BITCOIN always rallied when these 3 indicators alignedThis is our last Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart for 2022 and brings together the CN10Y (purple line), the U.S. Dollar Index (green trend-line) and the LTCBTC pair (orange trend-line). We've mentioned countless times in the past the importance of the DXY on Bitcoin and the strong effect that Litecoin (LTC) has as a leading indicator. Recently we've also made cases of the strong correlation of China's Bond Yields with BTC.
This cross study brings together all three and compares their price action against BTC. As you see, since BTC's early days, every time the CN10Y made a V-shaped reversal and started to rebound breaking its Lower Highs trend-line, while the DXY started to fall after a rejection on its Higher Highs trend-line and the LTCBTC pair broke above its Falling Wedge, Bitcoin was in the early stages of a hyper aggressive rally.
With the stock markets not at their best but having posted a 2 month recovery, while the cryptocurrency market's credibility viciously hammered by the FTX and LUNA collapses, will this strong 3 indicator emergence be enough to put Bitcoin back into long-term bullish territory?
Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The complete Cycle mapping. Will you miss out on this?This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame. The current and past Cycles have been classified into Bull (green Channel) and Bear (red Channel). With an (unorthodox) use of the Pitchfan we identified the key trend-lines that have historically shaped both Bull and Bear Cycles and might continue to do so in the future.
The recent Bear Cycle has been driven by the 0.7 Pitchfan F (dotted). The new Bull Cycle should evolve around the 1.0 PF (solid blue) as the last two have mostly traded below their respective lines but peaked exactly after hitting them. This is of particular interest to us as the 1.0 (Bull Cycle) blue line leads to the 0.8 (Bear Cycle) orange line. Long-term investors should consider their crossing as the High of the next Bull Cycle may form there.
As to when to buy? Well where couldn't be a better time than now. The recent FTX low has been 1428 days since the bottom of the 2018 Bear Cycle, which is the exact same time as it took itself from the previous (2014) Cycle. Moreover the STOCH RSI is at the level where BTC historically bottomed and started the new Bull Cycle.
Do you think this is a unique long-term buy opportunity for Bitcoin and if so can the next top be near 200k? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN has always started a rally when Dow did this.This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) against Bitcoin (BTCUSD) illustrated by the black trend-line. Every since September and the touch of its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), Dow has been rallying, having recovered more than 50% of the 2022 losses.
With regards to Bitcoin, perhaps the most important development is that Dow is rebounding after its 2M RSI bounced off the Support that is holding for more than 10 years (since 2011). This level has always started BTC's strong rally within Dow's Secular Macro Bull Cycle (SMBC). At the same time the LMACD made a Bullish Cross shortly after. Right now the indicator is close to making the first Bullish Cross since October 2020.
Is this time different?
Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN: Local Update, Next Formation to Point to Final Setup!Hello Community,
Welcome to this Update-Analysis of Bitcoin on the local timeframe perspective of mine. Since my recent analysis of the local timeframe perspective of Bitcoin, the major inverse head-and-shoulder formation I mentioned has finally been completed and Bitcoin moved on to reach out to all projected target zones appropriately. To have a better view on the technical developments going on here I changed the timeframe from the 2-hour to the 4-hour timeframe perspective as the formation Bitcoin is forming here has extended.
As when looking at my chart now we can watch there how Bitcoin since moving into the final inverse head-and-shoulder target zones has firstly pulled back below the ascending trendline again and is now forming an interesting decisive formation from where further determinations need to be awaited. Especially important in this case is the $16740 support marked in my chart in orange which is also the price equilibrium of the channel Bitcoin is forming in this area. The Price-Equilibrium-Channel marked in orange in my chart is the region from where Bitcoin will show up with the final breakout either in the upper or lower direction.
Now it is essential to notice here that Bitcoin has still strong support confirmed by the 60-MA and as long as Bitcoin is holding above this support it is a base from where Bitcoin has a higher likelihood possibility to build upon and form a final bullish breakout as seen in my chart rather than breaking to the downside and confirming the MA as resistance. Therefore as long as Bitcoin remains above the support zone the possibility for a final breakout is 65% and if this scenario emerges Bitcoin will run into the $17600 resistance again, if Bitcoin manages to breakout above this resistance there are even more potentials activated. For now the final confirmation will point to the final scenario and once this happened further conclusions are going to arise.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching. Let's move forward together.
