Swing Trading BitcoinBitcoin has formed an ascending triangle within a rising channel on the hourly charts. The rising channel on its own gives me reason to expect a breakdown to the 61.8% or 50% retracement levels but the presence of the established ascending triangle has made this consolidation interesting. The development of this bullish signal leads me to believe that their is a sliver of hope for another breakout but this will depend entirely on a large influx of trading volume when the alleged breakout occurs.
A false breakout has already taken place on 1 November which makes identifying the ascending triangle that much more difficult to properly recognize. If a low-volume breakout occurs then I believe Bitcoin's value will meet significant resistance at the 100% retracement level -- forming a double top "M" -- and potentially see a shift back to prior retracement levels as suggested in the first paragraph. However, if a high-volume breakout occurs and Bitcoin's value is able to break through the $36,000 USD ceiling, and out of the rising channel altogether, then we could see massive gains as high as the $40,000 level before any significant resistance is met.
As always, traders should be weary of any micro or macroeconomic factors that may come into play as this can both fuel and steal momentum. I am very interested in seeing how this plays out but I am not so optimistic that I would trade without an established stop-loss in place nor insert myself in the trade prematurely.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
