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Bitcoinsignals

Plan for the next 350daysThis year might be boring for Bitcoin but come January 2023 we will start a massive relief rally going to next summer. This year it's time to buy as much as possible and stack then ride the wave up to the 0.618 to 48k , it's also the 8/1 Gann Fan. The Date you get when the 0.618 Fib and 8/1 Gann Fann cross is late June 2023 , I do also have a Fib date around that time as well to back this theory up. So now instead of spot buying I will be buying BTC x3 leveraged tokens on bybit and selling them once we hit 0.618 , far better than to keep a trade open and pay funding rate fees for months, it's simply not worth hassle especially if you were going to use x3 for your trade to begin with. In around 350days Bitcoin will be back at 48k and everyone will be bullish and call the start of the bull market and at that point we will nuke to create the classic cycle double bottom that's when you spot buy for long term position at the end of July 2024.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
BITCOIN Adam & Eve = a common bottom patternBitcoin (BTCUSD) failed to break above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) last week and the pull-back is testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) today. Despite the short-term weakness, we have the completion of an encouraging pattern, the Adam & Eve (A&E). I've displayed next to today's price action, three A&E patterns from recent history (Sep 2020, March 2020, Dec 2018), all of which formed bottoms on BTC. Notice the formation of a Golden Cross following the completion of all patterns. A new Golden Cross (when the MA50 crosses above the MA200) is close in today's sequence as well. In addition, the RSI sequences are also quite similar on all. Do you think a break above the 4H MA200 confirms this pattern and essentially the bottom? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
12
Bitcoin- Up after confirmation of supportLast week, Bitcoin has broken above the descending trend line resistance of the symmetrical triangle and reached a high of 22.5k. Now the main cryptocurrency is correcting this leg up and a new up move could follow. 20k zone is confluence support and in this zone, bulls can look for buying opportunities. However, keep in mind that the trend is grossly down, and a break and close under this important support could lead to further losses and most probably to a new low under 17.5k
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
10
BITCOIN Bear Market ending this summer. Charting the next Bull.This is an analysis of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame where its long-term (historic) Cycles are best viewed. This is a combination of some previous studies of mine with adding the element of Cycle Channels instead of the Parabolic Growth Curve. ** The LMACD ** As you see those also effectively depict the notion of decreasing volatility and diminishing returns over time, which is a natural consequence of increasing adoption. This is also illustrated by the LMACD indicator (bottom pane), which shows slowing volatility and right now has completed 10 months in the red. During the previous Cycles, it recorded 10 and 12 months during the 2018 and 2014 Bear Cycles respectively before BTC formed the bottom. This shows that the bottom is either already in or should be priced by September. ** The Halvings ** Another factor that completely matches that date is the pre Halving nature of Bitcoin that during the previous two events, bottomed 17 and 18 months respectively for Halving 2020 and 2016. The next Halving (no 4) is expected for March 2024 and 18 months before the event, place the bottom this September as well. ** The MA Fibonacci multiples ** The added element of the MA multiples on this chart, gives a fresh idea of the huge Support offered by the 1.62X multiple (green line). Each Cycle though has found Support a Fib level higher each time. M21 (red trend-line) and M13 (orange trend-line), are the candidate levels for the Top of the upcoming Bull Cycle. That is currently within 107k and 173k approximately. Do you also think the new Bull Cycle is closer than most expect? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
26
BITCOIN Gaussian Channel & RSI turning upwards. Bottom forming?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on the 5th straight week after the Gaussian Channel (GC) turned red on the 1W time-frame. In the past two Cycles, the market formed a bottom 6 weeks after the GC turned red on the December 10 2018 candle and 4 weeks on the January 12 2015 candle. Additionally, the 1W RSI has reversed upwards after last week's double bottom. Those formation are consistent with all prior Cycle Bottoms. The 1W MA300 (red trend-line) is at 16790 and, as I mentioned numerous times, is the trend-line that supported BTC on March 2020, Aug 2015 and Jan 2015. A case against the bottom can be made by the fact that the price is trading below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the 4th straight week. That has never happened before in BTC's history and is certainly a factor to worry about. In the event of a weekly (1W) candle close below the 1W MA300, the next trend-line that lastly supported a Bear Cycle was the 0.5 X multiple of the 1W MA300 on the October 17 and November 14 2011 Bottoms. Do you think the above is enough evidence of a bottom being formed right not on BTC or you're expecting a break much lower than the 1W MA300? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
