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Which support zone does BTC have to reach on to recover up?On 5th of may bitcoin was trading at $39600.Decreasing from that point,it had fallen to the lowest of $25600 on 12th of may.this all happend between just 7 days.then,bitcoin surged a bit next day and since then bitcoin is trading between $29000 and $31000 till now.it has been seven days so far. I am not a professional trader,but according to my perspective,if bitcoin breakes the resistence of $31000 it can go back to the price of $40000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by aashumaan
1
BTC Update - Next Target @ $25,000The 4 Hour chart is over bought. Momentum is dying and it looks like BTC will be on its way down soon. Opening longs here might not be the best idea while inside this bear flag / pennant however you want to look at it. Small bounce expected once it hits #5. Entry Between: $30,791.00 - $29,414.00 Take Profit: TP 1 - $26,736.10 TP 2 - $25124.80 Stop Loss: $31,262.00 If you'd like me to analyse any other crypto send me a message or leave a comment 👍🏽 Happy trading! Not Financial Advise. Do Your Own Research.
Short
by priitzzy
1
BITCOIN entered a Buy Zone holding since April 2013.On today's Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis, I am bringing to you a fresh long-term perspective on the 1W time-frame using the Fibonacci Channel and its retracement/ extension levels. It is a Channel Up as you see and its start is on the Low of the April 08 2013 1W candle. ** Creating a 9 year Buy Zone ** The Top of the Channel is on the November 25 2013 peak of that Cycle. As you see, all the Cycles and price action that followed since then has seen the Zone within Fib 0.0 and Fib 0.236 as the ultimate Buy Zone being valid for 9 years running. In fact during the previous Bear Cycle (2018) the price dipped only marginally below the 0.236 Fib as its was the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that provided the necessary Support and formed the bottom. It was only during the Black Swan event of the March 2020 COVID global meltdown that the price pierced through but still rebounded just above the Fib 0.0 (bottom of the Fibonacci Channel Up) and the 1W candles closed only marginally below the 1W MA200. That was the case also with the Jan 12 2015 and August 24 2015 Lows, they broke but closed on or above the 1W MA200, showcasing why it is the ultimate buy spot within this 9 year Buy Zone. Notice that, excluding the COVID crash of March 2020, the 0.236 Fib has made perfect hit and hold actions as Support 5 times since December 2018. ** The Zone of Frustration ** Since the January 03 2022 1W candle, Bitcoin has been trading (closing) entirely below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). I have labelled the periods of price action within the 1W MA50 and 1W MA200 as the 'Zone of Frustration' where traders start to get confused at best or lose complete faith in the market. Right now it seems that we are approaching the end of this period. Notice how this is normally marked by a strong rejection on the 1W MA50 (March 28 2022 and July 30 2018 1W candles. In 2014, it was a near rejection on the November 10 2014 candle). ** The Rally Zone ** The 0.236 Fib is also key on another aspect of this Channel. In 4 times during these 9 years, it has marked all major rally phases. Basically it is at least the 0.236 - 0.618 Fib Zone that is dominating most parts of those rallies. Naturally that means that, if it holds, it can give a new rally in the coming months towards the 0.618 Fib. ** Conclusion ** This model shows that 1W candle closings above the 0.236 Fib of the Channel most likely indicate that this will be the new Support. Last week's bounce above it, adds more weight to this argument. Regardless of that, Bitcoin successfully entered this Buy Zone since 2013, so based on the above parameters, it is already a strong long-term buy with the only condition left to fulfil is hitting the 1W MA200. Do you think this is bound to happen in the next few weeks? Are you waiting until then or do you consider the break into this 9 year zone as a good enough buy opportunity for you on the long-term? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
36
BITCOIN Comparing 2 year corrections. Conditions for a bottom.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has seemingly recovered from the correction of the first 2 weeks of May and is trading +20% higher from the May 12 Low. However the question remains, can this recovery be sustained or the bottom isn't yet in? A comparison with the corrections of 2020 and 2018 can help us draw meaningful conclusions. Let's see the similarities and differences between the 2020 and 2018 corrections. ** 2020 vs 2018 ** Similarities: Both confirmed their recovery and started a new uptrend when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line form the last Top. That roughly matched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Differences: While the 1D RSI broke well below the 30.000 oversold level in both cases, in 2020 it achieved a price bottom for BTC, while in 2018, a price Lower Low was made for the bottom despite the fact that the RSI was rising. That bottom was made exactly on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), while in 2020 the price dropped considerably below the 1W MA200. ** Today ** The correction since late March resembles so far that of 2018 in terms of the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and in terms of the total drop percentage as so far it has completed a -47%, not far off the 2018 -52%. A -52% would be approximately around $23150, just over the 1W MA200, which in 2018 formed the bottom. However it terms of RSI, it resembles more the 2020 correction, as the RSI is rising along with the price. So where does this leave us in terms of speculation? The common parameter in those past corrections, is that the market confirmed a sustainable rise when the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line, which is also roughly where the 1D MA50 was. Right now the 1D MA50 is at $38623 but dropping fast due to May's aggressive correction. Long-term traders and investors have much better chances buying once BTC breaks above this trend-line. Our thesis is that, we will most likely see sideways price action before the Lower Highs/ 1D MA50 break, meaning that we may see a 2 month consolidation. Can this be this Bear Cycle's Accumulation Phase? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
40
Bitcoin good setup for uptrendIn the hourly timeframe, the Bitcoin is showing correction signs for at least the next 12 hours: 1) Bullish Divergence 2) Bullish Inverted H&S 3) Strong Support at 29200 4) Many engulfing green candles starting from the support line 5) Buyers coming in and pushing the price up despite the big red candle at the left MA Cross (green dotted hairline, A big movement in this area) 6) Trendline counts as another support 7) The hourly 9ma crossing above the 21ma is even better. A continuation of the last uptrend is highly likely. We will retest the 31000 line and if we break through it, we may see the 32199 which is a bit hard to go through. In case we pass the 31000 resistance and get rejected at the 32000 one, we may go sideways for a long while. This is not financial advice. Please do your own homework.
