BITCOIN, CRUCIAL FORMATION Can Be Catalyst For NEXT IMPULSE!Hello Cryptocurrency Community,
Welcome to this pivotal crucial Bitcoin analysis about the 12-hour timeframe perspectives, the recent events, the current formational structure, and what we should expect in the upcoming times. The main potential inverse head-shoulder-formation that I mentioned in my previous analysis has now been invalidated to the downside and activated scenario 2 for Bitcoin, if you did not see this analysis already I highly recommend watching it as this analysis is coherently building upon it. Therefore as Bitcoin now invalidated this bearish scenario due to the volatility that recently increased the paradigm has shifted and in this case, I detected important formational factors that are important to take into account right now.
Structural Formation And Incoming Determinations:
Looking at my chart we can watch there how Bitcoin since recently increased with bearish volatilities has moved into the crucial 34.400 USD support marked in my chart in blue and has now tested this support, this support was already tested previously and the more often Bitcoin tests this support the weaker it gets. Nevertheless currently on the more local timeframes Bitcoin is also building this broadening-wedge-formation that I will link here, when this formation completes Bitcoin has the ability to breakout and initially move into the remaining resistances where Bitcoin has strong resistances within the 38.600 to 40.000 USD area that is marked in my chart in red, therefore, when Bitcoin reaches out there it will be a highly likely origin of a bearish pullback to the downside.
Upcoming Destinies To Consider:
Taking all these factors into the consideration now when Bitcoin pulls back off the massive bearish-resistance-cluster as marked in my chart this is just one step forward for completing the huge massive bearish indicated descending-triangle-formation that Bitcoin forms here marked in my chart with the coherent wave-count within which will complete when Bitcoin finalizes the wave-E in the triangle and once this happened with Bitcoin breaking below the lower boundary it will activate the bearish continuations and Bitcoin reaching out lower levels, therefore, the 24.500 USD zone as marked in my chart will be a likely target to be reached once this whole formation has been completed, therefore it is highly necessary that we keep patient and prepare on such increased volatilities upcoming.
Local Broadening-Wedge-Formation With The Resistance-Pullback-Scenario Indicated:
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best!
"The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Bitcoinsignals
BITCOIN The OBV indicator says we're still accumulating.This is a simple yet very effective projection provided by the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator. I've charted Bitcoin on the 1W time-frame on this one in order to include all of its historic price action.
This one year sideways (though the margin is wide, it is still sideways for BTC's standard volatility) price action based on the OBV is nothing more than an Accumulation Phase. This is similar to June 2016 - April 2017 on the previous Cycle and with July 2012 - December 2012 on the one before. As you see, the OBV also provides clear patterns for the Cycle's final rally towards the Peak and the Bottom. Right now the closest pattern this past year looks like is the Accumulation.
This approach indicates that by the end of this year or beginning of the next, we should see the current Cycle making a peak. Where that can be? Well since each of the past two Cycles peaked on a +.382 Fibonacci progression (2.382 in Dec 2013 and 3.382 in Dec 2017), then the 4.382 Fib should be the next candidate for a peak, which is around $280000.
So what do you think about this OBV approach? Is it reliable in suggesting which part of the Cycle we're currently at? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN is exactly where 3 tech giants have been in the past!Bitcoin has been consolidating for almost 1 year within a wide range that many market participants consider nothing more than a long-term Accumulation Phase. Well there is nothing better to strengthen this notion than this new analysis I present to you, based on how three tech giants (Amazon, Google, Apple) traded during a similar pattern.
First of all, in order to make the sample as diverse as possible, I've included fractals during time periods that are very different from each other. Amazon in 2009/2010 just after the subprime mortgage crisis, Google in 2014/2015 during the first major consolidation of the post crisis recover and Apple in 1998/1999 during the last years of the build up of the DotCom Bubble. This is a diverse enough sample to provide as an unbiased evaluation as possible.
So as you see, all tech giants made a bottom after the price broke below their respective 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) period and the Ichimoku Cloud. Then they started a rise, which evolved into a very aggressive rally. Even though all 4 fractals are similar, Bitcoin looks a little bit more like the Apple late 90s pattern, while Amazon and Google are more similar as the bottom below the 1W MA50s was a Lower Low. Bitcoin's (so far) and Apple's second corrective waves are Higher Lows and not Lower Lows. On the other hand though, Bitcoin and Google are the only fractals whose second waves broke below the Ichimoku Cloud, with that turning red for a short while, and the 1W MA50 turning sideways. Due to that, Google consolidated for around 4 months more around the 1W MA50 before rallying into a new All Time High.
