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Blackrock (NYSE: BLK) Spurring The ETF AdoptionIt’s been reported that BlackRock has engaged in preliminary discussions with Jane Street, Virtu Financial, Jump Trading, and Hudson River Trading, with regards to their potential involvement as market makers for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Amid the crypto crackdown, a BTC ETF, if approved, would open a new pathway for U.S.-based firms to get a piece of the crypto action – in a way that plays to their conventional strengths. Some of the world's largest market-making firms are in the mix to potentially provide liquidity for BlackRock's eagerly awaited bitcoin ETF if regulators approve the product, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Trading giants Jane Street, Virtu Financial, Jump Trading and Hudson River Trading have held talks with BlackRock about a market-making role, according to a BlackRock slide deck reviewed by the person familiar with the matter. Assuming the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approves some or all of the dozen or so applications for bitcoin ETFs (including the one from BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager), that would open a new pathway for U.S.-based firms to get a piece of the action in crypto – in a way that plays to their conventional strengths. Being a market-maker for ETFs, which trade on exchanges just like stocks, requires a level of sophistication and automation that only a relatively few companies can achieve. Market makers are vital to ETFs. They are responsible for creating and redeeming new shares of an ETF, a role designed to keep its price tethered to the price implied by the value of the ETF's holdings. One of the best examples of why such a create-and-redeem structure is important actually comes from crypto. Grayscale Investments offers a product called the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) whose price has over the past few years wandered dramatically far away from the billions of dollars worth of bitcoin (BTC) that it owns. Price Momentum BLK is trading near the bottom of its 52-week range and below its 200-day simple moving average.
NYSE:BLKLong
by DEXWireNews
Mastering the Bitcoin Boom: Diverse Investment PathsIn this idea, we will explore different ways to amplify gains in a Bitcoin Bul. We will look at potential advanced tactics to capture further returns. My assumption is that Bitcoin is already in a bull market; however, the concepts I will talk about here will be valuable regardless of when the bull market begins. Bitcoin will most likely outperform most crypto assets due to the regulatory uncertainty and the potential upcoming ETF, so we don't think it's worth holding most altcoins out there. Yet there are some exciting ways to bet on Bitcoin indirectly to try to capture further upside, including altcoins. To do that, we will first look at specific key parameters that can serve as clues as to what we should be looking for in the assets we want to bet on: A) The beneficiaries of ordinals and the usage of the Bitcoin BlockChain, B) Coins/Tokens with a lot of BTC on their Balance sheet, C) Companies with BTC on their Balance sheet, D) Platforms that give access to BTC trading, E) Companies waiting for their BTC to be returned. F) Those that will benefit from an ETF. 1) Bitcoin miners. If the Bitcoin blockchain sees high usage, fees will go up, and miners will profit massively. As BTC rallies, more and more people will want to use Ordinals and Inscriptions and look for new ways to use Bitcoin. Miners also have BTC on their balance sheets, so their value will appreciate even further. WGMI is an attractive ETF that someone could buy as a bet on Bitcoin Miners, which looks pretty bullish after a massive collapse in 2022. Most alt-layer 1 protocols are dead and aren't coming back. Currently, there aren't many Bitcoin Layer 2 protocols. The only ones are Stacks and Rootstock (STX and RIF), both looking decent vs BTC. b) Tezos, Lisk, and Eos have a ton of BTC on their balance sheet. Based on my calculations, their market caps are smaller than the value of the BTC they hold. If their teams decide to return some of that BTC to holders, the prices of those projects will skyrocket. All these projects that are in development for 5+ years but haven't gained any reactions. They are looking quite bearish, yet the lower their ratios vs BTC go, the more attractive they are as a speculative buy, as they could easily double or triple in value. c) Microstrategy's Market Cap is worth the same as all the BTC on its balance sheet. It's currently at a 500m loss from the purchases and has a ton of debt; however, if BTC rallies and Microstategy finds ways to build on Bitcoin, its stock price has no ceiling. It's like a leveraged Bitcoin play with no risk of being liquidated. d) Coinbase has seen its competition rekt. Bittrex gone. Binance US is out. Gemini is suffering and can't truly compete with Coinbase. Coinbase plans to expand abroad and even launch its Ethereum Layer 2 protocol. Most FUD around regulations has already been priced in, and any positive news will disproportionately