Long
by Casablanca05
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple 0.67!A reminder to everyone that Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is at 0.67! that is a very rare buying opportunity. www.buybitcoinworldwide.com Now is the time to load up on Bitcoin as of May 8th 2022 we turned purple a period in Bitcoins cycle that has only happened 5 or 6 times in all of its history , indicating that we are extremely under valued. There is even extreme cases where you can see a dash of black in the middle of some purple periods showing actual bottom of cycles.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Sporia
3
BITCOIN Closed 7 straight red weeks for the 1st time in history!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed this weekend its 7th straight red weekly (1W) candle, which is a feat seen for the first time in history. More specifically, the last time we had 6 straight losing weeks on Bitstamp was from August to September 2014: ** Healthy stock market needed ** Needless to say, this development is very negative for BTC, especially from a psychological standpoint as the market being full of weak hands and late buyers during corrections, it tends to be dominated by fear, uncertainty and doubt. That accelerates more selling until the market stabilizes and high capital investors (whales, big institutions etc), enter the market again methodically. Much will of course depend on the outlook of the stock market. Once the correction that began at the start of this year ends and the disappointing macro-economic environment stabilizes, institutional investors can again enter the riskier crypto-market. Until then we can expect more of that volatility at best. ** First week below 31600 since Dec 2020 ** However there is a certain basis we can work on and a few patterns to relate to. First, last 1W candle wasn't just the 7th straight red but was also the first weekly closing below 31600 since the December 21 2020 1W candle, thus reaching levels of almost 1.5 year back. The 1W MA200 is now at 21960 and as I've mentioned in previous posts, it is the weekly Support of the typical Bear Cycle. ** The importance of the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the 1W MA200** Also last week's candle, left a big wick below as it rebounded strongly from roughly 25400. Such candles were last seen on November 29 2021 and May 17 2021. Both of those started a consolidation of at least 1 month. The difference was that the November one failed to break its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, thus kickstarting further decline, while the May one eventually broke above the 0.5 Fib, shifting the trend to bullish. The 0.5 Fib is currently a little over 35000. A weekly close above it, could be enough to restore the long-term bullish bias, even though technically there is still the massive Resistance of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to consider which rejected last time the uptrend (March 2022). A weekly closing below last week's low, should deliver the, much anticipated by the majority of market participants, capitulation blow on (and even slightly below) the 1W MA200, where Bear Cycles bottom out and typically consolidate for 4-6 months before initiating the new Bull Cycle. So what do you think will be the case this time? Will the market deliver the 1W MA200 to us? Or if the 0.5 Fib breaks, a new Bull Phase will start regardless? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! P.S. The last time the 1W RSI has been that low was on the March 09 2020 1W candle, which was the bottom of the COVID crash. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
18
BITCOIN The MFI and 2W MA100 Golden Bottom IndicatorsMy latest Cycle analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is again geared towards estimating the bottom of the current (smoothest of all time as I've called) Bear Cycle that we are in. This time I am shifting to the 2W time-frame as a unique indicator combo is displayed. ** The 2W MA50 and MA100 ** The red area indicates the time from the start of the Bear Cycle to when a 2W candle closes below the 2W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time. As the chart shows, this has so far been fairly consistent throughout the Bear Cycles as in 2014 that lasted 378 days (27 2W candles), in 2018 it lasted 336 days (24 2W candles), while on the current Bear Cycle it took again 378 days (27 2w candles) as in 2014. Then I measure the time it took from the 2W MA50 closing to the time the price hit the 2W MA100 (green trend-line). In 2014 that was 28 days (2 2W candles), while in 2018 it was 77 days (6 2W candles). That sums the time from the start of the Bear Cycle to the 2W MA100 touch at 