BITCOIN rally starting and next Top expected at least $200k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a 1D Double Bottom and seems to have priced the final low before a new rally that will take it to a new yearly high. The price is already on a 15 day high and it is an excellent time now to look at potential highs for this Cycle.
As we've done in the past, we will rely on the long-term time-frames for a more meaningful illustration of BTC's historic Cycles. Those are patterns that have repeated themselves over and over again, with some variations of course based on the current market conditions.
** The Fibonacci Channels **
Right now the price is above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), on a 8-month rally that hasn't been anything like short-term Bear Cycle rallies. The previous Cycles topped near Fibonacci trend-lines of prior Cycle Channels. For example the December 2017 Cycle Top was formed just below the bottom (Fib 0.0) of the orange Fibonacci Channel that started from the previous Cycle bottom. The November 2021 Top was formed just below the middle (Fib 0.5) of the blue Fibonacci Channel. This could be a +0.5 Fib progression and in that case the Top of the current Cycle might be just below the top (Fib 1.0) of the black Fibonacci Channel that started on the December 2018 bottom.
** The Halvings and $200k **
The 1.0 Fib at the time of (the next) Halving 4 (April 2024) will be above $200000, and as we know after each Halving, Bitcoin posts the most aggressive (parabolic) rally of the Bull Cycle. So that leads us to assume that the Top of the current Bull Cycle will be at least $200k. To give a relative sense of pathing, we have plotted the 'post Halving rallies' of the previous three Cycles on the current Channel starting on Halving 4.
Do you think that we will see $200k by 2025 Q3? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoinsignals
BITCOIN 3D Golden Cross just formed! Road to ATH begins!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just completed a new Golden Cross pattern, this time on the 3D chart. Naturally the price is trading above both the 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3D MA200 (orange trend-line).
In the previous 2 Cycles, once the Cross took place, the 3D MA200 turned into a Support (technical exception of course is March 2020 and the COVID crash, which is though a Black Swan event, the price would have continued upwards if it wasn't for that). With the 3D MA50 guiding the price, the next stop for the uptrend that started was the All Time High (ATH).
Due to the Libra euphoria and other positive fundamentals regarding adoption that delivered the 2019 3D Golden Cross faster, it took BTC around 100 days more to reach the ATH in 2020. It could be a fair estimate that Bitcoin would have reached the current ATH ($69000) by around this time next year.
But what do you think? Is this final Golden Cross the ticket to a new ATH? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN volume is decreasing, yet price is rising. What to do?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been extending its recovery since late November, following the FTX crash but is doing so on a Decreasing Volume. In fact the volume is currently on historically low levels. Decreasing volume is associated with easy price manipulation and rightly so it is getting a lot of market participants worried as during rallies it tends to make the trend fragile.
** Decreasing volume in previous Cycles **
A simple look however, at past Bull Cycles is enough to provide a good understanding of the current situation. This chart (4D time-frame) shows that there was Decreasing Volume following all previous major market bottoms, especially in times of extreme capitulation such as the March 2020 COVID crash, or the August 2015 Bitfinex crash. With the FTX crash in early November 2022 being such a capitulation even, there should be no surprise that the volume has been decreasing ever since. BTC however has doubled since then, indicating that this whole period has been nothing but another Accumulation Phase for smart money near the bottom of the Bull Cycle. We can strongly claim that this is a standard post-bottm Cycle rally.
** The Vortex Gap **
Besides this correlation, you may also have a look at the Vortex Indicator. Every time the Decreasing Volume leads to a Low, the VI- (red) crosses below the VI+ (blue) and opens the gap. A VI- hitting 0.5000 has historically happened when BTC made a Higher High within the new Bull Cycle. Right now it is still only at 0.9100, potentially indicating that there is significant potential for a deep Higher High.
But what do you think? Are you worried about this decreasing volume while the price has been rising or agree with the historic modle that this is common after Cycle bottoms? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Amazing historic symmetry targeting $49000 in NovemberThis is a break-through analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame that we posted a while ago but couldn't look more relevant today and can accurately explain the low consolidation of the last few weeks. It compares the current Cycle with that of 2014 - 2017.
