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BITCOIN vs EURUSD parabolas for the ages"Bitcoin is ponzi scheme", "Can't you see it is parabolic and dangerous?", "The bubble will soon burst". These are only a few of the common phrases that Bitcoin (and crypto in general) skeptics use to add value to their claims that BTCUSD will not last. Especially its parabolic nature. Well what if I tell you that the world's most popular financial asset (EURUSD) in the world's biggest market (Forex) has also been parabolic for decades? I will not go into much detail on this short (and different than usual) study as the charts are quite self-explanatory. It is a simple illustrative comparison between BTCUSD's 10 year parabola and EURUSD's 50 year parabola. I believe that the similarities on the basic structure are obvious. Naturally EURUSD's is on the 1M chart as its is a pair (with ECU used before 1999 and a basket of major European currencies for calculations) long established in the market while BTCUSD's had to be on the 1W chart as it is a much 'younger' pair but its digital nature allowed it to grow on a much faster pace. So in conclusion I will ask you this: Do you still think BTCUSD parabolic structure makes it a Ponzi Scheme and a Bubble? Let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
BNC:BLX
by TradingShot
65
BITCOIN The Halving Percentile and why $13000 is possible!I received a lot of enthusiasm by the community with my latest series of Fibonacci cycles and thought to go this a step further and plot & compare Bitcoin's current (2018-2020) and former (2014-2016) cycle before the two Halving events (2nd and 3rd). The goal is to determine which phase of the Cycle we are now based on the pre-Halving price action of the previous BTC Cycle and what levels we will be at around the Halving. ** Making the Cycles ** Each Cycle starts from the previous peak (All Time High then) and ends on the Halving. As a result the 2014-2016 Cycle (Cycle A for our convenience) extends from November 2013 to June 2016, while the 2018-2020 Cycle (Cycle B for our convenience) extends from December 2017 to May 2020. As with my previous studies, I am using the Fibonacci log scale both on the horizontal (time) and the vertical (price) axis (with the top and bottom on 1 and 0 Fibonacci values respectively). ** Where are we now ** Despite some divergences (most notable of which was the April-June 2019 extension), we see that the two cycles have a similar price action. In particular as far as the most recent price action is concerned, we can see that the past 4 months (of Cycle B) were traded within the 0.382 - 0.618 on the vertical axis and 0.786 and 0.92 on the horizontal. Similarly Cycle A traded within those respective values and those phases are marked with the purple circle. ** The Halving Percentile and $13000 ** Now let's get to the essence of this study which is determining the price 2 months before and after the Halving. In Cycle A we see that after the former phase was concluded on the 0.92 (horizontal) Fibonacci, BTCUSD rose aggressively to the 0.786 (vertical) right before the Halving, only to pull back to the 0.618 the weeks after. This phase is displayed by the red Rectangle. If the same sequence is repeated then we may have a pre Halving peak at $13000 followed by a pull back to $10000 the weeks that will follow! Now we all know that this is just a projection but we've witnessed first hand that Bitcoin has a remarkable consistency at repeating its cyclical behavior. A striking example is the idea below on the "Golden 51%-49% Ratio" that received a warmed acceptance by the community: Do think we will see a repeat of the 2nd Halving and rise to $13000 or have a different value in mind? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
60
ETHEREUM is a 2nd chance for those who missed out on BITCOINI have been into ETHUSD for a very long time and was always interested at the fundamental similarities with BTCUSD. I always thought that Ethereum was repeating Bitcoin's first Cycle and even published this study: I am not going to go into much detail on this analysis. The candle action resemblance of ETH with BTC's first cycle is striking. I am gonna leave this to you. Do you think ETH is another opportunity for those who missed investing on BTC's early years? Let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
KRAKEN:ETHUSDLong
by TradingShot
124
