Bitcoin just only tested upper boundary of the channel at the 8K level. And now has the potential for further downtrend:
What will happen next the price will tell.
This idea is not a financial advise, but you probably know that already ;)
Bitcoin in Suckers Rally ModeHello crypto friends,
Many of you have probably seen well known "Psychology of market cycle" chart where the disbelief stage precedes a new cycle. In that case many investors usually say "This is a suckers rally" . Let's figure it out.
Analyzing Bitcoin's sentiment in last months I see fear, greed and disbelief . Retail investors are hesitating to buy BTC waiting for a final capitulation to 3K or even to 1K. But we might never see these prices again. Big investors are already in. And they continue buying searching for weak hand sellers, spreading FUD through social media influencers, manipulating price on the exchanges. To limit buy big amount of BTC they have to find someone to market sell that to them. So think twice about selling your cryptos when you see a big red candle. On the other hand a $500 green candle doesn't guarantee a bull run rally to 100K in the moment. So be clever and make your own research. But that was a fundamental part of the idea where I want to message you that local bottom is somewhere around the corner. And if you are smart then you already started building your investor's portfolio.
Now lets get to the charts and look from the technical point of view. After rally from 3K to 14K we have an ABC correction completing with a C wave in its final stage. Price is moving in a big descending channel and you might noticed how price plays with middle channel line which acts as a support and resistance. Price touched that line several times from below but failed to break through. What is more there is a descending triangle pattern is forming from the end of November 2019 which usually plays out to the downside.
BTC might find a possible local bottom at the level of 5K where weekly MA200, support trend line and big volume zone are located.
What is more looking at the Fibonacci retracement levels on a log chart based on log scale (you have to manually enable this function in the settings) we can see that 0.618 Fib level was not tested yet . And BTC is sitting on 0.5 Fib level now. The reason I use log scale in this particular case is because on bigger time frames it gives more precise picture. You can see that all Fib levels were played very accurately on log scale.
0.618 is a golden Fibonacci retracement level for most BTC corrections.
Considering the above, conclusion is that Bitcoin price might break that triangle to the downside collecting fuel from stop-loses and heading to the limit buy zone where big players have their orders placed already. In light of the fact that Bitcoin halving will happen in mid May I think there won't be a long accumulation period as it was in winter 2018-2019. A V-bottom structure might leave overboard those who hesitate. So you have to be prepared in ahead because timing will play into the hands of large investors who has more data.
What will happen next the price will tell.
This idea is not a financial advise, but you probably know that already ;)
BTCUSD - Let´s be realistic, it looks bearishSince the top of June we saw a clear correction to the previous bitcoin level. With the break of the 61,8 fib-level in the area of 7.200$ we confirmed a further downmove.
Some people say it currently looks like a doublebottom but i don´t think so. It was definitely a new low and we jumped back into a boring sideways zone.
If we want to confirm a bullrun we have to break the green resistance at the area of 7.850$ and later the falling resistance line (blue).
I think the likelihood of more downside action is much bigger. The reaction rally yesterday could not create a new higher high, it was lower high. We have to be realistic
this a bearish sign. I look for a second test of 6.420$ and the area of 5.800$ - 5.600$. If we reach this levels it is time to accumulate.
Please leave a like or a comment!
Bitcoin - The bottom is in or is 4k it?Well... BTC wants us to believe that the bottom is in. We have touched the $7800 area plenty of times and it has refused to go lower -- which makes it look like a bottom. If this is it then the bottom is being built in the middle of nowhere which is out of the norm. There are a couple of places where it would make more sense to bottom out so I recommend we wait till we get there ($6500 - $7000). Also, there is no massive green candle avoiding the impending death cross so far, and the downtrend looks like it has too much momentum to be stoped. Your best bet is to wait and see how the 50/200MA crossover is going to affect price(but we know the answer to this already.) Once we see clarity we'll put our capital to work again.
Don't forget to follow me to stay one step ahead of the chaos.
