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Airbnb (ABNB): Everything You Need to Know for the IPOAirbnb is an online rental marketplace for lodging, home stays, and tourism experiences. The company does not own any real estate listings, but offers a platform through which people can take part in the sharing economy. Airbnb announced its filing for an initial public offering (IPO) in August. In this analysis, we’ll be going over everything investors need to know about the IPO, and my own insight on whether this is a golden opportunity. Most of the information provided below is based on the S1 Airbnb Submitted to the SEC. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only. Business Model - Airbnb connects hosts who are willing to provide room, with guests - Airbnb profits from charging a service fee to both the host and the guest - While it initially started off as hosts providing bedrooms, the company has managed to find and expand on different types of lodges. - Airbnb is well known for its systematic operations; they have a unique guest/host review system, rules regarding cancellations and deposits, and is oriented and focused on building a community. Counterparts Cases - Airbnb’s counterparts include companies like Expedia group (EXPE) and Booking Holdings (BKNG) - It’s important to take into consideration the growing competitiveness within the booking market. - Unlike Airbnb, both Expedia group and Booking Holdings are reporting solid earnings as their operating profits increase yoy. - TripAdvisor (TRIP), which reported $156m in revenue for 2019 and an operating profit of $18.7m, while small, is another example of companies competing against Airbnb - However, to be fair, these companies also all fell victim to the Covid-19 pandemic. IPO Information - The company will be listed on the NASDAQ exchange under the ticker ABNB - The specific date of the IPO and price per share is yet to be officially announced. Financials - Due to Covid-19, the company’s revenue and profitability plummeted in 2020. - Q2 2020 revenue was $350m, which is a 67% compared to Q2 2019, which recorded a quarterly revenue of over a billion. - These numbers are less than half of the reported revenue for Q1 2020, of $842m - As a result, the company’s valuation dropped from $31b to $18b. - The fact that the company is not profitable yet is also quite fatal. - In 2017 and 2018, there was a lot of hype around the company as they showed positive numbers for their EBITDA (earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) - But, the company has been reporting inconsistent revenue ever since, and their sales and marketing - As of September 30 2020, the company has $2.6b in cash, which is more than numbers reported for cash and cash equivalents in 2019 and 2018. - Nonetheless, this is way below their short term net liabilities of $4.38b, which is considered a warning sign in terms of financial stability. - Additionally, they have $1.8b in long term debt as well. - Taking all of this into consideration, we could make an educated guess that Airbnb is trying to seek for funds through this IPO. - It has already undergone its Series F investments, and is a unicorn company (a private company with a valuation over $1b), which makes it difficult to receive any further meaningful investments. Covid-19 Impact - Airbnb is part of the industry that was arguably most heavily affected by the Covid-19 pandemic - They had a net 4.1m cancellations in March, when fear regarding Covid-19 peaked. - I’ve mentioned this in a previous analysis, but Covid-19 has fundamentally changed the way we live forever - As a result, Airbnb’s goal of creating a community of hosts and guests has faced a huge obstacle, as people prefer to stay at hotels, which involve lower risk of Covid-19 infections. - Thus, whether people would want to travel via Airbnb after the pandemic is solved still remains extremely murky, as clear solutions to the current situation are yet to be proposed. - Unlike other large tech companies, Airbnb lacks the cash to endure a long phase of hardship. - Due to the impact of Covid-19, the company has laid off over 1,900 employees to cut costs. Historical Cases - We have seen other companies within the sphere of the sharing economy take part in IPOs that have failed miserably - Companies such as Uber Technologies (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) are prime examples. (Refer to the charts on the right) - They were provided multiples way above their actual value, and their stock prices eventually fell way below the IPO price. - WeWork, once valued at $47b, failed its IPO due to massive debt and shaky corporate structures, and is