25
BITCOIN Hyper-Cycle model shows we're where every cycle bottomedBitcoin (BTCUSD) has started the 3rd straight week of consolidation above the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) after nearly hitting the level on the weekly candle of June 13. I've made extensive publications on the importance of this level as a Support and this time I want to elaborate on the Hyper-Cycle Theory (HCT) that reveals a progression on the extension of each Cycle and projects where we are now relative to each Cycle and how far we might go. As you see each Cycle (Cycle 1 with the red, Cycle 2 with the green, Cycle 3 with the blue and Cycle 4 with the black trend-line) up to the April 2021 top is approximately 0.819 of the previous one. Based on that, Cycle 4 should be roughly extend for 148 weeks (1086 days) from the April High (181 weeks Cycle 3 / 221 weeks Cycle 2). That however puts the next Cycle Top exactly on the next Halving which is on March 2024. This comes in contrast to all prior Cycles that had their most aggressive Bull runs (parabolic rallies) right after the supply shock of each Halving. Of course if this theory of lower volatility for Bitcoin as adoption becomes greater in time, should at some point create fewer and fewer market extremes with smaller Cycles of Highs and Lows and break this Halving model. For projection reasons, I've plotted each of the past three Cycles starting at the April 2021 High. Surprisingly, each candle projection roughly fills the remainder of their respective Cycle. This may indicate that in a symmetric way on this Cycle, we are at the point where all prior Cycles formed their bottoms proportionately. If that's the case, then BTC is still before the middle of the Cycle, even if the 0.819 progression model stands, giving plenty of time for the next Bull Run, even if it peaks before the Halving. Proportionately though, a repeat of Cycle 3 or better yet Cycle 2 would appear to be more fitting to the Halving model. But lets stick to the HCT model for now. Obviously a repeat of Cycle 1, that high that quickly especially, would be too unrealistic in market cap terms. So which projection is more fitting according to you? Do you agree with the model predicting a Cycle Top before the next Halving? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! Important Note: Axis movements clearly distort the Cycles on the chart. If they get out of context on your monitor, try moving them to their original position based on the snapshot of the original snapshot of the chart: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
44
Update on Weekly SpringBoardBitcoin always creates bullish divergence on the weekly time frame before a macro shift in momentum , it can take years to build this springboard setup. If we take a look at the previous setups we can see that it's a very long process which requires a lot of patience from traders since it's normally a time where price will be most boring in the cycle, a lot of sideways consolidation movement followed by a barrage of negative news. It's the same every cycle during this period , "Bitcoin goes to 0" these articles start coming out like clockwork , the masses are not interested in Bitcoin right now and that's exactly how market sentiment should be for a cycle bottom. So Bitcoin is setting up like in 2018 , weekly springboard holding and LMACD same level it was in 2018 cycle bottom , it took 413 days to build this springboard , in the 2015 cycle it took 392 days . It is possible that we might not even get that big relief rally everyone is waiting for this year, higher chance we see this rally play out from December 2022 -June 2023.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
2
BITCOIN recorded the 3rd worst month ever! Bull or bear sign?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just recorded its third worst monthly closing in history amid high uncertainty not in just the crypto market but in the global economy as well, as the negative macro-economic outlook doesn't show signs of reversal yet. This chart is (naturally) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame and as you see, the June candle closed on a -37.32% loss, with only February 2014 (-38.87%) and August 2011 (-38.58%) having recorded worse monthly losses. That said, it tied September 2011 for the 3rd spot. With the exception of the first Cycle in 2011, which was the shortest one, such huge red monthly candles tend to form either at the very start of a Bear Cycle or exactly at the end of it where the bottom gets formed. For the current Bear Cycle (having that peculiar top in April 2021, slightly lower than November 2021), this is the second -30% candle. The first was the May 2021 (-35.38%) slightly after the Cycle Top. With the current candle coming a full year after that, it appears that the chances of that being near the bottom of the Bear Cycle and not the start are far greater. Especially considering the fact that the 1M RSI is trading exactly on the Lower Lows trend-line that has made three contacts prior to that. But what do you think? Do you feel this -37.32% monthly candle is starting a Cycle far worse than thought or it is close/ at the bottom of it? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
