Bitcoin Final stage of a Wyckoff Distribution schematicTLDR:
• IMO, Bitcoin is in the final stage of a Wyckoff distribution phase. From here we can expect the price to drop to roughly 24K.
• Confirmation: Daily close below the upward-sloping trendline with a retest as resistance.
• Invalidation: Daily close above 29.5K with a retest as support, followed by a HH.
My Friends.
• Let me begin by writing that I have no intention of spreading FUD. Consider my opinion as a possibility. A fellow trader and your friend is sharing his opinion. If I am correct, Bitcoin, and the whole crypto market, is going to dump, hard. If I am wrong, I provided my invalidation points, and you lose almost nothing by being patient.
• My notion is that Bitcoin is in the final stage of a Wyckoff distribution schematic. From here we can expect a correction. Maybe even as low as 24K.
What is Distribution?
• The distribution phase is a period of sideways price movement. During this phase, the MM is keeping the asset’s price in a tight range and exerts sell pressure to prevent the price from breaking above the range high. The MM’s intention is to sell high and drop the price down to buy back again for cheap.
• The clue that helped me realize that we are in distribution was the sharp move above the range high on July 13th followed by a sharp decrease in price on July 14th. This move in Wyckoff terminology is called Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD).
• Every swing up in price after the Upthrust is called the Last Point of Supply (LPSY). Meaning that the MM is raising the price sharply to lure traders to buy and then, drops the price sharply.
Other Clues:
Alts:
• IMO, the altcoin market is giving away the MM’s lie. While Bitcoin did make a HH, the alts, mainly ETH did a LH. It makes me think that Bitcoin’s HH was just an overshooting wave B. I am not an EW specialist, but wave B is a corrective wave moving up. This is exactly what we had seen in Bitcoin’s price. A sharp move up to lure traders to buy, followed by a month-long range to distribute Bitcoins supply.
Example ETH:
Volume:
• Volume is another giveaway. Look at the volume. We see sharp spikes of buying pressure followed by heavy sell pressure. Overall, volume is declining.
Bearish Divergence:
• During this distribution range, bitcoin formed bearish divergences on the weekly and daily charts. A Bearish Divergence is a sign of exhaustion. It signals that the uptrend is losing steam and a pullback is due.
Weekly Bearish Divergence:
Daily Bearish Divergence:
50D EMA:
• The 50D EMA is my marker of the trend. Whenever Bitcoin drops below the 50D EMA. You can expect the price to continue lower (linked TV idea).
Blackrock ETF:
• If you think that BlackRock is coming to the rescue, just think: What is more likely? That BlackRock will buy high to sell higher? Or, that BlackRock will dump the whole market to buy cheap and then sell high?
Pullback Targets:
• ATM I need more clarity. It is not yet certain that I am correct. If the price drops below the upward-sloping trendline, I will do my best to provide you with targets.
• My tentative target is the 0.382 Fib retracement for the whole move up at roughly 24K.
Invalidation:
• Daily close above 29.5K after retesting as support.
• HH, above 31.8K.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
