Get started

Bitcoinsignals

BITCOIN Perhaps the most critical week of allWe are seeing Bitcoin recovering since last week and so far into the current, we sit on the 2nd straight green 1W candle. This is perhaps the most important week that may show if BTC will restart the long-term bullish trend, or will dip and make a new bottom much lower that the 2022 low. The key here is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which will most likely be tested by the end of this week. The price has failed to close a 1W candle above it, for 12 straight weeks. It is obvious that a break above the 1W MA50 will be a major buy signal. What may be even more important that this, is the 1W RSI, which is forming a pattern that was previously seen in the bottom sequences of December 2018 - January 2019, November 2019 - December 2019 and May 2021 - July 2021. A common feature on all of those sequences is that the break-out came with the LMACD making a Bullish Cross, while at the same time the price broke above the consolidation's Resistance. Right now Bitcoin is very close to the LMACD Bullish Cross, while the RSI is on Higher Highs and is starting to break to the upside. The consolidation's (bottom sequence) Resistance is just below the 46k mark. Coincidentally, this is exactly where the 1W MA50 currently is. Has the time finally come for BTC to break above it? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
46
TOTAL CRYPTO-CAP, Bullish Perspectives As Bull-Flag Builds Up!Hello Cryptocurrency Community, Welcome to this new analysis of mine about the Total Cryptocurrency Market-Cap displayed as the market-cap valuation in US-Dollar on the 4-hour timeframe perspectives. In recent times many mixed signals have hit the market however what is a prevailing imperative in this market environment is that the Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency technological mainstream adoption is actually moving forward, this is also why we did not have seen a devastating breakdown to the downside yet. There are further mainstreams adoptions markable such as Rio de Janeiro saving a part of its GDP to hedge against inflation, old economic investment bank Goldman Sachs completing its first Bitcoin Over-The-Counter trade or Malaysia considers to make Bitcoin a legal tender which would be the second country to move on with this fundamental action. These establishments show that the demand to adopt Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency is not decreasing however, in this case, it is also necessary to watch on the actual Price-Action-Determinations therefore I detected important signs, formations, and what to expect in the upcoming times. As when looking on my chart now we can watch there that the Total Cryptocurrency Market-Cap Price-Action recently managed to breakout above the 710 Billion US-Dollar valuation mark and increased bullishness above this region to form a higher high in this zone. Besides that, we can watch a main ascending-channel-formation developing in the range marked in my chart with the orange channel. In this channel the Total Cryptocurrency Market-Cap is developing a wave-count of which the waves A and B are already completed. Now as the Total Cryptocurrency Market-Cap is approaching the main local resistance this is indicative for a pullback to the downside which will complete the wave-count with the wave C. When this happens the Total Cryptocurrency Market-Cap has substantial support within the major Structure-Support marked in my chart in blue, when the Total Cryptocurrency Market-Cap manages to bounce in this zone it will be the appropriate origin of the completion of the whole channel as a bull-flag once the price-action settles above the upper boundary it activates the main target-zone seen in my chart. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "Good fortune is when opportunity meets preparation." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by VincePrince
2
BITCOIN The Vortex Indicator shows the bottomThis is Bitcoin on the 1M (monthly) time-frame where the short/medium-term noise is filtered out and cyclical behavior can be better illustrated. A rather 'unappreciated' indicator is the VI (Vortex Indicator), which on this long-term chart, gives a clear signal on where the bottom might be in. As you see, every time the red line of the VI crosses above the blue line (Bearish Cross) on the 1M chart, then by the next 1M candle, the market bottom is priced in. Basically in a total of 4 occurrences since 2011, all bottoms have already be in by the time of the VI Cross, and only the January 2015 candle priced the bottom straight after the Cross. Right now, the VI is on course to form a new Bearish Cross, probably by April or May. If this sequence continues to play out, then by the May or June monthly candle, Bitcoin should price the bottom (if not already in). Note that on the August 2012 and September 2020 monthly candles, BTC was above the 1M MA20 (green trend-line), while on the January 2015 and December 2018, it was below. Do you think the price will break below the 1M MA20 by May/ June or the bottom is already in? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