22
BITCOIN An overlooked pattern and a Bearish CrossBitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy volatility as ever since the June 18 Low, the price attempted a short-term rebound only to be rejected on the 4H MA100. An overlooked parallel lines pattern as well as a Bearish Cross may give as a clue to where we are compared to the bottom of the previous Cycle. ** The peculiar pattern ** First of all, see the parallel trend-lines on this 1D chart. Those are of Higher Lows and Higher Highs. In 2018/19, Bitcoin had 4 perfect touches on the Higher Highs on its way to the final flush sequence of the Bear Cycle. Then had two contacts on the Higher Lows trend-line. The same pattern had the exact same amount of contacts made (4) on the Higher Highs and so far 1 on the Higher Lows. ** The CCI and RSI bottom sequences ** On top of that, the 1D CCI (black line) and RSI (light blue line) have formed sequences similar to the December 2018 bottom. This was the first contact on the Higher Lows trend-line of our pattern. Can a second and final contact be in hand here? Very possible especially if the price gets rejected on the 1D MA50 (one fake-out) as in 2018/ early 2019. ** The Bearish Cross ** Last but not least, the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) broke today below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). Last time that happened was on December 30 2018, exactly after the first rebound on that Cycle's bottom. With all those indicators aligned perfectly to show that in comparison to 2018, BTC is currently past the Bottom, could it be the case that one last Higher Lows contact confirms this overlooked pattern? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
13
BITCOIN DOMINANCE giving us the right rally signalThis is an offer overlooked metric. The symbol BTC.D which represents the percentage of Market Cap BTC Dominance can be a reliable indicator for Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) long-term moves on a Cycle scale. As this chart on the 1D time-frame shows, during the previous Bitcoin Cycle (pane below displayed in orange), the rally coincided with the BTC.D breaking above its 1W MA100 (red trend-line). On June 12 BTC.D approached it but fell sharply again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), finding Support on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Right now the price is attempting another rebound, compared to late 2018 we can be anywhere within October - early December 2018, meaning that such volatility may be indicative of one last bottom before entering the new Bull Cycle. Regardless of that, crypto investors with patience in their mind can wait for the right opportunity to buy when the Bitcoin Dominance closes a week above the 1W MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by TradingShot
4
BITCOIN Scenarios for recovery based on previous Cycle bottomsFollowing the high interest that my most recent analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and its Cycles comparison attracted, I decided to make one in the same tone on possible rebound scenarios based on the previous Cycle bottoms. Before I begin, I want to make clear that this work is based on the assumption that the current bottom was priced two weeks ago or at least that it will be formed soon as long as the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) holds. This analysis is on the 1W (weekly) time-frame and I've divided it into four charts, each having a 'bars pattern' fractal of the first rally following a bottom, applied on the current price action. Apart from the obvious Cycle bottom fractals of Nov 14 2011 - Jan 02 2012 (black bars), Jan 12 2015 - Nov 02 2015 (red bars) and Dec 10 2018 - June 24 2019 (green bars), I've also included the recovery from the COVID crash of March 16 2020 - August 17 2020 (grey bars). Obviously the aggressive and highly volatile nature of the first BTC Cycle (black) projects a sharp recovery of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) by August, which under the current macro conditions seems unrealistic. Same goes for the March-Aug 2020 fractal (grey), which also has it by the end of August. The 2015 fractal (red) has this target hit by early April 2023 and is the most pessimistic of all, while the remaining Dec-June 2019 (green) offers a more moderate projection by expecting a 1W MA50 contact by November 2022. It is interesting to mention though that March-Aug 2020 is the only one that shows rejection and consolidation under the 1W MA50 for 2.5 months before a break higher a scenario that would be realistic too as the 1W MA50 is the initial Resistance of Cycles as they transition from Bear to Bull markets. Below is an illustration of all fractals on top of each other: As mentioned above, all these are mere projections based on past data. What matters most now is seeing the 1W MA300 hold and make all weekly candles that follow, close above it in order to maintain buying accumulation. Failure to do so, can make the price test the 13000 level as illustrated on a previous Fibonacci analysis. So based on the original bottom assumption, which fractal do you feel offers the most realistic projection of a recovery? Or you think the bottom is way past the 1W MA300? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
