Bitcoin BTC price global view for next few monthsOn the #Bitcoin chart, you can see a combination of horizontal and dynamic fibo levels.
It took us a long time to see something new....
But here's our summary:
️ ↪️ right now, the #BTCUSDT price is at a critical point. If buyers manage to keep the price above $57000-57300 until Monday, there will be a chance for a good price increase via the blue route 🟦
↩️ fixing the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price below $57000 is the way for a sharp drop in the price to the $49-50k range. There are still many longers whose positions can be liquidated, and their assets can be taken into "stronger hands"
Which scenario do you prefer: ❤️red or 💙blue?
Because in our opinion, the #BTCUSD price should go into a protracted sideways consolidation for the summer of 2024.
In this consolidation, the large capital that entered the cryptocurrency market through BTC ETFs may start flowing into less liquid altcoins, which could lead to local and selective bull runs.
So, in our opinion, the most important task for the coming months is to track which altcoins or sectors of the crypto market capital is flowing into and buy on corrections.
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Bitcointrading
Bitcoin Dump: 54K next support?54K seems to be the most likely support level on the 4-hour chart for Bitcoin/USD.
After that 52K .
A drop to 48K seems unlikely . But possible.
A reminder that this is the 4-Hour Chart. If you zoom out, you will notice that Bitcoin is not yet in a bear market.
Technical Analysis tools used:
Volume, Ichimoku Clouds, Fibonnaci Retracement, Volume Delta, Support Lines.
The Fibonacci Retracement show the next likely support levels which correlates closely with the (orange) support lines.
Price action below the Ichimoku Cloud signals the continuation of a bearish trend.
The new Volume Delta Indicator shows a divergence of sell volume domination over market price, which leads me to believe a trend reversal is coming soon. (around 52-54k)
up-to-date Fundamental Analysis:
Good news to consider:
Possible ETF unbanning and adoption in China (unconfirmed)
World's largest custodian bank, BNY Mellon reports exposure to BTC ETF
Halvening in effect
First Bitcoin ETF's launched in Asia (Hong Kong)
Bad news to consider:
CEO of Binance sentencing (30. April 24)
Prominent Bitcoin Figures arrested
Government crackdowns in US/UK/EU on centralized elements of the cryptocurrency ecosystem (CEX, Custodial Wallets, etc.).
Asian Bitcoin ETF's flopped due to low volumes on opening day.
Psychological Considerations:
must-reach-100k mentality of the Bitcoin community
Community psychological barrier against centralization and regulation
50k support
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations.
I Tried To Tell Y'all 58K Was In Play- What's Next For Bitcoin?Not to say I told you so, but, yeah, I did tell you all a while back when we broke previous all time highs that the 58K range for Bitcoin was still in play, and guess what happened? We hit it... Well, I didn't post that one on TV, so I may not have told you guys, lol, but it's on my other outlets.
Okay so now that is all out of the way, let's talk about what could possibly happen next. I do not think that just because we hit this level that we will have some kind of V-shaped recovery. Highly doubtful. As a matter of fact, I still believe that we will be heading even further south to the 50K-52K range as I stated in another previous technical analysis post.
Why do I think this? Well, that is where the largest amount of support is sitting. This pump went too high, too fast and is having to correct back down and retest the previous major zone of volume. I mean, it doesn't have to, but it's normal market movements.
Too many in the Bitcoin and crypto space are too short term focused. I know I have been at times, but that is why I am flashing the Daily chart at you is because on the bigger picture, we still have some retracing to do to build a solid market structure before we really go for moon shots. Not only that, the news of government FUD has really shaken up the Bitcoin ETF TradFi crowd and they have been dumping right and left. So downside is not finished by any means and I feel that 50K-52K is still in the cards.
Until next time my trading buddies, trade logically!
Bitcoin BTC price follows a familiar routeCurrently, crypto market users are divided into two camps:
1️⃣ - to the mooon with the first stop at 100k and 2️⃣ - the beginning of a correction to at least 50k.
Two ultra-radical camps that will find 101 reasons why it should be exactly as they "want and expect" and not otherwise.
On the #BTCUSDT chart, we have copied and displayed the fractal of #Bitcoin price behavior for May-October 2020. That is, how the CRYPTOCAP:BTC price behaved before and after the previous halving.
And this scenario is not bad: the #BTCUSD price is entering a prolonged consolidation phase at range $65,000-73,000 during the summer of 2024.