33
BITCOIN close to a LMACD Bullish Cross. What does the past show?The LMACD (MACD on the logarithmic scale), is a very useful indicator when trying to identify trend shifts, especially on the long-term time-frames. It is particulary fit to Bitcoin when analyzing its historic Cycles on the 1W chart. It appears that the LMACD is only 2-3 weeks away from forming a Bullish Cross (blue line crossing above the orange line) on the 1W time-frame. As the specification suggests, it is a bullish formation technically, and history certainly agrees with it as in a total of 16 LMACD Bullish Crosses only 2 failed to deliver a Higher High. In fact, both of those where the first Bullish Cross in the last two Bear Cycles (red Rectangles). Assuming that since April 2020, BTC is running on a new Bear Cycle (the smoothest as I've called it in past analyses), we see that it has already made one Bullish Cross that delivered a rally and not a new Low. If the upcoming Bullish Cross fails to post a new rally, it will historically be the first time to do so as a 2nd Bullish Cross within a Bear Cycle. It is obvious that odds are vastly against this scenario and most likely the next LMACD Bullish Cross on the 1W time-frame will deliver a rally that will leave behind the Cycle's market bottom. Would you agree or you think this time is different and the next Bullish Cross will deliver a new Low (likely the market bottom)? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
12
💥UPDATE - HERE IS WHY BITCOIN WILL DROP TO $15,000😬Please support this idea with a LIKE👍 Not a financial advice🙅🏼‍♂️ My bias is based on the fact that after a particular region has been serving as a reliable support for a very long time as seen here, it will become weak and price will eventually break it and hit a low. Extreme fear will set in, then price will take off for a new high. This idea is based on historical price movement on the chart. This idea is a speculation, not an affirmation. Before you criticize, read my reasons here👇👇 If you study the chart closely, you will notice that in DEC’2017 , Bitcoin price hit an all time high at $19,000 . Then it started to drop. Price was falling from DEC’2017 - OCT’2018 with $6,000 price serving as a reliable support. Unfortunately, the controversies between Bitcoin Cash developers in 2018 and some other factors made Bitcoin break the major support level at $6,000 in November'2018 . Then price dropped from this support level breakout from $6,000 to $3,200 Then Bitcoin price spiked from $3200 to another high at $14,000 in JUN’2017 Then price kept falling from this high in a descending channel pattern. Then later broke the support region which made Bitcoin price crash from $7,400 to $3,800 in March’2018 . This Bitcoin crash was caused by the COVID’19 outbreak. Then surprisingly, Bitcoin spiked from $3800 to a new ATH at $64,700 in APRIL’2021 Then price dropped to a new region which became a reliable support for Bitcoin at $29,000 - $31,000. Price has tested this zone 3-4 times. Therefore, I expect Bitcoin to test this region again and break it. As indicated on the chart, each time bitcoin break the support region, it falls by 47% - 49%. Therefore, I expect a crash by 47% from the $29,000 - $31,000 support region to $15,000 - $16,000 region. Also, a major/global crisis is always the determinant factor that influence the support region breakout. In 2018, it was influenced by the Bitcoin Cash developers disagreement. In 2020, it was influenced by the coronavirus outbreak. For 2022, the support region is yet to break . Which crisis did you think will break this support region? Share your opinion in the comment section✍️ You can also demand for analysis of your preferred coin Follow me stay updated about this coin and more helpful projects like this🎁 Happy Trading💰🥳🤗
Short
by PetrockFxTrading
14
BITCOIN $100k or $25k? Comparing today and 2015.Two fractals of now (2021/22) and then (2015/16), two different time-frames (3D and 2D respectively). It is evident that price-wise the two sequences look the same. The MA50 (blue trend-line) is the Resistance, when it broke in 2015, the rally of the recovery started. A Higher Highs trend-line on both. However, the RSI in 2015 has been on Higher Highs too but currently, since 2021, it is on Lower Highs. Potentially that indicates a hidden Bearish Divergence. So far the MA200 (orange trend-line) is supporting but if we close below it, this RSI Bearish Divergence could develop into a price bearish trend. A break above the MA50 invalidates that and should be enough to kick-start the rally towards $100k. Which of the two will prevail? The RSI Bearish Divergence or the MA50 will break? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
53