406 days and 413 days respectively. ** The MFI indicator ** Perhaps the most important addition to the mix is the Money Flow Indicator (MFI), which gives a buy signal when it hits the 25.50 level. It has done so on the January 05 2015 and the January 21 2019 candles. Both of those hits, marked a Bear Cycle bottom as the price was at the same time on the 2W MA100. The June 18 2018 MFI 25.50 approach doesn't fall into that category as, not only the indicator wasn't on the 25.50 level but the price hasn't closed below the 2W MA50. ** Conclusion ** This simple analysis shows that the market bottoms when the 2W MFI hits the 25.50 level while the price trades on the 2W MA100. The MFI is currently around 33.40, while the 2W MA100 at 21825. Note that the only time Bitcoin closed below the 2W MA100 was in March 2020 during the COVID global crash and still that was just marginally. As far as timing is concerned, if the current Bear Cycle follows the pattern of 2014, then it should bottom by the May 23 2022 2W candle and if it follows the pattern of 2018 it should bottom by the June 20 2022 2W candle. But what do you think? Do you estimate that a bottom is not far away and if so, will it be on the 2W MA100 or lower? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
17
BITCOIN Comparing Capitulation phases among Bear Cycles.As the current 1W candle on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is rising, leaving a big wick below, prompting to capitulation events, it is a good idea to compare the current 2021/22 Bear Cycle to the past ones (2018 and 2014) in an attempt to determine how low the price can go and where a bottom may be formed. ** The importance of the 1W MA200 ** As seen on the charts on the left, every Bear Cycle hit the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) as it formed its bottom. It is important to mention that it is the closing of the 1W candle that matters are in both cases, but more so during the 2014 Bear Cycle, the 1W candle broke below the 1W MA200 but managed to close back above it, leaving a big wick behind it, much like this week's candle. The 1W MA200 is currently at $21850 and rising rapidly with each week. ** The Accumulation phase Fibonacci extension bottom ** Both of the Cycles mentioned above, entered a 4 - 7 month sideways phase following the hit on the 1W MA200. This was in my estimate the Accumulation Phase that helped the market in transitioning from the Bear to the new Bull Cycle. Once the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) broke, Bitcoin confirmed the new Bull Cycle. ** The 1W MA50 ** Speaking of the 1W MA50, its role is also key throughout the Bear Cycles. As shown all all charts, when the Bear Cycle starts, the initial drop always makes a direct hit on the 1W MA50 and then the price rebounds for some months. The exception is of course the current Cycle which made a Higher High in November 2021 but still we have to consider this a technical anomaly and take April 2021 as the Cycle's Top. Remember that I always treated the current Bear Cycle as a special case, calling it the 'smoothest of all time'. As the Bear Cycle progresses, the 1W MA50 turns into a Resistance for the latter part of the Cycle, in fact in 2018 and 2022 it provided strong rejections. ** The Fibonacci extension bottom ** Circling back to the initial drop to the 1W MA50, if we measure the Fibonacci extensions on the past Cycles from that point to the Top, we derive very useful conclusions. For the 2014 Bear Cycle, the Bottom was made on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (all 1W candles closed above it), even though as mentioned at the start of the analysis, the 1W candle made a capitulation candle with a wick that reached as low as the 1.786 Fib extension. The 2018 Cycle made a Bottom on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If this is a progression, then each bottom is made one Fibonacci level before. This means that the current Cycle may bottom out on the 1.382 Fib ext, which being roughly at $21950, is around the current level of the 1W MA200. This not only matches perfectly the 1W MA200 criteria that we discussed before, but also is in line with the diminishing returns/ lower volatility theory which suggests that as massive adoption takes place and institutional capital is invested, each Bitcoin Cycle will be less volatile, offering diminishing returns, but at the same time not the brutal corrections of the past. As you see the past two Cycles made a roughly -85% correction. If the current one bottoms on the 1.382 Fib, then it would be a -66% correction. Still big but considerably less than the Bear Cycles of 2018 and 2014. Also notice how the current 1W candle almost reached the 1.236 