Booking Holdings: Trend Reversal! The sharpness of the correction and the current structure lead us to consider the last high at $4147 as the end of the major wave (I) in blue. We now expect a countermovement in the green wave (II), which should end below the resistance at $4147. Following this corrective counter-move, we expect further declines. That being said, our alternative scenario (33%) calls for further record highs. In this case, we will still have to place the price in the blue wave alt. (I).
BKNG
Booking Holdings Stock Spikes As Travel Demand Powers Strong Q1Booking Holdings ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) has reported a remarkable surge in earnings for the first quarter, defying earlier concerns about the travel industry's recovery. The company's stellar performance not only exceeded analyst expectations but also underscored a robust demand for travel services despite ongoing global challenges.
Unveiling Impressive Figures:
Booking Holdings ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) reported a staggering 76% increase in earnings for the first quarter, comfortably surpassing analyst projections. With adjusted earnings reaching $20.39 per share on sales totaling $4.4 billion, the company outpaced expectations, leaving market analysts in awe. This remarkable performance is a testament to Booking Holdings' adaptability and strategic resilience in navigating turbulent times.
Driving Forces Behind the Surge:
The surge in earnings can be attributed to several key factors. Firstly, Booking Holdings ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) experienced a notable uptick in gross travel bookings, which soared by 10% to an impressive $43.5 billion. This surge outpaced market expectations, indicating a strong resurgence in consumer confidence and travel demand. Additionally, the increase in room nights booked, up by 9% year-over-year to 297 million, further solidifies Booking Holdings' position as a dominant force in the online travel sector.
Booking.com: Spearheading Growth:
Booking Holdings' diverse portfolio of online travel brands, including Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, Kayak, and OpenTable, has played a pivotal role in driving its remarkable performance. Particularly noteworthy is the momentum witnessed by Booking.com, which has seen a surge in "higher frequency" users and an increasing direct mix. Chief Executive Glenn Fogel highlighted the growing trend of travelers moving into the upper Genius loyalty tiers, signaling a strengthening customer base and enhanced brand loyalty.
Market Response and Technical Ratings:
In response to Booking Holdings' stellar performance, the stock witnessed a notable uptick, with shares rising more than 1% in after-hours trading. While the stock has experienced fluctuations throughout the year, with a modest decline of 2%, it has significantly outperformed the broader market, boasting a robust 29.4% increase over the past 12 months. These technical ratings underscore investor confidence in Booking Holdings' long-term growth prospects and ability to capitalize on evolving market dynamics.
Technical Outlook
Bookings Holdings stock ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) is up 7% in Friday's market trading at the 0.37 Fibonacci Retracement Level. The stock has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 64 making it fit for further surge in price.
BKNG may reverse SHORTBKNG is an expensive stock; it id not get that way being a slouch. Summer travel is sixty days
away. The 2H chart shows the highs of February followed by a paradoxical fall with good
earnings. Traders wanted better. Price fell past the Fibonacci support zone and into
the lower VWAP band lines.
Fundamentally German regulators are suing BKNG for some issues with deceptive advertising
and promotions with partners. In the past week price again rose this time to stall in that same
Fibonacci zone. The predictive algorithm of Lux Algo forecasts a rejection here with the price
moving down. I will short a single share of BKNG here. The stop loss will be set at 3675
while targeting 3440 above a support zone. I am expecting of $175 in realized profits in 5-10
days.
JETS, a travel ETF rising summer travel season approaches LONGJETS on the reliable daily chart is in trend up since last fall which followed a trend down
during the spring and summer. Travel stocks are booming here and there including TCOM
(Trips.com) in China. The airlines have high volumes and are competing on price and perks.
So are the cruise lines. This ETF is a way to capture some profit from the trends. If has lower
risk but also lower reward than an individual stock JETS is upside range bound by the
second upper VWAP line above it. The predictive algorithm of Luxalgo forecasts a rise
to about 22 before that VWAP line rejects price into a reversal. I am shorts JETS while also
shorting NCLH and going long on AAL. I expect to profit and use funds for some more
frequent travel. The karma in the whole thing is that it is a closed circle. Watch travel
companies including booking agents, spent money traveling get insights and then deploy
capital to work those markets for profit returns to recycle the funds into more travel.
