BTC - Follow THIS Path to the HALVING📉Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈
If you have been following me for a while, you'll know I've been saying we are trading in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle. I've also referred to this as Elliot Wave Theory Wave 1.
According to my plan, this is the first impulse wave towards the upside. But the upwards wave are always followed by correction waves; a natural part of any cycle. I expected the second impulse wave (2-3) to happen very close to or just before the BTC halving, which is set to happen in April. This is based on a previous analysis that I did where we made a conclusion based on the price action of the previous BTC halvings before, during and after.
👉 Macro Analysis
Bitcoin is due for that 30% correction / pullback. Even dropping to lower 30K zone would still be a lower high, classic Elliot Wave Theory before the next upwards impulse wave, which is the biggest ( wave 2). This will fall exactly on the white diagonal trendline, which is our support zone.
👉 Technical Indicator Analysis
Our technical indicator is still bullish, but showing "Overbought". In a higher timeframe, this usually means it can carry n for some time - but a pullback is imminent before another impulse upwards.
NOTE that I am BULLISH on BTC. We're in the opening moments of a new bullish cycle, but there are pullbacks and corrections in upward cycles - and I'm expecting that we're currently trading in impulse wave 0-1.
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BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P
Bitcoinshort
BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)BTCUSD, Are we going to face 35% Correction ?! (Local View)
Let's take a look at local movements on INDEX:BTCUSD .
Since last post Bitcoin moved in our favor, reached 38,500$.
We have a strong bounce here, which is heading towards upper 40s as long as daily close was above big red candle.
There is a probability, that Bitcoin is going to draw lower high which can be anywhere from 38.2 to 61.8 (Golden Pocket) Fib. In confluence we have several magnets at this range.
Possible stop losses around 43,500$
Fair Value Gap around 44,500$. Possible liquidations Across top 3 exchanges (Binance, OKX, Bybit) totaling around 4.0 Bln. USD. (This number covers last 30 Days Data)
Hence we should take into consideration, that huge amount of liquidity is sitting down in the previous reaccumulation zone. (Suggesting to check out Liquidity Heatmap . Putting link because I am not able to add screenshot.)
- - - - - - - - -
Next I want to mention one weird thread I bumped into on Twitter.
It’s about HTX (ex Huobi), which is owned by Justin Sun. They turned off their proof-of-reserves system, what hints about their insolvency. Onchain analysis say that they have problems with ETH holdings.
Also this is not connected to only HTX, things are being wrong with TUSD and stUSDT (Stacked USDT receipt on TRON Network).
For further details about this event please read thread from adamscochran on twitter . Hence there was around 600 Mln. USDT transfer to JustlandDao yesterday.
In the end, I want to mention, that there is no 100% accurate analysis.
We are dealing with probabilities, just with analysis we are shifting probabilities to our favor.
Best Wishes.
BITCOIN - Weekly Outlook 13/02/24'Hello everyone,
hope you guys doing great.
So those who follow know, that my close monitoring and breaking down chart payed off...
Since we was able to recognize that probabilities of reverse shifting and favouring Upside price targets when Price was refusing to go lower under price level I ment in last updates..
So hope everyone bagged some profits already, and if not, its still great time to do right now as we sits just around 50k which is GREAT price for some profit taking for several reason, more about why you can find inside ↓↓↓ ...
As for WHAT Im doing RIGHT NOW - is that I closly follow lower time frame charts 5min/15min and 1h...
Since Im of opinion that we rallied A LOT already and is Tuesday, which following my data shows as a day with the MOST Liquidity reverses (meaning, we go for Sellside liquidity)..
So with that in mind and aswell upcomin US CPI numbers Im alerted that there is highier chance of revisiting Lower prices then sustained rallie on upside.. BUT!! even in this scenario Im thinking that is still possible that price can rallie a bit highier (51k to 51,8k max.) BEFORE reversing... at least for this WEEK!