Fibonacci, always a strong Support during asset corrections. ** The 1W RSI break signal of 30.000 ** Last but not least, keep an eye on the 1W RSI. The 2018 and 2014 Cycles, made a bottom when the 1W RSI broke below the 30.000 barrier, turning oversold. That took place exactly on the market bottom and then the Accumulation Channel started. Right now the 1W RSI is a little below 35.000. Even a flat multi-month consolidation can be enough to get it marginally below 30.000, not to mention another brutal 1W candle to the 1W MA200. In any case, even if the 1W MA200 doesn't get hit this time, keep an eye on the RSI 30.000 barrier as an additional market bottom indicator. Also notice how the 1W RSI is descending in each Cycle, and even in the case of the current one (2021/22), it didn't make a Higher High despite the fact that the market did in November 2021. The Bear Cycle RSI pattern remained intact. ** Conclusion ** So what do we learn from the above? Well the current 1W candle may very well be a capitulation candle similar to that of November 19 2018, which pushed the price to the 1W MA200 three weeks later. A hit on the 1W MA200 (and candle close above) and the 1.382 Fib would be a strong indication of a market bottom but the 1W RSI breaking below 30.000, might be an even more powerful. In any case, as the current 1W candle almost hit the 1.236 Fib and the 1W MA200 is rising rapidly, the 24600 - 21850 is a massive candidate for the Bottom of this Bear Cycle. If the stock market stabilizes soon, we should start witnessing buying from long-term investors and institutions within a month's time. But what do you think? Where do you expect this Cycle to make a bottom? Is the 1W MA200 a could projection or look more for the 1W RSI breaking 30.000? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! BONUS The sharp 2011 Cycle and how it corrected for reference reasons: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
44
BTC: Temporary correction?!Bitcoin Intraday - We look to Buy at 26200 (stop at 24328) With signals for sentiment at oversold extremes, the dip could not be extended. We look to buy dips. 4 50week EMA is at 26000. Bespoke support is located at 26000. Trades within a broadening formation. Our profit targets will be 31250 and 32000 Resistance: 29000 / 30000 / 31000 Support: 28000 / 27000 / 26000 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:BTCUSDLong
by VantageMarkets
BTC Daily Chart Prediction & Target AreasBTC Bitcoin has now fallen below the yellow support trend line and is testing the previous lows from mid 2021. I'm expecting a bounce in this area, potentially back up to the red zone around $35,000 which would be an excellent opportunity for shorts, especially if it meets the VWMA 100 on the daily chart in that zone. I think it's likely it falls after touching the red zone, VWMA 100 or blue downtrend line. My guess is that it chops around in the triangle area for a while and tries to get supportive on the yellow lines. That area lines up well with the previous top of $20,000 and also the bottom of what I call the bounce zone which is the purple cloud shown on the chart. That bounce zone is made up of the EMA 1000 and EMA 2000 and the EMA 2000 was the absolute bottom for Bitcoin after the 20k to 3.5k drop in 2018/2019. I'll be looking for wicks down below the yellow lines and for price to stay supportive in that area and make higher lows once it gets there. It will definitely meet resistance at the blue line when it gets there, but once we clear that blue line it should start to slowly move upwards again. Watch out for low volume pops while we are in this lower triangle as those will likely be bull traps. I'm a big fan of using the VWMA 100 and 500 for trend detection so I'll be looking for the VWMA 100 to be above the VWMA 500 as well as price staying supportive above both VWMAs before being bullish again. It is also very likely that price comes back down and retests the VWMA 500 after we break the downtrend. If it does happen, price will need to stay supportive on the VWMA 500 and then reclaim the VWMA 100 before really starting the beginning of the next bull run. It is important to note that regaining enough momentum to start another bull run takes time and price will likely consolidate for an extended period of time, so keep that in mind when entering margin longs as margin fees will eat away at your profits while you wait. Wait for major volume to come in to avoid these situations. If we go into a major recession, then I don't think the 20k level will hold. But if we only experience a mild recession and most markets start to recover semi-quickly, I think it is very possible that the scenario outlined above will happen(or very close to it).