BITCOIN, MASSIVE Triangle-Formation, MAIN POSSIBILITIES!Hello, Welcome to this analysis about Bitcoin and the daily timeframe perspectives. Bitcoin in recent times has moved into a pivotal determination zone from where further developments will show its upcoming destinies. In this case, we need to see the changing dynamics in Bitcoins fundamental landscape as on the one side technological developments are moving forward while new regulatory movements are set in the such as the U.S. as well as the E.U. implementing a regulatory framework that is looking for several diverging developments to be implemented in Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency as an asset-class. On a more Long-Term-Perspective these establishments are likely to have an increased positive impact as Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency are becoming increasingly mainstream however on the more Middle-Term-Perspectives it is also of high importance to look at the technical factors as well. Therefore I detected the major formation Bitcoin is forming here and what we can derive from it for the upcoming destinies. Determining Developments: As when looking at my chart now we can watch there how Bitcoin moved into a huge range between 33.000 and 46.000 USD level, these two levels are the momentous boundaries in this whole range. Besides that Bitcoin is now building this paramount triangle formation where the lower boundary is steeper than the upper boundary. Within this triangle formation Bitcoin has the coherent wave-count with the waves A to C almost completed and now we can see that Bitcoin is setting up to form the wave D and the wave E. In the upcoming times, with the completion of the wave count, it is likely that the wave E finalizes within the main Decision-Zone marked in my chart in orange, from this level the final decisive movements will setup and Bitcoin will either conclude scenario A with breaking out above the Upper-Boundary as seen in my chart or the scenario B with breaking out below the lower boundary and also below the Decision-Zone. Upcoming Destinies: Taking all these factors into the consideration now it will be highly pivotal to await the final confirmations before moving to further conclusions. Nevertheless, as the factors are showing us now the bullish scenario A has with 65% a higher possibility to emerge than the bearish scenario with a possibility of 35%. This is given due to the fact that Bitcoin still has substantial support within the Point-Of-Control marked with the red line in my chart and also by past price action. Therefore when the scenario finalizes it will activate the upper Target-Zone as shown in my chart between the 50.700 and the 52.200 USD level. The objected possibilities can also change if Bitcoin shows up with increased bearish pressure and volume while completing the wave-count and in this case when Bitcoin does so and scenario B gets more likely the range between 29.700 and 30.200 USD will be activated as the Target-Zone if Bitcoin should complete the Triangle into this direction. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "There are many roads to prosperity, but one must be taken." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
15
BITCOIN Ultimate historic Fibonacci extensions cheat-sheetOn this analysis I am taking Bitcoin's price action since it first started trading. I've used the Fibonacci Channel extensions to identify any possible correlations with how its Logarithmic Growth curve (the parabola that fuels BTC's growth on each Cycle) is shaped over the years. I've made several publications on why the +.382 Fibonacci extension roughly calculates the Highs. I've plotted that on this chart again and as you see so far the 2.382 Fibonacci extension has roughly predicted the December 2013 High while the 3.382 extension, the December 2017 High. The 4.383 Fib extension roughly sits at $350k. But let's circle back to how the Fibonacci Channel extensions can relate to these patterns. As you see, the first two Cycle Highs have been (naturally for the first) on the 0.0 Fib with bottoms outside of the 0.5 Fib. The High of the next Cycle was on the 0.5 Fib with the Low outside of the 1.0 Fib. The High of April 2021 was outside of Fib 1.0 and the current Low of 2022 exactly on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension of the Channel. This pattern, though not perfect, it shapes fairly well Bitcoin's parabolic path over the years. Based on that, the next High should be either on or on the left of Fibonacci Channel extension 1.5 and the Low either on or left of extension 2.0. Regarding the High that projection fits well with the 4.382 horizontal Fib extension of $350000 and could be achieved by the end of 2023. Is this a wild projection to make? What do you think? Can those Fibonacci Channel extension identify the logarithmic path of Bitcoin and if so is $350k a reasonable estimate? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
69