** Amazing Cycle symmetry justifies current consolidation **
As you see there is so far an astonishing symmetry between the two, with the current price consolidation, after almost hitting the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, resembling that of late February - early April 2016. For the Fibonacci calculations we have used the price top and bottom as suggested by the 1W RSI, which is the backbone of the analysis. This indicates that the Cycle Top (on RSI terms) was on the week of April 12 2021 (and not Nov 08 2021) while the Cycle Bottom was on the week of June 13 2022 (and not in November 2022, which was in the aftermath of the FTX crash).
** The Phases of the Cycle **
So far the three Phases have lasted almost the same time. We are now half-way through Phase 4 (green), which in 2016 lasted for 28 weeks and on its end hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level. As a result, this is a highly probable target, with the 0.786 Fib being at $49000 and the 28 week span ends on November 13 2023. See how similar the 1W RSI fractals are between the two, forming a Triangle pattern with top and bottom on the exact same values.
** Halving, 1W MA50 and conclusion **
Basically Phase 4 is the first bullish attempt of BTC within the new Bull Cycle, after Phase 3 (yellow) which is the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the first Accumulation period. Phase 4 is essentially the prologue of the market before the parabolic rally and the introduction to the Halving event. The next Halving is expected in April 2024. Based on this symmetry that is holding very strongly so far, BTC should have hit at least $49000 by then. We need to point out that from Phase 4 onwards, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into the Bull Cycles absolute Support level. Pull-backs near it are technically strong buy opportunities.
With the price having almost filled the 0.5 Fibonacci gap, do you think BTC will finish Phase 4 in a strong fashion and hit $49000 and the 0.786 level? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Holding key Cycle Support, preparing for 35k and 43k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is above the 0.5 Fibonacci Lower Lows trend-line that provided Support numerous times during the previous Cycle but when it finally closed a 1W candle below it (June 06 2022) it started the final bearish sequence.
Currently this is very positive for the upside's chances as the price has cleared the 0.5 Fib for more than a month and is currently on the 0 Fib level that closed all 1W candles above it from May 17 2021 to June 28 2021. BTC has managed to close above that for 5 straight week and if it repeats that again, we can see the final two bullish waves to 35000 and 43000 taking place. The key factor for such a price rally is the Higher Lows trend-line since the market bottom which is holding, while the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been re-tested in more than 4 months.
In fact, trading below the 1W MA50 was the majority of the Bear Cycle's price action (red arc). Since the closing above it 4 months ago we can argue that this is how the Bull Cycle's price action will unfold (green arc).
So do you think that the 0.0 Fib will give Bitcoin the necessary push for the 35k and 43k levels? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Our China bonds ratio is giving a huge buy signalIt is not the first time we look into how the Chinese bonds (with our unique CN02Y/CN20Y ratio displayed by the blue trend-line) affect Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles:
With the addition of the Sine Waves to better illustrate the Cyclical behavior of the bond yields ratio, we can see that it matches almost perfectly BTC's Cycles. Every time it bottoms, BTC bottom as well and start a cyclical rally. Additionally, you can see that the ratio has been on a Channel Down for the past 10 years, supporting the bullish expansion on Bitcoin.
At the moment the ratio is pulling back in a similar fashion as March 2013, January 2017 and December 2019. On those occassions Bitcoin started a Parabolic Rally afterwords.
Do you think we are that close to a huge buy signal as suggested by the Chinese bonds ratio? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin what a huge uncorrelation with S&PAt the current values of the S&P500 index, Bitcoin was priced at $55,000-$59,000 in 2022.
Unfortunately, starting from around May, Bitcoin has completely lost its correlation with the S&P 500 index. Despite the S&P's rapid growth of over 10%, Bitcoin has remained relatively stagnant.
To make matters worse, if significant downward trends occur in the S&P 500, Bitcoin will not withstand it and the correlation will temporarily return. In other words, Bitcoin is currently unresponsive to minor movements (both upward and downward) in the S&P 500, but it will react to a major downturn.