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by FriendOfTheTrend
17
BITCOIN The Cycles Halving Model times the bottom this SeptemberThis analysis is an update to a model that I've been working on for years and as it shows great accuracy at timing tops and bottoms, I frequently update here on TradingView (something I started on reddit though). Last time I published an analysis on this model was almost 1 year ago (June 11 2021): As you see, Cycle 3 (orange trend-line) did diverge again from Cycle 2 (green trend-line) and priced its top considerably lower, which is in line with the Theory of Diminishing returns. However an update had to be made on this in order to more accurately display and project the (future) tops. Notice that this is a Halving centered approach. Every Cycle is measured before and after its respective Halving. E.g. Cycle 1 (blue trend-line) starts from the start of the data set and ends on Halving 2, i.e. displaying the price action centered around Halving 1. for comparison purposes, I've centered all on Halving 3 (the most recent one). You can find a more detailed explanation on the methodology on the previous issue of this model (chart above). ** Projecting Cycle Tops and Bottoms ** As you see a more accurate estimate of Cycle Tops is measuring the Fibonacci time extensions progressively starting from the January 2009 Genesis Block (0.0 Fib) and Halving 1 (1.0 Fib). The first one is the 1.3 Fib ext, which is around the Top of Cycle 1. Then Cycle 2 peaked around the 2.3 Fib ext and remarkably, Cycle 3 (the current one), made a top around the 3.3 Fib time ext. Similarly, on this update I have added bottom projections to the mix. They follow a similar progression from the Genesis Block and Halving 1. The Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 1.6 Fib ext after Halving 1 and the Bottom of Cycle 1 was around the 2.6 Fib ext after Halving 1. Technically, if the bottom Fib projections work as well as the top ones, the Bottom of Cycle 3 should be around the 3.6 Fib ext, which is around the end of September 2022. ** Portraying the Bear Cycles and Rally Phases ** A combination of the above, portrays a rough estimate of how the current Bear Cycle will unfold and that is from the 3.3 Fib to the 3.6 Fib (red area). This is respective to all previous Bear Cycles as well. As for the Rally Phases (green area), those start after each Halving and end on the +.3 Fib extension. The Rally Phase of Cycle 3 for example started on Halving 3. The next Halving is on March 2024, so there is still plenty of time before this aggressive, parabolic part of the Bull Cycle starts. On the other hand, buying at the bottom (as mentioned the next one is projected according to this model to be around September 2022), always gives the lowest risk and highest return. Based on this model there isn't but another 4 months left for this opportunity, but as this Cycle turned out to be the smoothest in history (as I've mentioned in numerous analyses already), it is possible to see something of a sideways price action for the remainder of the Bear Cycle instead of a 'traditional' capitulation candle. ** Conclusion ** One thing is for sure with this model, that the current Cycle as it diverged a year ago from the previous one, it will converge again after the Bear phase ends. This will still be diminishing returns compared to the previous ones, but will translate to a new All Time High. Do you agree with this model and the projections made? Do you have your own estimate for the Cycle bottom? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! BONUS MATERIAL Two examples of previous applications of the Halving centered approach and the Convergence - Divergence modelling: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
18
BTC New Entries + Exits (Best Reverse Strat Ever)The 1on1 video is currently out, if you would like it in order to understand how to play my analysis FULLY, please let me know privately. All likes/comments and feedback are very much appreciated! How to play my chart: Buy at support, sell at resistance. When you open this chart you'll see a green entry and a red entry. When the candlestick hits the green entry, you place a buy. If however that support buy doesn't go into profit and goes negative -35 or -60 pips (depending if it was a fast break/or if the break landed on a minute 15 zone), if it breaks you would then exit your buy and immediately enter the sell. You would then ride that sell down to green TP1, or you could then repeat and play the buy/break there. The same exact thing goes for resistance sell/break plays!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ExclusivelyFX
3
💥Bitcoin 2022 Roadmap to $19k & $16k#Bitcoin Update🔥 Technically, we are repeating the same movement as in 2017. Bitcoin dropped by -84% from all time high from $19,799 to $3,159. As displayed on the chart, the major zone that served as a strong support was violated and Bitcoin dropped by -47% from $6,000 support to $3,159 in 2017. This same setup is repeating itself. The current bear cycle started in November 2021 . So far, Bitcoin has dropped by -58% from all time high from $68,996 to $29,000. Price has been respecting the major support within $29,000 & $30,000 so far. Just as 2017, support got violated at the tail end, therefore I expect a similar reaction and a drop by -47% or less from major support at $29,000 to $16,000 or $19,000. Not a financial advice🙅🏼‍♂️ Share your opinion in the comment section✍️ Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 if you find it useful🥳 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
Long
by PetrockFxTrading
5