Booking Holdings Faces Headwinds Amidst Travel Uncertainties
In the wake of Booking Holdings Inc.'s ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) disappointing forecast for travel reservations and gross bookings, investors are grappling with uncertainties surrounding the company's future trajectory. The recent plunge in Booking's shares, the most significant in 20 months, reflects the market's concerns about the impact of geopolitical tensions, currency fluctuations, and lingering effects of the pandemic on the travel industry.
Booking Holdings ( NASDAQ:BKNG ), a global leader in online travel and related services, operates under six major brands, including Agoda, Priceline.com, and Kayak. Its substantial presence in Europe and the Middle East positions it as a vital barometer for global travel trends. However, the company's outlook for the first quarter fell short of expectations, citing factors such as the conflict in Israel and adverse currency exchange rates.
The company's projection of a 4% to 6% growth in room nights booked for the first quarter, and a full-year gross bookings increase slightly faster than 7%, disappointed analysts, who had anticipated a 9.9% growth rate. This subdued outlook rattled investors, leading to an 8.7% drop in Booking's shares, making it the second-worst performing stock in the S&P 500 Index on that day.
Chief Executive Officer Glenn Fogel acknowledged the impact of the conflict in Israel on Booking's ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) performance, stating that fourth-quarter room nights booked gained 11% excluding business associated with the war. Additionally, Chief Financial Officer David Goulden highlighted the expected negative effects of exchange rate fluctuations and geopolitical tensions on the company's growth prospects.
Despite reporting a revenue growth of 18% in the fourth quarter, surpassing analyst projections, Booking ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) faces challenges in sustaining its momentum amidst evolving market conditions. The company's initiation of a quarterly dividend signals its commitment to shareholders amidst turbulent times.
Booking's ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) struggles echo those of its competitors in the travel industry. Rival Expedia Group Inc. recently provided a downbeat forecast, citing lower airline prices and uncertainties following a robust travel season in early 2023. Similarly, home rental company Airbnb Inc. noted the normalization of demand as the world emerges from the pandemic.
However, amidst these challenges, Fogel remains optimistic about Booking's resilience and growth prospects. He emphasized the company's ambition to outpace pre-pandemic performance, driven by resurging demand for leisure travel as the summer season approaches. Fogel's confidence in a strong rebound in travel, supported by early indications of robust bookings for 2024, provides a glimmer of hope for investors.
As Booking Holdings ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) navigates through turbulent waters, it faces the daunting task of balancing short-term challenges with long-term growth strategies. The company's ability to adapt to changing market dynamics, mitigate geopolitical risks, and capitalize on emerging travel trends will ultimately determine its success in the post-pandemic era. Despite the current setbacks, Booking Holdings ( NASDAQ:BKNG ) remains a key player in shaping the future of global travel.
BKNG Booking Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BKNG Booking Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 2915usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-10,
for a premium of approximately $20.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
BOOKING Who said travel season was over? 1D MA200 buy signal!Booking Holdings (BKNG) almost touched the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since December 30 2022, and reacted with a strong 1D rebound yesterday. That was also at the bottom of the 14-month Channel Up pattern. With the 1D RSI breaking below the 30.00 oversold barrier on Friday, this is technically the best buy opportunity since the Channel's first Low on October 13 2022.
In fact the two fractals are identical with the 2022 one breaking above the dashed Lower Highs trend-line and hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we issue a buy signal on BKNG, targeting 3140 (Fib 0.786) before the year is over.
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BKNG ↘️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽♂️
🔴 2998.99
🟢 2622.66
🟢 2456.57
We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone,
manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $.
Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us.
Follow us for more 🙋🏻♂️
Best Regard / EMA Trading .
Disclaimer:
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It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market .
Booking Holdings: Southern Vacation? 🌴The price of Booking Holding has been heading south in recent days. It has now come very close to support at $2934. As long as this level is not breached, we believe that the price should continue to rise above the resistance at $3251 with the turquoise wave 5. However, if the support is breached, which we see as 33% probable, the price would still make a lower low of the grey wave alt.(II).
Booking (BKNG) -> Pay Very Close AttentionMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Booking Holdings.
Almost 10 years ago Booking Holdings stock entered a quite decent rising channel and is currently retesting the upper resistance from which I do expect a minor bearish rejection.
I would then look for longs at the $2400 structure zone or the $1900 rising channel support since the overall trend is still quite bullish and I do expect a bullish reversal there.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
BKNG - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Breakout the ceiling of rising trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹Supports 2770 in negative reaction.
