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BITCOIN Long and painful but necessary bottom process!We rarely post Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analyses on the 1M (monthly) time-frame, but this one does justice is showing the complete long-term picture. On a monthly basis, Bitcoin has been forming a bottom since the June Low, within a zone formed by the Fibonacci MA and Multiple 1. At the same time the 1M RSI has been trading exactly at the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that goes back to April 2013. This is the painful but necessary bottom process that BTC has to go through on all of its Cycles and it appears that it bears more resemblance with the early 2015 sequence. The cyclical pattern on every Cycle is the same. Lower Lows, a Resistance and a Cup like formation which after it breaks the Resistance starts the parabolic rally to the new Cycle High. Based on this model, the next Resistance break-out may not happen until early 2024. What are your thoughts on this? Is Bitcoin about to complete a painful but necessary bottom process? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
41
BITCOIN Log Growth Curve the only pattern that matters right nowOn this chart we seen Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on its historic Logarithmic Channel (LC), the channel that has been trading in since its inception and will put emphasis on its Growth Curve which is the pattern we popularized here since early 2019. See how well the model has been containing the price action going more than 3 years back: Back to today now. As you see on this chart, which as we mention is the only chart you should care about right now, Bitcoin following the FTX crash hit the bottom of its Logarithmic Channel (LG), displayed by the green line, which historically has proven to be the ultimate buy level, with strong rallies following shortly after. Since then it has been trading on the green line, which we call the Growth Curve (GC), showing the first signs of a new, and most likely the final, accumulation phase. As long as it stays within the GC and the dotted line above, BTC will continue to accumulate. Above that, the first historic Resistance in an upcoming Bull Cycle is the Blue line, which kept the price at bay for most of the 2012 and 2015/16 Cycles, before the parabolic rally that capped the Bull Cycle. The yellow line is a typical pivot line during both Bull and Bear Cycles, as you see it held the first waves of the 2021/22 Bear Cycle before eventually failing. The orange line, is the level where investors typically look to sell and exit the Bull Cycle, while the zone formed by the upper dotted line and the red one has historically been an absolute (extremely overbought) belt. Right now the price is on the absolute bottom of this model that has never failed while having the Multiple 8 (grey trend-line) just below it, which also has never been broken and marked the bottoms of March 2020, August 2015 and November 2011. Are you a buyer or a seller based on this? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
21
BITCOIN: Weekly, Constellation to Determine Potential Shift!Hello Community, Welcome to this analysis of Bitcoin from a weekly timeframe perspective. As mentioned in the last analysis ideas about Bitcoin I uploaded within recent times Bitcoin is forming several decisive constellations as Bitcoin completed the local inverse head-and-shoulder-formation I pointed out on the 2-hour timeframe perspective this has been an initial move into a changing direction for Bitcoin. Nonetheless, Bitcoin on the daily is still trading within this descending channel formation in which a strong resistance is given through the distribution channel analyzed. Now on the weekly timeframe perspective, I detected further signs that are worthwhile to look at to have a sense on where Bitcoin is heading over the course of the next days and weeks. Looking at my chart we can watch there Bitcoin is building two major formations here, the first formation is a local descending-triangle-formation and the second formation is a global descending-triangle-formation. The global formation will only confirm when the local formation completes, therefore it is necessary that Bitcoin finalizes the wave-count within the local descending-triangle-formation and from there on shows up with a strong breakout that has the ability to finally continue with an upthrust above the upper boundary of the global ascending-triangle-formation. In this case, it is highly necessary that Bitcoin holds the 13,800 support as shown in my chart because if Bitcoin should breakdown this support both formations will be invalidated. Once Bitcoin finally settles above the boundary of the global formation this will be the final setup for Bitcoin to show up with this main expansion wave to test remaining supports. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, Let's move forward together. The information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
12