BITCOIN Break out time for the Triangle. Buy or Sell?The Descending Triangle on 4H is testing the 8900 Support that was made right after Saturday's 10500 peak. At the same time the Triangle is just below the Lower High trend line with no room for extension so a break out will come either way. What are the scenarios? * If the Triangle breaks to the upside, I am expecting a 0.618 Fibonacci rebound before a -12% decline to 8700. This is synthesized after the RSI pattern from early - mid October which is similar with the Triangle's. A 0.618 pull back resulted in to a -12.35% decline to the 7330 bottom. * If the Triangle breaks to the downside then the short term target should be the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (from the 10500 top) at 8550 and after another pull back the 0.786 retracement level at 8000. Remember this is a short term projection and Bitcoin is exposed to a high degree of volatility on such time frames, so manage the risk in accordance to your account size and margin.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
14
BITCOIN Crunch time for the Triangle. Which levels to watch.Another short term pattern on Bitcoin. This time the chart is self explanatory. The 1W Descending Triangle has been following a Lower High rejection pattern on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Only one time this level wasn't reached but still the 9100 1D Support held and didn't break the sequence. Proof is that on the next bottom the 0.786 retrace was easily reached. This gives the impression that on the medium term at least, until 9100 breaks, BTC is bullish. But what about the shorter term right? Well as the title says we are on a critical turn. If the last low (9800) breaks then the 0.786 Fib pattern is maintained and we should be expecting a new Lower High (below 11000). If 11000 breaks, then this sequence is invalidated and we turn bullish. Practically the W Descending Triangle breaks into bullish territory again and should look to fill the 0.786 Lower Highs. Where do you think this fierce consolidation will lead us to? Fill the comments section with your charts!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
21
How many BTC will it take to buy 1 ounce of Gold in the future?With both Bitcoin and Gold rising aggressively over the past few weeks, I thought it would be both useful and interesting to make a quick analysis of the relationship between the physical store of value (Gold) and the digital store of value (Bitcoin). The GOLD/BITCOIN ratio started off in huge favor of Gold as Bitcoin was still in its early stages requiring vast amounts of digital currency for 1 ounce of Gold. The relationship quickly reversed and in less than 7 years turned in favor of BTC. We can easily claim that we have a new King of Store of Value in town! Naturally the rate of growth of the cycles decelerates while the duration of each cycle (lower high to lower high) is extended as Bitcoin is achieving maturity. Based on rough estimates, the angle sequence of the Lower Low legs within the parabolic curve places the next target at 0.02. What do you think? How many BTC would it take to buy 1 ounce of Gold in the future?
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TradingShot
9
BITCOIN's first red 1W candle! Is this all that bad?Last week Bitcoin closed its first bearish 1W candle (-7.32%) since April 21 (-2.82%), which was the strongest red candle since February 24 (marginally as this one was at -7.34%, the next one was at December 2 at -17.91%). So how bad can this be for BTC? A quick answer is not bad at all! Such a formation doesn't hurt Bitcoin's bullish chances, in fact it enhances them. How is that so? Well during the start of the previous 2 bull cycles (2015 and 2012) the price action also delivered a big bearish 1W candle following the break out from the 1W MA50. This candle effectively put a stop to the parabolic rise on both occasions. What followed this candle was consolidation in the form of a Triangle pattern that lasted 4 - 6 months before giving way to a new parabolic rise. Assuming BTCUSD is following a similar pattern, we may have at least a 4 month consolidation ahead of us. However we've seen already that the start of the current bull market has been more aggressive to a fair extent compared to the previous ones. We'll see if the price moves as aggressively in the coming weeks. What this analysis shows is that Bitcoin long term investors have no reason whatsoever to worry about as they have another bullish sign to feel comfortable about. The 4 week close above the MA50. Closing above the MA50 for four straight weeks has been one of the strongest signals that the new bull cycle has started. The MA50 has since supported the new bull run and was only broked deep into the bear markets that followed. I am confident we have a similar case in our hands. I am confident we have a similar case in our hands. Are you? Related material:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
35