MKRUSD The striking similarities with Bitcoin's 2018 Cycle.This is a remarkable resemblance between Maker's (MKRUSD) price action since the May 2021 High with Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Bear Cycle of 2018. I've mentioned numerous times that the crypto market's price action in the past +12 months can be viewed as a smooth (for crypto standards) Bear Cycle as a whole. As for Maker's 2021/22 price action we see that it shares striking characteristics with Bitcoin's 2018 Cycle: * The rebound after the initial crash that followed the Market Top, reached as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. * After that, both Cycles started a gradual decline under a Lower Highs trend-line. * That eventually led to a capitulation sell-off , where Maker is at today and where Bitcoin formed its December 2018 bottom and then started to slowly recover into the new Bull Cycle. * That capitulation sell-off is similar in both cases (-58% for Maker and -52% for Bitcoin). * Bitcoin made the Cycle bottom on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension (measured from the initial crash's low). Maker's -0.5 Fib ext is around 935.00, not far from today's 1030 low. * Bitcoin's 2018 Bear Cycle from top to bottom lasted for exactly 1 year. Maker completes 372 days today from its May 2021 High. What do you make of all those striking similarities? Has Maker bottomed or is it about to and gradually start a new Bull Cycle? Why do you think it has copied so closely Bitcoin's 2018 Cycle after all? Let me know in the comments section below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BINANCE:MKRUSD
by TradingShot
4
Will Bitcoin Get to $1 Million?Highlights There is a -0.70 Pearson Correlation Coefficient between the supply of bitcoin and its price. This negative correlation is more logarithmic than linear. As the supply gets closer to zero the price will rise quicker in raw numbers. This logarithmic relationship extended forwards in time to zero supply gives a Bitcoin price of around $460,000 There is a 0.85 Pearson Correlation Coefficient between the transaction volume of Bitcoin in USD and its price. Showing a strong positive relationship Transaction Volume in Bitcoin in USD has been largely rising with the price, but the number of transactions has been relatively low in comparison, staying between a range of 200k and 400k in the last 5 years. Suggesting that big players are transacting in larger numbers but the quantity of transactions isn’t rising to the same degree. Most Americans have heard of Bitcoin, so how much more awareness is there left to drive up demand? A study found that the main determinant for cryptocurrency prices is the relative cost of production. If the mining cost for Bitcoin rises too high then the upper price estimations will become limited There is a fundamental problem with the argument that Bitcoin will reach $1 million. Introduction There have been many investors, large and small, who have claimed that Bitcoin could hit $1 million per bitcoin Jones, C. (2021). The timelines vary. Some don’t have one and others say in the next couple of years (Cuthbertson, 2022), Kharpal, A. (2021).  In this report, I will be discussing their claims and any merit they may hold. I will attempt to dispute these claims from a fundamental point of view. Just to point out before I begin, I accidentally deleted all the data that I used for the calculations after I had done the analysis. If you want the analysis and the data - just reply to this post. Background The reason some estimate Bitcoin reaching such a high price is the supply is limited. The problem with this argument is, that the supply of everything is limited. Yes, even the US Dollar. The magic money machine is limited. So, for this argument to work the limitations of the supply have to be meaningful. Supply and demand go hand in hand. But I would say, in my opinion, demand is more important than supply. If I create a painting, I then duplicate the painting into ten copies. The supply is ten. But to be frank, who would want to buy a painting that I have drawn? Nobody. So even though the supply is limited the demand is non-existent, so it doesn’t matter. The price of those painting would be determined by the market price. That is the last sold price on the free market. But I haven’t sold any since the demand is zero, so the price is also zero. Let’s look at it the other way round. If I don’t create any painting, but the demand for my paintings is extremely high, then the moment I create any painting the price will be very high as well. As I increase the supply, the price should eventually go down. The market's interest is first, in my opinion, that drives prices, second is the supply. Of course, to have a healthy market you need both to be sufficient. Supply on its own means nothing. It just means something exists nothing else. Demand on its means there is interest. So, the potential is there. The moment supply matches the demand that interest turns into something and that something is valuable. So, the problem I have with this argument is, that the supply of Bitcoin on its own means nothing. Only when combined with demand does the argument have any potential merit. Assuming ceteris paribus, the only three ways the price of Bitcoin could go any higher is if the demand increases with the supply remaining constant. Or the supply falls with the demand remaining constant. Or the demand increases with the supply falling. The supply of Bitcoins is falling right now, it has since the beginning. So, the next thing to establish in this logic is, is the demand increasing, stagnating, or falling? This answer will tell us if the price carries on going up, Ceteris paribus and if that price will reach $1 million. Before I get to that, just out of interest I thought. Is there a correlation between the supply of Bitcoin and its price? Assuming demand remains stable, let's see if the supply will change the price. Supply Analysis I got the monthly close data for the Bitcoin price and the number of Bitcoins in circulation. The first assumption I had was the total supply of Bitcoin taken away from the total number of bitcoins in circulation is the left-over supply. That is a big assumption, since some long-term investors may not have their Bitcoins in circulation. Also, another problem is that quite a few Bitcoins in circulation may not even be accessible and may have been lost. So, the real leftover supply of Bitcoins would probably be lower than what I had calculated. Regardless this is just a simple analysis to find a correlation so these assumptions in my opinion are not that important. I