Bitcoinscenarios
No double top. Excellent short opportunityHello dear followers! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! First of all I want to let all of my followers and readers know that the fact that I´m being bearish since a while and still is not filling my forecast is not a meaning of a failing TA. My last 2 ideas after 9700 last high are pointing to a retest of the neckline at around 6800, and I still firmly believe it. Things doesn´t happened as I expected, since I wanted to see a pullback to 8-8.4k levels from Saturday to Sunday and is not happened yet, however my stop loss level is at 9850 and we had many swing movements since then. Anyway no analysis on the face of this earth, can tell you whether or not a formation is going to breakout or fail with 100% probabilities, that´s is not working in this world. All is about profit ratio and chances of reaching targets and the short opportunity that I´m forecasting here has an awesome profit ratio.
So let´s get right to what´s matters. Looking at the 2 days chart you can see how Bitcoin has formed a gorgeous ascending channel which has encountered huge resistance in a key point, log line + 0.618 fibo + kumo retracement point. All this factors together made that point impassable, and here we are, bouncing on the ascending channel and retesting the log line with bounces in specific day fibo levels. On the other hand the price has clearly found support in the 200 EMA but I´ve seen it many times, and after a few days, failing and resuming the downtrend.
Again some of you may ask yourselves how my main downtrend line is still intact, while many TA´s here shows other thing, and that is just because I´m using logarithmic chart and I ignored the wicks in the 1 and 2 days chart. 4 hours chart is useful for day trading, while higher charts are way more powerful for medium and long term vision. Wicks in 1 and 2 logarithmic charts are not taken into consideration.
While my take on Bitcoin is another retest of the neckline around 6800, we will see many swing opportunities to go long. If you see the fibo levels that I drawn, pay attention to all of them, since we will have a profitable bounces on those levels. Which is the first one to bounce? Most probably the 0.5 at 8100 will act as a good support to see a probably retest of the log line at 9-9.1k but we could see also a rejection at around 8500, I´ll be alert during those levels.
Any time Bitcoin goes down, any other alt follows it path, so this time is not going to be different. Yes we had an incredible bull run on many of them, and this year we will see uuuuuge profits from entering alts at the right time. Just be cautious when entering because there will be nice retraces on many of them during these days. A rebound of the price at 6800 will bring an incredible point to start entering alts, but as long Bitcoin is in a range like now, we will see some alts still skyrocketing, just take care!
There is a few rumours about institutional money entering this space, and most probably is true, the question is when is coming into the game. Those 21 billion of the many tweets we are seeing could be real and the entry on the market would be unexpected, so pay attention guys to the breakout of the log line at any level, because that will bring a nice bull run. The 6800 bounce will be quite powerful and it could be the point where big money will start entering this space, however just be alert, since we could suffer a deeper dip to 5800-4400 ranges, I doubt it but you never knows.
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Bitcoin Alternative Chart March.30/18This is a chart set-up I had around January. It has honestly held up pretty well. I've updated it to chart the next month or so and changed the colour scheme. Crucial moments here for Bitcoin. If the previous low does not hold up, it's possible we could fall to the 4000 and 3000 level. I am expecting a bounce followed by an attack at the Kijun as we previously saw around 03/05 and 03/22. If there is a breach of the Kijun at that point, I expect an attack at the Kumo itself. The chart must be re-assessed at that point.
It's important to also take note of the falling wedge forming since 03/05. Previously, a smaller falling wedge beginning on 02/20 broke out for a ~27% gain. Being a larger falling wedge, we can expect a much higher recovery.
RSI is approaching the same oversold levels as previous bounce in Feb.
Cautiously long at support levels.
Let's wait and see.
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AB = CD harmonics would imply iH&S within A&E (target $13150)AB = CD harmonics would complete right shoulder of inverse Head and Shoulder pattern.
Confluence of support in the $8150-8550 area:
- volume profile POC
- 1 day 20 SMA
- long-term log trend line (dotted)
- reload zone (0.618-0.786 Fib)
If iH&S is completed, it would imply target of $13 150, which would complete Adam & Eve double bottom with target of $15 600.