BITCOIN & the USDT Dominance point to a fast reversal!This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame drawn against the USDT dominance. For better comparison purposes both are displayed in candle bars, BTC being on top, USDT Dom at the bottom. The essence of this comparison is to find a behavioral pattern that can help us estimate which phase of the Cycle BTC could be at. As you see, the USDT Dom is printing a pattern, technical top formation that has been previously associated with market bottoms on Bitcoin. In the past two weeks, the USDT Dom has started to pull-back and that very same sequence in July 2020 and February 2019 extended the drops, which was translated into an instant rally on Bitcoin. Even in the case of the August 31 2020 week and the injection that sent the USDT Dom (much) higher following the initial pull-back, the price quickly get back to its harmonized levels and fell back massively. BTC has already started to react favorably to this 2-week USDT Dom pull-back. Do you think it can keep up this momentum and if this is indeed a USDT D. top are we ahead of a strong rally? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
8
BITCOIN: On The Local, Formation Points To Breakout-Dynamics!Hello Community, Welcome to this analysis of Bitcoin from the local 2-hour timeframe perspective. In the recent posts I uploaded about Bitcoin I already pointed out the important factors from a daily and weekly perspective and what we need to consider with these timeframes. As especially on the shorter timeframe there are given potentials to bounce Bitcoin is now also forming an interesting constellation on the 4-hour timeframe. When looking at my chart we can watch there how Bitcoin developed this solid primary ascending trend line marked in grey on which Bitcoin already bounced several times. This whole structure is adding up to a potential inverse head-and-shoulder formation with the left shoulder and the head already completed, now as Bitcoin penetrates the 50-EMA this is a decisive development because once Bitcoin breaks out above the neckline as shown in my chart this will be the final setup from where Bitcoin is likely to continue with further volatility finally reaching out the final target-zones as seen in my chart. Although such a formation can invalidate also when the right shoulder does not form and Bitcoin breaks down currently there is a higher likelihood given for the formation to complete nonetheless it will be a crucial factor on how Bitcoin moves into the final target zones when considering further dynamics to emerge especially on the higher timeframes. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, Let's move forward together. The information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
6
BITCOIN Weekly RSI has bottomed and leads the way to 19k first.This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W (weekly) time-frame. The focus is on the Bearish Megaphone that has been running since the April 12 2021 High, drawn on the weekly candle bodies, ignoring the wicks. This is the pattern that has been dominating the whole Bear Cycle since its beginning, with the October - November fake-out rally excluded as its was the peak of a stock market euphoria at the end of the post COVID quantitative easing. As you see, since the FTX crash (November 07 2022 candle), BTC is trading sideways on the 3rd straight flat week ranging within 15550 - 17150. At the same time, the 1W RSI hit the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bear Cycle's Falling Wedge, and has been rebounding. This could be an early indication that the long-term trend is shifting. On the short-term a potential rebound is limited to the Inner Lower Highs trend-line (dashed). The medium-term turns bullish only above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line), which has been intact for the whole year (since January 02 2022). If broken the medium-term targets are the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). On year-to-year basis, the target can be much higher. Look at how the current FTX Low was made on the -1.0 Fibonacci extension, counting from the first High and Low of the Bearish Megaphone. If the exact same symmetry plays out on the upside, then the 2.0 Fibonacci extension is located a little over $120000 (see chart below or narrow down the horizontal axis on the main chart). Is this the start of a long-term bullish move for Bitcoin? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
3
BITCOIN Targeting $18500 short-termSimple 1D time-frame analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) showing that since the March 28 High, every drop was followed by a rebound to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Out of a total 3 occasions, in two of them the 0.5 Fib top matched by a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) rejection. Right the 4H MA200 is exactly on the 0.5 Fib at around $18500. Is that your short-term target? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN If this level holds, expect 50k on the next rally.This is an interesting finding on the 1W time-frame, showing Bitcoin (BTCUSD) within a Channel Up since December 2017 High (of the previous Cycle). Below we analyze frame by frame the similarities and differences, key pressure levels and how those can make a projection for the following months. ** Triangle.. then flush ** A key component of this is the pattern that preceded the FTX crash. As you see that was a Triangle (blue), with the FTX crash displayed by the strong 1W red candle that followed. Before that crash, the price was effectively supported on the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The very same Triangle was seen on the 2018 Bear Cycle, up until the week of November 12 2018. Two strong 1W red candles followed, which after a rather flat green, gave way to another two red weeks that priced the bottom. Notice that during both Triangles, the 1W LMACD flattened. So far following the FTX candle, we've had another (flat) red and this week (so far) a green one. Relative to the 2018 fractal, the