Bitcoinshort
Bitcoin - a flight to the moon is canceled!I am updating my BTC analysis on 1D. My review has the following add ons:
What are the basis for going SHORT on the chart?
1. An acsending wedge has been formed. It's in green colour. It is feasible for the price to touch the top line of the wedge around 64500-64700 USD, and then move down into the purple triangle. This is one of the scenarios for price action.
2. The second scenario involves the price moving inside a formed descending purple triangle. Thereafter, a price can be expected to break the bottom support line of this triangle:
and go down to 38.2%, followed by correction and further fall 50% on Fib (A-B-C pattern);
or fall directly to 50-55% on Fib to liquidity support level.
How are indicators supporting this?
1. RSI support level has been smashed on 22 October. MACD wave is moving towards zero level. RSI and MACD divergence in relation to the orice action is very clear on 4H. The divergence has started on 7 October and is actively present up to this day.
2. Market volatility is falling. On 28 October RVI dropped below 50 - it's the first signal to sell. The second one will be at level 40.
3. Vertical volume is falling still while the price is moving up. Even though the price action slowed down, it is still at the top and showing divergence. A good strong signal to go SHORT would be a high volume bar indicating a sale - that would be the bar in red colour. It's best to look out for it on 4H, otherwise you may miss a good slice of profit if you concentrate on 1D only.
What are the fundamental basis?
On Wednesday, FED stated that they will reduce bond purchasing by 10-15 billion a month. Less credit volume means lower liquidity. When liquidity is reduced, the price goes down. However, how is this relevant to bitcoin? Well, according to research company Datatrek, in 2021 the correlation between bitcoin and S&P500 is 79% on 1-10 D timeframe. Bond market has a direct effect on equity market. When the equity market falls, speculators reduce their positions starting with higher risk assets, one of which is bitcoin.
Why is the light to the moon of 100,000 USD is unlikely to happen now?
This is because a couple of trillion dollars would have to be pumped into bitcoin to move its price to the top. There is simply not enough liquidity to make this happen at 60000-67000 USD level.
Bitcoin- Closer and closer to break supportYesterday, Bitcoin has dropped slightly under support, just to reverse strongly and make a rally to 58k.
However, this rally was short-lived and is clear that the pressure is to the downside.
I expect a break under 55.5 very soon and after this the road is clear to 52k zone support
Only a daily close above 58k would put a pause to this scenario
BTC keeps collapsing📝💰 Due to the chart, BTC would form three probable patterns:
1. Running Flat
2. Running Triangle
3. Expanded Flat
The PRZ zone is the area I've specified by using Fibonacci. So collapsing is certain, but...
Running flat and expanded flat have impulse formation but running triangle not (A-B-C formation). Since wave 4 is often a triangle, so A-B-C is more probable.
I've also used Ichimoku. A long flat Senkou Span B along with a thick cloud, it's informing us this topic which I can't pass it nowadays. Thus I think it would form wave B which is a upward wave and finally wave C would be formed by passing the cloud and more collapsing is on the way.
💣 In conclusion, I can say just be patience and ready for short positions.
🌐 My website: alibahaari.github.io
Bitcoin- Yesterday's price action provides a lot of cluesIn my previous 3 or 4 analyzes I said that in order to maintain its bullish trajectory, Bitcoin not only needs to stay above 63-63.5k zone but also needs to decisively break above 66k. Both of these have failed yesterday.
BtcUsd has started the week in a bullish tone, and after reversing from 63k, tried to reconquer 66k, and, as we all saw, failed and dropped to 63k support. This support is also broken now and the outlook for Btc is bearish at this moment.
From a technical point of view, 66k is now strong resistance and 69 ATH is a major top in my opinion.
I expect a drop of at least 15-20% for this crypto and a visit to 52k support in the medium term.
I will look to sell rallies against 66k
BTC BAG HOLDERS - FURTHER CONT? BTC has been on quite the bullish run over the last few weeks however, it might be losing steam?
After surpassing an all time high above the $65k-$67k range
Some bag holders, might want to cash in. We've heard the speculative numbers, but just try to follow the price action!
Possible correction underway to the $59k - $60 k handle....
Always trade only what your willing to lose.
The Trading Regime
BTC Sell a break setup.Bitcoin - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 60987 (stop at 61878)
Trend line support is located at 61300.
A break of bespoke support at 61000, and the move lower is already underway.
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A bearish Head and Shoulders has formed.
Our profit targets will be 58428 and 57428
Resistance: 63000 / 64900 / 67000
Support: 61800 / 61000 / 59500
BTCUSD BitCOIN Sell Incoming $BTCUSD Sell Until January 1 2023Bitcoin enjoyed a meteoric rise. Fueled by COVID 2020 and COVID 2019 hysteria, Bitcoin farms enjoyed massive spikes of media consumption on platforms like Netflix and Youtube. The fundamentals for media consumption (addiction) remain optimistic.
Early exit is today with candle reaching 68,000. Expect two months of sell off and re-entry in late December.
Happy trading!
BTC #BTC 1D Chart - Downward Short termIf BTC Bitcoin price breaks down I can see the 0.382 fib as support area. This also comes in around 50 SMA. I also want to point out on a larger scale a rising wedge in the orange triangle. It is definitely something to pay attention to. Analysis is on 1D chart.
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Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk #bitcoin #altcoins
Bitcoin is heading into a short term correction After closer examination, it seems reasonable to assume that the Bitcoin price will go through a short-term correction before a retest of the previous all-time high can take place. At least if past patterns will repeat.
Upward sideways movements, where a clear bearish divergence is forming on the MACD and RSI indicators on the 4-hour chart, are typical for Bitcoin. Currently, we have such a move in place and accordingly, it resembles the pattern that the above chart illustrates.
So, today we could see another attempt to establish above $58,000 after a smaller countermovement, which should happen now. In this attempt, a kind of double top (3 + 4) would be formed according to the pattern and would result in a larger correction (8-12%).
Of course, it should be taken to heart that the movements shown are similar, but never the same. Nevertheless, this comparison makes it clear that a correction is to be expected here soon. I would estimate that this will begin sometime between tonight and tomorrow.
Using Fibonacci levels, we can identify some possible price targets for this correction:
(1) 0.618-Fibonacci level: $54,200 (~6.8%)
(2) 0.500-Fibonacci level: $51,500 (~11.7%)
(3) 0.382-Fibonacci level: $48,650 (~16.6%)
In this context, price target (2) would fit best into the previous scheme in terms of magnitude. However, price target (1) would be preferred from the price structure, since previous corrections led the price back to the beginning of the sideways movement.
Bitcoin Approaching Key Levels in a Rising Channel!Bitcoin made another rally upwards from the bottom of a wedge that just invalidated the claims of ascending channel and confirmed that the price is moving inside a rising channel.
This channel is good as long as broken and the support area of this channel has been tested a couple of times.
One easy way to trade this channel is to open a short when the price reaches the top of the channel and open a long when the price touches the bottom of the channel.
On the other hand, Bitcoin is approaching a strong Resistance Zone of $57k which is also a 0.786 fib level from the April's high. It is strongly suggested to be very cautious at these levels because we are in a rising channel plus approaching a strong resistance zone, failing to hold will take us to the area marked as strong support zone and maybe below.
Also, Bitcoin has been bullish for so long and we've been moving without testing the supports, so it is okay to be prepared for one.
Good Read on Rising Channel:
patternswizard.com
Bitcoin Price: $56,700
Thank You & Good Luck.
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