Bitcoin did not breakout yetHello and welcome to my Ichimoku Bitcoin Analysis! In these last 2 weeks I have committed the great mistake of not paying attention to the 2 days timeframe. That tf is the one leading the path of Bitcoin so far, and it keep will doing it for around 2 more weeks. In my last post I said that around 9460 I will forget any bear idea and I will go heavy loaded in Bitcoin, and I did it, but after the drop, retest of the last high and a further drop, I just realised that another scenario could be happening, so I closed my position again. Almost every trader here was yelling ¨We have breakout!" a few days ago, but in fact if you draw the log line ignoring the wicks, you will get to the conclusion that we haven´t break the log line yet. It was fun to see how all the alts just stopped growing a few hours before Bitcoin went to his last high at 7030, know why? Simple, whales did sell off to load their shorts in Bitcoin, so it is a set up plan that will be repeating itself over and over again.
Why we just had that huge drop in a matter of an hour? We have touched an important 0.618 level and also the kumo is giving just today its first bear signal. All of us knew that a correction was coming sooner than later, so here we are, droping for aprox 2 more weeks.
Will this fall drag the alts? Most probably, so be ready to go heavy in the alts of your preference in the next bounce, because is gonna be mad.
My theory fails and we go back high? Then the price will start looking to retest the big resistance at 11766. I´ll protect my short position with a buy order at 9900.
Btw, today we had the first real breakout in the 5 min chart since 2 days ago!
Good luck!
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Bitcoin long term visionHello and welcome to my ichimoku Bitcoin analysis! As I predicted a few days ago, Bitcoin is facing a hard resistance around the 9060 mark. I even expected to try the 9175 last high resistance, but the price it wasn´t strong enough to even touch it, so that makes a drop scenario more powerful. Ichimoku 1 day cloud brings new supports starting from 7800, but in my opinion that level wont be tough enough to hold it, so my take is that we are going to around 7500 mark, which is the .618 fibo level. If that support also fail, then the price will be driven to the 7100 area, but if that happens we will see the price targeting again 6k. I don´t think that will happen, at least not now. Institutional smart money is coming long on Bitcoin, that makes think that 7500 will be the lower support for now.
If we have a look at the 2017/2018 fractal, you can see how is playing a very similar game like the 2014 crash. History repeat itself over and over again, why now it should be different? Now we have an increase of the adoption rate + institutional money + increasing industry around, but that´s not necessarily meaning that we are going to take a moonshot from right this point. The 11500 area will play a crucial role in near future of Bitcoin, and most likely, big whales will take this point as a another stage to buy cheaper coins, and together with the 2014 fractal, gives me an idea that we could bounce and go down hard again, but that scenario have to be proven yet. That´s why I marked that area in black, because there is no any guarantees yet of the price going up or down.
However the alts will embrace soon an spectacular skyrocketing race, and I expect that to happen from the next bounce of Bitcoin, and if I´m right it could will start happening in around 10-12 days. Anyway, ETH and some others could remain growing while Bitcoin start falling during the first days of the fall, let´s see.
Thanks for watching my idea and have a safe trading!
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Bitcoin. 2 hours to the revelationHi and welcome to my ichimoku analysis of our beloved Bitcoin! Actually the lines that I draw yesterday in my daily chart was the most optimistic vision of the price for today. If you have followed my updates, you´ll see that I interpreted the downtrend before it happened. I´m giving very detailed updates with exact support and resistances, and so far it has been followed to the T.
With all this said, let´s get to what matter, today. I´m seeing reversed patterns everywhere in most of the charts, that´s is clear bear sign. The market has shown big resistance at 8815 in the 15 min chart as you can see here:
Not breaking a resistance in a small chart like the 15 min is another sign of weakness by the bulls, so I also predicted more drops from the point where the price is in this chart.
We kissed the main trendline in a very shy mood, but that is not meaning that we will touch it again, in fact I´m positive that we will. I´m not expecting a hard penetration of the trendline for next test, but if the bulls don´t show more power, the third test could be the one that will make it.
We are 2 hours from seeing what the market will decide. If in the 1 hour chart (the candle that will be formed in a couple of hours), the price retrace and don´t make it up, that will be another big reversed pattern, which will bring more drops, the touch of the trendline and the possible breakout. A breakout at that level will be terrible for Bitcoin, be alert.