The information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
The AMAZING BITCOIN MERRY CHRISTMAS CYCLE!Hello Community,
Welcome to this Merry Christmas View 2022 on Bitcoin of mine. The year of 2022 is nearing to be completed and to this occasion, Bitcoin is on the edge to a historical pattern to start again, this pattern is what I have detected in analyzing the Bitcoin chart and this pattern is pointing out that Bitcoin is building this paramount Merry Christmas Cycle which already completed three times in Bitcoins past always completing with a historical high on the Christmas Period of each ending cycle. Also when looking at my chart we can watch there that within each cycle Bitcoin is forming several new all-time highs each one formed within the Christmas Eve of each year.
An amazing characteristic of each cycle is also that within the beginning of the cycle marked with the letter A in my chart a new low is formed which ends the bear market and starts the new Christmas Cycle. Therefore, as Christmas is emerging this year again this means that the cycle is likely to start from this point on again as seen in my chart, and in this context, the projection of the cycle expansion is also seen in my chart with Bitcoin to touch the upper boundary of the ascending channel again with the ending of the fourth historical Christmas Cycle.
The important thing here with the underlying empirical significance of the cycle is that it always worked perfectly in the past which means that there is a very high possibility given that Bitcoin shows up with the exact same cycle again. Especially when the lower ascending trendline of the huge ascending channel holds in the next months it will be a sure indication for the cycle to have emerged again and to continue over the upcoming Christmas Eves. In any case it will be a very interesting time ahead for Bitcoin and the whole Cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency are being more and more adopted in the classical financial economy there is a solid reason to constitute that the Cryptocurrency journey has not even reached its climax yet.
In this manner, a Merry Christmas to everybody, have a joyful time with you and your families to unwrap the delights of Christmas!
The information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITCOIN - One Channel, Two Breakout Scenarios!Hello Community,
the year of 2023 is coming to an end and before the year is ending I spotted major signs in Bitcoin that will build the cornerstones for the Bitcoin price action development moving forward into 2023. These signs are what I am going to discuss in this analysis. If you already watched my previous ideas you already saw that there are massive bullish indications on the more middle and long-term perspective with Bitcoin having the potential to show up with a huge rally moving into the weeks and months of 2023. Nevertheless, on the more shorter term perspectives there are still fluctuations and potentials of volatility developments into both directions till Bitcoin finally found the trend that will complete the paramount formation on the long term.
Therefore, as when looking at my chart we can watch there how Bitcoin is trading in this major parallel channel formation that is inclined to the upside with support within the lower boundary and resistance within the upper boundary. Now what is important here to notice is that Bitcoin has a stronger support within the lower boundary as it bounced there more often and the buying volume is also higher than the selling volume. This means that there is a solid potential given for Bitcoin to finally bounce above the primary desceding resistance line marked in red which will create the first bearish invalidation. When Bitcoin settles above this area there are further bullish potentials given otherwise when this does not happen and Bitcoin confirms the resistance this will result in the invalidation of the bullish scenario and completion of the whole channel as a bear-flag.
Taking these two scenarios into perspective the bullish scenario currently has a higher possibility given nevertheless this can change also again if Bitcoin should show up with more intense selling pressure. In any case, what is necessary here is to await the final confirmations with Bitcoin either breaking out the upper resistance or the lower support till further measurements can be made. Once the final confirmation has settled the percentage height of the channel formation can be used as a measurement to the final target zone of the breakout this will result in a target of $18,000 when the bullish breakout settles and a target of $14,000 when the bearish breakout settles.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, Let's move forward together.
The information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITCOIN The RSI is the key and is hanging from a thread.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1D time-frame is consolidating while the RSI just bounced on its Higher Lows trend-line that started after the FTX crash (November 09). This is as tight as it can get in terms of a Support as throughout the whole year, when the RSI broke below its Higher Lows, the price dropped aggressively (red zones).
Right now we are on a hold or break point. Do you think this pattern will continue and a break below the RSI Higher Lows will deliver a new drop of at least -26% (that would push the price to around 13500) or this time is different?
Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin could rise above 20k in medium termBack at the beginning of November, Bitcoin has broken under important 18k zone support and had 2 or 3 spikes under 16k.