BITCOIN to $13500 by July? This pattern shows it is possible!Before claiming that it is pointless comparing Bitcoin to Gold take look at the charts below: On the first chart, the $9000 mark has been hit purely based on a signal given by the similarities of Bitcoin's price action after its bottom to Gold's respective pattern and the buy signal it gave after the +33.50% bounce. See how smoothly Bitcoin's price action followed the projected pattern. On the second chart, see how weel the Golden Cross signaled the rise from $5500 to $8500. So coming to today. BTC is close to reaching its 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from its All Time High (ATH). When Gold approached the 0.382 level, it consolidated, and then skyrocketed to the 0.618 Fibonacci in 490 days. That's +0.26% on the 1862 days it took from the bottom to just below 0.382. If we apply the same rate on Bitcoin's 161 day's (bottom to just below 0.382), the projection puts $13500 in 42 days! Again I need to point out the obvious (for the record) on the different time frames as I have done on every BTC - Gold comparison to avoid comments that fail to see the fundamental point (viewing Bitcoin as a long term investment) behind such comparisons: "The different time frames (BTC on 1D/ Gold on 1W) shouldn't affect the conclusions derived as Bitcoin's life span is far shorter than Gold which has been used as a store of value for centuries. Moreover Bitcoin has been moving at a much faster pace since its invention, so the market psychology, dynamics etc have adapted to a much shorter time frame." How accurate do you think such a comparison can be? I welcome all opinions in the comments section! Like and subscribe if you enjoy the content!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
43
BITCOIN Break down analysis. See which levels to watch!Bitcoin has been very volatile lately after the parabolic rise made a stop. 4H is trading on an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and its neckline has just been marginally crossed. This is an early bearish signal as it brings BTC face to face with a pivotal Support, the 7600 level. This is were many major Support levels cross paths creating a strong Support Zone. If breached expect to test the 6870 - 7000 1D Support soon. Useful related material:
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
27
BITCOIN broke above the accumulation curve! See how to trade it!Bitcoin broke through the final MA barrier (1W MA100) and even crossed over the Historical Parabolic Accumulation Curve. This is a very significant development as it this curve has been used historically as a strong buy zone during the distribution phase before every logarithmic bull run. Doesn't this mean that the new bull market will be even more aggressive than we thought? Maybe. Let's look at the possibilities. During the recent bear market BTC traded on Lower Highs before the final crash in November 2018. Those Lower Highs where contained below a Resisting Curve. There is always the possibility that this Curve will extend into the new Bull Market also providing Resistance. The very same Resisting Curve was present during the 2014 - 2016 cycle. Basically Bitcoin seems to be "attacking" those Lower High levels now, which act as resistances and may provide bull backs that I will buy. The current supply zone is within 5000 - 6000 now. So now, what happened last time the price broke the Parabolic Accumulation Curve? 1. In November 2015 it broke it, extended to +155% and immediately was rejected back to the Accumulation Curve, testing its Support. 2. In June 2017 it broke it, extended +230% and was rejected to the top of the Accumulation Curve where it found Support and went on a new relentless rally to the 19700 All Time Highs. If those patterns are repeated this is how the present situation may look like before the rally continues: Which ever scenario prevails one thing is for sure. BTC is back to its extreme bullish behavior on a logarithmic scale and those who bought near the 3150 bottom, against the popular (then) bearish sentiment, don't regret it. The signs for buying in the 3000 region where too many: One of those were the resemblences with Gold's bottom pattern. The perfect long term BUY SIGNAL given back in February . See how beautifully it follows the bullish arrow, as Gold did: The Golden Cross again with references to Gold. Fairly obvious too: The Inverse Fractal was another one: ... and so was the first bullish month after the bottom: The question you should be asking yourselves is this: "Am I willing to miss the chance again?". The new bull market has started, still has enormous possibilities and new Highs to make: What do you think? Are we still too early in the new bull cycle? Is this still a very low price to but Bitcoin? As usual let me know in the comments section!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
60
