Opened (IRA): BITO June 28th 31 Covered Call... for a 27.55 debit.
Comments: Not the weakness I was looking for, but setting myself up to grab the early June dividend.
Generally, I'll look to roll out the short call at 50% max ... .
Bito
Bitcoin is losing its control. Don't lose your own!Bitcoin continues to retreat from the historical highs reached in the March quarter of 2024, as discussed in many previous posts, minds and publications.
In nowadays BTC is declining to new local lows as the macroeconomic situation in the global economy worsens and volatility (uncertainty) in the market as a whole increases.
The technical picture indicates a breakout below the growth channel, within the boundaries of which BTC has rallied for the past year and a half.
A further break below the 52-week SMA will highly likely intensify the sell-off.
Many GOOD calls on $BTC latelyCRYPTOCAP:BTC was weak after we called top.
We turned bullish on #BTC right around the most recent lows.
We sold ALL our #Bitcoin ETF's at the beginning of this week as it was getting closer to resistance and the RSI & $ Flow are weak.
Weekly chart shows that the downtrend is still intact.
We posted the last chart some time ago. Our analysis is looking more & more like a possibility. #crypto
BTC struggles again at resistance area#Bitcoin peaked "yesterday" morning. So far today it is holding the RED Mov Avg, arrow.
We see 3 bullish moving avg crossovers shown by the circles.
Volume has been mostly selling, but holding well. Interesting to say the least.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC RSI is a tad weak, which is concerning.
Opening (IRA): BITO August 16th 20 Short Put... for a 1.13 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in August at strikes better than what I currently have on, selling the 25 delta strike.
Metrics:
BPE/Break Even: 18.87
Max Profit: 1.13 ($113)
ROC at Max: 5.99%
50% Max: .57 ($57)
ROC at 50% Max: 3.00%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max/roll out at 21 DTE if it hasn't hit the TP by then.
Opening (IRA): BITO July 19th 22 Short Put... for an .81 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung at the 22 strike, which is better than either my covered call break even or the July 19th 24 short put I've got on.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, but am fine with taking on additional shares and selling call against.
$BTC call to the DAY!!! Called Capitulation few days ago!Not one to brag but....... TO THE DAY!!!!!!!
How long, how many months, have we been posting this chart with phase 1 and phase 2 of #BTC???
Well, first let's see where CRYPTOCAP:BTC closes today. But so far it is looking good at a close on the EXACT day of phase 2.
FYI
#bitcoin volume is pretty good and still a lot of time left untill the end of the day.
#crypto
Quick Analysis on Early signs of $BTC CapitulationJust a hunch on $BTC.
We bought ETF's on this last dip. IBKR only allows 10% crypto.
May begin buying spot again as we sold close to top.
First an explanation on a 4Hr #BTC chart broken down into 3 phases
(Letters A - C)
A
The descending arrow shows $ Flow weakening. There were huge buys but sells were eating it up. That was a RED FLAG. We spoke about divergence and lessening buy volume for DAYS! Few warnings.
It was eventually followed by #bitcoin selling pressure.
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B
$ Flow indicator is a laggard, we keep eyes on an investment's volume on our own, visual. In this case we're looking at the #Bitcoin volume.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC had some buying but sells kept coming in.
These were likely sellouts from leverage & shorts.
Wont comment on Germany as spot #BTC is still irrelevant.
($ Flow was fine for spot and nowhere near as bad as futures, but CRYPTOCAP:BTC kept going down. Not sure what needs to be shown for people to realize that spot is IRRELEVANT until some time in the future.)
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C
2nd CRYPTOCAP:BTC phase is almost done.
Buys coming in and the sells are not as strong anymore.
It needs a lil more time but #BTC MAY/COULD be capitulating.
It holds 52kish weekly & monthly and we could see something nice. See the chart on #GOLD for the Cup and Handle breakout.
Have a great weekend!!!
(pls see profile for more info)
Posted this months ago, likeliest $BTC scenarioWe have been showing this for some time now, couple months or so.
This scenario is looking more and more likely as the days pass on.
$BTC calls have been $ for months now, here's anotherIn less than one month it will be 6 months when CRYPTOCAP:BTC topped.
Historically, this has been an important time frame for the asset.
#Bitcoin is getting to the major support level faster than anticipated, yellow line.
The time between big cyan colored arrows is IMPORTANT.
#BTC close to oversold & TONS of $ has been taken out.
Getting closer to a bottom.