What do you think will be the case for Bitcoin? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN, Develops CRUCIAL BEAR-FLAG, Determining Objections Now!Good Day Cryptocurrency Community,
Welcome to this pivotal analysis about the Bitcoin situation on the 2-hour timeframe perspectives. Since Bitcoin recently managed to hold the $42,000 area we have seen an initial bounce of $2,600 here with Bitcoin moving into the $44,600 level and confirming as at an important resistance, in fact, Bitcoin still had resistance in this area developed by past price actions. While Bitcoins technological adoption goes forward with the institutional interest growing exponentially since the beginning of 2022 as the SEC filings that mention "Bitcoin" accelerated heavily and other old economy investors such as Warren Buffet investing into Bitcoin-friendly startups there are still increasing regulatory and restrictionary pressures that burden Bitcoin such as governments freezing Bitcoin wallets. In such environment it is necessary to distinguish between the short and long term perspectives. As I already mentioned in posts and on my YouTube channel Bitcoin has still solid fundaments for a bullish destiny on the more long term perspectives however from a short term and trading perspectives it is necessary to zoom in and see where Bitcoin is heading to have a proper trading lineup in the market, in this case I detected the central factors and upcoming determinations that are pivotal now.
As when looking at my chart we can watch there how Bitcoin since bouncing off the $42,000 area Bitcoin moved on into this highly crucial descending resistance line which is marked in red in my chart, besides that Bitcoin has formed this main ascending channel and in this channel tested the $46,600 area from where it now several times pulled back and confirmed this area as a respected resistance. In this case now there is a increased likelihood that Bitcoin completes the ascending channel as a bear flag below the lower boundary as it is seen in my chart from there on a continuation to the $42,055 level is indicated, it is also possible that Bitcoin firstly bounces and makes a new structure high above the $44,750 level before moving into this initial bear flag target zone. Once the initial target zone has been reached it will be highly determining on if Bitcoin holds this level substantially or just sets up for a bearish continuation, in this case, when Bitcoin moves below the $42,200 area this will lead to the wave C extension and Bitcoin reaching out the final bear flag target zone. In any case it is necessary that we keep prepared on upcoming volatilities and shifting dynamics to do not overspeculate the market in this critical phase, it will be an important dynamic ahead.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, all the best!
"The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
BITCOIN The correction is coming to an end. Fractal with 2019/20A month ago I first suggested the idea that the current correction may be another Bear Cycle and that as Bitcoin gets more institutionalized and achieves further adoption, these 'smoother' Bear Cycles may be the norm from now on:
This time I take it a step further and compare the 2021/22 correction with that of 2019/20. Now, I need to state the obvious before we begin, that 2020 had the Black Swan of the COVID outbreak, an (anomaly) event that only happens once in 100 years and can't be comparable to anything we have in our samples. However even if we filter this out, we find interesting similarities between the two periods.
Using the Gaussian Channel, we get a better sense of the cyclical behavior of phases and the net volume indicator on the stages. Both fractals initially made a slight break below the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), recovered but later broke again below it significantly. Only when the price recovered both the 1W MA50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), was the recovery confirmed and the new parabolic rally of 2020 could begin. At the moment it seems BTC is in that stage of attempting to break above this MA zone.
Notice also the importance of Net Volume in all of this. Even before they reached their respective peaks, the volume started to descend. In 2020, the big volume spike started around the time Bitcoin broke about that MA zone I mentioned (1W MA50 - 1D MA200). It seems like such a big volume spike is needed in order to say with some degree of certainty that Bitcoin has resumed the bullish trend towards new All Time High.
So what do you think about this analysis? Are such corrections the new norm of a Bear Cycle and if so can 2020 be a guide for 2022? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Swing Bearish bias! sell!Bitcoin Swing Bearish bias! sell!
Bitcoin has been trading in an uptrend
But then it broke the 41800 area and broke the long-term ascending support level
The penetration is decisive
Which makes it in a downtrend according to the sub-channel after retesting the previous area 41800
I think it will continue to decline
BITCOIN Inverse Head & Shoulders target $56k based on the passBitcoin has bottomed out, completing the correction that started after the November 10 2021 All Time High (ATH) as it recently broke above not only its 1D MA50 but also the natural barrier of the Lower Highs trend-line as I showed on this analysis 10 days ago:
The 1D MA50 is holding as a Support and this is forming an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a formation seen on market bottoms. In BTC's recent history on the 1D time-frame, when similar patterns broke out to the upside, they targeted the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. In particular, this chart shows three prior formations (not all exactly core IH&S but we can use the analogy) that after the Resistance broke, hit the 2.0 Fib extension. This level is currently at $55900. Notice also how on all four patterns, the break-out leg displayed the same aggressive 1D RSI sequence (Channel).
We can go even further back and see a November 2020 formation that also reached its 2.0 Fib on an aggressive leg:
So what do you think? Do you agree with this pattern that Bitcoin's next medium-term target is its 2.0 Fib at $55.9k? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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High-Risk Trading - BTC LONG!BTC LONG
entry - $41956
target - $43316
stop - has already moved to Breakeven - $42040 (while we had an idea, the price went in our direction). Breakeven is placed quickly, as the deal is against the local trend.
The leverage x20 ( 5% of the entire margin deposit).