23
BITCOIN Consistent to previous Cycles. The ultimate comparisonThis is a complete mapping of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles from their previous top to the next one (with the exception of the first) all displayed on top of another: Cycle 1 (green trend-line), Cycle 2 (red), Cycle 3 (blue), Cycle 4 (black) and the current one Cycle 5 (orange). ** Diminishing Returns ** As you see, first of all, this showcases the Theory of Diminishing Returns, which suggests that as the market grows and higher adoption is achieved, BTC will show less and less returns in each Cycle. Every Cycle Top has been lower from the previous one. ** Cycle Convergence - Divergence ** Secondly, all Cycles particularly during their Bear Phase and for a short time after, tend to follow a common path. The illustration on this analysis is very clear as it starts with each Cycle's Bear Phase and you can see that when they diverge, they converge again quickly. The current Bear Phase is the longest in history, as so far it is 4 weeks longer (time-frame is on the 1W) than Cycle 4. ** Halvings ** It is well known that the Halvings are the catalysts in each Cycle that start its most aggressive part, the Parabolic Rally. The next one is projected for March 2024. This could mean that we may have almost 2 years of limited action and volatility (in Bitcoin terms) until the real rally begins. Of course this doesn't mean that the All Time High won't break until then, most likely it will and most likely a strong mini-rally may follow after its bottom is achieved. ** What's next for the current Cycle? ** If we compare the current Cycle (5) with Cycle 3 we can see that the Convergence - Divergence Model is holding. So far when Cycle 5 converged, it immediately diverged. Right now it is converging to Cycle 4 and if it is modelled after Cycle 3, the price will most likely turn sideways for the next two months in an attempt to converge and make contact with Cycle 4. This delay is because, as I've first mentioned in the crypto space, the current Bear Market is the 'smoothest' in history. In conclusion, Bitcoin tends to follow the steps of the previous Cycles. A bottom here is very likely, as is a smooth sideways transition to September and Q3. Depending on the global macro-economic conditions in the markets, we should re-evaluate at the time, as a favorable environment may give a rally similar to February - June 2019, while a negative environment (depression) may break the model downwards. So what do you think? Does this Cycle regression model offer any useful conclusion as to where Bitcoin might bottom and trend in the future? Is Cycle 3 the greatest fit for the current one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
58
BITCOIN The Resistance that every Cycle broke to start the rallyFollowing the 'back to basics' analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the reminder that the Parabolic Growth Channel is still dictating its long-term cyclical trend, I thought it would be useful to extend it a bit with new parameters. ** The Parabolic Rally and Bear Cycle Resistance elements ** As you see, I've incorporated new measurements on Each Cycle, namely the Parabolic Rally (green) measuring the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle and the Bear Cycle Resistance (red), which is the Lower Highs trend-line that keeps all price action (practically the whole Bear Cycle) below it until it breaks and the Bull phase starts. ** Angles' symmetry ** What those factors show is that each move holds a certain symmetry. Every Parabolic Rally has so far been roughly on a 60° angle (or at least this is on my chart adjustments, if yours are different it will change but again the angle will change proportionally on all trend-lines). Similarly, the Bear Cycle Resistance has been approximately on a 25° angle. We can see that this analogy held perfectly for the previous Parabolic Rally (October 2020 - April 2021) therefore enabling us to assume that the pattern could continue for the Bear Cycle Resistance. I have applied that Resistance and this gives us a slight idea of when to take a confirmed Buy position once it breaks after the bottom is priced and the trend starts moving upwards again. As you see, the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level from Cycle Top to previous Cycle Bottom, has always been a good estimation as to where the new Cycle may price its Low and right now we are trading exactly around it. ** Cycles comparison ** Also, for better illustration purposes and a cleaner comparison, I've put all prior Bear Cycles (including the current one) on top of each other, drawing the same Bear Cycle Resistance. You can see with this analogy just how proportionate each phase is and how close the bottom might be. So do you find this approach useful? Based on that are you willing to buy now or after the Resistance breaks? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
44
