Bitcoin Short - Did You Sell Your Car Yet?Based on fib time as well as cracking the prior swing high and turning degens into full bull mode I expect some nasty pullback.
Bitcoinshort
You might be too optimistic about #BTC!Investors are hopeful that risk assets like Bitcoin could see strong gains if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points instead of the previously anticipated 25 basis points.
However, Bank of America (BofA) urges caution. They recommend not overreacting to any initial market reaction after the Federal Reserve's September meeting. According to BofA, the real focus should be on the Fed’s dot plot, which could have a bigger impact than the actual rate cut.
BofA expects the Fed’s dot plot to show higher interest rate expectations than what the market is currently predicting. Despite this, they believe Fed Chair Jerome Powell will maintain a more cautious, or "dovish," tone in his comments.
What is the dot plot?
The dot plot is a chart that shows where each Federal Reserve member thinks interest rates will be in the coming years. Each dot represents one member’s view. It's a useful guide for understanding where the Fed members sees interest rates in the future.
BTC 2018 & 2021 FLASH CRASH WARNING (IN 2024)Make your own decisions, but the chart and Market Cipher shows there is a high chance we will drop hard because there is a high risk of bearish divergence on BTC 6W Chart. Same like in 2018 Bitcoin price crash.
Safe trading!
BTC - TWO Theories - ELLIOT Wave vs FRACTALElliot Wave Theory is an absolute favorite of mine, combined with Wyckoff Method and chart analysis (trendlines and technical indicators). If you've been following; you'll know I've been speaking of a multi-month cycle, specifically a multi month corrective wave before the final impulse wave up (4-5).
Considering we're still in that corrective phase, let's take a look at TWO options from here:
Option 1 , is we retrace around -50%, same as last time. However, this would pose an issue - if we drop lower than (1), it invalidates the Elliot Wave Theory, and also invalidates the bullish cycle. The second problem, is that the previous cycle's increase (2-3) was MUCH bigger than the current 2-3 we are observing. This brings us to option 2.
Option 2 , is that we retrace around the same ratio as the previous cycle. To calculate the ration, we need to see what % we retraced and compare it to the % increase.
We increased 1533.92% (2-3)and retraced 55.25% (3-4). That means it's a 3.6% correction compared to the increase.
For the current cycle, we increased 357.27% (2-3) and retraced 33.76% (3-4). This gives us a 9,45% correction - three times as much as the previous cycle.
You can take this two ways - either we're following a 50% correction, OR we're not falling lower than the current point 4 which is around $49K.
Share your thoughts!
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin Collapse Underway -75% ProbableBitcoin is collapsing, it will go deep.
As of right now, I am looking for AT LEAST a -75% selloff, with the expectation that we will soon test the 2018 price level.
This thing might be wiped out entirely.
I really don't have much else to say.
Good luck everyone.
Building resistance in 58K level, possible SHORT lays aheadHi fellow traders,
Bitcoin DERIBIT:BTCUSD.P is declining a bit and making a nice downwards structure on the 1H frame. What we can see is building resistance on the 58K level.
We can see that the short-term foresight shows a possible resistance in the form of a trend-line rejection. Additionally, a possible rejection from the exponential moving average (50 period) lies in the same area of interest.
That building tension gives us a SHORT possibility whenever rejection is confirmed on a lower timeframe, looking forward to that sweet price-action :)
Happy Trading ^^
Friday Market Update - $IBIT, $BTC, $DXY and $SOL ForecastHere's a quick update to the video I posted last week showing a final unfilled Gap on the 4-Hour NASDAQ:IBIT likely pushing price down (We're NOT sure yet how this is correlated, other than the BIG money is playing with Options / Futures and now the NASDAQ:IBIT , which makes Bitcoin a Wall Street product now essentially.
My targets on Bitcoin now are $57k and I'm thinking we may even see a 'news driven' selloff to the $50k - GETTEX:52K range into our buy blocks as shown here.
"Show me the charts, I'll tell you the news" is one of my mantras, and with everyone thinking we go higher here, I'm thinking we have one more shakeout to wipe out some longs.