The drop was expected, considering that it was the fourth month of consolidation before the break. However, the main crypto didn't continue to drop as low as one would expect and instead bounced back up from 16k.
This for me is a bullish sign and a relief rally could come next.
Technically, 16k offers support, and 18k and slightly above zone is resistance.
In the eventuality of a new rise and test of this resistance, I expect a break above, and bulls could look for a rise to the next important level at around 21k.
BITCOIN Has a mountain to climb but theres light down the tunnelIndeed Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is far from being at its best shape as not onlt was it rejected last week on the 2D MA50 (blue trend-line) but the RSI did so also on a Resistance Zone holding since last March.
The pattern since the June low is a Falling Wedge and that won't seen to be able to break to the upside unless the price breaks above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) which by the first week of January should enter the Falling Wedge. Only then, after breaking this trend-line that has been intact since December 31 2021, can we expect Bitcoin to turn bullish long-term. Until then, the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Falling Wedge poses as the next rejection point/ Resistance.
The only indication showing that there may be light down the tunnel for Bitcoin is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). This has been dropping significantly since September 26 and even though as you see on the chart they have a negative correlation, Bitcoin broke this after the FTX crash. With the Dollar continuing to drop, it would appear that when the crypto market gets past this fundamental effect of fear and uncertainty it left, it will shoot up aggressively to cover the lost ground to the upside.
Do you think the market is far from getting back to normal again and capitalize the Dollar drop? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN 50% of stocks above 1D MA200 = RallyThis is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame compared to the S&P500 index (SPX) illustrated by the blue trend-line. The indicator below (black trend-line) shows that historically when 50% of the S&P500 stocks break above their 1D MA200, both Bitcoin and the S&P500 start a rally soon.
Initially a few weeks of volatility takes place but the process already kicks in. Bitcoin's RSI is displayed in orange to give a better perspective of where we could be historically compared to prior bottoms. As you see, it tends to lag behind the stocks' indicator when it breaks above 50% .
Do you think the pattern will be repeated again? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Pivot rejection, important 4H MA50 test! Buy or sell?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) immediately got rejected upon entering the 18200 - 18900 Pivot Zone (blue), which as we mentioned in our previous analysis was the former Support Zone from June until November (having multiple rebounds/ circles) now turned into a Resistance.
The price broke again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is headed towards the Support of the 4H MA50 (red trend-line). This is a critical Support level as within the greater Falling Wedge pattern that started on the June 18 Low, every time the price broke below it after a Lower High, a major sell-off was initiated.
However all Lower Highs (peaks) within the Falling Wedge, have take place after BTC broke above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), even marginally (green circles - August 15, September 13 and November 05). This hasn't happened yet on this Nov/ Dec rally and the 1D MA100 is currently just above yesterday's peak, inside the Pivot Zone and a little lower than the Falling Wedge's top (Lower Highs trend-line).
As a result, unless the 4H MA50 breaks, we still believe there is (at least) some upside left on this BTC rally. Perhaps the 1D RSI can give an additional edge to finding the top after it enters its Resistance Zone. Below the 4H MA50, we expect 16000 to be tested while even a Lower Low on the Wedge's bottom is possible.
As for the long-term, only a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which is unbroken for nearly 1 year (since December 31 2021), can restore the bullish trend and confirm the new Bull Cycle.
So what do you think? Is there one left High to make or Bitcoin will break below the 4H MA50 first? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Can a 5th straight monthly inflation drop save the day??The talk of the day is the U.S. CPI which moments ago came out lower than expected (7.1% against a 7.3% forecast), marking the 5th straight month that inflation dropped. This is in fact the 2nd straight month of lower than expected CPI. The question is, will this be enough to mark the end of the Bear Cycle on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and save the day?
Well that also depends on the Fed which tomorrow decides upon the new Interest Rate. Technically though, BTC broke today above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in over 1 month (since November 08) and the FTX crash. Even though that is a strong bullish signal alone on the short-term, the picture is more complicated on the long-term.