I´ll give updates often, have a safe trading!
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Bitcoin - $9100 Target Remains In ProgressHello Traders,
I hope everybody is doing good.
As Bitcoin made a significant move this month. I want to share with you my 4-hour view on this crypto.
With the recent move up last week, Bitcoin was able to break the trendline from end 2017. It managed to close above the trendline with a daily close. This was the first indication that more upside in bitcoin can be seen.
However, keep in mind that a trendline break is insignificant. Because trendlines are only useful when you combine them with other technical tools. You can see in the chart, that after it managed to break the trendline, it consolidated in a sideways pattern between 8492.7 peaks and 7810.2 low. In great confluence the 200 moving average and the 50-moving average where able cross and have now been showing to the upside, which is a good indication for more upside. Today, bitcoin managed to break above the resistance zone of 8492.7 now acting as new support, opening extension higher.
It has confirmed now in my view that it will trade to at least the 50% Fibonacci retracement. From that area, it should produce a pullback. Whether it has already the bottom at 5970 in place, needs to be seen. In this short-term view, I think the odds are for a move to at least 9100 areas before a pullback should occur.
Either the market now rallies in an impulsive manner to the upside without any pullback, like it did last week, or we could see a small pullback before the next leg higher should be seen. If bitcoin stays in the price above 7810.2 low, it ideally should extend higher. This view will be invalid once it breaks 7810.2.
Recap the 2 possibilities :
- First one is the black one (drawn on the chart) We could see a short-term pullback before the next leg higher can be seen.
- Or the second one (orange line) Bitcoin rallies to the upside without any significant correction. But at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement (9103.5) We should get a pullback in either case.
This view will be invalid once it breaks 7810.2 support.
I hope you enjoyed this view. In the coming days, I will present you my view von Bitcoin in the higher timeframes. So you can see what I am looking at.
Disclaimer : Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view present is not a trading recommendation just personal view.
Bitcoin: potential iH&S within A&E double bottom(target @$15600)There is a potential Inverse Head & Shoulders within larger Adam & Eve double bottom developing for #Bitcoin
TARGETS:
Inverse Head & Shoulders target =~ $11 900
Adam & Eve double bottom target* =~ $15 600 (or 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $15 365)
*only IF we break through $11800 resistance & bullishly resolve the 0.386 Fibonacci retracement, I’d expect us to blast through the volume profile gap ($11800-13500 range). After that, I would start looking for shorts in the ‘’reload zone’’ between 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement ($14600-16900 range) before potential slow decline below $5000 later this year.
In case we do not bullishly resolve the 0.386 Fibonacci retracement, I would also expect a slow decline below $5000 before another bullish cycle begins.
Bitcoin - A Nice Move Higher but What Comes Next?Bitcoin, where are you headed next? Over the last four days, Bitcoin has made a nice move higher and after a few attempts Bitcoin finally broke out above the long-term downtrend trend line.
So how important is this break above the trend line? In my opinion, it is somewhat important but does not mean it can't still go lower, Bitcoin could still reverse course and move lower and still remain above the trend line.
You can see that during the 2013/2014 boom and correction cycle the price of Bitcoin interacted many times with the downtrend trend line, both above and below while still moving lower.
On March 31st I published charts showing how I thought this boom and correction cycle shared similarities to the 2013/2014 boom and correction cycle. In it, I showed how if this boom and correction cycle equals the percentage drop of 2014, Bitcoin would bottom somewhere between $2000 and $4000. No matter what happens from here, it will be very interesting to watch how this correction unfolds.
I look at the price action of Bitcoin lately as a start of the bottoming process, again, I'm not saying the bottom has already been made, but just that this is a start of that process. In my opinion, at some point, we will see the price of Bitcoin transition from the downtrend and into an accumulation phase, just as it did during 2014 correction. On my chart, I show a support zone from about $6000 to $6500, Bitcoin has now bounced twice from that level. I also show a resistance zone around the $9000 level, which Bitcoin is now approaching. Could this be the start of the accumulation phase? Sure, I believe it could, we could see Bitcoin move sideways from here creating a channel between $6000 and $9000. Could Bitcoin still break below $6000 and create a bottom at a lower price? Sure it could. I know, I'm sorry, I wish I could tell you with 100% certainty that $6000 was the bottom and Bitcoin will only move higher fom here but I would rather be honest with you and just share what I believe are some of the possible scenarios.