BITCOIN's Final Barrier: MA100. Are we going to 4500 or 10000?Well the title says everything so I might as well make this analysis a short one. BTCUSD is rising aggressively having almost filled the Gap from November 2018, when the final big drop took place. It is now about to test the MA100 (black) on the weekly chart, which is essentially the final bearish barrier before it starts rising and never look back. If the MA100 breaks, BTC will most likely wave the 3000 - 4000 level and MA200 good bye for good and eye $10000 by the end of the year . If rejected on the other hand it will most likely seek support on the 1W MA20 (orange). This pull back is projected within 4200 - 4500, giving one last good buy entry before the 10000 mark. I need to make very clear that in all of Bitcoin's recovery phases, the MA20 on weekly has been revisited at least once before the new bull market officially began (as seen below): So what do you think? Do you expect the MA100 to reject the price and give those late to the party a final chance to buy? Or we are on a journey straight to 10000? Let me know in the comments section! Related material:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
49
GOLD to BTC: "Don't miss this bull, we're just getting started!"Comparing Bitcoin to Gold?? That can't give you any meaningful trade indication can it? Well first of all look at the perfect buy signal it gave back in December, which I posted in February, on that +33.50% bounce from the low. Right when everyone was wondering where the bottom was, "Should I buy?", "Is this going to $1000?", "Buying on a bear market, that's crazy!": Now that I've got your attention let's see where we are at today. We've talked about the Golden Cross before. I even compared the Bitcoin's 2015 Golden Cross with the one that just took place: It is obvious that Bitcoin is trading on an important crossroad with various conflicting short term (because long term it is as good of an investment as any) signals. What is also obvious though, is that if Bitcoin continues to follow Gold's early 2000s price action, and more particularly its Golden Cross, then it will continue to aggressively rise towards new All Time Highs without any last pull back as it did in 2015. How likely that is to happen? Based on BTCUSD's historic volatility and parabolic growth curve, less likely. Various models and indicators that have worked so far in the past (like the one shown below) will be rendered useless in that scenario: ** Two important elements to point out here, as I did mention on the previous BTC - Gold comparison: 1. the different time frames (BTC on 1D/ Gold on 1W). This shouldn't affect the conclusions derived as Bitcoin's life span is far shorter than Gold which has been used as a store of value for centuries. Moreover Bitcoin has been moving at a much faster pace since its invention, so the market psychology, dynamics etc have adapted to a much shorter time frame. 2. Gold strong lift-off was backed by the launch of its ETF in 2003. We may not be far away from a similar situation on Bitcoin . What I want to highlight though with this comparison is the importance to view Bitcoin as a long term investment . To buy when the demand pressure is clear, accumulate, scale and hold for the long term. The time will and has worked so far in favor of BTC just like it has done with Gold. Like Gold, Bitcoin (which is commonly referred to as the Digital Gold) displays similar market bias and the trading psychology is strongly linked. As we emphatically saw the +33.50% bounce buy signal was already confirmed so the behavioral pattern of Bitcoin's 2018/2019 cycle so far is quite similar to Gold's 80s/ 90s cycle. Gold gave investors many similar buy signals throughout 1999 - 2003 at the end of its last bear cycle, just as Bitcoin is giving since last December. Investors who ignored those and failed to buy Gold during the late 90s have missed a great opportunity, which has never come back. Investor psychology during market cycle's can be identical throughout very different financial assets. Are you willing to be like those investors who bypassed a once in a lifetime opportunity on Gold? Do you think Bitcoin will follow Gold's example? Let me know on the comments section! Complementary material:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
95
Bitcoin Cross is about to happen! See how to trade the pattern!The 1D MA50/ MA200 Cross (Golden Cross) is about to take place and you are still wondering how to trade it? Well the last time that happened in July 2015 following the previous bear cycle's bottom, Bitcoin pulled back by around -35%. Then the price rebounded towards a Death Cross (1D MA200/ MA50) that made it consolidate before a new (and final) Golden Cross that pushed BTC to new highs. The Distance between the 1st Golden Cross and the Death Cross was around 62 days and the (D) between the Death Cross and the 2nd Golden Cross 42 days. I have tried to plot the same pattern into today's chart. The conclusion is yours! *Bonus the Ichimoku Cloud which plots a path ahead of the Crosses! It never hurts to look at related material: The MA cross on the 1W chart The pull back explained by the RSI