BITCOIN will rally to $150k! Ground-breaking Fibonacci analysis!This chart on the 1W time-frame is a complete mapping of the rest of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycle! The basis of it is a Fibonacci Channel Up (May 2017 to October 2025) whose price symmetry is identical with the one that run from June 2013 to November 2021.
As you can see the similarities within the two are more than obvious, even on a 1W RSI basis. The current Channel Up has already started its second Cycle and through a certain set of technical formations and events we project its pathing and cyclical Top.
** The Fibonacci Channels similarities **
Let's start by comparing the common characteristics between the two Channels. Both start with a 1st Rally (green arc) that makes a 1st High on Fibonacci 1.0. The Bear Cycle starts and bottoms when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) makes a Bearish Cross under the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1W RSI hits the 30.00 oversold zone (green circle). Then the first mini rally of the new Bull Cycle starts but loses steam as the 1W RSI breaks above the 70.00 overbought zone (blue circle). The price eases and after a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross, the Halving event comes to kick-start the 2nd Rally. That rally peaks a little under Fib 1.0. Same picture after that as the new Bear Cycle bottoms on an oversold 1W RSI and a 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross. On the previous Channel Up, the 3rd Rally also started after the Halving event (3rd) and topped within the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci range.
** Where are we now? **
This brings us back to today and the new Channel Up. As mentioned it has started the new Bull Cycle and is on the mini rally, with the 1W RSI getting rejected exactly on the 70.00 overbought Resistance. This indicates that even if we get a Higher High short-term above the 1W MA100, we should see the price getting neutralized until the new 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross and Halving 4 (expected in April 2024) that will give the signal for the start of the Channel's 3rd Rally.
** What will the next High be? **
It is important to point out now that all Rallies has started below the 0.236 Fibonacci level. It is equally important to mention that the time range between Cycle Highs have been 210 weeks (1470 days) and 204 weeks (1428 days). If the current date range is also the 204 minimum, then we should be expecting the next High to be around October 13 2025. And if it is again within the 0.618 and 0.5 Fibonacci range, then it should be around $150000!
Do you agree with that projection or you have a lower/ higher target? Is this Fibonacci Channel approach the way to go for the rest of the current Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN On the 1D MA50 again after 5 weeks!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the June 20 bullish break-out. This is the first level of Support and potential buy entry for medium-term traders. Our condition is that the 1D candle has to close above the 1D MA50 as on the April 24 and February 13 similar bottoms. Those delivered a +11.44% and +18.18% rise respectively. As a result, if the candles keep closing above the 1D MA50 we can see an immediate upside on BTC ranging from 32200 to 34200.
Notice also that the 1D RSI hit the bottom of the Symmetrical Support Zone, formed by the lows mentioned above. An additional buy signal, as long as the 1D MA50 is holding.
Do you expect that it will hold and pushed BTC to a rebound or a candle close below it can pull the price as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is untested since March 10? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Early August will trigger a massive rally!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has established itself above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) making steady Higher Highs since the start of the year and on the week of August 07 2023 is about to complete 60 weeks since the 1W RSI bottom (the Bear Cycle's technical bottom if it wasn't for November's FTX crash).
In the last two Cycles, the 60 week mark from the RSI bottom, triggered the start of a strong rally (green Channel Up) that reached +359% from the Cycle's bottom. Every Cycle can be viewed as an Ascending Triangle with the Top/ Resistance starting from the Bear Cycle's first Lower High. On the 2014/ 2015 Cycle the Resistance was at +300%. In 2019 the +359% mark was reached much earlier due to the Libra euphoria. Also the sudden collapse exactly after the 60 week completion was due to the March 2020 COVID crash, a non-technical irregularity. The Channel Up started shortly after regardless, harmonizing the patterns, right when the 1W MA50 was regained.
Notice how even the 1W RSI sequences look similar with each other, with the Lower Highs trend-line standing out.
In any case on the current Cycle, the +359% mark matches exactly the $69800 All Time High (ATH), while a +300% rise sets a Target at $63000. One thing looks certain based on this model, that the 60 week count is almost up and in August we can see the start of a new rally towards this target zone. Scale your buys accordingly!