So after all of that what is my outlook for cryptocurrencies? Long-term I remain bullish, my opinion is that this is just another boom and correction cycle just like Bitcoin has experienced in the past. I think this correction is just a healthy reset and after a period of accumulation (boring phase), Bitcoin along with other cryptocurrencies will enter another bull market. I have just started within the last week to make some small purchases of Bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, Monero, NEO, OMG, UBIQ, CVC). My plan is to be patient because as I stated, I believe we are going to move into an accumultion phase at some point which will give me plenty of time to rebuild my positions.
I really appreciate you taking the time to read my opinions and I hope you all have a great rest of your weekend.
BigskyCrypto
Anyone with questions or comments can also email me at: info@bigskycrypto.com
Bitcoin Scenario AnalysisBTC is trying to break the broken Trendline on upside. Next TopSide Resistance is 8450, which if holds than we will be pushed back 8000 & 7700 Area. The Downward Trendline is broken now and is acting as a support. Current Area around 8200 is also a resistance. If we get rejected from here than aim to go back 7600 Area,
On topside 8600-8900 Area is a major resistance with 200 DMA, 50 DMA, 13 Weekly Ma & Mulitple Rejected Zones resides.. But the Major battle zone has notwmoved to 9550-9800 Area. Thats a Make it or break it for Bulls. If we break 8450 convincingly than next stop 8589, 8900, 9179 before final Target 9550-9800 Area on topside. On Bottom, 7150 is now strong Support. Other support includes 7475-7516 Area. Expect one large Dip candle to reset levels.
BITCOIN BTC AT END OF MARKET CORRECTION? TOM LEE THINKS SO!US households owe $25 billion in taxes on cryptocurrencies, analyst Tom Lee estimates - headlines of April 5-6
"Lee still sees bitcoin nearly tripling to $20,000 by the middle of this year, and rising further to $25,000 by year-end." - Tom Lee CNBC Interview
Chart is self explanatory as always - if you have reasonable questions, comment them below please!
Invest only what you can afford to lose or you're going right back to poverty on drop. We are not your financial advisors.
Bitcoin Long Investing (pattern update)Pattern is still intact. This is bearish for bitcoin.. but since the pattern is getting smaller and smaller.. it means it will come to an end soon. After the next double top (soft shoulder) there will be another large leg down... but that could be the last one..
If you want a bitcoin bull-run.. then you would want this leg down to only go to 6k... if it goes below that.. its very possible it could break 5k as well.. which could leave room for this pattern to continue.
The chances is bitcoin breaking the pattern at the top here.. is very unlikely. 8k is a huge resistance that I do not see BTC breaking at this current time.
Hold on to your butts.. this is going to be a bumpy ride.
BTC - Dissecting Boom & Correction CyclesI decided to examine a previous boom & correction cycle Bitcoin has gone through to get an insight into how the price reacted over time and also to compare that cycle to the current boom and correction cycle.
I was going to call the cycle’s boom & bust cycles but I don't like the word bust, my definition of bust is when something crashes and never regains its previous stature. That is like the word bubble, to me when something is in a bubble and it bursts, that's it, it never returns. Just like a real bubble when you pop it, it's gone. Right or wrong that is just how I look at it, I prefer to just say something has run up too far and is way overvalued, not in a bubble.
Okay, sorry I got a little sidetracked, on with the examination. I have to say I found some interesting similarities between the two corrections.
Before I start I want to add that the line chart doesn't really line up too good at times with the price scale due to very quick spikes lower that occurred on 12/18 and 2/25 which the line chart does not pick up, I am using the cursor to determine the prices for each day (high or low). Also, I am using the Bitfinex price chart.