affect the price. As the exchange will be used as the custody solution for Blackrock's ETF, it will directly benefit from the ETF, despite potentially fewer people trading Bitcoin on it. ARKK holds most of the stock's supply and is unlikely to sell soon. e) LEO - This is Bitfinex's exchange token. If and when the US gov will return to Bitfinex the BTC it got from the Bitfinex hack back in 2016, that BTC will be used to buy back LEO tokens. When the FBI caught the hackers in 2022, LEOBTC jumped 85% on the assumption that the coins would be given back. I believe that, eventually, these coins will be returned and that LEOBTC will trade near or even above its ATHs. From here, that means a 100% gain or more. f) GBTC - As mentioned several times in my previous ideas, I believe an ETF will be approved, or something else will occur that will close the current GBTC discount. GBTC is a Bitcoin Trust trading at a 35-40% discount to NAV. That means that if that GBTC starts trading to its actual NAV, it will go up 70-80% from here relative to Bitcoin.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinMacro
Solidifying 31.7k as prolonged support could trigger an invh&sWe can see that awhile back we formed a very subtle and tiny left shoulder to this potential pattern that most people may tend to overlook, and the rejection from our most recent high on bitcoin helped solidify a potential neckline for this currently speculative inverse head and shoulder pattern which then gave us the ability to make a measured move guesstimate for its breakout target, and it is quite staggering. From what I’m seeing here, if we were to maintain solidified support above this neckline for a prolonged period of time then it should trigger this pattern and give us the opportunity to reach a breakout target somewhere between 64k and 65k! This of course is the target we are giving when viewing this on the log scale shown here….when you switch it to linear the target you get is around 48k which I think currently is a much more practical target to shoot for than the 65k log chart target,however we may see both come to fruition before Q3 of next year. I anticipate the 48k target before Q2 of next year. I arbitrarily placed the dotted measured move breakout line at November 11th but there’s a chance it could breakup even sooner than that possibly the 29th of October even…also a chance the neckline could maintain resistance all the way well into december or perhaps even as long as ja unwary or February of next year. We must remember that there have been plenty of times in the past, especially during the sideways phase of the market where price can break above the neckline and then ultimately go back under it 2, 3, even 4 times before finally confirming the breakout of the pattern. Must remain patient and vigilant. As Larry Fink stated, many blackrock clients now view crypto as a flight to quality and the way the world is going, we may see people implement those flight plans sooner rather than later. *not financial advice*
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DrDovetail
Black rocks Bitcoin ETF SagaFact: The US Securities and Exchange Commission Will Not Appeal the Grayscale (GBTC) ETF Ruling A Bitcoin Trust is a financial vehicle where investors pool their funds to buy and hold Bitcoin. Bitcoin Trusts operate like a traditional investment and are traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) stock exchange. Bitcoin Trusts indirectly own Bitcoin through the trust’s holdings. Conversely, a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin and is traded on stock exchanges, just like a stock. ETF investors buy shares of the fund, which in turn owns Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETFs are more optimal because they directly own Bitcoin, and offer investors more liquidity and flexibility than Bitcoin Trusts. Grayscale runs the world’s largest Bitcoin Trust. However, Grayscale has been working to clear the “red tape” of switching from a Bitcoin Trust to an ETF for the past two years. Because the SEC did not act before the Friday deadline, the SEC will not appeal an August court loss over Grayscale’s ETF conversion application. In a statement to CoinDesk, a Grayscale spokeswoman said: “The Grayscale team remains operationally ready to convert GBTC to an ETF upon the SEC’s approval, and we look forward to sharing more information as soon as practicable.” Fiction: The SEC Approved Blackrock’s (BLK) Bitcoin ETF Early Monday morning, CoinTelegraph, one of crypto’s most followed news sites, tweeted news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission had approved Blackrock’s Ishares spot Bitcoin ETF. As a result, Bitcoin spiked to two-month highs and neared the psychologically important $30,000 level before reversing. However, there was one major problem – the tweet was a hoax. A few hours after sending Bitcoin soaring, CoinTelegraph retracted its tweet and said it was investigating why false news was spread. Meanwhile, Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, confirmed that the headline was false and said the Bitcoin application is still under review by the SEC.
