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BITCOIN Getting closer to the 1W MA300. Short-term perspective.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) made a historic first in Cyclical terms as it broke yesterday the Top of the previous Cycle (Dec 2017). It did so within a Channel Down pattern on the short-term 4H time-frame. So what's next for the immediate price action? Well as long as the Channel Down is intact, BTC should trade lower within it. As I mentioned on my previous analysis, the level to look for once the 1W MA200 broke was the 1W MA300 (red trend-line on the current analysis). If broken, we can technically experience another massive sell-off to the -1.0 Fibonacci extension, which is around 12250. There are however high chances, at least from a 4H perspective, that the Channel breaks upwards as there is a bullish divergence on the RSI being on Higher Lows as opposed to the candle action being on Lower Lows. Technically, if the price closes above the Channel Down, we can expect a quick test of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and if broken, then in turn a 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) test, which at the moment is just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension that happens to be on the last 4H Resistance (28300) before the June 12 sell-off started. Again we have to state that this is a short-term technical outlook on the price action. Right now there are fundamentals on the bigger time-frames that tend to overshadow short-term patterns. Attention and careful risk management is needed. What do you think BTC will do next? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
Bottom startingThis is the full EW analysis since 2021. Classic Zig Zag correction with over extended B wave or some may classify this as expanded flat neglecting one wave in wave A back in May 2021. We have completed the 5 waves down of wave C. Personality of the wave was confirmed with volume expansion and fear in the street. The last lower timeframe wave 5 was extended which gave a target of 16800 which is yet to come...in any case crumbles do not matters. Now we are about to flirt with the bottom of the 10 years trend. if we violate this, dark times are ahead, meaning something fundamental has changed in the space. Nevertheless, these are my expectation for the near future. The two levels to e reclaimed are the 22k and 32 k, both with clear 5 waves move. These will give the trigger signal a new cycle has started. The best entry would be on the retracement after the 5 waves move up to 22k. Now any entry is at maximum RR but it could lead to capital erosion due to SL hitting multiple times. Just play safe and wait for a clear trend reversal as these are risky times. FOLLOW ME, SHARE, LIKE AND COMMENT
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by CFcryptoTA
1
BITCOIN The Ultimate Support Band. 1W MA300 coming into play?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the March 2020 COVID crash. As I've mentioned numerous times, that has been the trend-line that marked the bottoms on both previous BTC Bear Cycles (all candles closed above). On this analysis, I am extending my previous publications on this Support by adding a variety of elements: 1) The 1W MA300 (red trend-line), which was the level that got hit, supported the price and initiated the rally on the March 2020 COVID crash. 2) The Mayer MA , which fits perfectly on this Support Zone charting I want to make clear with the MA200 and MA300. 3) Mapping of all previous Cycles 4) The Halvings ** The 1W MA300 ** First, it is critical to acknowledge where the 1W MA300 is. On this INDEX BTC chart, it sits around 16590. That is way below the Top of the previous Bear Cycle (19800), which if broken it will be the first time in history. If the current 1W candle closes considerably below the 1W MA200, a trader should acknowledge that as a possibility. Notice however that this is the top of the Mayer MA Support Band (green zone), which was last hit on the August 17 2015 candle. ** The Halvings can time the Bottoms ** The good news come when we incorporate the Halvings on the chart. As you see, the previous Bear Cycle bottoms have been 882 and 791 days after the previous Halving for the December 2018 and the January 2015 bottoms respectively. Or alternatively 518 and 539 days before the next Halving. Right now that creates a potential Bottom Phase within the July 04 and October 03 2022 1W candles. ** The 1W MA50/MA100 Cross ** On top of that, there is a pattern that when formed, it basically confirms that the Cycle's Bottom has been priced. That is the 1W MA50/MA100 Cross (when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line)). I've analyzed that before but it fits very well on the current idea. If the MA50 and MA100 don't diverge from their current course, the Cross is projected to take place within the Bottom Phase as illustrated by the Halvings. ** Cycle mapping ** Even though the current Cycle has been an odd one, especially when thinking about its top, which not only it didn't make a blow-off top above the upper Mayer MA Zone (red zone) but also made a slightly higher top in November, it hasn't diverged much from the previous ones. As you see if we divide the Bear Cycles into phases, they all tend to follow the same pattern: a) Blue Triangle = Blow-off phase but with price still supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). b) Green Rectangle = Price consolidating, below the 1W MA50 but supported by the 1W MA100. c) Orange Channel Down = Final sell-off/ price collapsing below the 1W MA100 but finds support and contained above the 1W MA200. We are currently on Phase C. Whether or not BTC hits the 1W MA300 now or in a later stage of the new Bull Cycle, as it did on both previous Cycles (see red circles), that remains to be seen. Until then, what's your view on this complete Cycle mapping? Do you agree that we are in Phase C and if so, do you expect the 1W MA200 to support and close this week above it or make a sharp fall to the 1W MA200 if it fails? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