-- In simple terms, I think we can rallie today up to 51,8k MAX! as a possibility, but Its Low% chance BUT if its happend, IT WILL BE GREAT SHORT ENTRY PRICE for me! --
--- IN THE SAME TIME - I think we are in GREAT SHORT PRICE entry RIGHT NOW, since, we already rallied a LOT, and above ment price is only 2% max.3% highier.. and since its possible we dont get that PERFECT entry area around 51k... it would be SMART to follow lower time frames as I ment, and entry "smaller" position In correct time, before building that short trade more ---
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
Open your fkin eyes! BTCI see lot of bullish tweet. Lot of leverage longs at top. Lot of big influencers calling for new highs. I have seen this FOMO, this euphoria, this sentiment almost 3 years ago. I remember it. And now i see the same pattern. It's not perfect. But it's pretty the same. When BTC will start to drop? 14-15 Feb. When it will bottom? Mid April. When you seen it? Here. Now save you ass and don't long Bitcoin.
$btc Bitcoin price action still rising in channel....UP or Down?CRYPTOCAP:BTC Bitcoin's price action has remained in this rising channel since around 26000.
Current price: 48100
If price continues to respect this channel expect to find previous resistances: 50600, 53500, 55200
#bitcoin is also spotting a double top with a bearish divergence on the daily timeframe oscillator.
if price cannot rise past current resistances expect price to retest supports at: 47200, 44200, 41800, 39400
Decision point!
BITCOIN Breakdown of Whats Going On - 06/02/2024Hello everyone,
I have to update on update of previous post, to break it down little clearer for some of you, to explain why RIGHT NOW Im very causious...
For that purpose Im going from Highier to Lower timeframes, to get clearer picture of what is the MOST possible at this moment..
So, If we go from 5Day to 4h timeframe, its clearly to see that we are "stucked" in consolidation of last 5D candle, which was our "top" of 2023 and we are in process of "accumulation/distribution" either shorts/longs before moving further (as stated yesterday, longer we stay highier, chance of continuation of going highier increasing)...
So as you know, I WAS of opinion, that we should go lower to swept Sellside liquidity, before moving further... but since FED meeting changed nothing, I HAVE TO stick with my Highier TimeFrame perspective...
And thats it, as presented in Q1 update - Due to previous experience in similar market conditions I should suggest that until nothing change & FED start cutting rates, market will move Highier with Time until this change come!
Breakdown :
5 DAY -
to
1 Day -
On 1Day, we can see much better, that we first swept Buyside liquidity of that 1st Rectangle consolidation, before we processed to swept Sellside liquidity... BUT NOW, we came EXACTLY BACK where we WAS, which SHOULDNT be CASE if we continuing LOWER with confidence...
So, we HAVE TO go to 4hr, to make "better and clearer" guess of whats happening...
4h -
So , I added 1 more layer of rectange... which is LAST WEEK RANGE...
You can see, its relatively tight with its own "consolidation" (i put green cut line between for better visibility)... and YESTERDAY, we firstly swept highs, then lows and now we proceeding to going back up.. in this case, IF WE ARE ABLE to MOVE ABOVE that FED HIGH I would expect with high probability of moving further up, ONCE WE GET ABOVE OUR CONSOLIDATION BOX, both of them!
-- One more 4hr chart with SMA , which I do not use as "trading tool", but in my obsertvation-> When they are stacked like now and we moving in tight range in same time.. WHEN Price BREAK above/under them with "test" - in most cases it continuos in that direction for pro-longed period of time.
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
Bitcoin in February 2024BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P
Local targets for Bitcoin in February 2024
Possible Targets and explanation idea
➡️12H timeframe Fib is relevant. After bounce from 27 zone we can see drop to 40300
➡️40300 is a key level what we need to hold forming H&S pattern on 4H
➡️Target for this pattern will be over 46-48k and liquidations over 5 billion
➡️Above we will test again Montly FVG
➡️If we will not hold 40300 road will be open to 36600
➡️Market Mood indicator in hope zone on 12H need to see "depression" grey zone
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
BITCOIN - MAJOR CORRECTION: STILL -20% LEFT TO GO (TARGET 32K)Bitcoin is correcting. It is as simple as that. Here is my input on things:
What is on the chart? (Follow the steps)
1) Price rallied back in October 2023, breaking the high of the 13th of July 2023. Throughout this breakout a large untouched daily FVG was formed.
2) Following the rally, price slowed down and created an accumulation structure which plays a huge role in this analysis. LIQUIDITY ! This price structure presents a huge target for bears. We pair this idea with the fact that price is currently in a premium area. Where is the price equilibrium located? Right within this accumulation structure.
