BITCOIN HAS TO BREAK LONG TERM TREND by DEC - SQUEEZE APEX DECI have posted this before and I post it again now, just months away from a CRUCIAL point for Bitcoin PA
As with any time scale trading chart, An Apex is a point of reaction. PA usualy reacts BEFORE the Apex is met.
This Giant Apex is in DEC 2025
Every single ATH in the life span of Bitcoin has been rejected by the Arc of Resistance that is overhead.
We can also see how from the ATH in 2011, a trend line was formed that has acted as Support ever since 2012. PA has never dropped below this line.
So, as you can see, PA has been in a diminishing "Sandwich" and Now, we are coming to the Crunch
We can see how the ATH's have been a reducing % Rise ever since this point also.
And you will notice how this number on the chart reduces each time, even though the real value is increasing.
Low to ATH A ( ATH 2011) - 3,465,178%
Low to ATH B ( ATH 2013) - 49,670 %
Low to ATH C ( ATH 2017) - 9,865 %
Low to ATH D ( ATH 2021) - 2,148 %
E is not over yet but coing on current ATH we have
Low to ATH E ( ATH 2025) - 575 %
So, you see the reduction of % rise, held back all along by the ARC Of RESISTANCE
What is interesting, is that since PA has been in the chanel formed in 2011, when comapred to each other, we have been seeing a rise of 20% of the previous rise ( on average )
This closer chart shows you this in more detail
I will ignoew the A - B as thia is out of channel
C-B = 19.6 %
D-C = 21.77 %
Currently E-D = 26.7 %
As you can see, we are currently OVER that average % Rise.
And we are also heading into a tight APEX in Dec.
The expected 200K ATH this cycle will take us out of the pattern, out of the Apex and out of the 20 % average rise of previousl
This really is CRUNCH TIME for Bitcoin
The REALLY interesting thing is, What would be Next ?
This would break the Cycle routine.
We may already have broken that as described in previous charts of mine from years ago
But what IS Certain is that something HAS to happen.
This Cycle ATH will reveal a HUGE amount but we have yto Wait and see what will happen
Bitcointrend
BITCOIN TRENDS with Heiken Ashi candles & Trend indicator ADX Why HEIKEN ASHI Candles ?
Heikin Ashi is a charting technique that can be used to predict future price movements. It is similar to traditional candlestick charts. However, unlike a regular candlestick chart, the Heikin Ashi chart tries to filter out some of the market noise by smoothing out strong price swings to better identify trend movements in the market. ( Source TradingView )
What is ADX ?
The ADX indicator measures trend strength without indicating direction. It is derived from the Positive Directional Movement (+DI) and Negative Directional Movement (-DI):
+DI (Positive Directional Index): Measures upward price movement.
-DI (Negative Directional Index): Measures downward price movement.
ADX Value: Higher values indicate stronger trends, regardless of direction.
( Source TradingView)
To summarise, Heiken Ashi candles filter out Noise and help identify Trend Direction
ADX shows you Trend Strength - NEVER the direction of Trend, using prince index.
OK, so now we ready. The main chart has 2 Vertical Bold lines that will be explained in a Bit but Note where they are on the Chart
The one on the left is near where the Rise in PA turns and becomes a Ranging PA- PA slowed right on that line.
The 2nd line is near the TOP and before the point where PA entered a descending channel that leads us to where we are currently
Note on the chart, the Orange dotted line. This is the BASIS line of the Bollinger bands. This is The Basis line and shows us the Average of PA and, as you can see, we are currently below Average. This shows a Negative Trend.
See how PA is above the basis line in a Positive Trend
Also note in the chart how the lines of candles are Smoother. Each New candle begins on the centre line of the previous and so it becomes a Lot easier to see if PA rises or drops from previous with out the Jagged Noise of traditional candles. - Taller candles show more Strength than previous;
So now to the ADX Chart
See those 2 Dashed Vertical lines and note how the ADX ( YELLOW ) changes direction at those points.