Let's read what BTC is trying to tell us in this chart. The 200MA has rejected price many times in the last 3 weeks, this tells us that there is no strength to go up. Also, support is getting heavy, every rejection sends BTC down back to support and those candles are piling up quickly, support may not hold any longer. Every time you lose the 200MA on the 12H timeframe you take that as a hint that things have gone south for the corresponding asset, that happened to BTC a few weeks back and now we are seeing it on the 1D timeframe. Once the 50MA crosses down the 200MA it will seal the deal and we will see the price drop for a while. In the days after, BTC will range and spike up and range again while on its way down. Right now let's be out with cash in hand waiting for BTC to hit the $6500 - $7000 area so we can get some more cheap alts. As of today, 4k is not in play but it could be depending on how aggressive the death cross is.
NOW, THE LEGEND;
Support trendlines are green
Resistance trendlines are Red
Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support
50 Moving Average is yellow
200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Still going down but near the bottom
THE OUTLOOK: Almost safe to buy BTC but let's wait just a little more.
BTCUSD hourly watch - in a sh*tspot imo! TLTR: Short term rise before a fall to 7300 zone.
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I do not recommend buying here or selling here at current price....
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Observe fib zones
Observe direction
wait for a strong channel break
I do not like this pattern LOL
As many of you know I hold no bitcoin at this time. BUT...I will be observing zones 6300 - 7300 for a buy in once more.
Price doesn't necessarily have to head all the way to 6300.
The way I see it is..... the more people want it that way, the less likely it will happen.
Overall, for those who missed an entry in Feb around 3300 could place their bets around 7300 for close to a 1/3 discount from the ATH of 20k zone. As many will view this as a zone where they can double their money from the most recent high of 13,800 if we dive deeper with a continued second drip....observers will be on the look out for a low of 6,400 - 7,300. I give or take $100 from either side.
but should I dare say it will go lower in the future???....I don't know....but I do know many big buys jumped in around $1,800 .... and BTC is bedrock ^_^
Bitcoin - Take a look at this, seriouslyWithin the battle this will be a good little fight to watch. So leading to 8:00 PM EST, there will be a fight to drive the price down by the bears because it really does matter where this candle closes, and the bulls will try to do the same because well... it really matters where this candle closes. Why? If it closes down below resistance (the green trendline) this will be a strong candle getting rejected. The odds of the 20MA crossing the 50MA, become greater meaning if that happens we go down quite a bit. If it closes up this will be the first candle closing above the resistance line and it will also close above the 20MA which indicates a further up move. Be safe and follow me to stay ahead of the curve.
Bitcoin Yesterdays Prediction Was profit. BTC is downtrend.Easy to forget that overall trean is still descending.
Our last prediction yesterday had 2 scenarios Bitcoin chose door 1.
Bitcoin had two mirror w spikes.
Almost To end of our triangles - one remaining.
Big picture - how we started tracking Bitcoin in this last pump
whats next? > ?
Also pink area of death keeps getting higher
this is not finanacial advice.
most traders lose money.
we do not ask encourage or advise anyone to bet any money on anything.
Bitcoin: 50K end of yearJust my 2 satoshis...
Price of Bitcoin at the end of the year (Dec 31, 2019):
20K route - bullish: This is the safe bet.
50K route - very bullish: In the past Bitcoin surprised everyone in every single bull run by going up way faster as expected. Why would Bitcoin do it differently this time?
I'm going for 50K.
(Since I expect 50K and Bitcoin should surprise, I'm actually hoping for 100K+...)
Bitcoin Bull FlagShort & Sweet
This pattern is in the early stages but from what I can see price could be forming a potential bull flag. Buying at the recent lows in the flag would be optimal and holding from there should be a great long position.
Trade it however you prefer trading flag patterns.
Bitcoin May Surprise, Giving Mixed Signals.Bitcoin has a clear break of diagonal shoulder resistance on 4 hr, but still inside the right shoulder of a potential head and shoulders pattern. RSI showing nothing substantial, MACD is hinting at a move upward. Decreasing volume. Seems an even mixture of bear and bull sentiment out there, hard to read. Will wait for clear up break of head and shoulders before adding/entering. If pattern breaks down will try and catch the wick at horizontal resistance around $9720, also roughly 200 MA, to add to long term position. I believe this is start of something big and is just like the first blow off top that started the 2015 bull.
AB=CD next most important level 13500Here CD has exactly the same length as AB. In addition, it takes the market the equal time to travel from A to B as from C to D. As a Result, AB and CD have the same angle. Coincidence? i don't think so! let's see how it goes.