Buy what do you think? Are you expecting BTC to follow this pattern of the previous Cycles or have a different projection in mind? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Near the 1D MA50, ready for a pump to $34000Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for nearly a full month (since the June 23rd High) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is only 1000 points away. Since the bullish break-out exactly at the start of the year, BTC has used the 1D MA50 as the short-term Support and more specifically the bounce level before each Higher High.
As you see on this chart, the movement since the start of 2023 has been fairly Cyclical, a Higher Highs rejection starts a correction, which when the 1D MA50 breaks (1D candle closes below it), extends towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This sequence current has the last Higher High to give and we expect to start any time. Our target is $34000.
Do you think the 1D MA50 will hold or break? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The 1M MACD Bullish Cross puts a 50k target by December.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the first month following the MACD Bullish Cross on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. The previous bottom MACD Bullish Cross formations, where achieved with the price on the 0.786 (June 2019) and the 0.5 (December 2015) Fibonacci retracement levels respectively. On the current sequence, the price has hit the 0.5 Fib. In 2016 it took BTC 6 months to get to the 0.786 Fib, which sets a time estimate on December. The 0.786 Fib is this time at $50000 and that is our target for the end of the year.
DO you agree with the symmetry or have a different end-of-year target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- Bulls or bears, who will win?The beginning of the year also marked the start of a Bitcoin bull run with the main cryptocurrency almost doubling its value by mid-April.
The high of the year was followed by a two months correction (contained in a falling wedge) and a new leg up to this high zone followed.
In the last month or so, Bitcoin's price action is boring for swing traders, with the price ranging between 30k and 31.5.
On the bright side, the structure from the low is still very bullish with the price contained in an ascending channel and the clear continuation rectangle pattern in place, but for the price to gain traction a break above 31.5 is needed.
In this case, a rise to 35k becomes very probable.
On the other hand, a drop under 30k, although not altering the bullish overall structure could lead to more losses and in this case, 28k confluence support is exposed.
As a swing trader, my approach is wait and see
BITCOIN Consolidation above the Gaussian starts parabolic rally.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is establishing a consolidating position above the Gaussian Channel on the 1W time-frame for the 4th straight week. On all of previous Cycles, such break and consolidation above the Gaussian was the start of a parabolic rally.
As far as targets are concerned, on the first 2 Cycles, the rally reached at least the 3.0 Fibonacci extension level measuring from the previous Cycle High and the Gaussian break-out level. The last Cycle (no3) reached (and exceeded) the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Taking this 2.0 Fib 'worst' case scenario, we should be expecting this new rally to reach at least the $160000 mark.
Would you agree? Is your expected top higher or lower than 160k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- 35k could be nextSince the beginning of the year, Bitcoin is in an up trend contained in a nice rising channel, and after the break of the corrective falling wedge that followed the high of the year, the price rose again and for 3 weeks already is consolidating in this 30k zone.
This consolidation has formed a rectangle pattern which normally is a continuation pattern.
I expect this to be the case now and a new leg up will follow after the break above resistance.
35k is my target for BTC
Target is 59k (Bitcoin)I have been going on for some months about end of June being the next "Bitcoin event". The secret is that every year Bitcoin has a major pivot point , only one a year , which dictates the momentum for months, until the next date in the time sequence.
Here I go over back in May and state end of June is the time period for the next sequence. The only problem here was atleast for me it was not clear which way it was going to swing , even up until last week it could have flipped either way , last year things where much clearer because momentum was heavily to the downside.
As you can see we are on the 0.618 on this time fib and the reaction has been massive , we could be printing one of the biggest weekly candles in a long-time. These "event periods" are not small moves by any means , targets from here would be 59k.
Why 59k ? well bump and run reversal pattern target is 59k , last cycle Bitcoin did the same thing and hit the technical target.
As you can see it hit 13.5k a near perfect technical target from throwback , so far we have do the same and if we reach the technical target it would 59k.
What is also interesting is my Elliot wave indicator which is pretty dam good and pinpointing waves is signalling that the target range is also 56-59k target range.