Last week a well-known short posted that he 'gave in and the Bulls Win' showing his $2.5M loss.
Think the games are over? I think not.
So I'm mostly out of the market, holding some SOL and planning to DCA buy lower at levens I mention in the video.
I also dicuss the DXY bounce, Total Market Cap, and why this weekly candle close is important.
Apologies -- the recording stopped when I tried to update one of my alerts, and I have a Labor Day party to finish planning so no time to-record it.
Have a great weekend everyone, and let's see what Tuesday brings when the big Wall Street traders get back from summer vacation and start putting wall-street money to work.
Bitcoin Chances of dropping from 59,000 so better to SellThe trend of bitcoin shows that its more interested to drop from 59,000 series today.
so better idea to go for Sell today as of now.
BTC remains bearish next targets 57.7k and 56kIn this video, I provide an update on my previous trading analysis.
I'll discuss the current targets for the bearish scenario and highlight the key levels to watch. Additionally, I present a bullish counter-idea and explain where the invalidation of the bearish thesis might occur. This way, you'll be well-prepared no matter which direction the market takes. Stay tuned to catch all the important details!
Breakout or breakdown? I'm SHORT here is whyHi fellow traders,
In this idea I have drawn daily supply and demand zones, although the zones of interest exist out of large ranges I think the combination of approaching both a long- and short-term supply zone and a forming rising wedge we are looking at a rejection from the 1h supply zone level.
I will wait on the lower timeframe to confirm the rejection, ideally have a bounce of the bottom of the rising wedge acting as resistance.
What do you think? Are we going to breakdown or breakout?
Happy trading ^^
Amendment by the beginning of 2028 to the range of $30,000Amendment by the beginning of 2028 to the range of $30,000
BTC SHORT TO 41kTrade Rationale:
Price has reached a significant resistance level, and there is a clear bearish structure indicating potential downside movement. The current setup offers a high risk/reward ratio, targeting a return to the previous low, with a stop loss placed just above the recent high.
This trade is based on a continuation of the bearish trend observed over the past several weeks.
BTC might dump to 41k (Black Swan)Market Maker Sell Model Analysis | Potential Short Targets
Description:
In this video, I dive deep into the Market Maker Sell Model and discuss potential short targets. We'll explore how Market Makers build their positions during a downward move and how you can effectively capitalize on these movements to trade profitably.
Watch the video and let me know your thoughts or any questions you may have in the comments!
Bitcoin Faces Strong Resistance: Will It Drop to $57,157?I'm still bearish on Bitcoin. We're facing strong resistance at $60,000, and while Bitcoin is currently at a support level of $59,400 and showing some upward momentum, I don't believe it will break through $61,158. I expect the strong resistance at $60,000 will lead to another rejection, potentially bringing the price back down to $57,157.
Bitcoin’s 15-Minute Chart: Key Levels and Potential Drop ZonesOn the 15-minute chart for Bitcoin on Binance, the price needs to break through the Fibonacci 0.382 level to maintain bullish momentum. If Bitcoin fails to surpass this level, it may drop to the $54,000 support area. We're not out of the woods just yet.
BTC/USD: Critical Breakdown and Bearish OutloookThe COINBASE:BTCUSD daily chart continues displaying a significant bearish sentiment.
Key Technical Points:
Support Levels:
1. Target 1: The price has reached the first target around $48,000.
2. Target 2: If the bearish momentum continues, the next support is around $36,000.
Support Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: Previous support at $52,000 is now acting as support.
Moving Averages:
- 200 EMA: The price has broken below the 200 EMA, a bearish signal indicating potential further declines.
Bull Flag Potential:
- Descending Channel failed: The price is within a descending channel, typically a continuation pattern. A breakout above the channel could signal a reversal to the upside, but currently, the trend remains bearish.
Outlook:
- Bearish Continuation: The break below the 200 EMA and reaching Target 1 support around $48,000 indicates a bearish continuation. The next potential target is $36,000, where significant support lies.
