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BITCOIN bottomed and prepares the post summer rallyAn increasing number of long-term indicators have been showing lately that Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is past its bottom for this Bear Cycle. On this analysis I am shifting to an even longer-term time-frame, the 4W, using an overlooked but often very powerful indicator: the Williams Alligator. During the past two Cycles, the bottom was formed when the green trend-line (lips) crossed below the red trend-line (teeth). On both of then that took 15 bars from the Top of the previous Bull Cycle. Then the green trend-line Bearish Cross below the blue trend-line (jaws) ushered the Accumulation Phase and it wasn't until the red trend-line crossing below the blue that we had the final signal of the first strong rally of the new Bull Cycle. This time the Green/ Red Bearish Cross took place on the current candle, 17 bars this time from the top. The Green/ Blue Bearish Cross has been formed on the September 12 candle, while the Red/ Blue on November 07 2022. As result this prints a quite reliable roadmap on how BTC's price action might trade in the coming months. It basically suggests that by late October, Bitcoin could be ready for a strong end-of-the-year rally. At the same time, we shouldn't ignore the, always reliable on long-term projections, RSI indicator. This shows that it hit the Support, which has formed the bottoms of 2014 and 2018, two candle's ago and is now rebounding. Additional strong information is that when the RSI broke above its MA (yellow trend-line), the rally started. Do you agree with the Williams Alligator that the bottom is behind us and we've entered the Accumulation Phase of the new Bull Cycle as BTC prepares for a Q4 rally? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
16
BITCOIN A mind-blowing approach to Cyclical Theory based on DXY This is an alternative representation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and its Cyclical behavior based on the long-term price action of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). A simple yet eye-opening approach that links BTC to the USD more than any other asset. ** Traditional Cycle Theory vs BTC/DXY Divergence/ Convergence Theory ** Traditional theory suggests that Bitcoin's current Bear Cycle is the 4th one. The 1st was in June - November 2011, 2nd in December 2013 - January 2015, 3rd in December 2017 - December 2018 and 4th (current one) in April 2021 - now. However this BTC/DXY Divergence/ Convergence Theory shows that Bitcoin could only be trading on its 2nd ever Historic Cycle and in fact preparing for the final rally that will complete it (curved arrow). ** DXY hyper rally and BTC Bear Phase ** How's that so? Well by looking at the DXY (green trend-line on your chart), we see that the hyper rally it has been trading on since May 2021 is identical to that of March 2014 - March 2015. Both started a few weeks after Bitcoin peaked (4) and started a Channel Down correction (Bear Phase) that would find a bottom (5) and prepare for the final rally. When that happened in mid 2015, the DXY had peaked and turned sideways for an extended period of time (almost a year). Bitcoin's final rally peaked (6) when DXY bottomed. ** The Cycle's Bullish Megaphone pattern ** But what led to this Bear Phase (4-5) and rally (6)? Well it was a period of volatility on DXY which formed a Bullish Megaphone pattern on Bitcoin. The early phase of the pattern (1-2-3) was accumulation after BTC's rally peak (6) when DXY had recovered from its April 2011 bottom and traded on high volatility and as this sideways move progressed, BTC gained power. Notice the huge Divergence (Rectangle pattern) where Bitcoin peaked (6) and DXY bottomed that was what paved the way for Bitcoin's Megaphone. The Convergence happened on Phases 1-2-3. ** This is Bitcoin's only 2nd Cycle ** As you have noticed, this is the exact same pattern that Bitcoin and DXY haven been trading in since December 2018. The Divergence led to the Convergence of the two and creation of the new Megaphone (1-2-3), which based on the model is just its 2nd Cycle ever. DXY's hyper rally that started in May 2021 following the crash of March - December 2020 due to the COVID trillion rescue packages, which distorted DXY's true bottom, gave rise to the April 2021 - now Bear Phase (4-5). This is where we are today. With the DXY on a 1 year hyper rally, which has most likely reached its top as its identical March 2014 - March 2015 rally was completed in one year. If that's the case, then Bitcoin's Bear Phase has also bottomed and as discussed at the start of the analysis, it is entering the short accumulation phase that will initiate the final rally outside of the Bullish Megaphone, which validates being its only 2nd Historic Cycle. But what do you think? Do you agree with the BTC/DXY Divergence/ Convergence Model indicating that we are only on Bitcoin's second every Cycle? And if so are we about to see the DXY turning sideways and a mega rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. Because this chart has two assets together, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
