Trading plan for Bitcoin price for Christmas & New Year holidays🎄 Christmas and New Year's holidays are coming up, and we congratulate you on that!)
We survived, even earned a little, so thank you for that)
Currently, the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price has been stopped on "the verge of a foul", but the holidays will lead to a decrease in business activity and an increase in “manipulative volatility.”
So, to follow the behavior of the OKX:BTCUSDT price, subscribe to this idea!
A big temptation is to “break the stops” of #Bitcoin, which are hiding below $85k, and an even bigger temptation is to close the GAP on the CME BTC chart in the range of $77-78k.
And there are several other options for the development of events by combining the BTC.D and USDT.D indices, but I'm too lazy to write about it yet)
⁉️ But if you are interested in us writing “voluminous reflections”, like at the end of 2022 before the start of super growth with plans for 2023-25, which are working out very well👇
then we need inspiration from you in the form of reactions and comments here and maybe a miracle will happen, the main thing is to believe in it!)
Bitcointrading
BTC/USD Weekly Chart Analysis: Potential Price Scenarios in 2025Overview:
Bitcoin has displayed remarkable strength in the past few months, approaching critical levels in its long-term ascending channel. The current price action reflects bullish momentum, but there are key levels to watch for potential corrections or continuations. Here’s my detailed analysis based on this weekly chart.
Key Observations:
Ascending Channel:
BTC is trading near the upper boundary of a well-established ascending channel, which has historically acted as resistance.
If this boundary is broken with strong volume, the next potential target lies around $116,000.
Structure Levels:
A Weak High at $102,000 indicates the possibility of a short-term pullback before testing the resistance zone.
Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH) signals confirm bullish dominance, but corrections are part of healthy price action.
Moving Averages:
The 50-week and 100-week moving averages continue to slope upward, with price trading well above these levels, signaling a strong bullish trend.
Any retracement could find support at the 50-week MA or the mid-range of the channel.
Support and Resistance Zones:
Resistance: $102,000–$116,000.
Support: $76,000 (Golden Pocket) and $64,000.
Indicators:
RSI is currently overbought at 75, indicating the potential for a cooling-off phase.
MACD shows bullish momentum but hints at overextension as the histogram peaks.
Projected Scenario:
Scenario 1: BTC tests the Weak High at $102,000, faces rejection, and consolidates near the mid-range before attempting to break higher.
Scenario 2: BTC breaks out of the ascending channel, initiating a parabolic move toward $116,000.
Potential Risks:
A failure to hold support at $76,000 could lead to a deeper correction, testing key structural levels like $64,000 and $42,000.
Macro factors such as interest rate decisions or global economic uncertainties could heavily impact sentiment.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin is in a strong bull market phase, but caution is warranted near the upper boundary of the channel. Traders should monitor key levels and volume for confirmation of breakout or rejection. A pullback to the mid-range could provide an excellent buying opportunity for long-term holders.
Would love to hear your thoughts—do you expect a breakout or a correction? Let me know in the comments below!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before making trading decisions.
BTC Trading Thesis SummaryObjective:
Action: Open Long Position
Current Price: $97,600.00
Take Profit (TP): $100,000.00
Stop Loss (SL): $96,500.00
Exit Point: $98,000.00
Confidence Level: 75%
Correlation with BTC: Neutral (0.00)
Trade Strategy:
Entry Point: Initiate a long position at $97,600.00, anticipating upward movement based on current market conditions.
Take Profit ($100,000.00): Targets a significant resistance level, representing strong bullish momentum.
Stop Loss ($96,500.00): Positioned to limit potential losses if the price declines.
Exit Point ($98,000.00): Aiming for partial profit-taking or reassessment of the position to secure gains.
Technical Analysis:
Moving Averages: Upward-trending 50-day and 200-day moving averages indicate sustained bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): Approaching overbought levels, signaling strong buying interest but cautioning against potential short-term pullbacks.
Volume Analysis: Increasing trading volumes on upward movements support the bullish trend and the 75% confidence level.
Risk Management:
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 2.18:1, favoring potential gains over potential losses.
Position Sizing: Limit risk to a small percentage of the portfolio (e.g., 2%) to ensure manageable exposure.
Diversification: Maintain a diversified portfolio to mitigate overall risk.
Fundamental Catalysts:
Institutional Adoption: Growing interest and investment from institutional players enhance BTC’s legitimacy and demand.
Regulatory Developments: Favorable regulations can boost investor confidence, while adverse changes may pose challenges.
Technological Upgrades: Enhancements to the Bitcoin network, such as scalability and security improvements, support long-term value.
