BTC updateHello everyone,
If you followed my idea yesterday, you should have been prepared for this.
You knew that if BTC had lost the 45500 level, then we would have broken down.
Unfortunately, this has been painful for many of you. Nevertheless, being prepared should bring you a bit of comfort.
BTC has just confirmed us the worst. With the current monetary policy, risky assets are under pressure due to the spikes in rates and tapering. Nasdaq was one of the worst-hit, and BTC has followed.
Previously I talked about three different scenarios using the Elliott Wave theory:
- 1 Ascending triangle (my preferred count previously)
- 2 Accumulation before the explosion
- 3 Big Flat
I have to update my idea now and confirm the flat. I know many of you will be demoralised, but the good news is that you will be able to buy your favourite crypto cheap and make more gains in the next cycle.
You can see in the chart here presented that if you follow all the counting, it makes sense to believe that the final bottom will likely be at 30600.
The end of the fourth wave of a smaller degree is the 100% extension of May's wave A, and it is in Fibonacci equilibrium with the previous waves.
I am now looking mainly at shorting the market, and I will personally exit most of my cryptos. This is following my strategy and my view of the market.
It doesn't need to be yours.
The main resistance now sits at 45500, and soon there will be a test of it and failing to be reclaimed will be another confirmation of more downside potential.
Just by using the extension target of the rectangle pattern, we have violated the target is 39k. Nevertheless, that will be the end of wave 3 in this downtrend. I will then expect a retest of 45500 and then one more leg down to 30k.
In case the 45500 is reclaimed, then a possible uptrend may be starting, but it will need to be assessed then.
For short term trading, I will always use more traditional tools like resistance and supports similar to the one used in the last few days as they have a better short term directional forecasting potential.
The EW will be there in the background to highlight some of the long-term possibilities.
So going for steps:
BTC has lost the 52 week MA (2 years dynamic support)
- retest of 45500 (52 week MA)
- target 39k
if 39k fail to provide support and BTC do not break above 45500 then will look at 30k.
I am now focusing my trades on the shorting side.
I hope this makes sense to you.
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