NYSE:BLKLong
by DEXWireNews
BLK BlackRock Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BLK here: or ahead of the previous earnings: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BLK BlackRock prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 640usd strike price Puts with an expiration date of 2023-10-13, for a premium of approximately $10.80. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:BLKShort
by TopgOptions
1
BITCOIN SPOT ETF RUMOURS!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has spiked up by an enormous 2,090 PIPS (7.50%) in the last hourly candle, on the rumour that a Bitcoin Spot ETF application has been approved by the SEC. BlackRock has come out to deny it, calling it 'fake news'. Just like that market crashed back down & wiped out its 7.50% gain. In the process trapping a lot of new buyers, taking out sellers & liquidating them both in the process. Ask yourself, who gains at times like this? The average, everyday person? No. It's the governments & institutions who release these rumours, in order to screw the everyday investor who doesn't know how to professionally operate in the markets.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by BA_Investments
8K BTC MACRO Correction Potential 5050Every day the BTC chart begins to tell a story that only gets clearer by the day. When rich men have goods to sell they advertise and when assets have been distributed into primarily the hands of the public the public runs out of money and begins to sell. Given what I see on these charts I find it no coincidence that the richest institutions are magically bullish on crypto at high time frame resistance looking to load up for ETF’s. They are business men with goods to sell and the best for a reason. Time and price are currently balanced at only the 50% retrace level of our last bull run. If BTC rotates to the down side it will be balanced again at the outside edge of the red circle which also is a perfect correlation with a trend time cycle and typical oscillations of the Fibonacci number ratios people like to trade so frequently. For the first time BTC finds it’s self with monthly divergence on both rsi’s and money flow. Also for the first time has a macro double top followed by its first engulfing candle on a yearly chart. Finally has diminishing returns at exactly 15 degrees of time vs price and on its last one before going flat. Until it's invalidated by braking our current level and holds it what is on this chart will be the main operating principle at which I trade by moving forward from today until we break the high and it is invalidated or we reach out final low. IF we don’t brake above and retest I will be targeting 8k BTC and covering for a massive rally at 50% of the way down. Entry will be brake of trend. Institutions are after your stacks and have more than enough money to short everybody and their brother out of the market and are advertising that you should buy..... THEY HAVE GOODS TO SELL Currently NEUTRAL but heavily favoring this model the more time that passes without braking this level. Trade Well. Invalidation is brake above and retest current level.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Degen-Dynasty
11
Bitcoin made complexAs someone who has been around Bitcoin a long time, I find it interesting to see people try and find their own "edge" from how they utilise on-chain metrics, to liquidity maps and sometimes even deeper with things like the energy consumption or BTC mined. The last couple, most recent years - Bitcoin has been moving towards it's institutional position and that has been something incredible to watch first hand as it slowly unfurled. The logic can be simplified and following the larger players and their intentions can be very lucrative. The major issue with statistics and metrics is that these can also be spoofed, manipulated and written in ways favourable to the cause. **Caveat - not always, but can be ** What gets me is when a local 'influencer' comes up with why Bitcoin will ping some arbitrary figure just because it sounds rounded. I haven't once heard someone say, it's likely to hit $237,500 followed by some logical argument. Here's some simple logic. Bitcoin's market cap. At $69,000 we saw a cap of 1.3T roughly. To obtain this number you can do the math by knowing how many coins in circulation and times that by the price. This of course will be ever changing, new addresses and price fluctuations coupled with more coins until 21m is hit. So you can be rough on your calculations without stressing. Here is a snapshot of the coins in circulation Take this now with the current price lingering around $27,000 you have a market cap. Why does this matter? Well, it doesn't really, other than to guestimate what kind of additional money in-flows would be required to make Bitcoin as valuable as the influencers claim. Let's use the current number 19,491,306 Times that by the price claimed and you can guestimate a Market Cap. 19 million, 491 thousand, 3 hundred and 6 times $250,000 (often used figure) The question then becomes - where does the additional money come from? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this image, you can see the steady growth of the tokens/coins in circulation Or here the transactions per day. How about the energy consumption? You see, none of this actually matters when analysing the charts. Instead, understanding the picture painted by the larger players in the game, can give you hints as to where and why next. You take the snapshot of the COT (Commitment of Traders) report. This has allowed me to assess every major move in the Bitcoin chart, the logic for each swing is smacking you square in the face. These moves are not as random as you think. The market is simply an algorithm seeking liquidity. Nothing more complex than that. Instead these clowns come up with figures like $250,000 and quotes like 98k next month and 135k the month after, without any logic or rational as to how or where the money is coming from. Instead of moving up to $135,000 the price drops to $15,500 that's an awful lot to be wrong. Why? ZERO logic or clue as to what actually moves the market. Imagine selling at the top?! If the smiley laughing emoji hadn't have been used, it could have been one awesome call! Instead of looking in the wrong places, learn to understand where and why. Here's another interesting topic on this point. Anyways, enjoy the rest of your week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