BITCOIN Is this Triangle a bottom formation?Another fractal analysis on Bitcoin. This time I compare today's price action on the 1D time-frame versus the February - April 2020 price action on the 12H time-frame. The reason for the difference between time-frames is the rate of variability. Due to the COVID flash crash of March 2020 and the equally fast and impressive recovery of the global markets due to the enormous money printing in the form of economic rescue packages, things evolved much faster in 2020. As you see, both in RSI terms and other indicators (MA50, MA200, Golden and Death Crosses), the two fractals are very similar. If we ignore the irregularity of the 1 week meltdown in mid-March, the 2020 Triangle was a market bottom formation. The market accumulated after the economic reassurances by the Fed and U.S. government in the form of this Triangle and after a break above the MA50 (blue trend-line), BTC broke above the Lower Highs (top) of the pattern. After it re-tested the top and the MA50 as a Support and held, the Ichimoku Cloud turned green and then entered an aggressive multi-month parabolic rally, which never looked back. Right now Bitcoin is still (accumulating?) within the Triangle, around the 1D MA50, but with the Ichimoku Cloud just turning green. Do you think this is a sign of bottoming? Will a break above the Triangle set in motion a rally similar to April-May 2020? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
42
BITCOIN Ascending Triangle and break-out targetsBitcoin has completed 2 months of side-ways consolidation and as this chart on the 1D time-frame shows, it has done so within an Ascending Triangle pattern. Its last top came with a rejection on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is quite important but if this manages to break soon on the next Resistance test, then most likely the Triangle will break to the upside. Note that as long as the 1D CCI is within its neutral zone, most likely trading will be sustained within the Triangle. A break of the Triangle to the upside, still has to overcome the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which is the final barrier of turning bullish on the long-term, but technically the Fibonacci extensions will come into play: 1.5 at 50880, 2.0 at 56370 2.5 at 61850 and 3.0 at 67350. Notice that all of them match fairly well with previous Lower Highs during the down-trend. Similarly, a break of the Triangle to the downside, could target the -0.5 Fib at 28900 and -1.0 Fib extensions at 23450. So which way do you think this Ascending Triangle will break to and how high/ low can it get? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
38
BITCOIN Consolidation until the 1D MA200 breaks.Weekend fractal fun time for Bitcoin fans. Will keep it as short as possible. On the left we have BTC on the 1D time-frame today and on the right BTC on the 6H time-frame in July - September 2021. Not exact copies of each other, but with striking similarities nonetheless, especially on the CCI indicator. In 2021, a break above the MA200 (orange trend-line), was enough to initiate the massive end-of-the-year rally. Can a break above the 1D MA200 this time kick-start a similar one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
38
BITCOIN, Ability Present To Complete Pivotal Triangle-Formation!Hi Community, Since Bitcoin in recent times increased with bullish volatility and initially pulled back to test previous ranges it is forming an interesting formational structure here that is likely to be worthwhile for the incoming price-action-events. Mainly we can watch an increased demand coming into Bitcoin and the whole Cryptocurrency market as geopolitical events paired with Inflation point to people increasing their trust in Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency, we can see this manifested in real volume and trading activity which increased over recent times. Also from a technological-adoption- and mainstream-adoption- perspective there is an acceleration of adoption moving forward, such as Mexico as the second official country after El Salvador considers making Bitcoin a legal tender. Besides that eBay as a main established e-commerce platform is looking to adopt Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency as a payment method. These developments are positive indications for a long-term bullish perspective and are likely to contribute as such if there are no regulatory, restrictionary, economic, technological or environmental events that can alter this bullish long-term sentiment again, as Traders it is necessary to consider these determinations to have a rounded approach to the market. Looking at my chart now we can watch there how Bitcoin is forming a central formation here which is a descending-triangle-formation, such a descending-triangle-formation is an efficient indication for concluding a reversal when the right price-action settles. Therefore as Bitcoin already completed the coherent wave-count reaching from A to C within the formation and is now approaching the lower boundary