doubt I would from, let’s say, a strong correlation to a weak one once the assumptions are violated. The data set was from 2014 to 2022 (finance.yahoo.com. (n.d.). There were in total 91 data values. During a Pearson Correlation, the value was -0.70. This suggests there is somewhat of a strong negative correlation between the leftover supply of Bitcoins and the price. However, there are a few problems. The first and most obvious one is, that this method of analysis assumes there are no other variables involved that, in this case, affect the price. Another problem is correlation doesn’t mean causation. So even though there may be a correlation between the supply and price that doesn’t mean one is affecting the other. This is more pronounced once you realise that the 2017 large price increase in Bitcoin may have been done by market manipulation (Rooney, 2018). The same may be said of the 2021 increase. If these price increases are due to market manipulation or even just a demand increase rather than the supply affecting the price, then the relationship between supply and price maybe even less pronounced than the data suggests. However, the main problem is that even though the correlation coefficient is -0.7. Once you look at both graphs plotted against their time. It doesn’t seem to be a correlation. The supply of bitcoins decreased from a high of 7.6 million in 2014 to a low of 1.97 million in 2022. That’s a -74% decrease. While the Price increased by over 10711% during that time. If we flip the supply data, we see a mere 289% increase. Once we do a scatter plot of the supply vs price, we see that the decrease in supply against price is not very linear. The supply decreases from 7.7 million to 4.8 million and in that time the price rose from $338 to $1071. But after the price rose above $10,000 in 2017 and then went on to $60,000 in 2021. The supply didn’t decrease as much. This decrease seems more logarithmic than linear. The R^2 value was 0.89. If I get the logarithmic line and extend it near zero. So, the supply of Bitcoins left is almost gone. The price of one bitcoin is only around $460,000. So, analysing the relationship between the supply of bitcoins and their price gives us an estimated maximum value of one bitcoin at around $460,000. Not $1 million. I must admit this analysis is very brief and basic, but the main point you should take is, that as the supply dwindles out, the price in raw numbers, would be expected to increase. So, smaller supply decreases will lead to larger price increases as the supply gets closer to zero. Demand Analysis Now it's time to analyse the demand for bitcoin and see if it is going up. The main measurement I will use for this is the transaction volume. I will then relate it to price the same way I did for the price. Looking at the transaction volume in USD for Bitcoin, we see that the chart seems quite similar to the price. Once you do a Pearson Correlation the coefficient comes out at 0.85. Suggesting a strong positive correlation between the two. If the transaction volume of Bitcoin increases would that be a strong signal for a price increase? The answer is Yes. However, the number of confirmed transactions per Bitcoin has never topped 1 million. Since 2017, the range has been between 200k - 400k (Blockchain.com, n.d.) Suggesting that the transaction volume increase has been due to larger USD volume and not the number of transactions increasing. This could suggest that people are transacting with bitcoin but just with higher amounts. This could also mean that the interest in bitcoin from a transaction point of view is not exactly going up. Also, another way to guess the demand for Bitcoin is the number of wallets created. Analysing this measurement, we see that the number of wallets is estimated to be over 100 million. However, the number of active wallets is most likely lower and those wallets that do exist probably do not have that much value. Furthermore, more and more people are becoming aware of bitcoin, but the real interest doesn’t follow suit. 89% of Americans have heard of Bitcoin but that number is not represented in transaction volume or even wallets in existence (Buy Bitcoin Worldwide, n.d.). To conclude, the transaction volume can be a very good indicator of the future price of bitcoin. However, the real interest in bitcoin isn’t following the awareness and acknowledgement of bitcoin. In my opinion, the average person has heard of bitcoin but doesn’t seem to be interested in working or transacting in bitcoin. This doesn’t much from a price point of view but questions the future usage that many bitcoin investors claim. This would mean the demand is not necessarily going up to a significant degree. Especially to a degree that would allow for $1 million per bitcoin. To explain why this doesn’t mean much from a price point of view, many people think that buying power means the price will go up in a certain asset but that’s not the case. There could be 10,000 buyers in a particular asset and one seller. If the seller has more monetary power, then the price of the asset would most likely go down. So even though the number of people using bitcoin may not reach the level many bitcoin investors want, that doesn’t mean the price won't. Also, though the the demand for bitcoin does seem to be increasing, it is largely been driven by larger investors who are transacting in very large volumes, hence why the transaction volume in USD I increasing but the number of transactions isn’t too the same degree, this may not be a problem for the price, since the large investors would have big buying power. But these large investors will not be able to manipulate the market since they will most likely be regulated. So the interest from the general public doesn’t seem increasing to the degree bitcoin investors want and even though big investors are getting into bitcoin, I doubt they will be able to pump the price up to $1 million. Study on what determines cryptocurrency price One interesting thing to note is, that there was a very good study (Hayes, 2017) investigating what drives the value of a certain cryptocurrency. This study found