🔹Technically POSTIIVE for medium-term long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
BKNG: Hidden Accumulation CuesThe big season for vacations starts this week as schools close, graduations begin, weddings increase, and families plan big vacations this year.
BKNG has had HFTs attempting to sell it down several times but it holds within a sideways trend still. This implies hidden accumulation.
If it breaks to the upside, then this sideways trend becomes support.
BKNG must do as all other high-priced stocks have done: do a big split to lower the share price to $100 - 300. When the Board does so, the stock has more potential for runs up rather than down.
Booking Holdings: Reservation confirmed 🏨Booking Holdings has booked a room in our dark green target zone between $2939 and $3096 and should reach this destination via wave b in gray. During its stay, the share should establish the distinctive top of the current movement and then leave its dark green lodging on the southern side, heading for the support at $2456. However, there is a 30% chance that wave alt.b in gray could have already checked out and that Booking Holdings could start its journey below $2456 earlier. In that case, the dark green hotel room would remain vacated.
Booking Slips Below Nearby SupportGoing sideways since 2018, Booking.com has not gained much ground. Despite claiming a new all-time high in 2022, the RSI has shown a loss in relative strength. Its very likely that this stock sees a 60% drop in value over the next 2-3 years. Holders should look for the most suitable exit in order to avoid more losses than necessary.
(Wave analysis has been redacted from this marking however, wave-by-wave analysis will be tracked via link in bio).
Booking following the general trend. BKNGWe are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Confirmation level, where relevant, is a pink dotted, finite line. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
Booking Holdings Inc – 40% Shorting Opportunity Not to Be MissedIf you like this idea, please don’t forget to Boost it.
Fundamental Indicators:
Sector – Consumer Cyclical
US Business Cycle Stage – late cycle, when this sector is not favourable
Revenue – suffered significantly during pandemic period and 2022 TTM is showing revenue just shy of 2019 level, with 9% average annual rate
Profits – profits, however, have not recovered and considerably lower pre-pandemic high, nearly 70% less than in 2019
Net margin – decent 10.5% but considerably less than in 2019 with over 30%
P/E – extremely high with 55 ratio compared to S&P500 with 21 and Consumer Cyclical sector with 23
Liabilities - debt ratio is at 0.84 which is a little over the norm, Net Debt/ EBITDA is negative – no problems with debt
Conclusion – considering that business is still struggling to recover from the pandemic, with considerable drop in earnings, and being grossly overpriced, it is very likely to correct further
Technical Analysis (Elliott Waves):
Main scenario of this idea suggests that we are still observing development of the global growth cycle which is currently at the stage of forming corrective wave 4 (see higher timeframe graph)
From the point of correction during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 this company has enjoyed explosive growth with nearly 7000% in stock appreciation
Although very rapid, the whole movement is choppy with a lot of crossings, hence likely to be an Ending Diagonal (see guidelines for Ending Diagonals below)
We are currently observing the formation of wave 4 of this Ending Diagonal, where the first leg is forming as ABC zigzag – wave A as an impulse has completed and wave B is shaping as a complex Running Correction which is normally contained within a channel
Once it reaches boundaries of this channel at a circa $2290 level, we can expect a reversal and unravelling of wave C towards the level of circa $1370 – which may present 40% shorting opportunity
This is a higher timeframe to reflect the full history of Booking Holdings Inc and to provide full wave count:
This is the link to the guidelines for Ending Diagonals
What do you think about Booking Holdings Inc and its short term prospects?
Also let me know if you would like to see other stocks, indices, Forex or Crypto analysed using Elliott Waves. And BOOST this idea if you like it.
Thanks
BookingSunday, 18 July 2021
21:21 PM (WIB)
Booking has very interesting Chart that lay down exactly at the lowest low of ascending channel.
Considering the chart fall from the highest resistance to the lowest low, there is possibility the price will start to move up again.
Other side, Covid19 New Delta Varian made some major countries to lock down again with 100% Work From Home.
So, I'm expecting the price still moving lower and breaks down the strong support blue lines in this week.
Booking sure has to be on the Watchlist.
Best regards,
RyodaBrainless
"Live to Ride and Ride to Live"
Airbnb (ABNB): Everything You Need to Know for the IPOAirbnb is an online rental marketplace for lodging, home stays, and tourism experiences.
The company does not own any real estate listings, but offers a platform through which people can take part in the sharing economy.
Airbnb announced its filing for an initial public offering (IPO) in August.