of the formation in which it has appropriate support determined by the lower boundary of Bitcoins main ascending-channel together with the 300-EMA marked in blue, there is a solid potential given that Bitcoin has the ability to form the decisive bounce above the upper-boundary of the formation in this range. Once such a bounce has emerged it will be the technical confirmation and completion of the descending-triangle-formation and it will point to the final setup from where Bitcoin has the right fundament to build upon, besides that this will also validate the target-zones seen in my chart. Once the target-zone of 44.500 USD has been reached Bitcoin has to show how it moves into this zone and if Bitcoin manages to form a continuation-formation in this area because when this happens Bitcoin has the potential for forming a wave-C-extension when it manages to breakout into the bullish-continuation-zone. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best! "The day of fortune is like a harvest day, We must be present when the corn is ripe." Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
by VincePrince
13
BITCOIN / NASDAQ ratio. Time to cut from tech & go heavy on BTC?I present to you a very interesting symbol combo, the Bitcoin/ Nasdaq ratio. In recent years one has outperformed the other and vice versa, which those interchanges being caused by the market fundamentals and macro-economics at the time such as Musk and China ban favoring Nasdaq over Bitcoin last year. In recent days however we see the current war climate in Ukraine favoring Bitcoin over the tech index. In fact, the ratio hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) this week for the first time since late November 2021. Currently we are within a Triangle pattern. The last two times the ratio broke above the 1W MA50 after the Sine-wave bottom, a buy signal was triggered. In fact it was a massive one in both cases. Check also the RSI sequences, all three periods look very similar. Currently the RSI is testing its Lower Highs trend-line. A break, most likely tells us that the bottom is in. So will a break above the 1W MA50 mean we should cut from our Nasdaq portfolios and go heavier into Bitcoin? What do you think? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
11
Bitcoin - Important Levels :$41100-$41500 for The Next Rise...Hello, We respected the forecast made at the beginning of the week. The next important levels are those between $41170 and $41600. This area needs to hold in order to resume a sustained rise with prices hovering around the red Max flow-lines during this early March. (the slopes of these Flow-lines are calculated according to the mathematical principles of econophysics). If we break these levels and explore the time-price matrix of the red rectangle, the pace of the rise could be reduced to the long-term and short-term channels of the blue Moderate Flow lines. For the moment the time-price relationship is excellent. To be continued... Xavier
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TheoKalia
BITCOIN started a new Bull Cycle last time the Dollar did this.On this chart I've plotted Bitcoin against the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1W time-frame. It is a simple comparison of time phases. As you see, the DXY (black line) has reached in recent weeks a symmetrical level which during 2019 it started forming a Channel Up. At the same time Bitcoin (orange line) made the bottom of its 2018 Bear Cycle and started the new Bull Cycle. Right now the pattern formed on Bitcoin is very similar to that of the December 2018 - January 2019 Bear Cycle bottom. I have made a case in previous publications that Bitcoin may be in a mini (I called it in fact the 'smoothest' ever) Bear Cycle since the April 2021 High. Now that seems to be very consistent with that fractal comparison on DXY. Do you think the symmetrical pattern that DXY is forming may be an indication that BTC has bottomed? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
49
Bear Market RoadmapThe bear market has been underway for a while now ever since the top in April 12th 2021 I believe we have been in a bear market and in a distribution phase, even though we did make a higher high later on the year I still have come to the conclusion that we are indeed in a bear market. The TA i posted a while back “The satoshi Prophecy” while still not technically invailded because in that TA my thesis is that May 2022 is the top for the cycle based on a Fibannaci time sequence of Chain Link, I still think it will eventually it will be invalided coming May 2022 as not the cycle top but as the bottom of the bear market ,you can check that out below. As soon as we lost the 8/1 Gann on Bitcoin I new things were about to get rocky but I still pushed and thought we were in a bull market because I kept finding things that backed my May 2022 cycle top case for example I posted the blue fibonacci log theory which you can check below . Weeks later we