$BTC retested and caught a cold, likely will sell off moreCRYPTOCAP:BTC retested the all time high & then sold off, as expected.
The 2nd phase is the more important one and it is right around the corner. In a previous post we mentioned 3 and 6 months from ATH was a pivot point.
#BTC will likely keep selling off until it reaches major support & that area is a is do or die time, represented by cyan arrows.
#Bitcoin Money flow is not very good & the RSI is still sinking.
Opened (IRA): BITO July 19th 24 Short Put... for a 1.44 credit.
Comments: High IV at 59.6%.
Looking to pick up shares at or below my covered call's current break even of 27.10.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 22.56
Max Profit: 1.44 ($144)
ROC at Max: 6.38%
ROC at 50% Max: 3.19%
BTC looks okay, 1st phase pretty much complete, phase 2 nextTurned bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC during the beginning of May.
Futures #BTC looks good but the volume is lacking a bit.
RSI looks okay but not great.
$ Flow is not that great either.
Spot #Bitcoin = ditto.
However, technically they look good, they are trading above their respective moving averages.
What would seal the deal? HUGE volume breaking highs!
--------------------------------
Not shown here, pls see profile for more info.
Noticed an interesting weekly CRYPTOCAP:BTC pattern. Will speak on that later as the pattern will likely resolve months from now. Want to see what happens within the next couple months first.
Spot #BTC hasn't proven it's better to chart vs futures #Bitcoin, doubt it will until it counts (meaning it'll change when things hit the fan).
Current box is the best looking. We'll see what happens very soon.
#crypto
Opening (IRA): BITO July 19th 30 Covered Call... for a 26.12 debit.
Comments: Re-upping after closing out my longer-dated covered call (which I had rolled all the way out to December).
Selling the -30 delta call against long stock here. As before, will look to roll out the short call for duration at 50% max, collect the monthly dividend along the way ... . I'll also look at selling short put, assuming I can get in on weakness and with a resulting break even better than what I currently have on.
Opened (IRA): BITO April 19th 31 Covered Call... for a 27.54 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 97.9/81.9% and a monthly dividend to take advantage of. However, the monthly dividend has varied widely -- with the last two distributions paying .36 (February 8th) and .73 (March 8th) with an annual dividend of 8.72 (.73 average monthly) (31.7% annualized as a function of current price).
I'm primarily looking to grab the April monthly here; anything additional above my break even will be gravy ... .
In any event, the metrics:
BPE/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 27.54
Max Profit (ex. dividend): 3.46 ($346)
ROC at Max: 12.56%
$BTC Futures STILL better to chart vs SpotTweaked the CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart. It really needed updating. Fixed the colors too!
#BTC is 2 weeks away from the end of what we called, phase 1.
In my opinion, it's going to move SOON.
#Bitcoin breakdown:
The moving avg crossover, yellow circle, is bullish.
Cyan circles show bullish signs;
RSI above 50
Money Flow is above 0
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Bonus post
CRYPTOCAP:BTC derivatives vs spot - FINAL proof!
(They are trading a lil closer than ever)
Both #BTC RSI look identical but Futures turned bullish 1st.
However, #Bitcoin $ Flow is a VERY different.
Futures have been mostly NEGATIVE until yesterday!
Spot has been mostly above 0 until recently!
Opening (IRA): BITO June 21st 24 Short Put... for a 1.82 credit.
Comments: Adding a short put on weakness here to my covered call, which I'm sticking in with to grab the monthly divvy.
I'm okay with being assigned additional shares, since the break even of the June 24 is below the cost basis of what I currently have on. Otherwise, I'm perfectly fine with doing my usual take profit at 50% of max.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 22.18
Max Profit: 1.82 ($182)
ROC as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 8.21%
ROC at 50% Max: 4.10%
$BTC better lately but not ready, ALMOST!CRYPTOCAP:BTC has been looking better as of late.
The 1st phase we spoke about is almost done!
#BTC shows a successful GREEN Moving Avg test, two weeks ago.
Final #Bitcoin chart shows the reduced $ flow & the RSI not as strong as it was last time it was at these levels = Bull is not dead but it is not as strong as before.
In no way does this mean that 100-110k out the question.
#crypto
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Surge – A Bullish Signal for Market Adoption?Welcome to a pivotal moment in the Bitcoin market! As we witness the launch of several spot Bitcoin ETFs, including giants like Fidelity's FBTC, Bitwise's BITB, and Franklin Templeton's EZBC, the landscape of cryptocurrency investing is evolving before our eyes.