To remind you, the Left one was where BTC PA Slowed down from a Steep Rise, A BULLISH TREND, and turned to Ranging.
The Drop in the ADX at this point showed us that the previous trend was weakening. I remind you, it DOES NOT SHOW TREND DIRECTION even though, in this case, they follow each other.
PA Ranged horizontal on average till we met the Next line, where the previous Trend Strength had reached Neutral ( Note, this is around 20 on the ADX scale )
At the next dashed lime. ADX began rising. Trend strength was increasing.
Initially, we saw BTC PA rising to a New ATH and so, it was easy to assume that the Trend Was Bullish again. However, as we see now, it turns out it was a BEARISH trend.
So how do we know when this is going to end ?
The ORANGE line DI+ ( positive price action ) and the RED DI - ( Negative price action ) can help
These are Price Direction index. When DI + rises, this indicates a positive price action and Visa Versa for DI -
On its own, this is not easy But, for instance, notice how while we been in the descending channel, the DI+ dropped while the DI- has ranged along the 20 line on average.
This indicates a controlled Drop in PA and NOT a Full on Bearish capitulation. There is strength there in PA and this can be seen by the Slow rise of the ADX
On a shorter time scales, over the last 5 days we have seen PA rise in price.
this is reflected more in the DI- dropping ( Negative price action loosing strength ) more than in the DI + remainf horizontal.( NOT gaining Strength )
This could indicate that we are not finished Dropping yet - and yet, at the same time, we see the ADX weakening.
The Bears maybe getting Tired.
If we now return to the Chart
This fatigue we maybe seeing in the Bears could be reflected in the simple fact that we are now Near a long term Rising line of Support ( bold line) and that we are nearer the lower line of the descending channel ( also support) - We are also very near the 2.272 fib extension that has proved to be support previously.
The upper bollinger band is around 90K, which happens to be near Top of current range.
So, we may see a push higher soon but we need to understand that the Longer term still Looks like we will continue in the Range Bound for a Few more weeks.
I hope this helps but be prepared for anything
BITCOIN $BTCUSD | BTC BEARISH TREND & STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVEBITCOIN BITSTAMP:BTCUSD | BTC BEARISH TREND & STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE Mar09'25
Sparros Exchange Trend Table:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Weekly: Bullish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Daily: Bearish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 4H: Bearish
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD 1H: Bearish
Bitcoin Zones:
Bitcoin BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $90,500 - $106,000
Bitcoin DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $84,000 - $90,500
Bitcoin SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $69,000 - $84,000
Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,000, reflecting a bearish trend after reaching its all-time high nearly two months ago. The cryptocurrency has experienced substantial volatility, with the price having previously consolidated in higher ranges.
As of recent developments, the U.S. government has announced a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve," indicating the government’s growing commitment to digital assets. This move is seen as part of a broader strategy to strengthen the U.S.'s position as a leader in the global digital currency space, though no specific amount of Bitcoin has been disclosed for this reserve.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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Important Bitcoin levels. The game of expectations.Today, it is important for Bitcoin to close below 88,000. There is a high probability that today the price will drop to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, thereby partially closing the gap on the daily chart, and the RSI will consolidate below 30 even with a closing price below 88,000. All these factors combined will be sufficient to trigger strong accumulation with a breakdown of the structure, leading to a new all-time high within the next 2-3 weeks.
However, the market doesn’t always play out perfectly. There remains a possibility of a prolonged scenario. In this case, from the current price block (88k - 86k), the price may form a local bounce with a full ABC cycle in the coming days and test the key resistance level (106,200). After that, the price will likely return to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and possibly retest this important level.
A similar scenario occurred last year during a similar phase of prolonged correction, where the price eventually reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level, though not immediately.
BTC Double Top Patterns As we see BINANCE:BTCUSD made a new high that can be a double top formation on chart.
Also when we see the RSI chart it is seeing resistance above 60 and keep falling below 60.
So Looks like a bearish trend and if BINANCE:BTCUSD breaks its 3 months support around 91700 then we can see BINANCE:BTCUSD around 76000.