Looking at the chart we can see that BTC peaked at $1175 on 12/4/2013, it then suffered a 68% correction which it hit the low of on 12/18 ($381.50). Following that low, there was a nice bounce which peaked on 1/6/2014, but BTC could not hold those gains and the price once again dropped down to $400 on 2/25, thus re-testing the low set on 12/18. BTC bounced again but this time it was short lived and the price dropped setting a new low of $340 on 4/11.
We can see that there was another bounce but then over the next several months the price slowly kept dropping until it hit a low of $166 on 1/14/2015.
There was then a period of 7 months where the price was basically sideways and on 8/18/2015 the price hit $162, re-testing the low set on 1/14. Not too long after that low the price of BTC began to increase again and has not hit that low since.
So from peak to the first low set on 1/14/2015 was a little over 13 months. The accumulation phase that followed I would estimate lasted over 10 months culminating with a breakout above $300 on 10/28/2015.
Examining the current boom & correction we can see that BTC hit an all-time high of $19,891 on 12/17/2017 followed by a correction down to $6000 (70% drop) which it hit on 2/6/2018. Following that low, BTC had a nice bounce but could not hold the gains and again dropped to where we are today, it actually hit a low of $6533 yesterday (3/30/2018). What I find interesting but may be totally meaningless is that during the 2014 correction the time interval between the 12/18 low and the re-test on 2/25 was a little over 2 months. Now look at the current correction, we had the low set on 2/6 and we are now approaching 2 months later and may soon be witnessing the re-test of that low. Also, I find it interesting how close the percentage drops were 68% in 2013 compared to 70% this time. Again, I find these things interesting but hey I am easily amused.
So where does BTC go from here? I wish I knew, if I did I could make a fortune. It will be very interesting though to see if BTC follows the 2013/2014 correction further.
So just for fun lets say it does, both in time and the correction percentage. That would mean we would bottom sometime towards the end of this year or beginning of 2019. Then enter a correction phase which would last severl months before another bull market begins.
Of course, another scenario could be that we see a similar percentage drop but in a shortened time frame, possibly hitting bottom in a matter of a couple of months from now say like May or June. We then enter the accumulation phase for several months then enter another bull market later this year or early in 2019.
Bitcoin: Should You Buy Now?Bouncing off of strong support, BTC should head to 7600-8050-8270-9150-9750 levels from here. A decisive close above each level mentioned would make the up-move stronger. If BTC breaks above 9750 in the upcoming weeks we may see the rejuvenation to 14500. Until we get a decisive close below 6000 we are safe to buy and stay invested.
Still forming inside the band}, 2 different forecast within it.Could help in finding next buy & sell moments.
Return of Cyclone 2Cyclone 1 started on 17-12-2018, we're seeing the same cyclone 2 already started from 5-3-2018
There are technical analysis and indicators too here, but not included.
What I see is further down, because BULLS are not capable of creating new resistance level, and are making new lower highs.
$7724 is critical breakdown point, if its broken we are down and great opportunity to buy.
Experiencing last few weekends, danger is coming.
BTC - My Bearish OutlookOkay, this is my bearish scenario for BTC, I already published my bullish outlook. I know, these are about as polar opposite as an outlook could be but I just didn't want to publish a rainbows and unicorns view without at least showing
an alternative. It is also very possible that there could be a third possibility, something in between where BTC just meanders in a more sideways pattern for an extended period (weeks or months).
In my opinion for this bearish outlook to play out, several things would have to happen first. We would first have to see BTC break below my long-term trendline, followed by a drop to test the Feb. 6th low, followed by a failure of
the Feb. 6th low leading to a stair-stepped drop to a support level that finally holds, followed by an extended consolidation period.
I know this is a pretty dark view but I don't think it is out of the question, I like to acknowledge all possibilities.
Bitcoin - My Bullish OutlookFirst, I should make it clear that I don't have any idea where the price of BTC will be in the next 2 - 3 months. I hope that it will be higher but I am also aware that it could and ready if it does move substantially lower.
I don't think it is out of the question that we could see a prolonged period (weeks, months) of lower prices and consolidation.
But having said that this chart is looking at a bullish outlook for BTC. I like that BTC is still above my long-term trendline, a close substantially below would obviously not be a good sign and in my opinion, could signal a drop to possibly re-test the low of Feb. 6th. (I will be publishing another chart with a more bearish outlook). But as long as BTC stays above my long-term trendline I will remain more bullish than bearish.