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingShot
92
BITCOIN Staging the final phase before the bull marketDespite the fact that Bitcoin has (most likely) reached a bottom, the bear market hasn't officially ended. Although traders call the current phase the "Accumulation/ Distribution" stage, it is still an extension, even though the final one, of the bear market. So where does the confirmation of the new bull market comes? I tried to pinpoint this using the Mayer Multiple and the RSI. The Mayer Multiple is trading between 0.50 and 1.05 and is approaching the first break out from that range. I have timed this around 01 July 2019 with the final break out that will never enter this range again estimated around 07 October 2019. The RSI is currently testing 42.500 and should attempt a strong break out around 03 June 2019 and a test of that level as a support around 16 Sept 2019. If it rebounds then we have the final buy confirmation before the Bull Market begins. These 4 buy signals combined make a Buy Zone of 03 June - 07 ctober 2019. Interestingly enough that is where the MMAR completes its bearish zone. My short term perspective:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
11
Bitcoin's Fibonacci Channel and the Band Shift to 100kBTC's last bull market can be adequately broken down using the Fibonacci Channel as a Phase Marker. During 2015 the 0 - 0.236 Fibonacci band was used as a Support. Similarly in 2016 the 0.236 - 0.5 was the Transition Phase from the Bottom to the start of the new Bull Market, leading to then Bullish Band (0.5 - 0.786). As Bitcoin's historic price action has shown, every such bull market peaks on a Parabolic move (0.786 - 1.414). Assuming that the 420 day bear cycle has come to an end on a near -85% price loss, then the support band has moved higher by 0.5 Fibonacci points. This should technically shift the other bands higher by a proportional rate (if all fibonacci levels were illustrated on the chart, it would be hard to read). What's fascinating is where this sequence places the next Parabolic Band. That's within the 1.618 - 2 levels, which on rough estimates translates in a 100000 - 1500000 valuation on the next peak. By all means this is an analysis based on that specific set of technical tools. Any attempt to tackle this with other technical evidence on the comments section is very welcome. Other useful material on BTCUSD long term projection:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
15
Bitcoin's striking fractal. Will it turn bullish on this one?I am trying to compare two sequences. The first from February 6th to November 13th 2018. The pattern was Lower Highs (if you remember each high was on 0.618 Fibonacci from the previous one) and the 5800 - 5900 level supported this consolidation until it violently broke down - 50%. The second is the current pattern. Higher Lows from November 28th 2018 to today and the 4200 - 4400 level rejecting this consolidation. Will it follow the previous pattern and break higher. If the second sequence is inversed/ mirrored you can clearly see it is almost the same fractal. The STOCH is also printing out a similar reading. Just some food for thought. I would love to read your opinions. P.S. Some evidence of trading near the bottom below:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
10
BTCUSD The underlying channel and its Buy SignalBitcoin currently gives the idea of a neutral price action. The reason for this sideways movement may be this bullish Channel. If the extreme events of the 3400 low (pushed for a 1W bottom test and failed) and the 4300 high (pushed for a 1W top test and failed) are isolated, we can see how this channel is remarkably steady on its Higher Highs and Higher Lows. I am expecting a pull back to 3850 which I will buy (on a short term basis only, meaning no holding if the channel breaks) and will target 4100. Note that BTCUS is also consolidating on the larger monthly time frame. Meaning that we will get many dip buying opportunities in the coming months. See evidence of trading near the bottom below:
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
1
BITCOIN Market Cap shows the wayA Total Crypto Market Cap chart with the 1W MA20 showing the points of pressure/ contact and the subsequent action. Three contact attempts (red arrows) with the MA20 resulted into a rejection but the third has been the key as it took place after the bottom. This signals the start of the consolidation period that lasted 31 weeks. The next contact resulted into a spike that didn't last but the second was the signal of the start of the bull market. My strategy remains buying every dip up to December's bottom.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by TradingShot
2