Lets see!
This post is just my perception and for study purpose only.
As crypto market has high risk of loosing money. Please invest your hard earned money carefully.
I will not be responsible for any loss in the crypto market.
Daily Market Review and Analysis for BTC: January 2, 2025#BTC (1h)
The cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by 2.74% over the last 24 hours, BTC dominance fell by 0.6%.
#Bitcoin continues its local uptrend, which is especially clearly visible on lower timeframes (up to 15 minutes). In particular, the price of the first cryptocurrency continues to periodically rebound from trend liquidity, which indicates that the liquidity pool will soon reach the level of $97,544 and then roll back to the area of $96,200.
This scenario will be relevant if the price consolidates with the body of the hourly candle below $95,924. But as mentioned above, now the most realistic scenario is to take the liquidity price at $97,544.
As for the global scenario, BTC is in a bullish cycle and the primary target in the medium term is the buyers' liquidity level (BSL) at $99,963, where the price is likely to fall for the sellers' liquidity (SSL) withdrawals at $90,500 and $88,722.
Terrifying BTC Macro Resistance TrendlineThis is not to say that I am predicting BTC to crash from here, it could always break this trend and pump into another galaxy. But looking at this perfect trendline, it is hard not to stop and think for a second.
If at this time last year when BTC was around $38,000, what would your thoughts have been on a $100k bull run target?
That being said, the logarithmic trend looks much more promising.
BTC 6 MONTH OUTLOOK- PRE BULL MARKETThis is a composite of quite a few systems, but the screen here has been reduced for ease of reading. The economic sentiment right now is not favorable so a pullback of BTC is very likely. This is not signaling a weakness in crypto, but just the overall uncertainty in investors in ANY market. Look for the BTC pullback end of March early April. Securities and Banking are seeing difficult times. The safest market may be Crypto (ie Bitcoin). It doesn't mean Bitcoin won't have it struggles (It will), but its promise is to safeguard those who hold it from the ever present uncertainty of the BANKING sector which is a whole different topic.
On this chart you will find secondary support/resistance lines here (dashed blue lines). Hard resistance and supports (sold blue lines). The yellow line is a projection that I am seeing for BTC over the next 6-8 months. I do think once we exist the Gann Box that we will be in a full blown BTC Bull market. For now some intermediate tops and bottoms will be seen. Not in a bull market yet, but soon so stack up! I am! Buy Low- Sell High
Any questions/ comments leave them below.
I warrant that the information created and published, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
Trend Direction and Trading Indicator TutorialThe Tenoris Trend Indicator determines support and resistance using a proprietary method that I've not seen in other indicators.
Over the last 10 days a potential gain of 15% on Bitcoin is shown on the chart.
The key is knowing which Red and Green arrows are most likely to indicate the reversal of the price trend from short to long or long to short (red to green or green to red arrows and boxes).
The arrows are used for trade entries and exits and the boxes in relationship to the price of a closed candle are used to predict price direction.
The time frame of the chart is critical for maximizing the accuracy of the indicator.
In general a 7D candle on crypto and a 30 day candle on stocks and a quarterly candle on indexes like the S&P provides the most accurate trend direction.
On Bitcoin a 4H candle chart can be successfully used to determine entires for short term trades lasting a few days. In extensive back testing and live trading a gain of 10% a month or more is consistently possible.
The key to using the indicator is knowing which arrows are the most indicative of a trend change. When a green candle closes above the red boxes it's likely that price is going to go from trending down to up. When a red candle closes below a green box it's likely that price will trend down.
Compared to moving averages, and other directional trend indicators the Tenoris Trend Indicator is superior in detecting trend changes much earlier than other methods of technical analysis commonly used.
BTC Weekly Chart is Showing Major StrengthThe last weekly close and open for BTC have broken the overall weekly structure of consolidation. A weekly close above the support would confirm this. Things are looking good for BTC in the bigger picture. Hold on to your hats, we have a year of volatility coming to us.
Not financial advice.
Do your own DD.