At this time, the capital of large funds will be able to partially and smoothly flow into crypto projects with a smaller capitalization.
What can this process provoke? That's right - the alt-season
Are you intrigued?) We are waiting for 50 likes and at least 10 comments from you, and then we will supplement the idea with the BTC.Dominance, USDT.D charts and the total crypto market capitalization chart which clearly show how this process can look like.
btcThis review was done in Time Monthly and it is only my personal opinion, and it is not the basis for decision
At first glance, according to the past information, and the type of movement of candles, if we are to consider a similar behavior for Bitcoin, a 55% correction and a 77% correction can be considered. But when this movement is done , that the area of 42 to 49 thousand should be broken
BTC short term viewBTC / USDT
After the massive drop of market in 13th april
The market turned to be range market with slightly bearish in short term
However in med - long term i still see it very bullish specially after the halving event that occurred 4 days ago
In the coming days/ weeks we can see BTC is testing 60k zone multiple times with some fakouts here and there
However if BTC able to close weekly above recent ATH we will see market turn strong bullish again
Until that we still in this range …
In this range try to avoid overtrading / fomo / panic selling
Long term trades are fine
Short term trades with strict risk management and stoploss are fine too
Best of wishes
BTCUSD: Bearish on the 1D timeframe but bullish divergence on 4HBitcoin is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.469, MACD = -911.900, ADX = 24.282) but on the 4H timeframe it has posted a bullish divergence on the RSI via a HL trendline, which was present on the last two Lows. Those were not bullish divergencies though as the price was also on HL, which makes today's formation even more bullish. The pattern is a Channel Down so we are now aiming at a new LH on the short term. This was priced previously on the 0.9 Fibonacci level, so our TP = 71,000.
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BTCUSD: 1D MA50 broken after 2 months. Selling isn't over.Bitcoin may be neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 46.271, MACD = 810.300, ADX = 25.259) but it just broke under the 1D MA50 for the first time in more than 2 months (February 6th last contact). In the meantime, it crossed under the HL trendline of the Ascending Triangle, so we have a full-scale technical bearish breakout. The RSI pattern looks very much like the January 12th 1D MA50 bearish breakout.
If Bitcoin closes the 1D candle under it, we will wait for the bottom to be formed on the S1 level, always above the 1D MA100 (which supported on the January 23rd low) and buy (should be a around a week after the Halving) targeting a little over the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (TP = 100,000). That was where the March 14th top was priced.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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BTC Big triangleAfter BTC reach bearish target at por previous analysis, BTC go down a little more to to perform a big triangle pattern.
if this triangle support able to hold bearish, next bullish target at triangle resistance at 70.763
But if this pattern broken down,.. I will make a new analysis.
Good luck
Bitcoin could be closer to the new top then we thinkIf the fear in these market intensify. The new top for 2024 could be behind us. I sure hope I'm wrong and it keeps going up so I make money, But, we are running out of gas, the halving could be a sell the news event. Never forget the most important rule, Always keep some change in case of emergency, to buy the dip. And never be all in forever past the past top.
INDEX:BTCUSD
Bitcoin Counter WickoffEverything is in Graph. if you don't know about Wickoff Strategy, i invite you to DYOR it.
- i will try to explain you how to counter Whales/institutionals as small retails investors
- of course this method can be adjusted with your portofolio, i just made it very simple to make peoples understand how to invest wisely.
- This Chart is based on the Money you don't need for living!
- if you use this method correctly and adapt it to your portofolio, you will always restart a new cycle with more money.
- if you look at the chart closely, you will understand that i didn't use higher points to take profits and keep always 10,000$ in Market, so this chart is based on human mistakes and not much greed.
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- in this method we starts with 10,000$ invest as exemple.
- Take profits 2 Times, keep base investment in market ( because we don't know the real potential Top ).
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- The Second Phase is waiting for the Dip and buying back
- Re-inject Money 3 Times in the Dip and Wait for market recovery phase ( because we don't know the real potential Bottom )
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- if the bottom was a mistake and BTC fall down more.
- just invest slowly what you don't need for living and be patient, BTC is fundamentally poised to go up.
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- This method can be done with 10$ - 100$ - 1000$, no matter money because everything is based % invest and Time.
- Remember that your management is the most important, if you don't manage your money correctly, Tears will come.
"You have to believe that you are the one who creates your success and also that you are the one who creates your mediocrity".
Happy Tr4Ding !
BITCOIN Outlook for Q2 2024Hello everyone,
hope you guys had a great Easter Holiday.