70
BITCOIN The MACD showing its a scalper's paradiseA lot of talk is being made lately on whether or not Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has made a bottom. Until the market shows a clear sign for that, the MACD indicator on the 4H time-frame is flashing a very reliable scalping signal. As you see, every time since late February that the 4H MACD hit or marginally went below the distant Support Zone and made a Bullish Cross, BTC turned sideways into consolidation within the 4H Bollinger Bands. So what the market is telling traders is that until BTC bottoms, good scalping opportunities exist on the short-term for those who can apply sensible risk management. Take advantage of this MACD signal. Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
Mayer Multiple Extremely Rare signal!The Mayer Multiple has officially turned black! Let's go over how rare this signal truly is! October 2011 / 85days - Price 2.13 Dollars January 2015 / 9days - Price 178 Dollars December 2018 / 11days - Price 3300 Dollars Average of 35days with 2011 included without 2011 we talking about 10days average , this is by far the rarest Bitcoin oversold signal you're going to get. Now the lowest Mayer Multiple Band is 18.2k which is in line with the last CME GAP! Last time we hit the lowest band was March 2020 covid crash which tapped it perfectly! This could be the key at pinpointing the bottom. The question is when , well it could very well happen this week since bitcoin has never closed under a 200 weekly moving average. If Bitcoin did hit 18.4k close to the CME GAP then close the week above 22.3k which would be the 200 weekly. something like this playing out CME TA - Mayer TA- Mayer's ratio is at 0.55 ,very interesting times!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Sporia
1
BITCOIN hit the lowest 1W RSI ever! All eyes on the 1W closing!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) finally hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which as I outlined on numerous analyses previously, has been the Support and bottom formation on every Bear Cycle, hence the ultimate buy level. What's also very interesting this week though, is that the 1W RSI hit the 27.40 mark, which is the lowest ever recorded level! On the bright side, the 1W LMACD continues to form a sequence that is similar to all past Bear Cycle bottom formations. What we should be focusing now is how the current 1W (weekly) candle will close. As you see, all prior 1W MA200 tests that broke below (even marginally), they managed to recover within the same 1W candle and close the week back on the MA200. Even the March 09 2020 (COVID crash) candle that extended 1600 USD (from $5500 to $3900) below the 1W MA200, managed to close the week on it. The next few days are crucial, as the Bitcoin market is naturally affected by the disappointing performance on the stock markets that are even calling for a recession, especially if the Fed raises the interest rate more than expected. As a result, BTC investors that are looking for confirmation before buying, may do so when the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). In prior Cycles that has happened in the middle of the bottom/ accumulation phase, so the lower that happens the cheaper price investors can get. So what do you think? Do you deem the current 1W candle close as important as I described? Where do you expect the candle to close, below or on the 1W MA200? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
51
BITCOIN getting closer and closer to the 1W MA200Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is seeing a very disappointing start to this week's (1W) candle. This development however is making the price getting closer and closer to fulfil the strongest technical condition of Cyclical behavior: the bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). That level is now around 22290 but perhaps an even more interesting technical feat is that the current Cycle is approaching the end of the 67 week count, which is how long the previous two measured from their High to the moment the Parabolic Rally started. As you see on the chart, the Cycle that started on the December 11 2017 1W candle, ended 67 weeks after on March 25 2019, when a 13 week Rally started. The rather Phase not Cycle that started after the June 24 2019 High, also ended 67 weeks later on October 05 2020, when a 27 week (almost 2 times the previous) Rally started. The current Cycle started on the April 12 2021 High (though not the absolute High) and if it is proportionate to the previous, the 67 weeks count ends on July 25 2022. By that time, the price 'should' have made contact with the 1W MA200. The question is will the Parabolic Rally that will follow measure 13, 27 or 54 weeks (assuming that each Rally is twice as long as the previous)? Well all three projections are illustrated on the chart. Note that these are not projecting the price (i.e. how high) but rather the duration (how long). Also assuming that the new Rally will be basically only the start of a new hyper Bull Cycle, we can very well see the whole projection with the green double curve pattern. Note that historically, Cycles post their strongest Rallies after each Halving. See the true extent of the Rally after the May 2020 Halving (3). The next Halving (4) is projected to be around March 2024. Finally, an interesting piece of information is the Bullish Cross that the 1W STOCH RSI has posted. When those are made near the oversold 0 level towards the end of the 67 week Phase, they tend to be market bottoms. So what do you think? Does BTC have really only a month or so before a new Parabolic Rally? Or "this time is different"? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