In this analysis, we’ll be going over everything investors need to know about the IPO, and my own insight on whether this is a golden opportunity.
Most of the information provided below is based on the S1 Airbnb Submitted to the SEC.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only.
Business Model
- Airbnb connects hosts who are willing to provide room, with guests
- Airbnb profits from charging a service fee to both the host and the guest
- While it initially started off as hosts providing bedrooms, the company has managed to find and expand on different types of lodges.
- Airbnb is well known for its systematic operations; they have a unique guest/host review system, rules regarding cancellations and deposits, and is oriented and focused on building a community.
Counterparts Cases
- Airbnb’s counterparts include companies like Expedia group (EXPE) and Booking Holdings (BKNG)
- It’s important to take into consideration the growing competitiveness within the booking market.
- Unlike Airbnb, both Expedia group and Booking Holdings are reporting solid earnings as their operating profits increase yoy.
- TripAdvisor (TRIP), which reported $156m in revenue for 2019 and an operating profit of $18.7m, while small, is another example of companies competing against Airbnb
- However, to be fair, these companies also all fell victim to the Covid-19 pandemic.
IPO Information
- The company will be listed on the NASDAQ exchange under the ticker ABNB
- The specific date of the IPO and price per share is yet to be officially announced.
Financials
- Due to Covid-19, the company’s revenue and profitability plummeted in 2020.
- Q2 2020 revenue was $350m, which is a 67% compared to Q2 2019, which recorded a quarterly revenue of over a billion.
- These numbers are less than half of the reported revenue for Q1 2020, of $842m
- As a result, the company’s valuation dropped from $31b to $18b.
- The fact that the company is not profitable yet is also quite fatal.
- In 2017 and 2018, there was a lot of hype around the company as they showed positive numbers for their EBITDA (earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation, and amortization)
- But, the company has been reporting inconsistent revenue ever since, and their sales and marketing
- As of September 30 2020, the company has $2.6b in cash, which is more than numbers reported for cash and cash equivalents in 2019 and 2018.
- Nonetheless, this is way below their short term net liabilities of $4.38b, which is considered a warning sign in terms of financial stability.
- Additionally, they have $1.8b in long term debt as well.
- Taking all of this into consideration, we could make an educated guess that Airbnb is trying to seek for funds through this IPO.
- It has already undergone its Series F investments, and is a unicorn company (a private company with a valuation over $1b), which makes it difficult to receive any further meaningful investments.
Covid-19 Impact
- Airbnb is part of the industry that was arguably most heavily affected by the Covid-19 pandemic
- They had a net 4.1m cancellations in March, when fear regarding Covid-19 peaked.
- I’ve mentioned this in a previous analysis, but Covid-19 has fundamentally changed the way we live forever
- As a result, Airbnb’s goal of creating a community of hosts and guests has faced a huge obstacle, as people prefer to stay at hotels, which involve lower risk of Covid-19 infections.
- Thus, whether people would want to travel via Airbnb after the pandemic is solved still remains extremely murky, as clear solutions to the current situation are yet to be proposed.
- Unlike other large tech companies, Airbnb lacks the cash to endure a long phase of hardship.
- Due to the impact of Covid-19, the company has laid off over 1,900 employees to cut costs.
Historical Cases
- We have seen other companies within the sphere of the sharing economy take part in IPOs that have failed miserably
- Companies such as Uber Technologies (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) are prime examples. (Refer to the charts on the right)
- They were provided multiples way above their actual value, and their stock prices eventually fell way below the IPO price.
- WeWork, once valued at $47b, failed its IPO due to massive debt and shaky corporate structures, and is now valued at $2.9b
- Given past cases of other tech companies within the realm of the sharing economy having undergone failed IPOs due to overvalued multiples, it’s important to consider why Airbnb might be exempt from this case.
Mike’s Insight
In summary, while Airbnb’s listing is arguably the most important IPO of 2020, investors need to consider all possible factors before participating in the IPO. Its growing number of users suggest that the business is on the right track over the long run, but is faced with a serious external risk that the company has no control over. As this risk extends throughout time, the more damaging it is to the fundamentals of the business, thus providing room for investors to reconsider the proper valuation of the company. In my humble opinion, given that the company goes public at a $30b valuation, I think we’d see prices drop sharply after the IPO. Nonetheless, I could consider adding it to my portfolio as we see clearer signs of the world recovering from the coronavirus.
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