First-day volumes paint a promising picture, with funds that 'Buy Bitcoin' directly, such as FBTC (Fidelity), BITB (Bitwise), and EZBC (Franklin Templeton), accounting for a significant 14.06% of the total volume. This direct investment approach is injecting fresh capital into the spot Bitcoin market, hinting at a bullish outlook for Bitcoin adoption and price movement.
Let's not overlook the powerhouses that follow Bitcoin's price through derivatives, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) and Grayscale's GBTC, which command an impressive 85.94% of the total volume. While they may not directly purchase Bitcoin, their market presence can't be ignored, as they reflect growing investor interest and add to the overall Bitcoin market depth.
With the potential move to a T+1 settlement cycle, the market could see increased efficiency and a more immediate impact from ETF inflows. This could be particularly beneficial for ETFs purchasing Bitcoin, as it allows for quicker capital deployment, enhancing the responsiveness of the market to new investments.
But let's temper our optimism with a dose of reality. It's crucial to remember that not all ETFs are created equal – some provide direct exposure to Bitcoin's price movements, while others offer a more nuanced approach through futures and other financial instruments. The true impact of these funds will unfold with time, as we closely monitor their influence on market demand and price dynamics.
In essence, the influx of new Bitcoin ETFs could be a harbinger of increased adoption and integration of Bitcoin into the mainstream financial world. This is a bullish sign for those of us optimistic about the future of digital assets.
Stay tuned for more updates as we navigate this exciting phase of market growth. And remember, despite the complexities, the introduction of these ETFs is a step toward broader acceptance and a testament to Bitcoin's enduring allure.
So..still very Bullish news... still very Good news!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Opened (IRA): BITO May 17th 24 Short Put... for a 1.74 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung at strikes better than what I currently have on. Will generally look to take profit at 50% max or take assignment of shares should that occur and proceed to sell call against.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares (If Assigned): 22.26
Max Profit: 1.74 ($174)
ROC %-age at Max: 7.82%
ROC %-age at 50% Max: 3.91%
Opening (IRA): BITO April 19th 26 Short Put... for a 1.23 credit.
Comments: Adding to my covered call position (See Post Below) on weakness, converting the covered call into a covered strangle (i.e., short put + stock + short call). I went with April, since May appeared to be shit illiquid at where I'd want to pitch my tent.
I'm fine with being assigned additional stock here at the 26 strike, since my cost basis in my shares is currently 27.54, with the cost basis in any shares assigned via the 26 at 24.77, although my preference would be just to take profit on the covered call aspect at 50% max and the short put at 50% max and move on.
Naturally, if I also manage to grab the April dividend, that would be additionally bueno.
As a standalone trade:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis in Any Assigned Shares: 24.77
Max Profit: 1.23 ($123)
ROC at Max: 4.97%
ROC at 50% Max: 2.48%
$BTC seems tired, Weekly most overextended vs AveragesGOOD MORNING
The CRYPTOCAP:BTC RSI is weakening further as it hits 74k.
The closer it gets to 80-100k the more risk rises.
#BTC is due for another correction/consolidation, IMO.
#Bitcoin $ Flow is still decent so, IMO this is not the top.
A)Shows RSI peaked & Selling begins to come in.
EURONEXT:FLOW was NOT strong at all.
B) Volume is light before picking up.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC has Heavy Buying coming in.
RSI hits the peak for this run.
$ Flow stable & goes higher.
C) #BTC buying subsides.
RSI is further weakening.
$ Flow still decent but keep in mind that this is LAGGING indicator.
Weekly
#Bitcoin is attracted to the Green Moving Avg.
This is the most overextended it has been during this run.
Needs rest imo
$BTC making moves, not stoppingPosted this elswhere(see profile here for more info) last night:
RSI is falling on For CRYPTOCAP:BTC Futures & Spot
#BTC Money Flow does look better on Futures vs Spot
The #Bitcoin weekly, last chart, looks VERY interesting. We have spoken on this possibility already. The Inverse Head & Shoulder Pattern - Tends to be very bullish.
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Today
This is why you DO NOT trade on indicators alone. MOMENTUM/TREND is KEY!
Unless we make it CLEAR, weakness is just pointed out.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC will eventually CRACK, BUT it could be 100, 120, 200k, who knows?!
But it'll show signs when it begins to wane. None atm!
Prefer #BTC Futures charts vs Spot charts as, to me, they give a better idea.
#Bitcoin let's GO!