Macroeconomic Factors: Economic conditions and monetary policies influence BTC’s appeal as a hedge and alternative investment.
Potential Risks:
Market Volatility: High volatility may trigger stop losses or limit profit potential.
Regulatory Changes: Unfavorable regulations could negatively impact BTC’s price and adoption.
Technological Challenges: Network issues or security vulnerabilities could affect investor confidence.
Competitive Landscape: Emergence of new cryptocurrencies or advancements by competitors may threaten BTC’s dominance.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin presents a promising trading opportunity with a strategy to open a long position at $97,600.00, aiming to take profit at $100,000.00 and limit losses with a stop loss at $96,500.00. With a confidence level of 75%, supported by positive technical indicators and fundamental catalysts, this approach balances potential rewards with effective risk management. Continuous monitoring of market conditions and adjusting the strategy as needed will be essential to capitalize on BTC’s potential upward movement.
BTCUSD: The phenomenal Fib power of +.618.Bitcoin quickly turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.454, MACD = 3285.300, ADX = 32.138) as in a matter of 24 hours it dropped from its 108,000 ATH back to below 100,000. As the price continues to grow, we should start getting used to those 10k violent price swings. Today though, we want to discuss an incredible finding, which we call ' the Fib power of 0.618'. It is this amazing pattern you see where Bitcoin, since its Nov 2022 bottom and subsequent Jan 2023 High, it has systematically targeted every +0.618 Fibonacci extension before pulling back.
1st TP was Fib 1.618, 2nd TP = Fib 2.168, 3rd TP = Fib 3.618. Natually this sequence targets next: 4th TP = Fib 4.618 (112,500), 5th TP = Fib 5.618 (173,500) and finally 6th TP = Fib 6.618 (265,000). Of course this assumes that the trend will follow the same fluid pattern, where the first of the Fib pairs has only a short consolidation (green Rectangle) leading to a fast rise to the second Fib, which has a long consolidation (blue Rectangle). This implies that we're currently inside a short consolidation an in April we should hit 112,500 (5th TP on Fib 5.618).
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BTC / USDT: Bouncing back strong from key support BTC/USDT: Bouncing Back Strong from Key Support
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is showing resilience 💪 as it rebounds from a critical support level, signaling potential bullish momentum ahead 📈. This key level has previously acted as a launchpad for strong upward moves, and the current price action hints at a similar scenario unfolding 🚀.
Key insights:
1. Strong support zone: BTC has bounced off a well-established support area, reinforcing its importance as a demand zone.
2. Momentum shift: Indicators like RSI and MACD are turning upward ⚡, hinting at renewed buyer interest.
3. Volume increase: Early signs of increasing volume suggest that bulls are stepping back into the market 🔥.
Steps to confirm the uptrend:
Watch for a clear 4H or daily candle close above immediate resistance levels 📍.
Monitor trading volume; a surge in volume during upward moves strengthens the bullish case 📊.
Look for higher highs and higher lows on the charts to confirm a trend reversal 📈.
Risk management strategies:
Set a stop-loss below the support level to limit potential losses 🔒.
Scale into positions gradually as bullish confirmation develops 🎯.
Avoid overleveraging; position size should align with your overall trading plan ✅.
Important note:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research (DYOR) 🔍 and trade responsibly.
Bitcoin | First Line of DefenseBitcoin's first line of defense lies within the blue boxes, marking potential areas of interest. However, there are currently no significant demand zones, making it more prudent to wait for upside breakouts on lower timeframes before considering a buyer's position.
Given the uncertainty around the depth of the ongoing correction, it's wise to maintain some cash reserves to adapt to market movements effectively. Patience and careful observation will be key in navigating this phase.
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
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Swing thesis by Titan_Karma (low % of confidence lvl)Investment Thesis
Market Overview:
The cryptocurrency market is currently quiet, with no significant news driving sentiment. This leaves Bitcoin (BTC) dependent on technical and financial indicators for direction. Traders should adopt a cautious approach and stay updated for any developments that could shift momentum.
Market Sentiment Analysis:
Bullish Long-term Sentiment: Over the past month, an increase in long positions indicates confidence among top traders.
Short-term Weakness: 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes reveal a shift towards short positions, signaling bearish sentiment in the immediate term. This mixed outlook suggests the possibility of short-term pullbacks while maintaining an overall positive trajectory.
Technical Analysis:
Daily Chart: Indicators like the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are in overbought territory, hinting at a potential pullback or consolidation. However, the MACD remains positive, showing that bullish momentum is still in play.
Short-term Timeframes (1h & 4h): RSI levels are near neutral, and the 1-hour MACD has turned negative, signaling possible weakness in the short term. Traders should monitor these indicators closely for trend changes.
