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Black Monday all over again on October 19 and Where SQ may drop The weekly chart of SQ showed a strong rejection of higher prices at Vwap with an increase in volume and if history is to repeat itself and we have a huge move down like we did on October 19, 1987 then I see prices going all the way down to $10 next week. Its possible for a move of this size because SQ did drop this much on the week of May 9, 2022. The $10 target is based on a measured move of the sideways range. With so much turmoil going on around the world and with the bond market tanking, I think the equity market has a lot to catch up to in a short amount of time. Tlt 20 year tbond etf had a No Demand up day on Friday on very low volume so its very likely to continue dropping. With interest yields rising, something has to break and I think it will the equity markets.
NYSE:SQShort
by EliteTrader101
BTC Slow Drip Into the Halving Rip?BTC Loves taunting us in this current range, however macro is changing with Larry Fink labeling Bitcoin “digital gold” is BTC a prime candidate to act as a modern day hedge to big money? So the big question is where do we go from here if we look at past halvings it’s likely Bitcoin has seen it’s bottom in 2022 of December - forbearing Binance doesn’t collapse and send us lower ( not a improbable ). However if we look at past halvings we should start to see a retracement from now into the end of the year, before the glorious bull run of all time for BTC. Possible with deep pockets like black rock and Cathie wood involved we could see this process front runned, so dips are your friends. Just my take & best of luck!
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Theia_
Grains outlook hangs in the balance of the Black Sea Grain deal The failed rebellion by the Wagner group over the June 24th weekend brought to light not only the ineptitude of the Russian top military command but also the carefully crafted image of President Putin as the guarantor of stability. Putin’s assertion that the quick end of the 24-hour revolt had shown the unity of Russians behind him was contradicted by footage of adoring crowds cheering Prigozhin and his fighters as they came out of a southern city they had occupied. It is possible that Putin could step up the escalation between Russia and Ukraine to re-establish his position which currently appears weakened. The recent political turmoil in Russia lowers the probability of the Black Sea Grain deal being extended beyond mid-July (current deal expires on July 18th). No respite in Russia’s sabre-rattling Even prior to the failed coup in Russia, pessimism had been expressed by both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. One senior Ukrainian diplomat has even spoken of a 99% probability of Russia withdrawing from the agreement. Russia has repeatedly threatened to quit the deal, complaining that obstacles remain to its own exports of food and fertilizer. It has also demanded the re-opening of the ammonia pipeline as a condition for renewing the grain corridor deal through the Black Sea. However, the ammonia pipeline was damaged a day before the Kakhovka dam was destroyed on June 6. This increases the risk that Russia could after all follow through on its threat and revoke the grain deal as early as July. Grains outlook clouded by Black Sea Grain deal The original agreement brokered on 22 July 2022, by the United Nations and Turkey to open a safe maritime humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea helped to address the global food security crisis and lower grains prices. Participants on the agricultural markets remain anxious on the extension of the current deal and it could lend additional tailwinds to grains prices. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, wheat, corn and soybeans saw a 21%, 43% and 35% decline in short positioning underscoring a shift in sentiment towards weather uncertainty and geopolitical risk premiums. Top wheat producers forecast weak supply outlook owing to adverse weather conditions The prospects for the wheat crop in key producer countries has disappointed of late owing to adverse weather conditions. Dry conditions and low soil moisture in the west and east coasts of Australia imply that much of the 2023-24 crop has been sown dry and will require adequate and timely rain to allow the plants to germinate. Wheat is a major winter crop in Australia with planting from April and the harvest starting in November. The expected onset of the El Niño conditions from July will likely see winter crop output fall significantly according to Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Science (ABARES). Across the globe, wild weather is affecting crops elsewhere, including Americas and North Africa. Europe is also being impacted by high temperatures and scant rainfall, increasing the risk of damage to the continent’s wheat crops. On the flip side, Canada and Ukrainian wheat supply forecasts are positive. According to Statistics Canada, 26.9 million acres have been planted with wheat – not only is this the highest figure in 22 years, it is also 0.4 million acres more than the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected . The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) predicts significantly higher yields this year, meaning that the crop – contrary to what has been expected so far – could actually turn out to be higher than last season. However Ukrainian farmers are likely to struggle to export their grain owing to the uncertainty surrounding the Black Sea grains corridor. Corn market remains bullish Dry weather in the US and Europe has seen the condition of the corn and soybean crop deteriorate resulting in a price positive environment for corn and soybean. The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) in its latest crop progress report continues to highlight concerns for the US corn and soybean crop, given the current dry weather conditions. The USDA rates 50% of the corn crop in good-to-excellent condition compared to 67% seen at the same stage last year. Moreover, the rating of the corn crop is the lowest seen for this time of year since 1988. This implies that the USDA’s optimistic forecast of 15.3bn bushels for the us corn crop in 2023/24 will hardly prove reasonable any longer. The National Centres for Environmental Prediction said it expects many parts of the Corn Belt that have been turning dry over the past month will get more rain than usual for this time of year over the next two weeks marking a change from earlier indications that El Niño would limit rainfall for thirsty crops. Soybean is also facing a similar story with 51% of the soybean crop rated good-to-excellent condition compared to 65% at the same time last year . Growing pessimism over the extension of the Black Sea Grains deal beyond mid-July is also likely to lend an additional tailwind for corn and soybean. Weak Chinese imports through most of the 2022/23 season surged in May to over 14.8mmt of corn, wheat, and soybeans, which was the highest monthly total since June 2021 . However we would caution that a fairly muted crop-based biofuel quotas from the US Environmental Protection Agency could offset some of the strength in Chinese demand. The front end of the soybean futures curve has extended its backwardation, now providing investors a 6.4% roll yield compared to 0% last month . This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Editors' picks