price should be proportionately positioned where the red circle is. This implicates that after the green 1W candle, another two red ones should follow and the bottom will be in. How far those final red candles can go is anyone's guess but if they follow the (not so strong compared to 2018) FTX candle or even more so the flat 2nd red week that followed, then they could be rather limited in extent. This however goes in contrast to the total correction of the 2018 Bear Cycle, which was approximately -84%. A repeat of that magnitude would put BTC below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of this long-term Channel Up, but the same took place on the week of March 09 2020, with the COVID flash crash, which broke the Channel's bottom rapidly on a wick and then rebounded almost instantly. ** The 1st Support - 1st Resistance pattern ** Another important aspect of this Channel is where the price had its 1st Support after the Top was made and the Bear Cycle started and where it found its 1st Resistance after the bottom and the start of the new Bull Cycle. In early 2018, BTC had the 0.5 Fibonacci level as the 1st Support level that contained the downfall before the eventual sell-off to the Triangle. In 2021/22, that 1st Support level was on the 0.618 Fib. In 2019 the 1st Resistance level that put a stop to the first rally on the new Bull Cycle was again Fib 0.5, displaying a perfect symmetry. If the same pattern is continued, then the initial rally that will follow in the new Bull Cycle, should stop on the 0.618 Fib, i.e. slightly above $50000. For a more effective comparison, we have plotted the 2019/20 sequence (black trend-line) on today's price action onwards. Not surprisingly, it is rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci level, a little over $50k. That is of course, assuming that the next two weekly (1W) candles will be not as aggressive as in late 2018. If they are and the bottom of the Channel is hit, we can expect a bottom within $13000 - 12000. Do you think we are very close to pricing the bottom and if so, is this model correct to predict 50k on the next rally? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
21
This Historical FRACTAL Could Mean BITCOINs BLAST Is NEAR!!!Hello Community, Welcome to this new analysis of Bitcoin from the weekly timeframe perspective. As mentioned in my recent analysis of Bitcoin from a more Near-Term-Perspective Bitcoin is at a crucial turning point as it shows a Descending-Channel from where a breakout either to the upside or further development in the channel is indicated. As I watched the bigger timeframe now I saw that Bitcoin from the weekly timeframe perspective is actually about to develop a major fractal which already formed three times in a row in Bitcoins past therefore this is a sign worthwhile looking at because if this fractal completes again a paramount Bitcoin Expansion can be waiting around the corner. When looking at my chart we can watch there this main fractal consists of three main phases named A, B, and C. In phase A an Accumulation-Triangle is formed marked in orange in my chart, in this phase first bounces to the upside indicating that Bitcoin is ready for a bigger move and a potential breakout above the 15-EMA. In phase B the final breakout above the 15-EMA happens with Bitcoin settling above the EMA indicating Bitcoin is ready to move further. In phase C the actual Bull-Expansion emerges with major Volatility-Spreads and Bitcoin continues with huge volatilities till new Cycle-Peaks are reached. Since the bear market ended in 2018 this fractal has been completed three times. When looking at this whole structure what is also a primary determining factor here is the fact that Bitcoin is testing this Primary Trend-Ascending-Trendline again marked in blue in my chart. This trendline is so important because Bitcoin already bounced there several times in the past and always had the ability to show up with the fractal after the successful bounce off this trendline. This means now that when Bitcoin manages to bounce in this trendline again this has a high likelihood possibility to be the cornerstone of a new fractal and the initiation of phase A of this fractal as it showed up in the past. Of course, it is necessary to await the final confirmations here which are an Accumulation-Triangle and a final breakout above the central 15-EMA. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, Let's move forward together. The information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by VincePrince
10
TOTAL CRYPTO-CAP, Retest of the Primary Formation Indicated!Hello Community, Welcome to my new analysis of the Total Cryptocurrency Market-Cap and where it is heading in the next time. Important to notice here with the Total Cryptocurrency Market-Cap is that the price action made a sharp dip towards the downside beginning just hours after the FTX collapse has been officially announced as I already pointed out in my recent Bitcoin analysis. To take this into the current context it is necessary to realize that this dip may not happen if the FTX collapse did not happen at this point, therefore this sharp bearish wave can be considered as an unnatural movement nevertheless it has completed a crucial formation and this is the important point in this whole structure. As the Total Cryptocurrency Market-Cap completed this massive head-shoulder-formation this gives the whole movement a bearish edge also from the technical perspective. Now it is necessary to wage the possibilities and see where the market is likely