In case of continuation of price movement in the wedge, we plan to re-enter the trade at about $41400
BITCOIN What if we're just in the 2nd historic cycle?This is an idea I've been meaning to do for some time as I was going through some comparisons of Fibonacci levels within Bitcoin's long-term Cycles.
The one rough constant I found within Cycles historically that may change the scene as we know it is the number 2.6. Until now, this appears to be the number of times that the phases since August 2015 are longer than their respective before that date. I will go into more detail what I mean by that.
* The 1st rally phase from July 2010 to the June 2011 High can be compared with the 1st rally phase of August 2015 to the December 2017 High. The latter phase is roughly 2.6 times longer than the former
* The Pull-back phase of June 2011 to October 2011 is comparable to the Pull-back phase of December 2017 to December 2018. The latter phase is roughly 2.6 times longer than the former
As a result we can assume that these two form the start of two separate MEGA CYCLES, instead of the traditional notion that BTC is already on its 4th Cycle. If we keep the same constant of the Cycle 2 separate phases being 2.6 times longer than their respective phases of Cycle 2 then we can assume that:
* Bitcoin is currently on the 2nd Rally Phase of Cycle 2 which will be 2.6 times longer than the one of Cycle 1, thus lasting until June 2024! How how can it go? Well based on Cycle 1, whose peak was within the 1.382 and 1.5 Fibonacci extensions, that can be anywhere within $125k - $220k!
* The Bear market of Cycle 1 is from December 2013 to August 2015, which is longer that the pull-back phase, thus 'feeling' more natural to be called 'Bear market'. Similarly the Bear Market of Cycle 2 should be 2.6 times longer and extend up to December 2028!
I know this is the first time it is argued that Bitcoin might be in just its 2nd historic Cycle but in my opinion it does offer a fresh perspective and certainly food for thought. Do you agree with such a theory? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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bitcoinThe bitcoin market is bullish. I have weighed all the aspects. When the bullish market is bullish, the climb is the path with the least resistance, which I found out by looking at the volume.
First line resistance
First line resistance
First line resistance
First line resistance
First line resistance
First line resistance
BITCOIN repeating the July-Aug 2022 recovery. 50k next?Since the end of January, I've been comparing the correction since the November High to that of May 2021:
That chart was on the 1W time-frame. Using the 4H time-frame this time, we can see how the recovery that started on the January 24 bottom is very similar to that of July - August 2021.
As you see, both broke above their 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and made a top on the 1.1236 Fibonacci extension level from their last High of the correction sequence. That peak led by a Head and Shoulders pattern broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which has been supporting on the long-term. This is as far as the current recovery sequence has gone as it brings us to today. The July - August recovery, consolidated within its Ichimoku Cloud but eventually formed the new Support that took it to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back occurred.
The MACD sequences are so far equally similar. Does this mean that BTC can once again find Support on its Ichimoku? And if so is the 1.5 Fibonacci the next target? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BITCOIN The consolidation phase cheat sheetBasically, I've applied this methodology with the cyclical Fibs before but this time I've taken it a step further plotting all consolidation phases within a Bitcoin cycle based on the Fibonacci levels.
Astonishingly, those are very consistent and tend to repeat themselves in each Cycle with high preciseness. As this chart shows on the 1W time-frame, each Cycle has once consolidation phase below the 0.5 Fibonacci level (green region), one above the 0.5 Fibonacci level (blue region) and the last one around the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (yellow region). According to that model, BTC is currently on the 1.5 Fib consolidation phase, which based on the previous two Cycles, is the final accumulation before the ultimate parabolic rally to the peak of the Cycle.
What price can that peak be at? Well this can be answered using the Fibonacci extension levels themselves. In the previous two Cycles, the Cycle Peak was priced at just above the 2.272 Fibonacci extension (measured as 0.0 Fib the bottom of the Cycle and 1.0 Fib the top of the previous Cycle). Oddly enough, this is roughly what the Fib measurements of the last consolidation phase indicate, which marks the peak on its 2.5 Fib extension (0.0 Fib the bottom of the consolidation and 1.0 Fib the top).
Assuming that this pattern will continue to replicate itself as it did in the previous Cycles, we can project the next Cycle peak to roughly be within the 2.272 Fib extension of the prior peak and cycle bottom ($ 210k) and the 2.5 Fib extension of the final consolidation phase ($ 250k).
How accurate do you think this model is? Do you also think that the new cyclical peak will be in the 210 -250k region? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD bullish outlookHello traders, let's take a look at the technical aspect of BTC. BTCUSD was moving in a descending channel for weeks before reaching the low at around 32890.00. BTC surged on Monday and broke out of this falling channel after Tesla announced close to $2 Billion worth of holdings in Bitcoin.
On 8 hour timeframe, we see that it got stopped at a 200 Moving Average. I expect bullish momentum to resume after some little retracement towards the 100 Moving Average.
I will look for long positions with first target towards 50000.
Please support this idea with likes if you find this helpful.
If you have different opinion, please feel free to share in the comment section below.