23
BITCOIN The ultimate Bear pattern slowly breaking to the upsideThis is a very interesting pattern that perhaps was ignored but paints Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) whole picture during this Bear Cycle. ** Mini Channels within Main Channel Down ** As you see the dominant structure has been a Channel Down but with the use of the Fibonacci Channel levels we can see that it can be divided into two secondary (mini) ones that seem to have almost the same trading pattern (the first (A) within the 0.0 and 0.382 Fibs and the second (B) within the 0.618 and 1.0 Fibs). The RSI sequences tend to agree with that thesis and right now we are at the point after the mini Channel (A) broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which following a pull-back to the 0.786 Fib, rebounded to the -0.236 extension. That happened to be on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) at the time and causing a rejection, kick-started mini Channel (B). ** The Bearish and Bullish extremes ** We may be missing an important detail though. By breaking above the 1D MA50 last week, BTC broke above the main Channel Down of the Bear Cycle. However it did a proportional break to the downside of the Channel on December 04, which I call (Bearish Extreme) and that came close to the -0.236 Fib. Similarly this may be the Bullish Extreme to the 1.236 Fib symmetry. A break above it, invalidates the bearish bias and breaks the main Channel Down completely to the upside, opening the way for a new pattern for the first time since the November 11 2021 All Time High (ATH). As a result it would be ideal to break above the -0.236/1.236 Resistance cluster above as soon as possible to confirm the first pattern into the new Bull Cycle. Until then there seems to be heavy sell accumulation around 26k. Do you think this is the ultimate pattern we've been ignoring for so long and if yes do you expect a break above the 1.236 Fib extension to take us into the new Bull Cycle? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
7
BITCOIN Closing of the month reveals the start of the rallyThis is Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. I am using various indicators to plot the current position relative to past Cycles and the more you add, the closer it looks that the market has bottomed. ** The importance of the LMACD ** As we have 1 week before the end of July, the monthly candle closing can reveal a lot, particularly in terms of the LMACD indicator. As you see in the past two Cycles, then the 1M LMACD histogram turned from dark red into light red, BTC had already priced its Cycle bottom. At the moment, the LMACD is exactly at the point where the past two Cycles bottomed. So giving a light red histogram next Monday (August 01) will most likely confirm the start of this Cycle's Accumulation Phase. That Accumulation Phase, can be fast (2019) or slower (2015). It appears that closing above the 1W MA20 (blue trend-line) is the difference between having a faster or a slower phase into the new rally. ** The Gaussian Channel ** In any case, having held the 1W MA300 as Support as it did twice in 2019 and 2020, the price looks ready for accumulation. An indicator that I have never used on this time-frame, is the Gaussian Channel. However it provides excellent insight because, as you see on the chart, when the price (almost) touched its green trend-line on March 2020 and August 2015 (circles), a strong rally began. Right now this trend-line is closer than ever and if Bitcoin accumulates some more before breaking to the upside, it can hit it by November, if not sooner as it is aggressively rising. In my opinion all the above paint a very promising 2nd half to the year for BTC that can end with an aggressive rally. Do you also see the LMACD as being the key for starting the new phase? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
19
Bitcoin next 6monthsI think it's possible that for the rest of the year Bitcoin plays out something like this , will know how close we are to playing this out if my by mid August we top out somewhere between 27-30k , I don't think we hit the 30k , I think most likely we close the CME gap at 27400 before heading back down. This fakeout area is where everyone is going to be calling for that 12-15k Bitcoin and most likely the exact opposite will happen. momentum will start increasing. Just check out this recent discovery On average from capitulation cycle bottom it takes Bitcoin about 108days before things start picking up , so if the same does happen October 2022 is the month. Next we will have a 40-60day consolidation above or around 30k before we start the relief Rally going into the end of June 2022.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
9