As you see, the price has been trading within a Channel Down since the July 26 low. The RSI on the 1W time-frame though has been on a Channel Up, signaling a Bullish Divergence here, potentially hinting to a long-term bullish break-out. Until then, the focus is on the Resistance levels in the form of the Fibonacci levels within this Channel Down. But perhaps the biggest pressure will be on the (red) Pivot Zone, which from June 18 until November 08 had multiple test and hold events, and now is the Symmetrical Resistance. A break above should happen at the same time the price breaks above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Channel Down.
Beyond that point, we will be looking for a break above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to confirm the uptrend, as it has been untouched for nearly 1 year (since December 31 2021). That would target the 22800 Resistance (1) and 25275 Resistance (2) on the medium-term.
On the other hand, a Pivot and Channel top rejection will be a bearish signal targeting at least the 0.5 Channel Fib.
Which scenario do you think is more likely? Is the CPI and Fed coming to the rescue? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Historical Buy Signal is flashingBitcoin (BTCUSD) remains supported on the 1W MA350 (red trend-line) following the FTX crash. A rare indicator, the Gaussian Channel (GC), remains red but based on previous Cycles, by the time it turns green, Bitcoin already has the first mini rally of the new Bull Cycle.
The previous two GC Cycles from the end of the previous red period to the end of the next red period extended for 1260 and 1280 days respectively. If the 1280 day max is repeated during this Cycle also then the GC should flash green by January 30 2023. That means that historically there isn't much time left to start the 1st rally of the new Bull Cycle.
Also by using the Fibonacci extension and retracement levels we see that the first two Cycles topped a little over the 1.414 Fib extension, while the bottoms of the first three Cycles have been above the 0.618 Fib retracement level. As diminishing returns are in effect on each Cycle, which in theory should narrow Bitcoin's channel long-term, the last Cycle topped lower on the 1.236 Fib (which is where the last High before the Top was formed in the previous two Cycles). If the channel does narrow down, then we bottom should also be higher and the next candidate would be the 0.5 Fib, which is slightly below the recent November low.
With the Gaussian Channel pattern pointing to the 1st rally soon, the MA350 holding and the 0.5 Fib potentially the new Cyclical Support, we have perhaps the strongest buy signal of this Cycle flashing right now.
Do you think that's the best time to buy? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN and S&P500 Has a 10 year Bull phase just started?A 1 year correction which is nothing but common throughout Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) existence, has done its work well in spreading fear and doubt at the market during this inflationary stock crisis in 2022. In times like this what helps the most is to maintain a long-term perspective and look at how history reacted in similar situations.
We thought that nothing can help us get a better grasp at the situation than look into how Bitcoin compares to the major stock index the S&P500 (SPX). On this 1M time-frame, Bitcoin is displayed by the orange trend-line while the S&P500 by the blue. We are looking into the S&P500's price action since the Great Depression. As you see the index repeats through history four major phases:
* The Bear Phase (red), where the index gets into a Megaphone pattern and has two major correction sequences. It breaks initially below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and then below the 1M MA200 (black trend-line).
* The Accumulation Phase (blue), where the index starts recovering from the Bear Phase and breaks above both the 1M MA100 and MA200, turning sideways. This is technically the most efficient/ earliest available level to enter the market.
* The Expansion Phase (yellow), where the index established trading above the 1M MA100/200 (never breaks them until the next Bear Phase) and makes the first multi-year rise. This Phase is marked by three "smaller" correction periods (red ellipses).
* The Bull Phase (green), where the index recovers from the last small correction and rises aggressively to form the top before the new Bear Phase. It tends to last around 10 years.
This year's correction (2022) is the third one of the Expansion Phase and as the price remains above the 1M MA100, it is more likely that with the correction already completed, S&P500 has entered its new Bull Phase.
The chart clearly shows that Bitcoin's 12 year period of immense growth has only been during the S&P500's Accumulation and Expansion Phases. This suggests that we may haven't seen yet it's strongest growth to come during the stock market's new Bull Phase! The correlation of Bitcoin's tops and bottoms to those of the S&P500 is more than obvious.
Most market participants say that this time is different due to the soaring inflation and aggressive rate hikes. But hasn't this also been the narrative in the late 70s? Still the market found the mechanisms to grow in the Expansion Phase that followed and the new technologies (internet etc) to inflate it to immense highs in the 90s until the eventual crashes of the 00s. It may seem like a different reason each time but the behavior is always cyclical with repeating patterns and phases, the narrative in the past 100 years can be whatever the news decide it to be. But the market will continue printing and printing the same patterns as human behavior stays the same.