Conclusion:
BTC is currently bearish, breaking below crucial support levels and the 200 EMA. Watch for any signs of a breakout from the descending channel for a potential reversal, but the immediate outlook remains bearish with the next target at $36,000.
Pay close attention to btcWith the fed meeting saying that rates will remain unchanged i think this is bullish for the DXY and it goes opposite with btc too, considering that and the fact that we got rejected on 70k with a hard rejection, furthermore we might need to consider additional things.
Geo politics can have a great impact on BTC as we have seen how it dipped when iran responded previously.
Now that the prominent hamas head has been killed in iranian soil, iran is bound to strike back as revenge and this time it will be far worse.
my advice is to sell your holdings and buy the dip for a better position onwards.
Good luck!!
Bitcoin Analysis Saturday, July 6, 20241. Current Situation
Bitcoin is experiencing a significant downturn, reaching levels not seen since February. The primary concern is how much further it can drop, with potential for a short-term bounce.
4. Current Price Action and Short-term Projections
- Bitcoin has already seen a 25% move to the downside from its recent high.
- Short-term projections suggest Bitcoin could drop further, with the downside target between $45,000 and $47,000.
6. Potential Scenarios
- **Best-case Scenario**: Bitcoin finds support around $45,000 to $47,000.
- **Worst-case Scenario**: Bitcoin drops below $40,000, potentially to $39,000.
7. Time Frame Analysis
- Average time to find the next major low based on historical data is 36 days from the last high.
- Currently, Bitcoin is around day 30 of this cycle, suggesting more downside movement is likely.
8. Short-term Bounce Potential
- Bitcoin is resting on the 55 exponential moving average on the five-day timeframe, hinting at a possible short-term relief rally.
- Short-term bounce targets could be around $55,000 to $56,000, but likely short-lived.
10. Conclusion and Recommendations
- The overall trend is still to the downside.
- Short-term bounces are possible but should not be mistaken for a trend reversal.
- Long-term investors should be cautious and consider potential further drops.
12. Market Sentiment
- Generally bearish, with technical indicators pointing to further downside.
19. Support and Resistance Levels
- **Support**: Around $45,000 to $47,000.
- **Resistance**: Around $56,000.
Final Thoughts
The Analysis emphasizes caution for Bitcoin holders, highlighting the potential for further downside despite short-term bounce possibilities. Long-term support levels around $45,000 to $47,000 are crucial, with a worst-case scenario possibly seeing Bitcoin below $40,000. Investors are advised to stay vigilant and consider the broader bearish sentiment.
The Trump Trade - Inverted BTC#mythoughts
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, former President Donald Trump's staunch support for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem is shaking up the political and financial landscapes. Trump's pro-crypto stance, which marks a stark contrast to his previous skepticism, is expected to have a significant impact on the prices of BTC and other digital assets in the coming months.
Trump's recent speech at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville outlined his ambitious plans to make the U.S. the "Bitcoin superpower of the world" and the "crypto capital" of the globe. His pledges, if implemented, could significantly reshape the regulatory environment for the crypto industry. Key elements of Trump's crypto agenda include:
1. Firing SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office, signaling a more industry-friendly approach to regulation
2. Forming a crypto advisory council to provide expert guidance on crafting crypto-friendly policies
3. Holding a strategic national stockpile of Bitcoin, with the U.S. government currently owning over 200,000 BTC
4. Commuting the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the creator of the Silk Road marketplace, who is serving a life sentence for his involvement with the platform
Trump's embrace of crypto is expected to attract a significant number of BTC holders and miners to his campaign, both in terms of political support and financial contributions. As a result, many analysts predict that BTC prices could experience a significant rally in the coming months, potentially reaching new all-time highs.
However, some market participants are positioning themselves for a potential correction in BTC prices leading up to the election. The recent launch of Asia's first inverse Bitcoin ETF by CSOP Asset Management in Hong Kong suggests that some investors are betting on a potential decline in BTC prices .