19
BITCOIN The amazing symmetry of Cycles shows Bull end of year !!This is a Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis on the wider 1W time-frame that compares the symmetry of each of its past Cycles. Even though there are certain variables involved, I will keep the post short as the chart is pretty self-explanatory. The idea is to measure each Cycle on a start to end basis that is primarily defined by the moment a Higher Lows trend-line starts that connect the Higher Lows before the Cycles Peak (All Time High at the time) and those that later form the bottom of the Bear Phase. Then for better illustration purposes, a Circle is drawn around the trend-line. The diameter of the Circle is 134 candles, i.e. weeks which is translated to 469 days + 469 days (938 days in total) for each half. The first half represents the mania phase of the final parabolic rally of the Bull Phase and ends after the first correction where investors can still get out with manageable losses and the second half represents the core Bear Phase. The end of the Bear Phase is marked when the price breaks above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again. Then a period of roughly 50 weeks (350 days) starts until it touches the diameter of the next Cycle. The symmetry between all those Cycles is remarkable indeed. Notice how consistent the Higher Lows, within this 134 weeks long in diameter Cycles, are. Also they maintain a roughly 65°-70° angle in the first half below the Higher Lows and a roughly 110°-115° angle in the second. At the same time the Lower Highs trend-line that led to the Cycle Bottom is roughly on a -30° angle. With this model applied on the current Cycle, we see that a break above the 1W MA50 shouldn't happen before the end of November 2022. Of course we always have to consider the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is touched on Bear Phase bottoms. Do you think this amazing symmetry will fulfil the pattern yet again and consolidate until November? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
16
BITCOIN Ascending Triangle on a 4H Golden CrossThis is a rather short-term Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis on the 4H time-frame. There are three major developments: 1. The formation of an Ascending Triangle pattern similar with the one of February - March. 2. The break above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since April 10. 3. The formation of a 4H Golden Cross, which is when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4H MA200. As you see, despite the break above the 4H MA200, the price still got rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line that started the correction after the March 28 High. That means that for now, the longer-term pattern of this bearish trend-line, overpowers the shorter term pattern of the Ascending Triangle. If the price breaks above the Lower Highs trend-line, it should capitalize on the Golden Cross and most likely break above the Triangle itself. On the Feb - March Triangle, the break-out was limited to below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. That is currently a little over 34000. Notice that the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) is slightly below the 1.236 Fib ext, so that is a major Resistance cluster right there. A 1D candle close above those can in my opinion complete the full bullish sequence to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (39300 roughly). On the other hand a break below the Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line of the Ascending Triangle, should finally test the much anticipated 1W MA200 (green trend-line), which during the previous BTC Cycles, was the ultimate bottom formation. Keep an eye on the 4H RSI as well, the Lower Highs suggest that a pull-back to 27500 is technically plausible before the break-out is decided. What is more likely to happen for you first? Break of the Ascending Triangle upwards to 39300 or downwards to the 1W MA200? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
14
Bitcoin Price Update 2022 Week 23BTC bounces from 0.618 Fibonacci level and continues consolidating between the 0.5 and 0.618 levels for the last 5 weeks. Following my prediction 2 weeks ago that Bitcoin has potentially reached its bottom we are seeing the second green weekly candle in 11 weeks after BTC made history with its 9 week decline since 21 March 2022. Bitcoins global technical analysis outlook continues to provide signals the bottom is in with consolidation and upside from here on. Should Bitcoins weekly candle close below the 0.618 Fibonacci we could see more downside till around $17500. 1. Horizonal trading volumes continue to rise from my last idea linked below and is on its way to become the second most traded price range which would signal this as a massive value area for buyers. 2. Trading volumes over the last 2 months remain at high levels showing good price conviction and demand. 3. Stochastic RSI trigger line has crossed over and is moving upward from the oversold zone showing upward momentum strength. 4. The two box areas which provided strong support previously in January 2021 and June 2021 continues to provide strong support in the third box area which going by previous durations would potentially last until end of June 2022 before we start to see a gradual increase in upward momentum into July 2022 and beyond. Legendary Investment Trader, Cryptocurrency & Web3 Master Boundless Lord
by boundless_lord
