Trend Direction and Trading Indicator TutorialThe Tenoris Trend Indicator determines support and resistance using a proprietary method that I've not seen in other indicators.
Over the last 10 days a potential gain of 15% on Bitcoin is shown on the chart.
The key is knowing which Red and Green arrows are most likely to indicate the reversal of the price trend from short to long or long to short (red to green or green to red arrows and boxes).
The arrows are used for trade entries and exits and the boxes in relationship to the price of a closed candle are used to predict price direction.
The time frame of the chart is critical for maximizing the accuracy of the indicator.
In general a 7D candle on crypto and a 30 day candle on stocks and a quarterly candle on indexes like the S&P provides the most accurate trend direction.
On Bitcoin a 4H candle chart can be successfully used to determine entires for short term trades lasting a few days. In extensive back testing and live trading a gain of 10% a month or more is consistently possible.
The key to using the indicator is knowing which arrows are the most indicative of a trend change. When a green candle closes above the red boxes it's likely that price is going to go from trending down to up. When a red candle closes below a green box it's likely that price will trend down.
Compared to moving averages, and other directional trend indicators the Tenoris Trend Indicator is superior in detecting trend changes much earlier than other methods of technical analysis commonly used.
Bitcointrend
BTC Weekly Chart is Showing Major StrengthThe last weekly close and open for BTC have broken the overall weekly structure of consolidation. A weekly close above the support would confirm this. Things are looking good for BTC in the bigger picture. Hold on to your hats, we have a year of volatility coming to us.
Not financial advice.
Do your own DD.
Thanks for looking at the idea.
BTC: Two Likely Scenarios I'm WatchingBitcoin hasn't yet been able to break out above the diagonal resistance that formed after the most recent high.
Until we're able to do a bump-and-run ABOVE this trendline, lower lows seem the most likely until we've found a zone with sufficient buying pressure to take us back upwards. Lower lows and lower highs mean short term bearish, unfortunately.
I discuss the reasoning for these two scenarios in a little more detail, here:
However, this doesn't imply that there won't be decent range trades / swing trades in this area - in fact, there's been incredible opportunities whilst Bitcoin chops around. Follow here to make sure you never miss a moment!
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bitcoin update 5000$ in a rowbtc exactly reacted where the supply area and gave 2000$ in sell side and upside almost gave 3000++ points and also market still running in sell side
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📌 Note :
⨻ Check the live market updates and analysis yourself before buy 📈🔺 or sell 📉🔻
⨺ Am not giving any advisory or signals its just my idea for upgrade my knowledge 📚 in trading
⨹ This is my pre and post market analysis to improve my trading journey 🚀
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The next target of the Bitcoin cycle is the historically MVRV?Bitcoin's price is currently overbought locally. Yesterday, the price reacted with a decline of 4.9%. This was the first response, and now it’s important to hold the level of $62,700–$61,800. A breakdown below this level would signal a trend reversal to a downward trend with the first target being the imbalance zone at $52,500–$49,550, as marked on the chart. I would like to see investor support manifest in this imbalance zone, but if I don’t observe sufficient buying volume, I will expect a swift reversal and a breakdown towards the key on-chain level, the MVRV Pricing Bands (-0.5sd). This is a critically important level from which strong Bitcoin trends have historically formed in a broader perspective.
In a positive economic environment, there is a chance of a rebound from the $62,700 support zone, possibly forming a divergence and a potential double top. The reaction of sellers during the bounce from $62,700 will play a significant global role. If the price consolidates above $67,000–$68,500, then we could see a BullRun!
Sep 19, 2024 Short term bitcoin analysisBitcoin is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term, which indicates further development in the same direction. The currency has broken up through resistance at points 61400. This predicts a further rise. In case of negative reactions, there will now be support at points 61400. The currency is assessed as technically positive for the short term.
Bitcoin BTC price is preparing for a “crazy” SeptemberIf we compare the stock market drops at August 05 and September 03, we can say that the crypto market is still holding up very well.
But we shouldn't relax, because there are a lot of events coming up in September that will set the tone for the Autumn:
1️⃣ September 6 - data from the labor market. July 5 and August 5 were extremely volatile downward after the data release. Now the market interprets and considers the most important indicator of the health of the US economy to be not inflation but the number of jobs created. Based on this data, on August 5, the market plunged into a not so pleasant weekend when CRYPTOCAP:BTC went below $50K.