BLACKROCK, Decisive Formation Looking For Further Confirmation!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about BLK ( BLACKROCK ) 4-hour timeframe perspective, the recent events, the current formation building, what we can expect the next times, what can happen after confirmation and how to handle the situation sufficiently. The stock has recovered from the major corona-lows seen this year with some decent but weak up-moves and now trading above the prior established all-time-high-condition where it is building some decisive price-action important for further conclusions, in this case, I detected some important signals which can determine further outcomes of this stock. Looking at my chart you can watch there that the stock is forming a huge rising-wedge-formation with the upper and lower boundary marked in blue which it touched already several times to form a coherent wave count with the final wave E already established and now showing more declines in the short-term firstly which can spring up into the middle and then longer timeframe perspectives. What is also matching here is the declining momentum you can watch marked in red normally indicating a reversal into the other direction, overall the stock is showing up some solid signals to come up with increased bearish selling pressure the next time. When the stock moves on to confirm below the lower boundary which is a likely scenario, there is some local support in this area in which the stock can bounce to confirm the lower boundary rightly as it is seen in my chart marked with the confirmational. When the stock confirms the lower boundary and moves on downward below the 60-EMA in black it will continue till there is support found which can reverse the perspective and stabilize the situation which is the 200-EMA support marked in green where the stock can bounce to form a reversal. The wedge can be traded either aggressively with immediate entry or conservative with entry after confirmation. In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, support for more market insight and all the best my friends. Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market.
NYSE:BLK
by VincePrince
1
Correlation in the marketMarket correlation in the financial space that plays a crucial role in investment strategies, risk management, and portfolio diversification. It refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of different financial instruments move in relation to each other. Investors and traders use correlation analysis to make informed decisions about asset allocation and to manage risk effectively. Understanding Correlation Correlation is measured on a scale from -1 to +1 Positive Correlation equals two financial instruments have a positive correlation, it means they tend to move in the same direction. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to increase as well. A positive correlation of 1 indicates a perfect positive relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak positive relationship. Negative Correlation Conversely, is when two financial instruments have a negative correlation, it means they move in opposite directions. If one instrument's price or return increases, the other is likely to decrease. A negative correlation of -1 indicates a perfect negative relationship, while a value close to 0 signifies a weak negative relationship. No Correlation : When the correlation between two financial instruments is zero, there is no discernible relationship between their movements. Changes in one instrument's price or return have no bearing on the other. Importance of Market Correlation Market correlation is essential for several reasons: Diversification: Investors use correlation analysis to build diversified portfolios. By combining assets with low or negative correlations, they can reduce the overall risk of their portfolio. When one asset performs poorly, another may perform well, helping to mitigate losses. Risk Management: Understanding how different instruments correlate can help investors assess the risk associated with their investments. If a portfolio is heavily concentrated in assets with high positive correlations, it may be more vulnerable to market volatility. Trading Strategies: Traders use correlation analysis to develop trading strategies. For example, pairs trading involves taking long and short positions in two correlated assets with the expectation that the spread between them will narrow or widen. Asset Allocation: Asset managers consider market correlations when deciding how to allocate resources across various asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate, etc.). A well-balanced allocation can enhance long-term returns while managing risk. Correlation Among Different Instruments Market correlation extends to various financial instruments, including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and more. Here are a few examples: Stocks: Correlation among individual stocks can vary widely. Stocks within the same industry or sector often have a positive correlation due to common market influences. However, stocks from different sectors may have lower