to move and in this case, the market is now forming this interesting local descending triangle formation which is likely to complete as it is marked in my chart, once this formation has been completed it will be the setup for the market to continue and show up with a volatility relief rally till further levels are being tested. In this case, once the formation has been completed the market is likely to move on into the head and shoulder decisive range as seen in my chart, from there on two directions are possible, firstly the market manages to move into this range with a very strong bullish movement giving the indication for a breakthrough above the resistance and declaring the formation as a fake head shoulder formation and the second direction will be a pullback from the resistance from where on the price action is likely to reach out the final targets of the head shoulder formation, currently, the second scenario has a higher possibility nonetheless this can change when the market shows up with a considerable bullish strength. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, Let's move forward together. "Diligence is the cornerstone of good fortune." The information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by VincePrince
2
BITCOIN $19000 and the importance of the Channel's medianSince the May 31 High and the subsequent sell-off, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern. We've plotted the Fibonacci retracement levels and the +/- 0.5 upper and lower extensions, in order to see potential pressure points/ levels. As you see, the Channel's median (Fibonacci 0.5) has been dominating the price action with six so far (including the one three days ago) touches, all of which initiated rebounds. The 1D RSI and MACD (Bullish Cross) sequences indicate that the current consolidation on Fib 0.5 resembles that of August 28 - September 07. That pattern fueled a rebound that stopped just above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.786 Fib. As long as the 0.5 Fib holds, the short-term target is the 0.786 Fib. It is worth mentioning that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), unbroken since December 31 2021, is now closer than even to the Channel Down. A closing above it can potentially test the 1.5 Fibonacci extension of the Channel. On the other hand, two closing in a row below the 0.5, can target instantly the 0.236 Fib, even the bottom of the Channel. Which way do you think Bitcoin will break to first? Top or Bottom of the Channel? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
10
This might changed everything for Bitcoin!I know it's a messy chart but lucky we have to focus on just a few things! As we just got the message that most FED officials backed slowing the pace of rate hikes we did see a small pump for BTC and a dump for the DXY. For the DXY I would like us to stay under $110 ish. For Bitcoin we have a few levels to watch closely. First the key levels to watch if we want to see upwards momentum: •16.8k •17.5k •18.6k And some key levels for the downside: •15.8k •15.5k •14.8k The explanation was to hit approximately 14.8k after we did broke the triangle but after the news we have gotten today we can hopefully throw this out of the window. Trade safe!
by Mynameisnotrelevant
1
BITCOIN, Massive Channel TO Show Final Outcome!Hello Community, Welcome to my new analysis of Bitcoin from the daily timeframe perspective. Since the FTX crypto collapse, massive liquidation were triggered within the crypto market and Bitcoin all-together with other major cryptocurrencies showed up with a devastating plunge to the downside which is likely not have happened if the FTX exchange at this time the second biggest exchange within the crypto market collapsed. The interesting thing here is that Bitcoin actually follows a pattern with fractals in this pattern as Bitcoin showed a similar fractal-dump already in the U.S.-Dollar index within August as seen in my chart. Taking these events into perspective now, as it is seen within my chart, Bitcoin is trading in a paramount Descending-Channel-Formation with the Accumulation-Channel in the lower boundaries and the Distribution-Channel in the upper boundaries. Now as Bitcoin is testing the lower Accumulation-Channel again this is a crucial situation as Bitcoin from here on shows a second Accumulation-And-Breakout-Fractal as it already formed within the bigger channel. Therefore, once Bitcoin manages to break out the Accumulation-Channel a rally is likely to continue till the Distribution-Channel is reached once again. The final crucial determination of the concluding trend direction will come once Bitcoin is in the Distribution-Channel again because if Bitcoin manages to hold this area and built up bullishly on it this will be the setup for a final breakout above the upper boundary and converting into the scenario A seen in my chart. Otherwise, if Bitcoin should confirm the upper Distribution-Channel together with the upper boundary and the 100-EMA as resistance again the bearish fractal and second scenario B is likely to be triggered again and Bitcoin will continue till the Accumulation-Channel is tested again, it will be an interesting determining journey ahead. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, Let's move forward together. "Each new day the market has a new shape. Just the patterns repeat." The information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
13