2️⃣11 September - publication of the CPI and inflation data in the United States.
3️⃣18 September - the results of the two-day Fed meeting, the announcement of a rate cut. It's elegant that this day is also a full moon, conspiracy theorists are on the base)
4️⃣20 September - a hat trick - a day when stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options expire on the same day. This happens only four times a year - on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December, which can lead to a sharp increase in trading volume and volatility.
🍿 Preparing popcorn and soothing valerian)
And if you look closely, you can see how beautifully OKX:BTCUSDT price moves through white dynamic fibo channels, from border to border.
So use this information to your advantage, with profit!)
Waiting for a BTC Break From the Current DowntrendPatience pays in trading. Sure one can come in really anytime and start trading on the low time frames, but how do you know you are trading in the right direction? This is where zooming out to longer time frames can give you a better outlook on what the market is actually doing.
If you only focus on short term time frames for scalps, you can easily miss the bigger picture and you may actually be fighting against a bigger trend. This is why I always check daily and the 1-4 hour time frames before I go jumping into the 1-5 minute time frames... Yes, I am back trading the 1 minute candle for scalp trades, haha.
Because of this, I am seeing that the current downtrend in Bitcoin could be coming to an end, but I want to be sure before I go and start putting in buy orders. We are seeing a BUY signal from the Logical Trading Indicator PRO, but I want to wait until the price actually breaks above the long period moving average. What may be even better is to wait until the basis line (20 WMA) breaks the long period moving average. That is a clear change in trend.
Waiting for the bigger trend to turn bullish is a better move, in my opinion, than just jumping in and stabbing away at long trades. For now, since the downtrend is still in play, I am currently looking for shorting opportunities until that bigger trend changes to the other direction. We may very possibly see the 50K-52K level again as there are order blocks stacked up in that area where there are buy orders ready to soak up some cheap Bitcoin.
What do you think? Are you bullish or bearish on Bitcoin? Would love to know your thoughts in the comments!
Friday Market Update - $IBIT, $BTC, $DXY and $SOL ForecastHere's a quick update to the video I posted last week showing a final unfilled Gap on the 4-Hour NASDAQ:IBIT likely pushing price down (We're NOT sure yet how this is correlated, other than the BIG money is playing with Options / Futures and now the NASDAQ:IBIT , which makes Bitcoin a Wall Street product now essentially.
My targets on Bitcoin now are $57k and I'm thinking we may even see a 'news driven' selloff to the $50k - GETTEX:52K range into our buy blocks as shown here.
"Show me the charts, I'll tell you the news" is one of my mantras, and with everyone thinking we go higher here, I'm thinking we have one more shakeout to wipe out some longs.
Last week a well-known short posted that he 'gave in and the Bulls Win' showing his $2.5M loss.
Think the games are over? I think not.
So I'm mostly out of the market, holding some SOL and planning to DCA buy lower at levens I mention in the video.
I also dicuss the DXY bounce, Total Market Cap, and why this weekly candle close is important.
Apologies -- the recording stopped when I tried to update one of my alerts, and I have a Labor Day party to finish planning so no time to-record it.
Have a great weekend everyone, and let's see what Tuesday brings when the big Wall Street traders get back from summer vacation and start putting wall-street money to work.
Bitcoin, is the bull run continuing soon?I expect the Bitcoin price to consolidate in the 53,600 - 49,000 zone, after the price is fixed in the zone, I expect to see a price increase and a high probability of breaking the maximum.
If you look at the Online LTH Realized Profit 7D metric, you can see a similar seasonality of the market that was in 2021, in addition to the online metric, I conducted a deeper study and found many arguments that confirm my expectations, there is a low probability that the price will drop below 48,900, I do not expect this level to break through.
BITCOIN ( LONG ) ( 4H )BITCOIN
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price is under bullish pressure until trade above turning level .
TURNING LEVEL : the price of turning level around 66,400 , indicates the price trade above this level reach a resistance level , but if breaking this level reach a support level .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : around 69,648 , for reach this level will be stabilizing above turning level .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 71,685 , for reach this level the price will stabilizing above resistance level (1)
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : support level at 63,345 , for reach this level will be breaking and stabilizing below turning level .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : support level at 59,299, for reach this level will be breaking by open 4h candle below support level (1) .