Thanks for looking at the idea.
BTC: Two Likely Scenarios I'm WatchingBitcoin hasn't yet been able to break out above the diagonal resistance that formed after the most recent high.
Until we're able to do a bump-and-run ABOVE this trendline, lower lows seem the most likely until we've found a zone with sufficient buying pressure to take us back upwards. Lower lows and lower highs mean short term bearish, unfortunately.
I discuss the reasoning for these two scenarios in a little more detail, here:
However, this doesn't imply that there won't be decent range trades / swing trades in this area - in fact, there's been incredible opportunities whilst Bitcoin chops around. Follow here to make sure you never miss a moment!
___________________
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin update 5000$ in a rowbtc exactly reacted where the supply area and gave 2000$ in sell side and upside almost gave 3000++ points and also market still running in sell side
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📌 Note :
⨻ Check the live market updates and analysis yourself before buy 📈🔺 or sell 📉🔻
⨺ Am not giving any advisory or signals its just my idea for upgrade my knowledge 📚 in trading
⨹ This is my pre and post market analysis to improve my trading journey 🚀
⨂ Am Not suggesting anyone to buy or sell ❌ am just giving my views 👀
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The next target of the Bitcoin cycle is the historically MVRV?Bitcoin's price is currently overbought locally. Yesterday, the price reacted with a decline of 4.9%. This was the first response, and now it’s important to hold the level of $62,700–$61,800. A breakdown below this level would signal a trend reversal to a downward trend with the first target being the imbalance zone at $52,500–$49,550, as marked on the chart. I would like to see investor support manifest in this imbalance zone, but if I don’t observe sufficient buying volume, I will expect a swift reversal and a breakdown towards the key on-chain level, the MVRV Pricing Bands (-0.5sd). This is a critically important level from which strong Bitcoin trends have historically formed in a broader perspective.
In a positive economic environment, there is a chance of a rebound from the $62,700 support zone, possibly forming a divergence and a potential double top. The reaction of sellers during the bounce from $62,700 will play a significant global role. If the price consolidates above $67,000–$68,500, then we could see a BullRun!
Sep 19, 2024 Short term bitcoin analysisBitcoin is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term, which indicates further development in the same direction. The currency has broken up through resistance at points 61400. This predicts a further rise. In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at points 61400. The currency is assessed as technically positive for the short term.
Bitcoin BTC price is preparing for a “crazy” SeptemberIf we compare the stock market drops at August 05 and September 03, we can say that the crypto market is still holding up very well.
But we shouldn't relax, because there are a lot of events coming up in September that will set the tone for the Autumn:
1️⃣ September 6 - data from the labor market. July 5 and August 5 were extremely volatile downward after the data release. Now the market interprets and considers the most important indicator of the health of the US economy to be not inflation but the number of jobs created. Based on this data, on August 5, the market plunged into a not so pleasant weekend when CRYPTOCAP:BTC went below $50K.
2️⃣11 September - publication of the CPI and inflation data in the United States.
3️⃣18 September - the results of the two-day Fed meeting, the announcement of a rate cut. It's elegant that this day is also a full moon, conspiracy theorists are on the base)
4️⃣20 September - a hat trick - a day when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day. This happens only four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, which can lead to a sharp increase in trading volume and volatility.
🍿 Preparing popcorn and soothing valerian)
And if you look closely, you can see how beautifully OKX:BTCUSDT price moves through white dynamic fibo channels, from border to border.
So use this information to your advantage, with profit!)
Waiting for a BTC Break From the Current DowntrendPatience pays in trading. Sure one can come in really anytime and start trading on the low time frames, but how do you know you are trading in the right direction? This is where zooming out to longer time frames can give you a better outlook on what the market is actually doing.
If you only focus on short term time frames for scalps, you can easily miss the bigger picture and you may actually be fighting against a bigger trend. This is why I always check daily and the 1-4 hour time frames before I go jumping into the 1-5 minute time frames... Yes, I am back trading the 1 minute candle for scalp trades, haha.