BITCOIN 1W Bearish Cross with Gaussian turning red.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just made a Bearish Cross between the MA20 (red trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line) on the 1W time-frame for the first time since the previous Bear Cycle. In fact that is a technical feat only seen during Bear Cycles and most notably around the bottom. More specifically, in the 2018 Bear Cycle, this Bearish Cross took place 1 week after the market bottom, while in the 2014 Bear Cycle it took place 1 week before it. In addition to that Cross, another important historical indicator that is typically seen near bottoms, flashed a signal. The Gaussian Channel just turned red for the first time since July 2019. However, in both previous Cycles, when this indicator turned red, the price dropped around another -50% before making the market Bottom. We have to keep an eye on that, even though a symmetrical drop would pull the price as low as 16000, which isn't only below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) but also (considerably) below the Top of the previous Cycle (19800), which has never happened before historically (price in the new Cycle never re-tests the Top of the previous Cycle). With the 1W RSI rebounding on a Lower Lows patterns similar to the January 2015 bottom formation, it seems more likely for Bitcoin to consolidate there for a few weeks as part of an accumulation phase that will form the bottom and give way to a gradual price recovery by the end of the summer. So what do you think? Will the current 1W MA20/100 Bearish Cross form the bottom around the current levels or another -50% drop will take place as suggested by the Gaussian Channel? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
34
BITCOIN The implications of this week's 4H MA200 rejection.Perhaps the biggest development this week for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been the clear rejection exactly on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Typically when that takes place during an uptrend, it favors more the dominant (bearish) trend than prepares a switch to a bullish reversal. But let's see how similar patterns have developed price actions in recent cases going as far back as the 2018 Bear Cycle bottom. First I need to make clear that the RSI indicator on the panes below the chart is on the 1D time-frame and not the 4H. First case is the December 2021 pattern, which as you see had also a clear 4H MA200 rejection, then a marginal break above but that wasn't enough with the price extending the bearish trend all the way to 33000 before stabilizing. In June 2021 the price broke almost 2k above the 4H MA200 before being rejected to make a marginally Lower Low than the one that led to the 4H MA200 and then stabilize and gradually prepare a strong Bull run to a new All Time High. Now going back to the December 2018 Bear Cycle Bottom, the 4H MA200 test came just 5 days later with the price clearly breaking above the 4H MA200 but as with the previous cases, dropping back below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This time however it didn't make a Lower Low, holding the December bottom which gradually gave way to the accumulation that paved the way for the May - June rally. Notice how on all cases, the 1D RSI printed the same pattern. And practically it was only when BTC broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) that a recovery was established (though in the case of 2021 didn't last for long, even though it made Higher Highs). The 1D MA50 is currently at 34390. What do you think? Do you expect Bitcoin to make one last push lower based on this model? Or reverse to a bullish trend if the 1D MA50 breaks first? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
BTC Analysis - Keep An Eye On The Ascending Trend LineHello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. Tonights post is going to be short again, there really haven't been any new major developments so my technical analysis from my prior posts are still applicable. The only change from yesterdays analysis is that BTC is now trading on an ascending trend line. As you can see price has bounced from the trend line 3 times which is a good indicator that traders are playing this trend line. - As long as BTC bounces from this trend line the trend is intact. - If price drops below the trend line then the trend is no longer valid and we will need to re-asses for the next trend. - If price did drop below, this trend line could potentially act as resistance later on so keep that in mind. That's it for tonight's analysis, thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by natef1
BTC Analysis - Understanding Price Action Within ZonesHello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD. I'm sure a lot of you are concerned after the large drop in price BTC faced today. At the moment there is nothing to worry about... - As traders we let the chart guide us - The key support levels are still intact and have not broken. Until that happens BTC is still in a position to make the next move up. Use the chart as a guide to help you understand any future price movement and what it could potentially mean. - As long as BTC holds the Support Level around $28.5, there is nothing to fear. That would just be more "Consolidation". - If BTC breaks below $28.5K then be slightly more cautious however BTC could still retest the low around $25K and create a double bottom before getting a bounce and making a move back up. **The "line in the sand" is if BTC breaks the $25.2K support level. This is where I would become far more Bearish and would expect BTC to dump. That's it for today's BTC post. Remember, the market is designed to push people to the brink of fear and anxiety to extract as much capitol as smart money can from the pockets of inexperienced traders. Read the charts and don't let the FUD affect you. Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by natef1
2