now valued at $2.9b - Given past cases of other tech companies within the realm of the sharing economy having undergone failed IPOs due to overvalued multiples, it’s important to consider why Airbnb might be exempt from this case. Mike’s Insight In summary, while Airbnb’s listing is arguably the most important IPO of 2020, investors need to consider all possible factors before participating in the IPO. Its growing number of users suggest that the business is on the right track over the long run, but is faced with a serious external risk that the company has no control over. As this risk extends throughout time, the more damaging it is to the fundamentals of the business, thus providing room for investors to reconsider the proper valuation of the company. In my humble opinion, given that the company goes public at a $30b valuation, I think we’d see prices drop sharply after the IPO. Nonetheless, I could consider adding it to my portfolio as we see clearer signs of the world recovering from the coronavirus. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight :)
NASDAQ:ABNB
by Michael_Wang_Official
52
Why A Second Covid19 Wave May Not Hit Travel Stocks So HardWhy a second Covid-19 wave may not hit travel stocks as hard as expected Travel’s troubles might slowly be waning. Even as U.S. coronavirus case counts spike at a record pace, the industry may have some newfound “leeway” in how it prepares for a possible second wave. Consumers are growing increasingly frustrated with staying home and many are opting for road trips over flying, which many still consider being of higher risk. Demand for big corporate travel isn’t back yet, but it’s going to keep these hotels continuing to grow back out of this hole, so, I don’t see them going away quite yet. Marriott and Booking Holdings reported earnings above analysts’ expectations last week, with both companies noting that travel trends were improving despite continued pressure on their businesses. Booking Holdings CEO Glenn Fogel told CNBC on Friday that October’s rise in Covid cases and restrictions dampened the online travel giant’s results for the month. Trend-based Fib extension shows that there is a strong support level around 1600. In general, a confident uptrend, aiming at levels. Best regards EXCAVO
NASDAQ:BKNGLong
by EXCAVO
4
BKNG Headed to retest 50DMA firstNice little chart on booking to watch. Got the gap up serving as support, showing so already, indicated by the dashed line. This is coming right into the 50DMA if we keep moving sideways. The 2 hourly chart showing three black crows coming down, looking like likely movement to the downside in the immediate future. Should be found by support at 50 DMA and will watch for reversal DOJIs and spinning tops to indicate reversal off this point. If it breaks through the 50 DMA support will be looking at the next gap support shown by lower dashed line and this coming into the 200 DMA to find sturdy support on the bottom channel. Previous recent highs as resistance and above that previous gap down indicated by solid white line as upper resistance. Looking for a 61% retracement off our newly forming lows to the previous recent high as a sturdy target, right now looking around 1865 to be determined in coming days when we find reversal. We’re also 5-6 days into a pull back cycle, typically these pull back cycles look to run 5-8 days before reversal. #NASDAQ35000hat
NASDAQ:BKNGLong
by TraderCaps
$TSLA Plays the "Split" Card to Draw in More from Mom and PopTSLA still laughs at us from above that $1300 level. But it's an itch that needs to be scratched -- now lined up with the 50-day and the primary trend line, to boot. But that relief will have to wait a little longer as Elon and the fellas became the second major megacap to hit the "split" button (after AAPL). Expect a lot more splits this fall now that we are in the first "retail driven" bull market since the 1990's. Who's next? AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, NFLX, BKNG, ISRG...
NASDAQ:TSLA
by GregFolin
2
$AMZN vs $BKNG (aka PCLN Priceline) Dead Even Race Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN is Blue Priceline (renamed NASDAQ:BKNG Booking Holdings recently (and oddly) is Orange. White vertical line indicates most recent percentage change flip flop since market bottom in early 2009. Priceline has been beating AMZN since July 2019, 5 months ago. Why? If trade war related, then Amazon is undervalued currently, since there’s apparently a trade deal that’s happened. If it’s not, then discount travel online brokers is ironically winning the race against online retailers. Or they’re neck and neck at a minimum... Hmmmm
NASDAQ:AMZN
by jgeno
1