would break the blue fib log after that there was no case for the bulls anymore , historically breaking the blue fibonacci log confirms a bear market. In reality breaking the 8/1 Gann and not holding as support should have been the line but I was so focused on the Chain Link Fibonacci count that I did not see things coming, check out below on how we broke support the week of new year. Normally to trigger a Bull market or continue an uptrend we hold 8/1 as support and break higher like below in 2020. So what comes next, well looking at the golden multiplier trend lines we can see whenever Bitcoin follows below the last orange line we enter a bear market , right now we have been under it for a while now. Once below Bitcoin normally bottoms on an average of about 120days and breaks above the orange line in an average of 270 days which would put us in September to break out and amazingly May 2022 for a bottom , amazing that it lines up with May 2022 So what can we expect is a retest of the orange line at one point that ends up in a failed rally happens every time in history in a bear market 2011 2015 2018 Present Day Showing a possible outcome for this year 2022 So now we come to the most important piece of evidence that we are in a bear market and that would be the June 2018 bear market fractal that has played out 1:1 almost perfectly . Present Day with June 2018 Fractal June 2018 pattern Also cover this in the TA below It is a mirror pattern , mind blowing stuff and during June 2018 we also had a MACD bearish cross on the monthly which has happened now as well! So if the June 2018 bear market fractal plays out we retest 33k and create a double bottom sometime in the next 10days maybe and then have a rally to the orange line we talked about before which more or less lines with the 0.618 you can see that in the main chart above . There is this 3/1 Gann which I have been following for a while that Bitcoin can’t seem to break take a look at the TA below . I believe Bitcoin will most likely fail to break this gann line until we form that double bottom and finally to finish off volume , we had no capitulation volume come in , every time we have a major bottom or top there is a huge spike in volume. So how I think 2022 plays out 1- Revisit 33k form double bottom 2- Rally to 0.618 or orange line(Golden Multiplier) anywhere from 45k-56k to Mid-late March 2022 3-Get nuked down into May maybe capitulation wick down to 25/27k before closing at 30k 4- Come out of Bear market September 2022 5-Cycle Top June 2023
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sporia
1
BITCOIN closed 1st green month after 3straight red! Buy or sell?So Bitcoin closed yesterday its 1st green month after a series of 3 red monthly closings since the November All Time High (ATH). Is this bullish or bearish on the long-term? One way to answer this is to see how the price moved after a similar monthly pattern. This chart is obviously on the 1M time-frame with the blue trend-line being the 1M MA50 but with the red being the MA50on a different time-frame, the 1W. To have a larger sample, I've included the cases where a green 1M candle appeared after 3 or more straight red. Other than the current, these parameters return 7 other such patterns: * The most recent being the July 2021 1M green candle, which formed after 3 straight red. The price made a new High after that with the 1W MA50 supporting. * The October 2019 1M green candle was also formed after 3 straight red. The price made a new Low after that as the 1W MA50 failed to support. * The February 2019 1M green candle was formed after 6 straight red. This was slightly after the bottom of the 2019 Bear Cycle and the price made a new High, effectively kickstarting the start of the new Bull Cycle with the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting. * The June 2015 1M green candle was formed after 3 straight red. This was also slightly after the bottom of the 2014/15 Bear Cycle and the price made a new High, effectively kickstarting next Bull Cycle with the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting. * The November 2014 1M green candle was formed after 4 straight red. The price made a new Low after that as it failed to break above the 1W MA50. * The May 2014 1M green candle was formed after 3 straight red. The price made a new Low after that as the 1W MA50 failed to support. * Finally, the December 2011 1M green candle was formed after 5 straight red. This was slightly after the bottom of the 2011 Bear Cycle and the price made a new High, effectively kickstarting the start of the new Bull Cycle, which came after BTC broke above the 1W MA50. Check this series on the snapshot below, if you don't want to scroll the main chart to the left: So as you can calculate based on the sample above, historically when a green 1M candle has formed after 3 or more straight red, BTCUSD moved on to a new High more times (4) than a new Low (3). The key here seems to be