Bitcoin: The Final Move Before a Crash to $3000It seems that Bitcoin has started forming an ending diagonal, which serves as the final impulsive waves in Elliott Wave Theory but has a corrective 3-3-3-3-3 structure, also known as a rising wedge. This wave will likely mark the end of a cycle pattern that began with Bitcoin’s inception, correcting all the growth achieved so far. A correction of this magnitude has no strict limit, but it will likely end at the lower-degree fourth wave, around $3000 per Bitcoin. This is also where the power line lies according to the volume profile. This scenario will gain more weight if, in the coming days, instead of heading to new highs, we drop below $66,500 again. In that case, I expect a correction to the $59-60K range, followed by the last upward three-wave move toward $80K. From there, at the first signs of a reversal, I believe it will be prudent to focus exclusively on short positions, targeting extremely low levels below $10,000 per Bitcoin.
Bitcointop
Where are we heading for the next cycle?From top to bottom, using log fib extensions:
Cycle 2: 2.272 Fib is the top of 2013
Cycle 3 : 2.272 Fib is the top of 2017
Cycle 4: 1.618 Fib is the top of 2021. Institutions are in since 2017, diminishing returns.
Cycle 5: Will 1.618 or 1.272 fib be the top of 2025? I bet on the 1.618 option.
Max pain will occur before, certainly. But the destination is known, path isn't.
Crypto winter almost over , #BTCUSD to breakout 69k in Nov 2023More data leads to more accurate analysis and forecast. According to my last #bitcoin forecast which was published on tradingview (Link down below) on May 26th 2022, I was expecting a down move to 11.000$ before finding bottom. But more data has prevailed since then that leads me to believe that we have found a bottom and we are aiming for another up (25k - 27k) and down (16k - 18k) and start another #bullrun from february 2023 to breakout the 69k high of 2021. What do you think?
Bitcoin will TOP this year(2021).My thoughts on the current situation.
Bitcoin and the relationship between the bullmarket TOP and HALVING.
In the two previous cycles, the TOP of the entire growth cycle was exactly 820-850 days before the next HALVING.
Taking this into account, theoretically, we should reach TOP in December this year, and then go into
a downward trend and consolidations for the coming years.
It is worth noting that in the previous cycles, after reaching the peak(about 820-830 days before HALVING),
the distribution in the Descending Triangle formation began. In my opinion, it is likely that due to the global crisis,
the top of the current cycle was achieved much faster (64k in March) and currently we are already in distribution phase.
Bitcoin: Pi Cycle Ceiling Model V3This, like my previous two posts, is a model playing with multiplied moving averages. I found that more "spot on" cycle tops were seen when multiplying exponential moving averages, rather than simple moving averages. It appears that the relationship between the length of the moving average and pi is not really present here, as the 100, 200, and 400 day EMA multiplied by pi all correspond to the ceilings for each market cycle (2013, 2017, 2021). One may extrapolate that, if we are amidst a double peak cycle, the bitcoin price respects the 400 day EMA multiplied by pi as a "price ceiling"; And further extrapolation leads me to the idea that the next market cycle may respect the 800 day EMA multiplied by pi as a "price ceiling".
Bitcoin: Alt Alt Pi Cycle Top Based On Diminishing ReturnsUnlike my previous Alternative Pi Cycle Top, I coded the multiplier (the # after close) to be multiplied by pi. Once I added a Pi Multiplier to the same moving averages as previous, I realized it then moved so that the 79 day MA (pi*25) x pi corresponded to the 2014 double peak, and following a 2x to the length of the moving average each market cycle gives you a historically accurate local top sell target.
If you're looking at this, I encourage you to view my previously posted model. This is a slight alteration that seems to make it more accurate. This is pure speculation, and not to be trusted.
Bitcoin price prediction for coming years.
My thoughts on the current situation.
Bitcoin and the relationship between the bullmarket TOP and HALVING.
In the two previous cycles, the TOP of the entire growth cycle was exactly 820-850 days before the next HALVING.
Taking this into account, theoretically, we should reach TOP in December this year, and then go into
a downward trend and consolidations for the coming years.
It is worth noting that in the previous cycles, after reaching the peak(about 820-830 days before HALVING),
the distribution in the Descending Triangle formation began. In my opinion, it is likely that due to the global crisis,
the top of the current cycle was achieved much faster ( 64k in March) and currently we are already in distribution phase.
Taking historical analysis of previous cycles into account, I estimate Bitcoin will find a bottom between $ 16,500 to $ 10,200 over the next 12-18 months.
Bitcoin Potential Wave VHi everyone,
Thank you again for considering reading my idea. Just a disclaimer that I'm not an expert on Elliot Wave Theory but here's what I have in mind.
Let's see the first 4 waves:
Wave I - Initial impulse from March 2020 to May 2020 (161%)
Wave II - Sideways movement from May 2020 to September 2020
Wave III - Huge impulse from September 2020 to April 2021 (535%)
Wave IV - Huge diagonal correction from April 2021 to May 2021 (-53%)
For more zoomed in chart of Wave ABC for Wave IV, please see the updates below.
In my opinion, we have completed the Wave C of Wave IV and we're currently starting Wave 1 of the last and final wave of Wave V for this bull market.
On Elliot Wave Theory, it is a rule that the Wave III is always the biggest impulse compared to Wave I and Wave V. Since Wave III had a huge increase of 535%, we can say that Wave V is LESS than 535%. As for this rule, I am not sure if it's always the case or if it's mostly the case but let's assume that Wave III is bigger than Wave V.
Let's say that from the bottom of Wave IV (30k), we add 535% which gives us 191k. We can say that the top of this bull market would not exceed to 191k.
If we draw a Fib Retracement from the peak of Wave III (64k) and the bottom of Wave IV (30k), we get these levels:
- Level 4.236 at 174k
- Level 3.618 at 153k
- Level 2.618 at 119k
- Level 1.618 at 85k
I think these are the levels that we need to pay attention to in the next few months. We know that a potential top is when we get these euphoria feeling where Bitcoin is pumping hard very fast. Whenever that happens and wherever level that is, we can use the levels above to determine the potential peak.
Thanks for reading. This is not a financial advice.
Bitcoin top only in 2023? or has Bitcoin top at $65k?I think the bull run isn't over, however there is a small probability that the $65K was the top and we are all on the denial phase now.
Remember market act as its own and in most cases acts the opposite of the herd,
- Most is expecting the bull market not to be over
- Most was expecting a blow off top
If $65k was not the top here is my outlook for bitcoin moving forward.
This bull run is fueled buy Institution and we know they move slower then retail investor so that's one reason why the top will take longer then the previous cycles maybe in 2023.
Is Bitcoin Top In?!? 2017 is telling us some secretsThis is a possible scenario.
I enjoy seeing patterns play out over time. I think that the top might be in and we can compare our current position to the same spot in 2018.
I used the bars pattern tool to copy the exact price action from the first wave down after the 2017 top, then pasted it to our current position.
I find it interesting that it even lines up well with my fib retracements of this local swing.
What do you think?
Is the top in?
btc/usd short idea As I've missed the top short on my previous ide a with a few bucks, here's another setup for me.
I'll place my offers on the red area and the stop is 1hr close.
I'll start taking profits on green area but let it flow with 1/3 in case we drop further.
This is still a risky one because the HTF is still bullish, so please manage your risk accordingly.
BTC Market capLooking at BTC market cap we can see that we have reached 200 Billion dollar level and it is exactly the level that we have top out on february 2018. but in price we have some way to go. it is really hard time for shorting bitcoin but i think may be we have topped out in we should see a big big correction or a new bottom below 3100 usd. be cautious.