Bitcoin price looks settled following todays Breakout BTCUSD_2024-08-09_00-06-51_87596.png
As per my last post on Bitcoin which showed Bitcoin's strength in breaking out to the upside today from recent zones, this breakout occurred when Bitcoin was looking very bearish with D Tops across most timeframes. Be aware of a massive cup and handle formation on the weekly chart.
The chart here displays Bitcoins healthy price action as it settles in a rising wedge across 1hr, 2hr and 4hr timeframes.
We won't see these low prices again for a long time is my feeling. The interest rate reduction in the USA is practically in the bag for September and we are ever so close. Also today pleasing figures in unemployment assistance in the USA.
Going forwards to the September I am holding contracts in Silver but I have sold out of Gold as I see much more upside in Silver and potentially even more in Bitcoin. Buy the dips in small parcels that your margin can afford and safe and happy trading to everyone.
Bitcon
Bitcoin and Crypto Go MainstreamMany have always believed Bitcoin and the wider crypto market are a market of their own. Well, not anymore. A lot of times, most market participants sub-consciously forget that human psychology (especially fear and greed) are fundamental to movements in the price of any financial instrument. For example, it is literally not because of a bad jobs report that markets will move up or down but rather the interpretation of that jobs report which will lead to some form of fear or greed and the subsequent market reaction. Many have downplayed the role of the US Federal Reserve on the wider crypto market as well as the impact of economic indicators coming out of the United States.
I will point out just two scenarios which I believe are very fresh in the minds of many crypto investors. Let me begin by going a while back to 2020, when Bitcoin made all time highs. One could argue that it was just time for bitcoin to hit record highs. However, we cannot give a blind eye to the major factor behind the crypto and stock market at that time. It was a year of massive fiscal stimulus which led to free cash encouraging speculative behavior as many dashed to the financial markets to try and double their capital.
As if people sitting at home with money coming in was not enough, the US Federal Reserve maintained historically low interest rates which only added fuel to the fire that was about to turn out to be a massive bubble. These low interest rates meant borrowing cost was cheap and thus, leading to more cash in circulation. It was normal that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies should increase in their valuation due to the free money in circulation creating demand.
Reality stroke when it became apparent that the world was starring at runaway inflation and central banks around the world together with the US federal reserve will have to reduce the money in circulation at a much faster rate than they may have anticipated. It didn't take long when in 2022, people who had their sights set at Bitcoin hitting $300,000 soon saw its price nose dive to $15,000 from a high of about $68,000. It was not only bitcoin as even other cryptocurrencies and stocks sank.
The second scenario is just a few days back August-02-2024 when the markets came to the realization that we may be heading for a recession in the US after unemployment hit 4.3%. leading to bitcoin and stocks dropping so hard that some sit at -10% drops. As i write (August-04-2024), Ethereum is down about 16% in just a day. Back to my point that fear and greed drives markets, it is evident that the fear of a recession is in play and many are cashing out their profits. What should be looked as with optimism is being approached with fear. Markets have been soaring on hopes that the US Federal reserve will cut the high interest rates it put in place early on in 2022 in response to fueling the all time highs of 2020. Now that we finally have reason to believe that they will actually cut the rates, many selling their positions.
I have been long in this game to realize that this is the time for me to buy assets. When I see a 10% drop/correction, I buy and so on and so fort. I don't think those selling are stupid. I want to believe that these are those who bought in early and are taking profits to then reposition. It is wise to reposition because monetary policy coming out of the US drives markets. It fuels fear and greed in these markets. When those interest rates begin dropping, money will be injected in to the economy and with it comes investments from value investing to speculative behaviors. This is what will user the next bull run because it is a cycle that repeats itself over and over. Bitcoin halved in April of 2024 and historically, after a year of halving, it almost always rise a 100% from its value at halving.
I couldn't see a better scenario than what appears to be shaping out. I'm more altcoin friendly because I'm not capitalized enough to be aggressive with Bitcoin. So, all I conclude by saying, with these two scenarios, you can see that Bitcoin if influenced by US monetary policy especially when it comes to interests rates. After having ETFs approved and traded on US stock exchanges, Bitcoin is now mainstream and it only means more stability in its volatility which will highly be shaped by Wall Street. It is mainstream now.
Enjoy!!
$AEROUSD an alt worth watching?COINBASE:AEROUSD Finance (by request):
This altcoin is an AMM for BASE ( NASDAQ:COIN ).
We rejected from the $1 level at the channel bottom as anticipated. This month I hope to see us set a higher low, against the $0.40 cent bottom in July (blue half-circle, around $0.55), ready to re-test the $1 level by the end of the month, assuming CRYPTOCAP:BTC can find its legs. Bear case would be a breakdown of our white trend-line since March, falling to a double bottom at ~$0.40 (red flag)
Remember, the altcoin market is a derivative of the Bitcoin market, so expect the price action of COINBASE:AEROUSD to move with CRYPTOCAP:BTC , but with a higher beta. The exciting setup is that COINBASE:AEROUSD will probably trade with CRYPTOCAP:BTC bullishness - so if we can get into the top half of the channel, there is almost no resistance between ~$1.40 and the channel high at $2.
Good Bounce in BTC as expectedBTC created a sharp bounce from 50-60% Retracement levels which was expected. But I was expecting price will consolidate near resistance level but price directly break the resistance in this quick move thats why there this a retracement. People booked there profit after a quick move
IF there was consolidation near resistance then sharp continuation was expected.
Is BTC Really Bullish?Upward return movements can be considered substructure.