BITCOIN 1st step into the Bull Cycle successful. One left to go.This week's big development for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been the break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 21. On this analysis I compare the patterns of the current Bear Cycle and the past two in an attempt to find if this break can be a structured move into a sustainable recovery. First of all, the time-frame on the candles is 1D (daily) but a lot of MA periods including the RSI and MACD indicators are displayed on the 1W because that prints a more complete picture. As you see the similarities of the current Bear Cycle with the past two are remarkable, despite it being an expanded flat correction as opposed to the other two which where sharp correction patterns. ** The Bear Cycle until now ** The RSI clearly shows that the top of the Cycle was in April 2021. That was followed by a sharp drop and rebound on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which is consistent with the past two Cycles. After the September - November 2021 pump that broke the sharp correction of the other two, the price quickly resumed the Bear Cycle model, was supported and rebounded near the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to the 1W MA20 (yellow trend-line) where it was rejected. That initiated the final sell-off sequence of the Cycle, where the capitulation was again (as with the past two Cycles) evident by the 1W MA200 crossing below the 1W MA100. The June 18 bottom has been formed just above the -0.618 Fibonacci extension (counting as 0 the Low of the 1W MA50 test) and that caused a rebound that broke this week above the 1D MA50. As you see on the chart, all this has so far been remarkably consistent with the past Bear Cycles. ** What's next? ** To answer this we naturally have to look at how the past two Cycles traded. Following the 1D MA50 break-out, neither Cycle was able to post a sustainable rally. Instead, it was only when the price broke above the 1W MA20 and (especially in the case of 2015) above the 1W MA50 too, that the market was able to rally into the Bull Cycle. So naturally what we would like to see next to largely confirm a Bull Cycle turnaround, is a break above the 1W MA20, which currently is considerably higher, trading at 32700, but declining rapidly. Until then, we continue to be in an Accumulation Phase. But what do you think about this comparison? Do you need to see a break above the 1W MA20 to confirm the recovery sentiment into a new Bull Cycle or feel that this week's break above the 1D MA50 is strong enough on its own? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
20
BITCOIN broke above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200! What's next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has now broken above both the 1D MA50 (green trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a critical benchmark as it last hit the 1D MA50 on April 21 (3 months ago exactly) and it has been trading below the 1W MA200 since the June 13 1W (weekly) candle (more than 1 month). As I've mentioned before numerous times, since the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) held as Support as it last did during the early March 2020 COVID collapse, a break above those trend-lines would be the first and perhaps most decisive signal that the Bear Cycle has bottomed. ** The TSI and MFI ** Notice how the True Strength Indicator (TSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI), two key indicators for Bitcoin, has printed the same sequences during both the March 2020 and December 2018 bottoms. The TSI now just needs to make a new Bullish Cross (first since August 2021) while the MFI a break above its Falling Wedge, in order to confirm a new rally similar to those of April 2020 - April 2021 (blue pattern) and February 2019 - June 2019 (green pattern). ** Two possible rallies ahead ** For comparison purposes I've plotted those two Rally Sequences on today's price action. Note that this is just an illustration in an attempt to project the trend's action if the same pattern is repeated. If this is indeed the bottom of the Bear Cycle and the beginning of a new Bull Cycle, then the price is more likely to post the less aggressive rally of early 2019 (which was still much stronger than the previous Bull Cycles) as Bitcoin tends to still accumulate after a market bottom and posts the aggressive rally of the Cycle after the Halving. It is worth noting though that both projections show that they will make contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) almost exactly at the level they did when they originally played out. This is remarkable and goes to show that there is indeed a degree of symmetry between phases. So do you think that the break-out above both the 1D MA50 and 1W MA200 has signalled the bottom of the Bear and start of a new Bull Cycle? If yes, what projection is more likely for you, the green to $80000 towards the end of the year or blue to $200000 by mid 2023? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
26