Which also lines up with the 8/1 Gann Fan which is hovering around that 59k area also and to finish off we have a perfect 8/1 gann fann rejection of the USDT dominance.
So in the end this "event period" was a pivot to the upside not to the downside it seems that way for now , lets see how the weekly and monthly close.
So the next big date April 2024 which lines up with the Bitcoin halving , this fib date is more for Chainlink but still gives clues on where Bitcoin would be .
Something to note here not expecting all time high till October 2025 period.
Flash Crash or Bear Trap? (Bitcoin)The fact we are so close the Big Fib time date end of June 2023 and I still can't confirm which way this is going to swing is frustrating.
Last year it was so clear coming up to the fib date , this year price could swing either way.
For me there is two ways this is going to play out next 30-45days
1. We Flash crash down to retest the cycle low at 15k every cycle we create a double bottom , right now we keep be forming this crashing pattern that will take us back down to 15.5k.
As you can see it is a very distinct pattern it can appear in any timeframe , the higher the timeframe the longer it takes for the pattern to form .
There crashing patterns form everywhere not just Bitcoin.
So if it did flash crash then it would look very similar to 2015.
2.
Now the second outcome here is a massive bear trap and a massive move up to 40k end of June 2023.
Check this out.
We bounced massively off this moving average last time creating a huge bear trap. If it is going hold and reverse this is it , once we close under this moving average its over.
SPX500 bump and run reversal pattern still not reached its technical target .
We could still see a melt up in June 2023 for the SPX which would give a higher chance that Bitcoin hits 40k aswell.
So as you can see how things can swing each way , we break the yellow triangle and close above it for Bitcoin we go up or we continue making lower lows we will complete the crashing structure , guess we just have to wait.
Bitcoin held very well. Reversal could be nextBitcoin held its ground very well through Binance and Coinbase problems.
As we know, more often than not, when bad news is not affecting an asset and don't lead to a technical break, the asset is reversing to the upside and this also could be the case for BTC.
From a strictly technical perspective, 25k is strong confluence support, given by the trend line started at the beginning of the year and the horizontal level.
Also, the recent drop from 30k is corrective and a falling wedge.
Thant being said, BTC back above 27k would confirm the bullish outlook and could lead to a retest of the recent high or even a new one around 35k
BITCOIN Strong long-term buy signal by the BBWP!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just flashed one of the rarest buy signals on the 1W time-frame. The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) bottomed at 0%, giving a narrow width signal. Historically, when the price was above the 1W MA20 (red trend-line) during that signal (4 times/ green circle), it skyrocketed shortly after, while when it was below (1 time/ red circle) it dropped massively.
At the moment the price is on the 1W MA20 and it will be interesting to see if BTC closes above or below it, as it can influence the trend of the coming weeks. What do you think, will it close above it and skyrocket or below and decline? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin- Aggressive turn from 25kIn my yesterday's comment regarding BTC, I said that 25k is a strong floor for the price and dips in this zone should be bought.
Following Coinbase's news, Bitcoin dipped again, but this drop was very short-lived and the reversal was very aggressive, indicating bulls are very strong.
Technically we are still under the falling trend line that started in mid-April, but looking at the chart we can clearly see that the drop is corrective.
I'm strongly bullish at this moment and a break back above the 27500 level that I've mentioned before would bring additional confirmation for a potential rise to 30k.
Buy dips remain the recommended strategy as long as 25k holds and also a 1:3 R:R could be achieved with a good entry.
BITCOIN The Megaphone bottoms lower, unless this breaks first.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a new Lower Low since the short-term Channel Down started on April 14 and is rebounding in the past five hours. The long-term pattern remains a Bullish Megaphone and this Channel Down is the corrective wave towards the Higher Lows trend-line. For as long as it holds, it is likely to see it bottom on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just like it happened on the March 10 Higher Low.
Be prepared though to buy earlier if the price closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which hasn't happened since May 06 (exactly 1 month ago). In either case, our target is the next Resistance at 32400 (May 31 2022 High), which is where the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) is headed to, the last remaining MA Resistance.
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