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by aneekaguptaWTE
7
$CARV: The S in ESG & “Transitory Inflation”Environmental, social and governance (ESG) integration is Blackrock’s practice of incorporating ESG information into decisions to help enhance risk-adjusted returns and I believe this 20 level here represents something significant. Following this ESG thesis one could expect a stock to rank highly in the social category, however, it doesn’t come without some significant risks and those risks may be why we find ourselves underneath this highly liquid area. Those risks come from inflation and crypto. If these macro inflation or crypto trends continue to play out this could mean the Fed has lost control of inflation which then will lead to the $DXY index rejecting 95 in a meaningful way. These forces could be devastating for Carver’s value as their customers lose purchasing power. However, if the Fed moves on with raising rates and the dollar rises back through the aforementioned 95 level, this could lead to tremendous benefits out of Washington in the future. In short, watch the 20 level in CARV and $DXY 95 over the following weeks / months to see which way the market will decide to push this stock
NASDAQ:CARV
by Fox_Technicals
Black Swan - Tinfoil Hat PlayWith the synchronized outages of social media platforms Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, & Twitter ... so far ... conspiracists have been saying for sometime to expect a national/global cyber attack that could create some sort of internet blackout. If this happens, I'd expect Bitcoin to crash to the predictive 1.5 fib that sits around 27.6k . Then the whales have filled up their bags giving the greenlight for a supercycle. I've deleveraged - I'm not expecting this to happen, but leverage isn't something I'd want to play around with when this social media outage could create a scare/flashcrash.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ungovernable
5
Waiting for the next Market CrashIncoming High Volatility Resembling 'Black Tuesday' Increased spending, debt, inflation, and uncertainty are getting out of hand as well as political instability and international tensions during a pandemic and a recession. We may never see a crash like 'Black Tuesday' again since strict regulations were implemented, but chart Indicators are showing high weakness at levels not seen in the last 27 years or more. When in doubt, zoom out. In recent months SPY has been in a sideways price trend traveling between strong levels of support and resistance. This consolidation trend may be getting ready to decide the next trend direction. This action is occurring above the channel which may appear as a false breakout that would send it back down within the channel. Even if the price decides to instead raise, the price will eventually have to return back within the channel. Expect volatility in the long-term. However it could take months or years before a reversal in the price trend occurs. This bearish outlook has a significant impact for long-term traders. The increased uncertainty and risks could send investors to other Investment vehicles, further weakening the market. A closer look Zoom in to see the current ascending wedged that we have been in since entering the pandemic in 2020. Ascending wedges indicate continuations or reversals of the trend. Based on the relatively small size of the wedge, it will likely be a similar sized measured move in either direction. If a catalyst appears with high market weakness it could trigger a panic selloff. Expect volatility in the short to mid-term. Chart Settings The charted data shown above dating back to 1994 is adjusted to follow the channel of the 100 year market data. TradingView will only display data to 1994. I'm unable to link the 100 year price chart, but it will show the channel aligning near the same points. Scale Price Chart Only - On Logarithmic - On This isn't absolutely accurate, but it shows obvious warning signs to help make better trading decisions.
AMEX:SPYShort
by tylerwitucki
6
BLACK SWAN PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WIG20This pessimistic scenario is based upon current state of healthcare services in Poland which were underfinanced for many years and have very limited resources in qualified personell and equipment. There is significant lack of nurses and doctors in Poland not mentioning available hospital beds which means the system is near its breaking point. Recents countrywide protests could lead to epidemic spread of Covid 19 infection which will soon paralyse healthcare sytem and force goverment to freeze everything.
GPW:FW20Z2020Short
by CashJohny
Black swan event. Indicies in freefall. Continuation in March?!Hello dear traders. Corona virus is hitting hard. Black swan event is in play. We might see the biggest shift of wealth in human history. Perhaps people will understand that our current financial system isn't the best and that it's time for a more stable and better form of currency. Bitcoin has not yet reached that point, but in a few years from now it will at least establish as -the- best peservation of wealth. Which by the way it actually is the best growing asset humanity has ever had. Now to my trade. I am short on DJ30 and DE30. Light blue doted line is my entry, which ofcourse is a bad entry. (We saw a really clear textbook jump of the 0.618 fib level - ofcourse it is institutional money taking out their gains of their shorts this week) Big red doted line is my stoploss. My entry on DE30 is @12076 I see DJ dropping till 21000 at least. We might get a pump next week since it's the start of the new month March. But this is the time for traders to act. Unfortunatly my entries are late, but I still think there is room to grow your portfolio. Until then. Health is more important than wealth.
UShort
by Juba1337