3) This is a major range that also plays a fundamental role in this analysis. POWER OF 3 .
This is a known price action theory (Power of 3) constituted of 3 (no shit) steps: accumulation, manipulation and distribution. Why is it relevant here? Well open your eyes. We had our accumulation, we had our false break (manipulation) and now what is left? The distribution.
4) I am pairing the price action analysis with some Ichimoku Kinko Hyo technicals. Here we have 3 major bearish signals shown on the daily Ichimoku: break of the Tenkan and Kijun, a Tenkan/Kijun crossover and a Kumo twist (these are all bearish signals and you're free to go learn about Ichimoku Kinko Hyo in your own time).
5) Here we have an even more significant bearish signal/confirmation: the break of the weekly Tenkan + the entry into the daily Kumo meaning price didn't bounce on the Kumo which should act as support if we were to have been bullish.
6) Price closing on the border of the Kumo is never a good sign. This also gave place to a daily FVG that needs to be respected for the continuation of the correction + coupled with the low of the prior range which serves as our BOS level. Metaphorically, Bitcoin is on the edge of a cliff, with a pack of bears creeping up on it and it can't go any higher so it can either jump or take on the pack of bears. Statistically I think it would rather jump to see another day (assuming beyond the cliff there's water so it survives).
7) EQUILIBRIUM . This can be used as a partial target and price would finally be at the doors of the discounted area!
8) The 0.702 level + the July 2023 high + the daily FVG represents in my opinion the best possible entry for a long run position. This analysis would be a long setup if it weren't for the fact that we still have a 20% correction left to do.
As always, I hope you have a wonderful day and make a lot of money! Take care! ;)
BTC MUST TO GO DOWNBased on my latest analysis using the Ichimoku system, I highlighted the levels that #BTC left behind without touching them. As a typical correction after forming a valid high, and seeing a red komu, BTC will see a correction up to 0.618 of the previous downtrend wave, and probably a hunt, and then continue its own way to $35k or finally hunting FWB:27K -$30k
BITCOIN Bearish Wyckoff Distribution 🚨 Supply in ControlWhales have been manipulating Bitcoin in a Wyckoff Distribution schematic since 12/5/23 (before the GBTC and FTX sell off.)
Currently:
🚨 Bitcoin dropped below bottom of Trading Range to create a Sign of Weakness in Phase D.
🚨 Bitcoin flipped the bottom of the Trading Range at $40,150 to resistance and created its final Last Point of Supply for shorts to enter.
🚨 With the CME Gap Fill, GBTC and FTX sell offs, Bitcoin is soon entering Phase E: Supply in Control where everyone realizes there is little chance of a bounce and everyone panic sells.
BTC Update - 25.01.2024 / Short setup4 hour chart:
I am observing the complete nucleation of a downside oof through liquidity withdrawal, rebalancing into FVG zones and internal liquidity withdrawal!
POIs from which to consider continuing shorts on bitokin:
1. From current (High risk but technical factors are all respected, there is rebalancing into 0.5 moves and daily imbalance with ind withdrawal)
2- Imbalance (43927.7 - 45460.2): More justified entry, but not completely sure if price is rebalancing into this POI.
From targets all compression from the lows (37468 - 33224) and monthly FVG as FTA (34076 - 27480)
Still observing patterns to enter, local accumulation phase in the market today!
❗️ Not financial advice, always think with your head
BTCUSD - DAILY SHORT STRUCTURE (TARGET 34K)8 Step Analysis:
1) Price broke out of its bullish continuation structure and pursued its rally onwards.
2) A range was formed following the breakout which accentuated the anticipation of the Bitcoin Spot ETF approval by the SEC.
3) This anticipation was shown by leveraged longs that increased open interest through the roof obviously giving a lot of liquidating manipulation opportunities to market makers. You can see this with the multiple false breaks, liquidity grabs, resistance retests, etc (whatever you want to call it, it's all the same thing)…
4) Price retraced back into the range after breaking buyside which is crucial info. I think whales are already in their comfortable shorting pants ready to watch retail scatter in confusion. 'Why would BTC crash?! The ETF was approved!!!' Well they control the narrative and therefore what you think (except if you are one of the rare few in the crypto sphere with a sense of critical thinking).
5) One last bounce higher to build back hopes one last time just to liquidate more longs on the painful way down (or pleasureful way down if you also put on your comfortable shorting pants).