BITCOIN vs WTI Time to buy BTC and sell Oil. 4.5 year pattern!This chart represents the Bitcoin/WTI Oil ratio and reveals an interesting finding regarding where both markets could be headed. Since December 2017, the ratio has been trading within a Channel Up pattern. Following a 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross (blue trend-line crossing below the green trend-line respectively) in January 2019, the symbol bottomed and started rising, indicating that Bitcoin gained strength against WTI Oil. Today it appears we have a similar bottom behind us, as WTI Oil (black trend-line) has been dropping aggressively since late May, while BTC has been rising since June 18. Notably, that took place exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line of this 4.5 year old Channel Up. The 1W RSI is about to test the top of its Falling Wedge, just like in February 2019. A break above it, technically confirms the bottom bias and the sentiment for an upcoming rally on Bitcoin. Basically this tells long-term investors that hold both BTC and WTI contracts, to ease on Oil and start growing their BTC portfolio holdings instead. Attention though, as despite its correction since May, this doesn't mean that WTI Oil has to drop more necessarily. This chart shows that BTC is more likely to outperform Oil during that time. They can both rise together just like it happened from Jan to April 2019 or October 2020 to April 2021. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
6
Still in Bear Flag (Bitcoin)Bitcoin is still inside a bear flag once we break 23k and close above it this pattern would be invalided.A break of 23k would send Bitcoin straight to 27k to close the gap most likely before going into a long range accumulation for some months. I go over in my last TA why this bear flag had a much larger chance of invalidating because of the USDT dominance, take a look below. There is an interesting time Fib count I have been following with the last date being a really powerful pivot point. At this point there is a high probability that the bottom is in. I presented a lot of evidence in the TA below.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
2
BITCOIN hit the 1DMA50 for the 1st time in 3 months! Whats next?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since April 21. There are various patterns and trend-lines to consider at the moment, but mostly I want to bring forward the similarities with the November 2021 - March 2022 drop. ** Fractal comparison ** That sequence broke its 1D MA50 when first tested but pull-back back near its bottom shortly after. However it recovered equally quickly and tested both the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1D MA200 proved to be the ceiling of that potential recovery as the price got rejected exactly there, which happened to be just over the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. It is worth noting that both sequences made their bottoms around the same time from their tops (75 and 82 days respectively). Also note the similarities on the RSI structures. The 1D MA50 test coming after the RSI broke above its most recent Resistance. ** Level's to consider now ** The 1D MA50 test on today's sequence, comes at exactly the same level with the Lower Highs trend-line from the top. That could add extra rejection pressure. In addition, it is exactly on the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the small Channel Up pattern that has been formed since the June 18 bottom. As a result, that's technically a triple level Resistance. A break above the 1D MA50, naturally targets the 1D MA100 and similarly above that, targets the 1D MA200. If the Nov-March fractal tells us anything, its that the market shouldn't be expecting a long-term bullish reversal before closing above the 1D MA200, which has been containing the price action below it since December 31 2021, so practically for the whole year! Do you think its time to change that? Would a break above the 1D MA50 signal a bullish reversal, for the short-term at least? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
5
MATIC price analysisHey guys, MATIC has been outperforming every other alt coins in this relief rally, as bitcoin is trading in the fixed zone from past 28 days currently it's heading towards the resistance zone while majority of the coins are forming bullish breakout conditions, coming days are gonna very crucial for entire crypto market. Irrespective of our thoughts, we have to move along with the market. Moving to the MATIC chart, it's been in nice uptrend until it got struck in between the range $0.68 and $0.72, here what i am expecting, as it heading towards the local range support zone, we can observe that the sell pressure is decreasing, ofc anyone can say it by simply looking at the volume. Now what ? I'm looking for the long entry opportunity here in this local support zone, not that i'm rigid to this plan, execution completely depends on the market sentiment at the time of entry. End of the chart analysis, I'll post my trade setup on MATIC here soon. Stay Updated - everything provided here is not a financial advice.