the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), which every time it broke to the upside after such a pattern, it always delivered a new High (3 times) relative to when the red streak started. Basically all of those 3 times it did, Bitcoin had just priced the bottom of a Bear Cycle and was at the start of a Bull Cycle. I've included the 1M RSI indicator on this chart to show that, based on this, with it being on Lower Highs and currently below its (RSI based) MA (yellow trend-line), the price action since the April 2021 High looks more like a Bear Cycle. That is a subject I've touched in more detail in previous analyses of mine, one of which you can find below. So how do you think BTC will trade following this 1st green monthly candle after 3 straight red? Is this buy or sell signal? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
18
Bitcoin/USDT - Russia/UkrainFebruary ended with a very bullish closure which was surprising for many with the current economic climate and uncertainty surrounding humanitarian risk coming out of Eastern Europe. Last week majority of the globe imposed sanctions on Russia including the ban of Swift payments but it doesn't appear this was something which caught Russia off guard as they had already moved towards making Bitcoin legal tender two weeks previously. These sanctions pushed Russia into a position where buying Bitcoin was their best and possibly only way of being able to continue with any possible trade deals. Additional to this millions of $'s were ploughed into Bitcoin and used to provide donations towards those affected in Ukraine. Now we understand what caused Bitcoin to gain great momentum in the latter part of February we can now enter March with a clearer picture of what is most likely to lie ahead, at least in the short term. Bitcoin closed on 28th February finding resistance on the daily and monthly level circa to $43,400, leaving the most likely outcome to be a reversal over the coming days back down towards $36,000 with the strong possibility of breaking through to head towards $30,000, wicking as low as $28.000. The market is being held afloat by the potential of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine but any positive outcome from this is very unlikely after the damage which has already been caused. In other news, Ebay are rumoured to be considering the possibility of integrating cryptocurrency payments into their platform. So whilst we have a short term bearish play in mind, the bigger picture is very bullish and considering how government bodies naturally moved towards Bitcoin as their economy was collapsing it shows that the consideration for Bitcoin to become an underlying store of value for GBDC's in the future is highly possible. Short trade signal - BTC/USDT Entry: $43,800 Stop Loss: $46,200 Take profit levels (50/50 split): $36,700 and $30,680
Short
by ZeroGravityGB
1
BITCOIN Will 20k happen?A lot of talk has been happening lately, whether Bitcoin has found a bottom or if the June 2021 breaks will see even lower prices such as 20k. Well, we can never rule out anything in the investing world, everything is open as a possibility. Based on BTC's historic price action though, we can get a fair understanding of the probabilities involved. ** The Green Zone and the Black Swan that broke it ** As you see, this is BTC on the 1W time-frame from 2012 to 2022. Since mid January 2022, the price entered the long-term Buy Zone (green area) and immediately reacted with a rebound. However, due to the recent events in Ukraine, we've been seeing a pull-back, which is still a Higher Low though. Wars are considered a Black Swan event, similar to the COVID flash crash in March 2020. As shown on the chart, that event was enough to make the price break below its multi-year Buy Zone and only find Support one Fib extension lower (2.0 Fib). As a result we can assume that if the current conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalates more aggressively into a war involving more countries, it could turn into another Black Swan event. The probabilities for that though depend on each person's understanding of reality. ** Previous Peak never re-tested ** Realistically that event doesn't have the highest probability to happen. As a result, it is most likely that the current levels are the new bottom of the long-term price action. At the same time historically, Bitcoin has never hit the Peak of the previous Cycle. Anything can happen of course, but it is a fact that the $32.00 peak "never happened", the $1250 peak "never happened", so most likely we won't see BTC hitting the $20000 peak of the previous Cycle either. In fact, the 1W candle action since the November High, and in particular that since the mid January low, resembles the price action of every single Bear Cycle bottom: November 2018 - January 2019, July - October 2015 and January - May 2012 (Circle inside Blue Pattern). So what do you think? Will 20k happen for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
38