Because of this, I am seeing that the current downtrend in Bitcoin could be coming to an end, but I want to be sure before I go and start putting in buy orders. We are seeing a BUY signal from the Logical Trading Indicator PRO, but I want to wait until the price actually breaks above the long period moving average. What may be even better is to wait until the basis line (20 WMA) breaks the long period moving average. That is a clear change in trend.
Waiting for the bigger trend to turn bullish is a better move, in my opinion, than just jumping in and stabbing away at long trades. For now, since the downtrend is still in play, I am currently looking for shorting opportunities until that bigger trend changes to the other direction. We may very possibly see the 50K-52K level again as there are order blocks stacked up in that area where there are buy orders ready to soak up some cheap Bitcoin.
What do you think? Are you bullish or bearish on Bitcoin? Would love to know your thoughts in the comments!
Friday Market Update - $IBIT, $BTC, $DXY and $SOL ForecastHere's a quick update to the video I posted last week showing a final unfilled Gap on the 4-Hour NASDAQ:IBIT likely pushing price down (We're NOT sure yet how this is correlated, other than the BIG money is playing with Options / Futures and now the NASDAQ:IBIT , which makes Bitcoin a Wall Street product now essentially.
My targets on Bitcoin now are $57k and I'm thinking we may even see a 'news driven' selloff to the $50k - GETTEX:52K range into our buy blocks as shown here.
"Show me the charts, I'll tell you the news" is one of my mantras, and with everyone thinking we go higher here, I'm thinking we have one more shakeout to wipe out some longs.
Last week a well-known short posted that he 'gave in and the Bulls Win' showing his $2.5M loss.
Think the games are over? I think not.
So I'm mostly out of the market, holding some SOL and planning to DCA buy lower at levens I mention in the video.
I also dicuss the DXY bounce, Total Market Cap, and why this weekly candle close is important.
Apologies -- the recording stopped when I tried to update one of my alerts, and I have a Labor Day party to finish planning so no time to-record it.
Have a great weekend everyone, and let's see what Tuesday brings when the big Wall Street traders get back from summer vacation and start putting wall-street money to work.
Bitcoin, is the bull run continuing soon?I expect the Bitcoin price to consolidate in the 53,600 - 49,000 zone, after the price is fixed in the zone, I expect to see a price increase and a high probability of breaking the maximum.
If you look at the Online LTH Realized Profit 7D metric, you can see a similar seasonality of the market that was in 2021, in addition to the online metric, I conducted a deeper study and found many arguments that confirm my expectations, there is a low probability that the price will drop below 48,900, I do not expect this level to break through.
Bitcoin Seasonality: GMI Total Liquidity Index CorrelationBitcoin's price action appears to correlate with seasonal trends in global market liquidity, as measured by the GMI Total Liquidity Index. This relationship offers insights into potential Bitcoin price movements throughout the year:
Winter (Blue): Often coincides with tighter liquidity conditions. Bitcoin may experience consolidation or downward pressure during this period.
Spring (Green): Usually marks the beginning of increasing liquidity. Bitcoin tends to show signs of accumulation and the start of upward movements.
Summer (Yellow): Typically represents peak liquidity conditions. Bitcoin often experiences strong bullish trends during this season, with some of the most significant price increases.
Fall (Orange/Brown): Liquidity begins to taper off. Bitcoin may continue its upward trend from summer but at a slower pace, or begin to show signs of distribution.
This pattern suggests that Bitcoin's price movements might be influenced by broader market liquidity cycles. Higher liquidity periods (spring and summer) tend to correlate with stronger Bitcoin performance, while lower liquidity periods (fall and winter) often see more muted or negative price action.
Disclaimer: It's crucial to note that while these patterns are observable, they aren't guaranteed to repeat. Other factors such as regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic events can significantly impact Bitcoin's price, potentially overriding seasonal liquidity trends.
Traders and investors might use this seasonal liquidity perspective as one of many tools for understanding potential Bitcoin market cycles, always in conjunction with other forms of analysis for a comprehensive view.