MLong
by Livermore_Jr
BITCOIN and S&P500 Can they both find support on the 0.382 Fib?This is an interesting comparison of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the S&P500 (SPX) index. As you see during their last market corrections, they both found Support on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (December 2018) from the previous low, and formed bottoms (exception for S&P500 the COVID crash). Both have been trading below their 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the majority of the year, making this correction, a 6 month Bear Phase so far. At the moment, they are both again on their respective 0.382 Fib levels, counting from their Dec 2018 Lows. So far the level has been holding for 4 weeks straight. Do you think the 0.382 Fib will work its magic again and put an end to this correction? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
24
BITCOIN The bottom is in based on RSI-Sine Wave structureThis is a very unique approach on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) where I take into consideration the wave length of the RSI on the 1W time-frame in an attempt to identify potential correlations with Cyclical behavior. The result is striking and aligns almost perfectly with Cycle Bottoms. The first step is to turn to the 1W RSI and calculate the middle of the wave length that starts on one bottom and ends on the next. It is interesting to notice how the waves overlap as they contain all of the RSI action. This gives us the top of the wave which in candle terms it is far from the top of the Cycle. In fact it is at the start of the parabolic rise of the Bull Cycle. If we take the Sine Wave tool and draw the peak on those RSI peaks, we see that the bottom of the Sine Waves on each BTC Cycle is almost on the actual bottom. And for the current Cycle that was on last week's (1W) candle. With the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) supporting so far, all the price action needs to do in order to confirm that is break above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) below which we're trading for the past month. Do you think the bottom is in for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
16
The most important chart in cryptoUSDT dominance continues to be the most important chart in crypto to look at. Its is so good and calling tops and bottoms and general moves in the market. April 5th 2022 i posted this TA The most important triangle of the year! guess what date the USDT dominance started its parabolic move April 5th 2022! Bitcoin was 48k at the time, this is the most important chart to be looking at because it will call the exact time the relief rally will start or atleast a breakout into a higher range for Bitcoin maybe 22-30k range. As it stands USDT seems to be hitting a wall of resistance , since July it has failed to break this level time and time again which is a very good sign that we are in fact bottoming out. If USDT fails to break this resistance by 28th of July 2022 it will officially break the ascending channel which could trigger some sort of rally. It is important to note that this ascending channel is within a much larger marco channel that I cover on other TAs.
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DShort
by Sporia
5
BITCOIN Clash of theories and the possibility of 10K as bottomBitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 4th straight week of sideways trading following the mid June low. By doing so, it reached the bottom (Higher Lows) trend-line of a Channel Up pattern that fits perfectly BTC's price action since April 2013. With the LMACD hitting the Support trend-line of Feb 2015, all this looks like a Cycle bottom but let's examine this more carefully with the help of additional indicators. ** The Channel and its extremes ** As you see on this chart, the price action has broken above the Channel Up only twice these 9 years and that was during the formation of the November 2013 and December 2017 Cycle Tops. Those Bullish extremes took place exactly on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. There hasn't yet been a break below the bottom of the Channel but it is possible to do so if the price action fails to hold the Higher Lows trend-line in the coming weeks. ** The Bearish extreme argument to $10000 ** If it does fail, then we may very well see the first Bearish extreme and what better candidate for a bottom than the symmetrical Fibonacci level of -0.5. Bottoming there makes a perfect fit for an approximately -86% drop from the Cycle Top, which is a consistent correction percentage with all previous Bear Cycles. That would pull Bitcoin down to marginally below the 10k USD level. ** The LMACD ** As mentioned before the LMACD is on the Support level that marked both previous Cycle Bottoms. If this fails, it could be a first indication that we will be going for that first Bearish extreme of the Channel. On the bullish side though, if it holds, it validates this historic pattern which on the upside has two Lower Highs trend-lines that shape Cycle Tops. The oldest one that started in June 2011 has projected all Highs below the last two Cycle Tops. Since Dec 2017 it is the Diverging Lower Highs trend-line that marks the actual Cycle Tops. As a result, if the LMACD Support holds, keep an eye for a rather vast visit to the 2011 LH line for a first rally high similar to June 2019. But what do you think about that? Do you expect the Channel to hold or go for a -0.5 Fib Bearish extreme of around 10000 USD completing a -86% drop? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
30