Fundamental Analysis:
BTC has shown strong upward momentum over the past few months, backed by rising trading volumes and sustained market interest. However, the absence of fresh news and current mixed signals warrant caution, particularly around potential resistance levels.
Risk Management Strategy:
Given the conflicting signals:
Stop-loss: Tighten stops at $104,000 to lock in profits.
Take-profit: Aim for $110,000, based on key resistance levels.
Key Indicators: Watch the RSI and MACD closely for any signs of trend continuation or reversal.
Trade Recommendation:
The recommendation is to HOLD/BUY, focusing on the longer-term bullish trend while managing short-term volatility. Confidence remains moderate at 78%, reflecting mixed sentiment. Adjust stop-loss and take-profit targets based on real-time market developments to optimize risk-reward.
Next BTCUSD buy ZoneI am going to assume that the US dollar is increasing in value until we get to the debt ceiling decision. I am expecting a move up to and perhaps beyond the $103-$104 area.
If this happens I have to assume that the BTCUSD will come tumbling down into my next buy zone. If we don't take out the next weekly level, this will be a great buying opportunity. But some sort of confirmation will be needed.
Bitcoin Breaks Through 102k Liquidity Zone, Girls Late to PartyBitcoin broke through the 102k liquidity zone acting as resistance for the past week. But it did so with low volume signaling some bearish divergence.
Key Considerations:
1. Weak Commitment: Lower volume suggests that there may not be enough buyer commitment to sustain the breakout.
Think of it like showing up to a party with a single girl and as soon as she realizes she's being ogled by a room full of broke bulls, she's gonna be the first one out of the door.
2. Potential Fakeout: A breakout with low volume increases the likelihood of a false breakout, where the price could fall back below the liquidity zone.
3. Lack of Conviction: The price holding above the liquidity zone on lower volume might indicate hesitation.
What to Watch For:
Price Action on Retest: If the price retests the liquidity zone and holds (even with moderate volume), it may still confirm support, but the next move up might be slower or weaker. This is bullish.
Volume Spike: Look for a volume increase in subsequent candles. If volume starts to pick up, it can validate the breakout. A couple more girls arrive to the party just before everyone leaves.
Divergences: Check for divergences in momentum indicators like RSI or MACD, which could signal a potential reversal. We have has a moderate amount at time of posting.
How to Approach It:
Cautious Optimism: Treat the breakout as tentatively bullish but remain cautious until stronger confirmation (e.g., a second retest or a breakout above the next resistance level with higher volume). Holden swears more girls are on the way
Bitcoin BTC price movement forecast by the end of 2024 !📉 On December 5, 2024, set an absolute record for liquidations on the crypto market - $1.1 billion ($820 million longs + $280 million shorts), breaking the record of August 05, 2024, when it was $950 million.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC price dropped to $89-90 thousand, depending on the exchange.
Such a “helicopter” as on the OKX:BTCUSDT chart is launched when all indicators are “overheated” and the market needs to rest, but maintain the trend, i.e. the crypto market's up-trend.
Fear and Greed Index - 71 (greed remains on the market)
Given the fact that altcoins have barely reacted to the fall, we can assume that there will be another wave down.
How do you feel about the option of #Bitcoin price movement $100k 👉 $84-85k 👉 $110k and this is all by the end of 2024 ?)
P.S:
also remember that on 18/12/24 the FOMC meeting is to be held, where the FED rate is expected to be cut by at least -0.25%.
_____________________
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what is next ? 100K and above ?Hello ,
as you can see in the weekly frame the price still in a bullish trend , BUT is the price really going to 100k or the price on the maximum top now ?
the price failed to cross 74k in weekly frame candle , to be sure that is a correction the price should not be under 50k in weekly frame if it does we are going back to 40k and under
to reach 100k and above the price should cross the 74k in the weekly frame candle
according the the chart we still under 70k and no high liquidity.
the price still in correction for now , the decision is yours :)
BITCOIN on weekly timeframehello dear trader and investors
This is my personal opinion about Bitcoin... The price has engulfed the previous high and formed the QM pattern in the weekly time frame...
In my opinion, the next target can be made from the combination of RTM price action and harmonic patterns( ab=cd ) came to this conclusion...
Considering the difficulty of the network and having , I think it is very good to buy bitcoin in several steps..
good luck
BTCUSD: Target range updated to 200,000 - 300,000.Bitcoin is overbought on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 77.125, MACD = 9127.400, ADX = 41.734) but during Bull Cycles, this is by no means a factor to consider turning bearish. Quite the contrary when the 1W RSI in particular crosses above the 70.000 level, Bitcoin turns parabolic. The Top is priced only long after the 1W RSI starts to pull back inside a Channel Down. Bitcoin is now inside a 7 year Channel Up and the current 3-week consolidation phase is the same pattern we saw in Nov-Dec 2020, which broke into a more aggressive rally to the Channel's top. A valid TP range now is 200,000 - 300,000.