that the main determinant for prices is the relative cost of production. If the cost of mining bitcoin rises too high, then it will not be profitable for miners to mine and that would increase the transaction cost and time of bitcoin - leading to a price fall. This means to get to $1 million per bitcoin, the transaction costs need to be dramatically reduced for miners. If you do not see that happening, then you also shouldn’t see the price getting to $1 million. Main Argument Now to my main argument as to why bitcoin may never get to $1 million per bitcoin. Let me set the stage, if we have a company that has one million shares to sell at $1. If I buy all the shares the company's market cap is at $1 million, but more importantly I have effectively “pumped” one million dollars into the asset, in this case, the company's shares. Using this logic, we can see why Bitcoin may never get to one million. The current market cap is 619 billion dollars. At 32,546 dollars per Bitcoin (coinmarketcap, 2019). For the price to get to one million the market cap would have to grow by almost 30 times. This means the market would be around 19 trillion. So, using the logic above, for Bitcoin to get to one million there must be almost 18.5 trillion dollars pumped into Bitcoin. A question now arises, is that viable? It took Apple almost 40 years to get to a market cap of just 2.47 trillion. Google, 15 years to get to around 1.5 trillion. The value of all gold ever mined is around 9.6 trillion (www.goldeneaglecoin.com, n.d.). So, to me, the market cap of Bitcoin getting to 19 trillion seems very unlikely, there just isn’t enough interest in the asset to get it there. One may say, well what if it isn’t seen as an asset but rather a currency. That would mean more people would buy into it to use for transitions, but the problem is if the price keeps rising then the currency applications go down. Why would I sell my bitcoins to buy a car, let's say, if a week later the price of bitcoin may go up 10% next week? The more volatility in bitcoin the less the viability as a currency, the less volatility means the harder it will be for the price to reach one million. So, the argument, that the currency applications will lead to one million is very weak. The logic is also very extremely weak, if the price rises then the currency applications are lowered, so how can one say currency application will lead to a large influx of capital that will drive the price to $1 million. Conclusion To conclude, the is a good relationship between the supply of bitcoin, the demand for bitcoin and its price. But even though I do see Bitcoin being a part of our future, these relationships do not point to $1 million per Bitcoin. I would keep an eye on the transaction costs for Bitcoin and how profitable it is for miners to get a good idea of where the market could be heading in the future. Also, I would stay away from the very high and unsubstantiated claim of $1 million per Bitcoin. References Cuthbertson, A. (2022). Bitcoin price passing $1 million means society has collapsed, early investor warns. The Independent. Available at: www.independent.co.uk . Jones, C. (2021). One Analyst Has Bitcoin Reaching $4 Million. Forbes. Available at: www.forbes.com . Kharpal, A. (2021). Bitcoin at $1 million? Some analysts are bullish but others warn of risks ahead. CNBC. Available at: www.cnbc.com . finance.yahoo.com. (n.d.). Bitcoin USD (BTC-USD) Price History & Historical Data - Yahoo Finance. Available at: finance.yahoo.com . Rooney, K. (2018). Much of bitcoin’s 2017 boom was market manipulation, research says. CNBC. Available at: www.cnbc.com . Blockchain.com (n.d.). n-transactions. Blockchain.com. Available at: www.blockchain.com Buy Bitcoin Worldwide (n.d.). How Many People Own, Hold & Use Bitcoins? (2022). www.buybitcoinworldwide.com. Available at: www.buybitcoinworldwide.com . Hayes, A.S. (2017). Cryptocurrency value formation: An empirical study leading to a cost of production model for valuing bitcoin. Telematics and Informatics, 34(7), pp.1308–1321. doi:10.1016/j.tele.2016.05.005. coinmarketcap (2019). Bitcoin. CoinMarketCap. Available at: coinmarketcap.com www.goldeneaglecoin.com. (n.d.). Value Of All The Gold In The World | Golden Eagle Coins. Available at: www.goldeneaglecoin.com .
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BlackbearTrader
2
BITCOIN entered the 1D oversold zone for the 3rd time in 1 year.Last time Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke the 30.000 oversold barrier on the 1D time-frame, was on January 21 2022 and May 19 2021. Practically today marked the third time in the last 12 months that this event took place. During both of those capitulation candle sequences, Bitcoin formed a Support and turned sideways for around 2-3 months. During this process, it hit certain trend-lines. First, it took 10 and 15 days respectively for those events to hit the basis (red trend-line) of the Bollinger Bands (green pattern) and from that point another 56 and 65 days respectively to hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Given the max scenario in each case, Bitcoin could reach the Basis line of BB by May 24 and then the 1D MA200 by July 28. In addition, we are just above the Support Zone formed of the May 19 2021 (30100) and June 22 2021 (28600) lows. There is also a Lower Lows trend-line involved with a max extension around 27000. Do those indicate a bottom? And if so, will Bitcoin enter a 2-3 month consolidation on its way to the 1D MA200 yet again? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
47
🔥 BTC / USD — Bitcoin Trading Mid-May 2022🔥Hey there, its Artem and here is update for upcoming week for Bitcoin. After Bitcoin breaking below $37,000 it making impulsive moves down. Now taking $34,000 zone and might take a short recovery week during mid-May. Expectations near $37,000ish and possible continuation down to $29,000 and $24,000 support regions in next 6 months. Currently waiting in cash and taking small risk trades counter-trend (long) to $37.000 to see whats happening next. Stay safe Pray for Ukraine Best regards Artem Shevelev
INDEX:BTCUSD
by ArShevelev
5