6) The descent should have started (at this point this may be far fetched to try and predict days or weeks in advance but let's try) and sellside should be taken out.
7) The last piece of liquidity I am interested in is below the (1) breakout structure (I refuse to call it a triangle lol). This to me really represents a juicy price to actually start building a serious swing position.
8) The trend continuation.
BTC is going to see 36K as the first target!Hi dear traders,
As we said in our last analysis on BTC, There is a need to correction for Bitcoin and this price falling is natural.
Everything is explained in the video, See my previous analysis on the BTC too, It helps you to understand current market situation.
Be free to ask your questions in the comments, Best regards, Zargar.
BTC zone for short positions?Hi friends, are you shorting?
Is it the right time or do we need to wait, the weekly looks good, the trend is strong, anyway the MFI is still low, the RSI MA is also low, isn't it more necessary to wait for a retest around 47500-48000?
Let us know your thoughts on when is the best time to short
ETH & BTC - OMG WHAT IS HAPPENING?! (CROSS ANALYSIS)Don't panic, this was expected. It's not the end of crypto, it's just a healthy correction that we need once and a while to justify a rally in the future. Price cannot always go up even though we wish it was that easy.
What is on the charts? (3 steps)
1) The consolidation that had us wonder what was going to happen. (Again we forget that there is also option trading amongst other things with Bitcoin and time plays a big role. In fact, time is so important that if you can control when price will drop just by being a big player, you can put everyone out of the money right at contract expiry. One of the many ways whales will f*** you. How do I know? I don't. But if I had the ability to move markets I'd do just that.)
2) Bearish structure that could have been a short entry but obviously I prefer a double confirmation. Double confirmations just put probabilities on our side. When money is on the table, you either gamble or play the probabilities game. That's what we're doing here: trading not gambling.
3) Sellside liquidity taken out. This is our signal. If not now then when? Again this isn't me telling you to short. Who am I? No one, do your own research.
So what now?
We want a retracement in the reload zone and the 0.702 + FVG is THE place to be. If it goes higher then I'd cancel the idea for now. Again the DAILY ANALYSIS supports the short and that's what matters.
As always, happy trading and stop gambling you ape. ;)
BITCOIN Weekly Outlook - 22/01/24 Hello everyone,
as I ment in last week idea, I am expecting BTC rather going LOWER then Highier,
prior to FED meeting which is next week.
Since we doesnt have much volatility last week, Im would expect bigger moves to occur later this week, when Market related reports start coming...
To understand further view I would suggest to first check this out:
As right now: I would suggest be very carefull with NEW trade opens , and manage them very carefully since there is potentionall for liquidity swept due to low range last week...
So, everyone who WAS Short before this post or decided to go Short after, should be in favorable position right now. (opening price at time of post is represented by purple dotted line)
Our Liquidity Sellside targets are same as was last week.
BUT what would I suggest to everyone, and doing myself is ↓↓↓↓↓↓
Create STOP LOSS order ABOVE weekend Highs
WHY? , - Have in mind, we are still in Monday PRE-MARKET, if we all of sudden reverse today, before late week news drivers, we can potentionally go to OTE targets from last week. And in that case we would LOSE on our trade... Thats Why we wanna create STOP LOSS order above weekend price BUT under our OPENING price. So even if market reverse, our position still be closed in very small profit but not end in loss!!!
Hopefully, this helps some of you with your perception of market.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot for me. Thanks
Joe
The bleeding continues to get worse in Bitcoin!Bitcoin has been bleeding out like a deer on the opening day of the hunt, and there's no sign of it stopping, in fact, it's going to continue to get worse in the coming weeks.
Just like that old Motley Crue song from Dr. Feelgood (and this won't feel good for sh@tcoin, I mean Bitcoin holders at all), 'She goes down, she goes down, she goes down, down, down, down... all night long!
Bitcoin is heading to 35K.
BTC at a resistance from 2013, down to 1k-3kI have never doom posted on crypto but it's all coming together. We hit a strong resistance from 2013 and dropped exactly there, all the logarythmic guys are going to be thrown of. This is going to be a massacre, I keep trying to tell everyone but everyone seems comfortable just HODL'ing which I get but I have a very strong gut feeling this will change. Good luck out there, winter is coming.