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BITCOIN NEWBORN Ver.2Previous maps have factored in BTC's journey when the price was at 25k which fell to 15k.
everything is very precise, but unfortunately, it turns out that the map cannot be published due to problems with language and domicile regulations!
And now, I'm just looking at the equivalent of Bitcoin's current state (Feb 2023) to 2020 Feb, in 1M TF .
It all starts with a rising wedge pattern and there are brekouts and brekdowns within it (it's more of a long rising wedge )
I'm sure February 2020 will happen again. And we are currently in the red candle (1 Feb 2023) at 21.8K as of this note.
and again, I really believe Bitcoin will arrive at 60k-150k.
you can see a rough price range for this movement of Bitcoin.
Has HBAR broken out vs Bitcoin?HBAR looks ready for a major push higher after breaking through major resistance on the weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly.
If it can maintain this strength for the rest of this month, 2025 COULD be a big year!
In the near-term, there should be a pullback as HBAR is pretty stretched on the RSI.
BTCUSD: Is 300k a realistic target?Despite the weekly correction, Bitcoin remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.961, MACD = 5631.400< ADX = 43.561) and even overbought on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 74.750). That is because the market has started the final parabolic rally, the cycle's most aggressive phase, supported by the 1W MA50. It can stay overbought until the top, the end of the cycle. Based on the 1W CCI, we may be in a 3 week consolidation stage before the rally resumes. According to the previous Cycle, this happened a little over the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Taking a +1,895.45% rise from the bottom, we can see that the exact same position is applied on the current Cycle and stage.
Does this mean that we can see $300,000 as this Cycle's top? Technically yes but it goes against Bitcoin's Theory of Diminishing Returns. Of course, this Cycle is different as we are already over the previous Cycle's ATH, while in November 2020 we were exactly on it. This is due to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, which has accelerated its growth, so maybe the capital inflows will extend this Cycle beyond what should have been based on the diminishing returns.
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Bitcoin Breaks $95K Pivot: What’s Next After US Inflation Data? Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) surged past the crucial $95,000 level following the release of US PCE inflation data, which came in at 2.3% YoY—right on target. This event, combined with strong technical signals and institutional interest, paints a compellingly bullish outlook for BTC.
Inflation and Institutional Moves
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data revealed steady inflation at 2.3%, aligning with expectations. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed a 2.8% YoY increase. This steady inflation reading suggests potential stabilization in interest rates, a scenario historically favorable for Bitcoin as investors seek hedges against inflation and currency devaluation.
Additionally, the global landscape for institutional investments in Bitcoin is heating up. Chinese publicly-listed firm SOS recently announced a $50 million investment in BTC, viewing it as a long-term store of value and predicting a $100K milestone. This strategic move signals growing confidence among institutional players, which could drive further price momentum.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin’s current price action supports the bullish narrative. Here’s why:
1. Bullish Engulfing Pattern: CRYPTOCAP:BTC is trading around $95,900, having formed a strong bullish engulfing candle. This pattern often signals a trend reversal or continuation, indicating potential for further gains.
2. Golden Cross Formation: BTC’s chart shows a “Golden Cross,” where the 50-day moving average (MA) crosses above the 200-day MA. Historically, this pattern has preceded major bull runs, suggesting CRYPTOCAP:BTC could reach $150K by the end of the year or shortly after.
3. RSI at 67: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral territory—not overbought nor oversold—providing room for further upward movement. This gives traders and investors confidence to enter or hold positions.
Since May 2024, Bitcoin was trapped in a falling wedge pattern. It recently broke through this structure at the intersection of the 50-day and 200-day MAs.
Outlook: Targeting $150K?
With strong fundamentals—rising institutional adoption and favorable inflation data—combined with powerful technical indicators like the Golden Cross and bullish engulfing patterns, Bitcoin appears poised for a substantial rally. We predict BTC could hit $150K by Christmas or early 2025.
Investors should watch key levels: maintaining support above $95K will be crucial, with near-term resistance at $100K. If CRYPTOCAP:BTC sustains momentum, a breakout above this psychological barrier could trigger a parabolic move.
Final Thoughts
As Bitcoin’s narrative strengthens with macroeconomic and technical factors aligned, now may be an opportune moment for investors. Stay tuned—2024 might end with Bitcoin rewriting crypto history.