The inverse BTC ETF, which allows investors to profit from a decrease in BTC prices, could be a hedge against the potential volatility in the crypto markets as the election approaches. The launch of this product in Hong Kong, a major financial hub, underscores the global interest in the U.S. election and its potential impact on the crypto space.
It's important to note that the "Trump Trade" is not limited to BTC alone. Trump's pro-crypto stance is expected to have a ripple effect on the entire cryptocurrency market, potentially boosting the prices of other major digital assets like Ethereum (ETH). The recent debut of the first spot Ether ETF in the U.S., which saw over $107 million in trading volume on its first day, highlights the growing institutional interest in the crypto space .
In conclusion, as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the "Trump Trade" is set to reshape the crypto landscape. Trump's support for Bitcoin and the broader crypto ecosystem is expected to attract significant investment and attention to the space, potentially driving BTC and other digital asset prices to new heights. However, some market participants are positioning themselves for a potential correction, as evidenced by the launch of the inverse BTC ETF in Hong Kong. Regardless of the outcome, the 2024 election is poised to be a pivotal moment for the crypto industry, with lasting implications for the future of digital assets in the U.S. and beyond.
Citations:
coingeek.com
www.bloomberg.com
www.finews.asia
www.bloomberg.com
cointelegraph.com
BTC Outlook after the Dip. What to expect NOW?BTC Dipped into the CME GAP
Structure shows some weekness
There is still Liqiuidity below left
When are we expecting Price to reverse? Watch the Video for more details.
Bitcoin Daily Timeframe - Daily UpdatesBitcoin is currently trading at transition prices. I am sharing a chart that highlights key price levels and potential scenarios for both short and long positions. I will provide daily updates on BTCUSD.
Key Price Levels:
Using the Fibonacci series: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, we derive the following levels:
0.5*(55+89)=72
72−55=17
0.5*17=8.5
Thus, the key levels are: 55K, 63.5K, 72K, 80.5K, and 89K.
Long Scenario:
The current price is 68.2K. According to the downtrend line, the main resistance is at 72K. If Bitcoin penetrates this level, it opens the path to the first target of 80.5K and the second target of 89K, which is the upper side of the uptrend channel on the weekly timeframe.
Short Scenario:
If Bitcoin fails to penetrate the 72K level, it will likely retest the support at 63.5K. I will provide updates as the situation evolves.
BTC Breakdown After Failed 5th Attempt at New ATHWe've been watching the upper trendline for weeks and saying that since breakouts usually happen on the 3rd or 5th attempts...
That a failure (which we just had) to break above the upper trendline shown here or to ATH on this attempt, would likely lead to a deeper correction which we're starting to see.
Plus our custom indicators have all rolled over to Red. Currently it's looking like $62k is next support block of buyers.
Some are speculating that was the top, and whale sellers are front-running a recession.
But comparing this year's chart looks a lot like prior Bitcoin bull-runs, just before the parabolic rise happens. Specifically like 2016, when there was months of stagnation near the old high..
Just before the big explosion in price.
What do you think??
BTCUSDT Forms Bearish Head and Shoulders: 5% Downside Target in Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) is showing a classic bearish head and shoulders pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal. This technical formation, considered one of the most reliable trend reversal indicators, suggests that the current bullish trend may be nearing its end.
The pattern consists of three peaks, with the middle peak (the head) being the highest, flanked by two lower peaks (the shoulders). As the price breaks below the neckline, it confirms the pattern and indicates a likely downward movement.
Key points to consider:
Pattern confirmation: Watch for a decisive break below the neckline.
Entry point: Consider entering a short position upon neckline breakout.
Stop loss: Place a stop loss just above the right shoulder for risk management.
Profit target: Aim for a 5% downside move from the breakout point.
Traders should exercise caution and use proper risk management techniques, as no pattern is guaranteed to work every time. Always conduct thorough analysis and consider multiple factors before making trading decisions.
#Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #CryptoTrading #HeadAndShoulders #TechnicalAnalysis #BearishPattern #CryptoMarket #TradingStrategy #CryptoTrends #RiskManagement