So what do you think, are we about to witness the growth of a lifetime on both Bitcoin and stocks in the next 10 years? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN, Yuan and China bond yields point to rally ahead!You might be thinking what the Chinese Yuan (USDCNY displayed by the red trend-line) and China's bond yields (CN20Y displayed by the blue trend-line) have to do with BITCOIN (BTCUSD). This chart comes to show just how strong the correlation is.
As you see since 2012, every time the CN20Y broke above its Lower Highs trend-line, Bitcoin started its Bull Cycle rally. This makes the two assets strongly positively correlated. In addition, when that happened, it always coincided with the USDCNY starting a major fall (red circle on the chart, making the two assets mostly negatively correlated. In fact Bitcoin has had its Bull Cycles in major long-term USDCNY falls and its Bear Cycle in major USDCNY rises.
Right now the CN20Y is testing the 2021/2022 Lower Highs trend-line again. Do you think a break above it would start Bitcoin's new major Bull rally? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN Bullish Cross aims at $21000 at least.The MACD on the 3D time-frame is about to complete a Bullish Cross today. If the session closes that way, it will only be the 5th time since July 2021 of this occurence.
The past four events made Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rally on a minimum of +26.50% and maximum of + 65.15%. From the current levels, that gives a min rise at $21000 and maximum at $27500.
Even the minimum would put BTC above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which has been the strongest Resistance of this Bear Cycle, rejecting the price since the start of the year.
What do you think? Will this Bullish Cross push Bitcoin to at least 21000 and if it does, will the 1D MA200 break-out be the start of the new Bull Cycle? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The Golden 51%-49% Ratio is back! Is this the next top?After the interest that the revised version of my Logarithmic Channel model attracted, I thought I'd extend it by adding a few more elements, most notable of which Tradingshot's very own Golden 51%-49% Ratio!
Basically I've been asked continuously to make an update on that legendary chart, so here is an extension, though I promise I will also make an update with the original minimal pattern.
For those who don't know how this Ratio works, it basically suggests that on each Cycle, the phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically it claims that the Halving is roughly at the middle of each Bull Cycle.
As the Logarithmic Growth Channel suggest that November 2022 was the absolute bottom of the 2022 Bear Cycle, we can now use the next Halving (number 4) and apply the 51%-49% Golden Ratio. Halving 4 is projected to be on May 26 2024 and based on the Ratio that puts the High of Cycle 5 near the end of November 2025. On every Cycle, once the Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line broke, BTC started officially the Rise, which after the Halving turns parabolic.
Do you think a $200k Bitcoin realistic during Cycle 5 based on the combination of this two patterns? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Financial Wave. BTC m15Our priority scenario for Bitcoin remains the same, growth to $18,000-18,800 is possible in the coming days, a fall in the price of bitcoin below $16,000 cancels this scenario. The form of wave 3 movement does not imply a long flat, so a prolonged sideways movement also does not fit into our scenario
BITCOIN Long and painful but necessary bottom process!We rarely post Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analyses on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, but this one does justice is showing the complete long-term picture.
On a monthly basis, Bitcoin has been forming a bottom since the June Low, within a zone formed by the Fibonacci MA and Multiple 1. At the same time the 1M RSI has been trading exactly at the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that goes back to April 2013.
This is the painful but necessary bottom process that BTC has to go through on all of its Cycles and it appears that it bears more resemblance with the early 2015 sequence. The cyclical pattern on every Cycle is the same. Lower Lows, a Resistance and a Cup like formation which after it breaks the Resistance starts the parabolic rally to the new Cycle High. Based on this model, the next Resistance break-out may not happen until early 2024.
What are your thoughts on this? Is Bitcoin about to complete a painful but necessary bottom process? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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Financial Wave. BTC m15Our priority scenario for Bitcoin is growth in wave 3 to $18,000-18,800. In the event of a fall to $16,000, this scenario is cancelled.
In support of BTC, we note that the mood of crypto investors is negative, many close their portfolios in the red, there is no desire to buy from small investors, while the Whales consistently fill their Bitcoin wallets. As they say, buying at $17,000 is expensive, but at $67,000 it will seem very profitable (sarcasm)