A range is forming for BTC, we are near the premium of this range.
We can consider the purpose of this substructure to sweep the liquidity pools on the top of the chart (which we specified with $$$).
We can expect a drop to the specified levels by sweeping one or both liquidity pools above the chart.
Closing a candlestick above the invalidation level will violate this analysis
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Bitcoin in the short and long term1- Bitcoin can cross the previous ceiling but not significantly. (October 2024)
2- Within a year after that, it reaches the range of 27,000 dollars. (October 2025)
3- In the following two years, it reaches the range of 150,000 to 250,000 dollars. (October 2027)
4- After that, it can be expected that the big fall will start at the same time as the global crisis.
@JalilRafieefard
July 19, 2024
Bullish outlook for BANANA/USDT 1-Hour ChartThe red highlighted area around 55.8338 marks a strong support zone where the price has previously found buyers.
This level has been tested multiple times, indicating its importance.
The horizontal red line at 87.2391 indicates a major resistance level.
This level has been identified as a potential target for the upward movement.
There was a significant spike in price, breaking out above the support zone and moving towards higher levels.
The price is currently consolidating after the breakout, indicating a potential continuation of the upward move.
Ensure proper position sizing to avoid overexposure to market volatility.
BTC Chart AnalysisAnalysis and Outlook
The BTC/USDT chart reflects a strong bearish trend. The price has been consistently making lower highs and lower lows, confined within a descending channel. The failure to hold above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level indicates potential further downside.
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Bearish Scenario
BTC fails to hold the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, we could see a decline towards the 50,000 USDT psychological support and further down to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level around 48,000 USDT.The 200-day EMA at 58,211.08 USDT will act as a strong resistance, and unless the price breaks above this level, the bearish sentiment is likely to persist.
Bullish Scenario
For a bullish reversal, BTC needs to break above the 200-day EMA and the upper boundary of the descending channel around 65,000 USDT. Sustained movement above these levels could shift the trend back to bullish, targeting higher Fibonacci levels and previous highs.
Conclusion
Currently, BTC is in a bearish phase with key supports being tested. Traders should watch the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the 200-day EMA for potential signs of reversal or further downside. Risk management is crucial in this volatile phase, with stops placed below key support levels to manage potential losses
Bitcoin Price Fails to Recover Above $62,500 Resistance ZoneBitcoin price failed to recover above the $62,500 resistance zone. BTC is showing bearish signs and might decline again below the $60,000 support. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $61,200 zone. BTC even attempted a move above the $62,000 resistance zone. However, the bears were active near the $62,500 zone.
A high was formed at $62,454, and the price is now moving lower. There was a move below the $61,500 level. The price declined below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from the $58,448 swing low to the $62,454 high.
Bitcoin price is trading below $62,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at $61,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
The price is now stable above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from the $58,448 swing low to the $62,454 high. If there is another increase, the price could face resistance near the $61,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $61,850 level and the trend line.
The next key resistance could be $62,000. A clear move above the $62,000 resistance might start a steady increase and send the price higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $62,500 resistance. Any more gains might send BTC toward the $63,500 resistance in the near term.
If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $62,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $60,450 level.
The first major support is $60,000. The next support is now forming near $59,500. Any more losses might send the price toward the $58,500 support zone in the near term.
Short-Term Buying Recommendation
If there is a clear move above the $62,000 resistance level, with a strong breakthrough of this resistance, Bitcoin price could begin a steady increase towards the $63,500 level. In this case, consider buying at the breakthrough of $62,000 and targeting $63,500 for short-term profits. Place stop-loss orders at the $60,450 level to minimize risk.
Selling Recommendation or Avoid Buying
If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $62,000 resistance zone, it is likely to start declining towards lower support levels. The first major support could be at $60,000 and the next support at $59,500. In this case, it is recommended to sell Bitcoin if there is a move below $60,450 or avoid buying until clear positive signals appear.
BTCWe have two scenarios for the expected movement of Bitcoin on the 4-hour timeframe. The critical level we have now is 66,600. Staying above this level and breaking the downward trend will lead us to target the last peak again or get close to it. The other scenario is failing to break the trend and resuming the correction to the 62,500 level, from which we might see a good rebound.
BTC Secondary Trend. Gann trend fan 2024-2026. TriangleLogarithm. Time frame is 3 days.
Nothing new, everything is the same as previously shown in 2022 (the main trend), targets, logic and so on.
Major trend .
BTC/USD Secondary Trend Cycles and Halvin g 1 07 2022
In the present ideas, at the moment now clearly showed this triangle in the range of dynamic support/resistance of the Gann fan (that is, the development of the uptrend phase participation to distribution).
Vertical lines. The site does not display vertical dates if for a long period, Before publication the dates (time zones) are displayed on the chart, after publication they are not. These are the times of trend reversal zones.
Local trend and this reversal zone.
BTC/USD Triangle. Medium term and local work 07 06 2024
btcPlan 1
From this first resistance, we play a little and the blue movement is done
Plan 2
We have Time News today and Green Plan
Important note
We have three important areas where I don't do a lot of shopping
We are in a short-term downtrend
If the important resistance areas are not broken, the yellow lines are in sight
We have news
It is a personal opinionPlan 1
From this first resistance, we play a little and the blue movement is done
Plan 2
We have Time News today and Green Plan
Important note
We have three important areas where I don't do a lot of shopping
We are in a short-term downtrend
If the important resistance areas are not broken, the yellow lines are in sight
We have news
It is a personal opinion