BITCOIN The Channel that is dominating the trend since 2019Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is now on the third week (1W candle) after the May 09 weekly low and the first week (so far at least) that is green after a historic streak of 9 red weeks. For this analysis I am using the 1W time-frame as it better displays what I want to show you today and that is a Fibonacci Channel on the log scale that started after the June 24 2019 1W High. This Channel has so far four perfect touches, the June 24 2019 (Higher High) 1W candle, the March 09 2020 (Higher Low) that was the COVID crash, the March 08 2021 (near Higher High) and the recent May 09 2022 1W candle as the new Higher Low. Or at least if it holds it will be classified as a Higher Low because as the longer term Cyclical models show, Bitcoin tends to price a Bear Cycle bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is now at 22190. The similarities both in price and RSI terms between the two sequences within the Channel are remarkable. The 2019/ early 2020 pattern started rising within a Channel Up after an aggressive correction. Then as the price turned bearish and broke below the the 1D MA100 (red trend-line), the new correction started with the 1D MA100 rejecting, which only broke once in both cases. That was the last break (where also the 1W RSI broke above its (yellow) MA line) before the final capitulation. In March 2020 that was the COVID crash, in 2022 it remains to be seen if the May 09 1W candle is the equivalent. There is a Resistance formed be the last break above the 1D MA100 in both cases. In 2020 when the price broke above it, the new Bull Run started. We can also claim that it was when the 1W RSI broke above its MA trend-line that the trend entered into long-term bullish territory again. Do you think this Channel will hold and continue to dictate the price action? Or Bitcoin will eventually hit the 1W MA200 as prior Cycles did? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
29
BITCOIN Summer 2021 Déjà vu?Just a quick Sunday fractal analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD). Since the late March 2022 High, the price has dropped to a little more than -47%, trading below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for more than 1.5 month. The sequence I compare this to is the drop from the May 10 2021 High, which initially bottomed at a little more than -49% then made a Lower Low shake out on June 22 2021 and after trading sideways, the consolidation/ accumulation ended on July 25 2021 when the price broke above the 1D MA50 again. A similar 62 day consolidation puts a potential end to a sideways trend on July 13 2022. The LMACD being already on a Bullish Cross and the RSI rising after breaking below the 30.00 oversold barrier, are identical between now and 2021. DO you think as this model suggests, that a break above the 1D MA50 will kick-start a new uptrend and if so can this be achieved in a deja vu manner by the end of July again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
28
BITCOIN The huge significance of the Cyclical Pivot Trend-lineSince my recent analysis on the 'Buy Zone since April 2013' attracted so much interest and reactions by the community, I've decided to extend it. On the current idea, you see Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 2D time-frame with the Buy Zone and 1W MA200 (red trend-line present). This time, I've designated the current and past two Cycles with a Pivot line that I'm calling 'The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line'. ** The Cyclical Pivot Trend-line ** This trend-line starts as a Resistance on each Bear Cycle. Then after the 1st Half of the Cycle is completed (red Triangle), the price breaks above the pivot and trades within a pattern that resembles a Channel Up (blue shape), but always above the trend-line, until the bottom is made. ** The 2D RSI ** In the past two Cycles, this bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200, which is currently around 22000 and rising. With the 2D RSI having reached below the 30.000 oversold level and rebounded, that bottom is certainly close. If the RSI breaks above its own Lower Highs trend-line, more particularly the (3) leg before the 1W MA200 is hit, then that would mean that the Bear Cycle's Bottom is already priced. This could mean trading sideways within the blue Channel Down as Bitcoin did in late January - early February 2015 and late December 2018 - January 2019. So how important do you think this Cyclical Pivot Trend-line is at the moment? Do you think the bottom will be priced on the 1W MA200 or will the RSI break upwards meaning it's already priced in? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
39
BITCOIN The Golden combo Bottom rule. Are we that close?This isn't the first time I use the time Fibonacci levels along with the horizontal retracement levels when comparing past Cycles on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), but it may be more relevant than ever to refresh your memory as we are getting close to the desired buy levels on the long-term. This chart is on the 1W time-frame and first and foremost is dictated by the Halving events, where I've also included the next one (Halving 4 in March 2024). The time Fibs start from one Halving event and end on the next one. The horizontal Fib retracement levels measure from the bottom of the Bear Cycle to the top of the next Bull Cycle. As you see, the bottom on each of the past two Cycles has never been priced below the 0.382 horizontal Fib or after the 0.618 time Fib. At the same time, a confirmed buy on a cyclical basis, was always when the 1W RSI hit the 30.00 oversold level and the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) crossed below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) to form a Bearish Cross. Right now, the 0.382 Fib is roughly around 21300, just below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), while the 0.618 time Fib is on September 19 2022. That means that based on this model, it is very unlikely to see a price bottom below 21300 or after the coming September. Is the price already good for you to make a long-term buy or will you wait for the 1D MA200/ 1W MA100 Bearish Cross and the 1W RSI 30.00 reading? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
45