Same as in Q1, I decided to share with you What I Think is the Most likely going to happen with price in Q2 , purely based on current micro¯o economic conditions and indicators, plus what are charts presenting right now.
Before I get to the business, I would like to reflect on my Q1 outlook, mostly because I believe things that were said and thought back then are still relevant today for future outlook (Q2), so I would suggest if you want to understand better, check out this first ↓↓↓
So when the year started, my Base Expectation was: " my Base Expectation is the market can still keep going higher. With occasional time to time not so significant price pullbacks (20-30% should be considered normal in this asset), UNTIL FED decides to START cutting rates.
I guess everyone knows what happened next... We indeed rallied, in matter of fact, to the new ATHs at around 74k. This is impressive to me, considering the market conditions we are at right now and what is possibly coming soon (Q2).
Finally it's time to get back to the business, so let's get to the "prediction" of what Q2 most likely bring upon us.
So, I have to say, I believe that today Bitcoin conditions are harder to read than back in Q1 due to several reasons. One I already mentioned and its Price reaching New ATHs, but there are several others like CPI numbers are still elevated, potential upticks in unemployed numbers, FED balance, FED meetings and the most important - first Interest Rates cutting around the corner.
These conditions make the market harder to read because of the Time Window that it provides for Price to "keep run going higher" before "expectations of reverse". Meaning, that market participants still expect the market to go higher, because there was not Rate Cuts yet, BUT Price already can be elevated enough and with Cuts around the corner process of Market Selling/Reversing may start sooner (being frontrunned) before the official Cut is done. Explained in chart pic. ↓↓↓
And since my Whole Idea is Based on previous time in History when we were in similar market conditions, either times were different (highier IR, highier CPI, price at ATH), I still expect Markets to do the same thing, because I believe that human behavior and psyche related to Markets not changing, so result should be same, until we proved otherwise.
So basically, My Base Expectation for now is that this MAY(June/Q2), MAY be the worst time to become a Buyer/Bull for a prolonged period of time as we potentially already reached our TOP. That is because, as I mentioned in Q1 outlook:
" 6. - !!! New REAL Bullmarket didn't Start until Interest Rates reached their bottom rate !!!
Note, this time can be different due to inflation & elevated price levels, which cause more money in rotation, but IT SHOULD NOT change base line of reverse expectations when the correct time come - 1.FED start cutting, 2.FED stop (is DONE) with cutting, 3.bottom Rate is found "
Aswell note, that the price of asset class (BTC) went down in time with FED balance sheet and even kept going lower due to the "recession scare" even when FED balance sheet started expanding, and that the New Bull market didn't start until FED printed ridiculous amount of money.
Since I believe this perception of the Market is still valid, I will follow it further until I am proved wrong by the chart itself.
= Price will be higher than 74k in July after the first rate cut already occurred.
Hopefully, some of you found this post interesting and helpful in further market navigation.
If YES, please consider liking or sharing this post, it would mean a lot to me. Thanks!
Best regards,
Joe
BTCUSD Gaussian Channel says we're only getting started.Bitcoin is 238 days into green Gaussian Channel territory and highly overbought on the 1W technical outlook (RSI = 81.515, MACD = 8672.400, ADX = 68.211). What would be bad news to buy for any other asset, is actually great for Bitcoin as historically it has seen its biggest gains while deeply overbought. As far as the Gaussian is concerned, every time it has been 238 days past the red zone, the price only rose from there, and as a matter of fact parabolically. This means that we haven't seen the strongest part of this Bull Cycle. In our opinion and based on the HH trendline, $250,000 should be a minimum target for this Cycle.
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It's a Bird? It's a Plane? Nah, it's a Bat.This daily chart has me packing up my things and getting ready to run for the hills!
If we do break down from here and start to form some sort of Bat harmonic formation then I will be asking the age old question, "How low can we go?"
See my previous post below, which I think may end up reinforcing this on the weekly chart.
Could I be wrong? Of course, I mean, I'm a werewolf...I spend most of my time chasing my own tail!
Bark at me!
Owhooooo!
Bitcoin Prediction''Here you can see Elliott wave counting on Bitcoin price...
It can be true it the wave count of primary correction of 4th wave be correct and it Bitcoin be in the 5th wave of primary degree...
If the wave count be wrong, I should say that Bitcoin is in the end of B correction or the first of C wave of primary degree and maybe we see Bitcoin falling down....
Let see what will happen...