BITCOIN Huge volume signaling the end of the Bear Market?Two weeks ago, we saw the strongest weekly volume in more than a year, fueled by the collapse of FTX. This is a good opportunity to historically examine the effect of such huge volume spikes on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). On this 1W chart, we see that such volume spikes tend to be associated with trend reversals on BTC. In recent price action in particular, we've had a similar volume spike on June 13 2022. Practically same volume spikes between a 5 month period. As this chart shows, volume spikes of such a period or shorter have historically been either Bottom or Top formations. The previous such volume pattern was between January 11 2021 - May 17 2021 and was the formation of the Bull Cycle Top. The one before was between November 19 2018 - May 13 2019 and was the bottom formation of the Bear Cycle. Before that we've had the Bull Cycle Top formation of the December 18 2017 - February 05 2018 volume spikes. Finally the Bottom formation of the 2014/15 Bear Cycle was made on the January 12 2015 - November 02 2015 spikes. The latter is the pattern that has the most similarities with the current one (June 13 - November 07 2022) as there is a Lower Highs (Bottom) trend-line involved. Can the November 07 volume spike be the moment that gives the trend reversal to bullish and get Bitcoin out of this two year Bear Cycle or is it simply a short-term rebound at best like the June 13 2022 and February 05 2018 volume spikes? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
BITCOIN The Fib-Dollar Cheat sheet says the bottom is formedThis analysis is centered around Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Halvings and their important to the market due to the supply shock they fundamentally deal and have done so historically and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY being the green trend-line). On this 1W time-frame, we've applied time and horizontal Fibonacci levels on each Halving Cycle, from start to end, to classify the different phases that BTC has traded and determine where we are at now (always based on the model). ** The Time Fibonacci levels ** As you see, the price tends to rally aggressively after each Halving (Fib 0.0) until Fib 0.236. We classify this as the Parabolic Phase. From Fib 0.236 to 0.382, BTC tends to make the final rally and forms its Cycle Top. We classify this as the Top formation. From Fib 0.382 to 0.5, BTC has officially entered Bear Market territory. We classify this as the Bear Phase. From Fib 0.5 to 0.618, BTC is in the final staged of the Bear Cycle, preparing for its last (and most aggressive) fall. We classify this as the Despair Phase. From Fib 0.618 to 0.786, BTC traditionally forms the Bottom of the Cycle, signaling the end of the Bear Market. We call this the Bottom formation phase. From Fib 0.786 to 1.0 (next Halving), BTC officially starts the new Bull Market. Categorization: Bull. ** The horizontal Fibonacci levels ** Those are measured from the bottom of the Halving candle to the top of each Cycle. Those are mostly useful in calculating a potential bottom level. The first Cycle bottomed after the 0.382 Fib broke. The second Cycle bottomed after the 0.5 Fib broke (a Fib level lower than the previous Cycle), while the current Cycle has already broken Fib 0.618 (a Fib level lower than the previous Cycle). Not surprisingly, this recent (FTX led) low is timed right within the 'Bottom formation' Phase (blue zone). In the 2018/19 Cycle, the price rebounded relatively early after the 'Bottom formation' Low, while in 2014/15 in did so towards its end. The phase's end is in May 2023. ** The Dollar's importance ** Among all the Fibs and classifications, the USD Index (DXY) plays its own highly important role during BTC's Cycles. Right now the DXY has been on a +1 month (aggressive) decline. Typically, as it is valued in USD, Bitcoin tends to rise when the DXY falls. The stop of USD's previous run was in March 2020, right on the COVID crash. What Bitcoin did then was bottom out and start the 2020/21 Parabolic rally. The previous USD top was on December 2016, when again Bitcoin was in its 'Parabolic Phase'. The USD's previous top was in March 2015, right at the start of the 2015 'Bottom formation' phase. From all the about, we could reach a (always with a certain degree of error/risk) conclusion that the combination of a new (fundamentally led/ FTX) Low within the "Bottom formation" phase of this Halving Cycle, while the DXY is dropping aggressively, could be Bitcoin's new bottom. Whether the price rebounds now as in 2019 or twards the end of the phase as in 2015, it remains to be seen, and certainly depends on a lot of variable factors, most of which fundamental. Stability in the stock market is definitely among the top ones. But what do you think? Has Bitcoin priced its new Cycle Bottom as this Halving model suggest, especially if the DXY is starting a new long-term decline? Or the global fundamentals are so strong that it will be invalidated? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BITCOIN Strongest sell signal since 2021! This time's different?Those who follow our channel for long, know that we like to look into Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on many different time-frames for a more all-around perspective. The 3D time-frame is one of the most accurate for long-term price projections and this time is no different as since last week its MACD formed a Bearish Cross. As you see, since March 2021 we've had this formation another four times, all of which delivered a new Low. The September 16 2021 Cross was limited to 'only' a -18% drop but the other three delivered enormous -50%, -52% and -57% drops. A 'standard' (according to this model) -50% drop from today's Bearish Cross' candle would push the price down to a little below the $10000 barrier, a huge psychological level undoubtedly. Add to the mix that BTC got rejected on its 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) same it did in late March/ early April 2022 before the last MACD Bearish Cross and the -57% drop. Now, what's different this time? The only parameter that differs is that in the past four events, the build-up to the Bearish Crosses was a Channel Up. This time it was a Channel Down. How important can that be and whether it can cause the opposite outcome (a rise), it remains to be seen. A good indication that this time it might be different would be if the price breaks above the Channel Down, thus the 3D MA50 (currently at 20386) as well. What do you think? Are we about to see Bitcoin at $10k in the next 2 months or does the Channel Down signal the end of this bearish model? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
16
BITCOIN Bollinger W rebounding, does it mean the bottom is near?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame is flashing some bottom signals we can't ignore. The core of this post is the Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) indicator which rebounded on a level (blue line) that has historically preceded major rallies and market bottoms (circles). The period that bears more resemblance with today is the BBW rebound that started on the week (1W candle) of November 12 2018. This was a strong red week, which was immediately followed by another, even stronger one. The bottom was made three weeks after on the Higher Lows trend-line (dashed) that was almost half the angle (16°) of the previous one (30°). If this is any pattern to follow, then the bottom of the current Cycle could be made on a 8° angle Higher Lows trend-line. All those lines start on the last major low before each Cycle Top. Keep in mind that depending on your screen's dimensions, the angles can change but they do so proportionally, so the analogy remains. In any case, on the current weekly candle, the Higher Lows trend-line has a downside limit (Support) around $14000. The more the price doesn't drop, the higher this level gets. Is the bottom close? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
15
BITCOIN Is the FTX crash similar to 2015 Bitfinex??This is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame, on the left displaying the 2021 - 2022 price action while on the right the 2014 - 2015. For the record we need to make clear that FTX crashed and filed for bankruptcy while Bitfinex on August 17 2015 experienced a flash crash. At the time, Bitfinex claimed to had the most liquid exchange but the flash crash was triggered when several leveraged positions were forcibly closed in close proximity to each other. When both are put next to each other within their respective Bear Cycle parameters (1W MA20 = red trend-line, 1W MA50 = blue trend-line, 1W MA100 = green trend-line), we can identify some similarities so far, especially in terms of RSI and LMACD. The Bitfinex flash crash took the market 8 weeks to recover from and break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The FTX crash last week, didn't recover its 1W candle as fast as Bitfinex, so there is already a divergence and 'bad sign' if we can call it for a new low. Nonetheless, the current week, is so far on the green. What do you think? Can the market recover the same way it did after the Bitfinex crash in August 2015? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
27
BITCOIN Inflation down -0.5% a 9-month low! Is it truly Bullish?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having an initial bullish reaction before the U.S. session opens following a more than expected -0.5% drop on the U.S. CPI to 7.7% from 8.2% in the previous month. This reading beat the forecast by 0.3%. Is a drop to inflation truly bullish for BTC? To answer this, we should look at the previous 3 times that the CPI had a monthly fall. Since August we basically have falling CPI each month: * On August 10 the CPI fell to 8.5% from 9.1% the previous month. * On September 13 the CPI fell to 8.3% from 8.5% the previous month. * On October 13 the CPI fell to 8.2% from 8.3% the previous month. * And today (on November 10 ) the CPI fell to 7.7% from 8.2% the previous month. As we see on the chart, the August 10 CPI fall instead of a rise caused a massive drop on Bitcoin. The September 13 CPI fall also caused a drop on BTC instead of a rise, though less aggressive. The October 13 CPI fall though did start a rally but not as aggressive as one would expect, but reasonable considering the drop was only 0.1%. That price action has kept Bitcoin within a Channel Down since the June 18 Low and yesterday the bottom was hit making a new Lower Low. This time though, the 1D RSI is rebounding after breaking yesterday below the 30.000 oversold level. The last two oversold 1D RSI readings caused short-term rallies (May and June-August) which are highlighted (black and yellow lines). Their projections are illustrated within the Channel Down, both showing a touch of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in 4-5 weeks. If it happens, that would be the first 1D MA200 contact since January 02! Do you think this huge monthly CPI drop will make Bitcoin fall and break below its Channel Down or rebound and test the 1D MA200? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
8