BITCOIN On Max Fear territory. Time to buy?This feels like a 'back to basics' chart for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) as I'm displaying the classic Parabolic Growth Channel but given the amount of negativity in the market, it might be the perfect time to look back into it. First we all know that the 1W MA200 broke last week and the ultimate MA that supports the Parabola is the 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which is now around 16650. This analysis is on the 1M time-frame though with the 1M MA50 being displayed as the blue trend-line. ** The Parabolic Channel ** As far as the Parabolic Channel is concerned, we can see that since last week the price entered its Growth Zone. That is the territory within the bottom and the dotted line that acted as a Resistance during the Accumulation Phases of 2012, mid 2015 - 2016 and early 2019. As you see on the chart when a monthly (1M) candle enters this Zone, the action has always been a Buy historically. ** The LMACD and RSI ** Perhaps the most interesting aspect on the monthly chart is the LMACD that is about to touch the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Triangle it has been trading in since the beginning. That is the Triangle that I've coined years ago as the pattern leading to Diminishing Returns and lower volatility. On this month it appears that the LMACD has entered into its 2-month Max Fear territory, which is always before it reverses. Also the 1M RSI indicator just hit the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Channel Down it has been trading in since the start. Both previous Lower Lows have coincided with BTC's Cycle Bottoms. To conclude this, the current monthly candle (June) looks like the capitulation candles of January 2015 and November 2018 that shaped the bottoms of the previous two Bear Cycles. Whether there is some more room left to drop to the 1W MA300 or the June 2019 High (to make contact with the bottom of the Parabolic Channel), by all historic indicators this looks like a favorable Risk/ Reward level to buy for long-term investors. But what do you think? Do you treat this Max Fear time in the market as a Buy opportunity? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
Pinpointing the Cycle BottomPinpointing the cycle bottom is pretty much impossible but we will give it a go anyways. This Gann Fan you see on the chart has had amazing reactions in the past : 1. Covid crash bottom hit 8/1 Gann perfectly 2. Covid weekly candles closing on 3/1 Gann 3. Price hovering over 2/1 Gann before starting the bullrun. Amazing reactions last couple of years so hopefully we can still use it as a template for things to come. So I have narrowed down a possible timeframe and price where Bitcoin could bottom , somewhere inside this red circle price could find a cycle bottom, between 14k -16.5k. Could we wick lower than the 3/1 Gann yes but to close under it I highly doubt it. Also there is a Fib Date coming up week of 18th July 2022 , last two times we had moves to the upside infact the last one was amazing and pinpointing that massive pivot up last july.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
GOLD/BTC ratio Time to sell Gold and buy Bitcoin again?This is one of the most accurate ratios in the book for the the two assets. Practically last time we updated this on October 30 2020, it helped us catch the exact time that Bitcoin started its parabolic rise (when it was close to testing the 2017 ATH) and began to outperform Gold heavily once again: Right now the price of GOLD-to-BTC ratio is yet again very close to its Lower Highs trend-line that started on the January 2015 High. At the same time the 1W RSI of the ratio is being rejected near its own Higher Highs trend-line that started on that date as well. What's very interesting is when we add the DXY (green trend-line) to the mix. You can clearly see that the ratio's big sell-offs took place when the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) topped and started to fall sharply as well. It is obvious that a cheaper USD favors the riskier nature of Bitcoin against Gold. What do you think is going to happen next? Is this an early signal that we should start converting Gold to Bitcoin again? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by TradingShot
5
BITCOIN Ultimate Buy Signal just flashed on 2WAs analyzed on our previous post, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost hit the 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which is the line that formed the bottom during the March 2020 COVID flash crash as well as August 2015. This time the strongest Buy Signal flashes one time-frame higher, where on the 2W chart the RSI reached the Lower Lows trend-line of the Channel Down it has been trading in since it first started trading. This trend-line formed the bottoms on all three previous BTC Cycles. A confirmed buy would be when the RSI breaks above its MA (yellow line), which just so happens to match the 1D MA100 (blue trend-line) break-outs on prior Cycles. That is the earliest buy signal the market gives before it starts a rally and the new Bull Cycle. Also watch that the price is approaching the 1.75 Fibonacci extension from the High of the first BTC Cycle (June 2011). While the 2nd Cycle marginally broke below the 1.25 Fib extension before making its Bottom, the 3rd Cycle didn't hit its +0.25 ext i.e. 1.5 Fib. This is consistent with the Theory of lower volatility over time during each Epoch as the price stability is achieved through maturity and higher adoption. Is this signal enough to make you buy on the current levels? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
15