CORRECTIVE LEVEL : the price retest before rising at 66,400 .
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 69,648, 71,685 .
SUPPORT LEVEL ; 63,345 , 59,299 .
Bitcoin Seasonality: GMI Total Liquidity Index CorrelationBitcoin's price action appears to correlate with seasonal trends in global market liquidity, as measured by the GMI Total Liquidity Index. This relationship offers insights into potential Bitcoin price movements throughout the year:
Winter (Blue): Often coincides with tighter liquidity conditions. Bitcoin may experience consolidation or downward pressure during this period.
Spring (Green): Usually marks the beginning of increasing liquidity. Bitcoin tends to show signs of accumulation and the start of upward movements.
Summer (Yellow): Typically represents peak liquidity conditions. Bitcoin often experiences strong bullish trends during this season, with some of the most significant price increases.
Fall (Orange/Brown): Liquidity begins to taper off. Bitcoin may continue its upward trend from summer but at a slower pace, or begin to show signs of distribution.
This pattern suggests that Bitcoin's price movements might be influenced by broader market liquidity cycles. Higher liquidity periods (spring and summer) tend to correlate with stronger Bitcoin performance, while lower liquidity periods (fall and winter) often see more muted or negative price action.
Disclaimer: It's crucial to note that while these patterns are observable, they aren't guaranteed to repeat. Other factors such as regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic events can significantly impact Bitcoin's price, potentially overriding seasonal liquidity trends.
Traders and investors might use this seasonal liquidity perspective as one of many tools for understanding potential Bitcoin market cycles, always in conjunction with other forms of analysis for a comprehensive view.
BITCOIN WILL FALLlast night the BTC broke the area of validation.Breaking such a strong trend line indicates that the marker will be fallen to a nother demand.so we will able to buy at around first demand around area 67000 then we have to see the reaction around that area .If its a corrective one we will sell again in premium, if it rejects hard, we will buy btc at cheap price.that is the BTC plan
Price Psychology and Game TheoryMarkets move in cycles and based on game theory . Everyone is risk averse and everyone jumps in when it appears "risk free". This is how prices would be bid up.
Stocks work like auction .
During Bull runs -> Highest payer - bids up the prices and the averages increase.
During Bears -> it's a fire sale. BUYER has an upper hand and takes the lower prices available.
It's human nature...
Game theory states you buy whilst you can else you will be left behind.
during "ATH" prices fly because prices are relative . Where the driver is the credit condition cycle (loose is good) and ofcourse ETFs.
How Will Crypto Prices Shift Next? BTCUSDThis week, we bring you a roundup of significant events in the cryptocurrency world. Last week’s anticipation of US inflation data causing volatility was realized, pushing Bitcoin up by 10% to $67,000. With such movements in the backdrop, what can investors expect in the coming week? COINBASE:BTCUSD
A Bitcoin Fib-Time Based Cycle ConceptHere we look at a quirky emoji infographic showcasing one of five potential Bitcoin cycle concepts. Using trend-based Fibonacci Time Extensions, I've drawn them since the inception of Bitcoin's first impulse rally from 2009 to its 2013 all-time high. These are then projected sequentially four times to 2025. While it seems simple, and not perfect, it appears to be quite effective and has not been invalidated to date.
Importantly, this is not a price prediction or estimation, nor does it offer an overall bearish or bullish take. Although the outlook seems bullish, cycles can play out over years, and we may not have seen Bitcoin's final cycle just yet. This is why it's the first of five concepts (long & short Term) I'll explore and adapt alternatives in the coming weeks and months.
This merely presents a conceptual analysis of Bitcoin's time and cycles, highlighting key pivotal points worth watching. Timing can be just as crucial as managing risk. Having a plan to correlate these factors allows you to spend less time watching charts and more time enjoying whatever you want.
Key Takeaways:
With a 1-2 weeks variance, each fib level (signpost) approximately triggers the next phase. It is within that phase expect the noted legend and take that mindset.
Each fib range marks 1456 days with 728 being the halfway point of each sequence. Note that 0.5 is not an actual fib level.
Once a cycle of phases is completed, rise and repeat.
We just passed the Halfway point in early Nov 2023.
This current cycle is projected to end in Nov 2025.
This is purely a concept and not financial advice. I apologise for the resolution. A screenshot can be viewed here:
Enjoy!