It looks to me as though BTC may be forming an ascending triangle pattern which usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern but will occasionally form at the end of a downtrend as a reversal pattern.
What I will be watching for will be for BTC to remain above my long-term trendline, stay above the 200 SMA and eventually also push above the 100 SMA.
One thing that concerns me is the massive bearish volume that we saw recently (possibly the MT. Gox trustee dumping BTC), however on the positive side even with all of that volume BTC still held above my trendline.
Key Moments for BTC, The Daily Update on BTC you can rely onHey Friends and Followers, BTC pushed into some crucial areas as the market looks on.
Well Monday morning US really did provide us with a bit of a bump, and not in our preferred direction of up.
We have seen sustained selling and are now below my support trendline and have had a daily close just below the line. This is very Bearish and would have me changing to a BEARISH bias if it wasn’t for the 200ema (The Green line) on the 4 H chart sitting straight below. For me right now direction is NEUTRAL until I get a 4 H close above the support trendline (Red line) or below the 200 EMA.
A close below the 200 EMA would bring 9750 back into focus, while a close above the old Support line would have us looking back at, our resistance Trendline around 11450, and then back towards 11750. At the moment we are in the triangle between the Red line sloping up and the Black line slopping down, with the 200EMA 4H, giving a little space to the downside. A clear break of the Triangle in either direction is our next hint of direction.
Even after the break of the Triangle I will be a little cautious while I wait for direction to be clearer here for me. If I have to look in my crystal Ball and pick a direction it would be up, for reasons I will post in my next BTC piece on BTC Fundamentals.
This is of course the range my first ever analysis piece said we might spend some time in. Still I have expected a better test if the top side by now and will watch with interest.
So what Drives BTC price, what is the KEY FUNDAMENTALWelcome followers and friends to a new opinion piece on BTC and what’s effecting its price. I hope you enjoy and get some great value form it. Market overviews are an important part of Technical Trading.
So conventional currencies are based around Economic fundamentals. Things like Inflation and Growth drive them with Fundamental traders leading the way and Technical Traders like us following along. BTC isn’t a conventional currency, so what drives its price?
I think there are two things and they are having a big effect on the market right now. While BTC is trading very technically overall and has been quite easy to predict if you watch our daily analysis. There is something that surprises me, something I think needs investigating, and something that may explain what the fundamental driver of BTC is. Each time we put in a new high, and expect acceleration, we get brutal selling. (The red arrows show selling of the highs). Just when we should be pushing up, we come back. Why is that happening so consistently?
I think who is in, who owns BTC, and where they brought is a principle driver to BTC price and especially pullback at the moment. For the majority of last year, wherever you had brought you had made money, and probably wanted to buy more. We have all heard the stories of ordinary people making huge money from BTC. People were fighting to get in and grab the easy profits.
But since December last year its changed.
There are a lot of people who brought at current levels and above, and as price fell they have been trapped in. The choice to sell and take a previously unconsidered brutal loss, or hold and hope for the bounce back. Many who held will tell you its skill, but most of these are uneducated investors who have just froze, hoped and probably prayed for price to come back up. I think each time we put in a new High, we see more of them no longer trapped in a big loss, getting back around breakeven and getting out.
It’s a concern for BTC from two points.
Firstly, there are plenty more still trapped in big losing positions and waiting for a chance to get out. If this is true these guys have been scared half to death watching their money disappear and are going to get out no matter what when they are back around Breakeven. They will welcome us at every level on the way up and will slow the journey back up considerably.
Secondly these guys aren’t coming back. These guys won’t be buying back in latter, they are a generation of BTC owners who are leaving and not coming back. BTC will need to find new buyers to replace them and these new buyers have seen a big pullback and won’t be as likely to emotionally charge in based on greed. I think this will be partly balanced by the number of people coming in to trade BTC. It’s good to trade and not only from exchanges, but on Leveraged Forex Brokers allowing people to trade both ways more easily.
Personally I don’t think this will stop the march up on BTC, but it may slow it. Hope you have enjoyed.
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This is already long so I will post about the second Fundamental in the next few days.