correlations or even negative correlations. Bonds: Correlations among bonds depend on factors such as interest rates, credit quality, and maturity. For instance, long-term government bonds tend to have a negative correlation with equities, making them attractive for diversification. Commodities: The correlation among commodities can be influenced by factors like supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and economic conditions. For instance, gold is often negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar. Currencies: Currency pairs exhibit different correlation patterns. For example, EUR/USD and USD/JPY often have negative correlations because the U.S. dollar is on the opposite side of these pairs. OK, so what does correlation look like in real terms? Have you ever noticed that when a certain currency pair rises, another currency pair falls? This is correlation. I recently wrote an article here on TradingView around the "whole Economy" DXY is a great indicator for many instruments including Gold, SPX and of course Bitcoin. In that article I explained how I rise in DXY would trigger the drop in Gold, we went from 1985 to 1915. Interesting facts. Canadian dollar has the highest correlation with crude oil due to the significant proportion of Canada's GDP reliant on oil. While historically AUD has a strong relationship with gold. So........ Where does market correlation and Blackrock Bitcoin ETF fit in? First, let's use Blackrocks own definition of an ETF. (available directly from their site) An exchange traded fund (ETF) is an investment fund that invests in a basket of stocks, bonds, or other assets. ETFs are traded on a stock exchange, just like stocks. Investors are drawn to ETFs because of their low price, tax efficiency and ease of trading. ETFs seek to provide the performance of a specified index, such as the S&P 500, and typically have low fees. Like mutual funds, ETFs offer investors diversified exposure to a portfolio of securities, such as stocks, bonds, commodities and real estate. ETFs are popular because of their low fees, tax efficiency, liquidity and transparency. Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've read countless posts on social media recently claiming Blackrock approval would bring $15 Trillion into Bitcoin, read the above note from their own website "Since the first ETF was launched in 1993, the ETF industry has grown substantially, with more than $3 trillion now invested in ETFs. So let's assume they own the whole market and all $3 Trillion went directly into the Blackrock ETF. We have to remember the market cap at $69,000 was a little over $3 Trillion. This is far short of $1million a coin price predictions based purely off an ETF approval. Now to my point. ETF market correlation refers to the degree to which the prices or returns of ETFs correspond to the movements of their underlying assets or benchmarks. This correlation can have significant implications for investors. ETFs are often used for portfolio diversification. Understanding the correlation between ETFs and their underlying assets helps investors assess the effectiveness of their diversification strategy. Low-correlation ETFs can provide better risk reduction benefits when added to a portfolio. Hmmmm... Correlation can change based on market conditions. During periods of economic stress or heightened volatility, correlations between assets may increase as investors seek refuge in more defensive assets, potentially leading to correlations converging. The composition of an ETF's underlying assets or securities matters. For instance, a sector-specific ETF may have a high correlation with the performance of stocks within that sector. Bitcoin does not have the "stock" backing, so this will be done via the OTC Bitcoin price. Which then brings us to the ability to use inverse or leveraged ETFs to hedge against market downturns or amplify returns during bullish trends. In Blackrock's case, it is more likely a tactical Allocation aimed to adjust portfolio allocations and enter the crypto space. Remember, this happened. It's not a negative, these guys will accumulate for the long run and not expect things like $250,000 Bitcoin by Christmas. Valkyrie's ETF. Just remember, the professionals make money for a living. It's not as correlated as you might have thought in the sense of "Blackrock in, retail traders get rich". Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
4
Bitcoin ETF Launch: New Bull Run? 🚀📈 The Potential Impact of Bitcoin ETF Launch: A Long-Term Bull Run? 🚀📈 Hello, crypto enthusiasts! Today, let's explore the exciting prospect of a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) launch and how it could potentially set the stage for a long-term bull run, drawing parallels with the impact of gold ETFs in 2004. 📊 ETFs: ETFs are investment funds that track the performance of a specific asset or group of assets. A Bitcoin ETF would enable investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price movements without holding the cryptocurrency directly. 📈 Historical Precedent: To understand the potential impact of a Bitcoin ETF, we can look back at the launch of gold ETFs in 2004. They provided an accessible way for investors to buy into gold, significantly boosting gold's price and leading to a prolonged bull market. 🚀 Potential Scenarios: If a Bitcoin ETF were to launch, several scenarios could unfold. It could attract a wave of institutional and retail investors looking to diversify their portfolios, potentially driving up demand and prices. 🌟 Long-Term Bull Run: Similar to gold, the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF might pave the way for a long-term bull run. Increased mainstream adoption and acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset could be on the horizon. 🔮 The Future Awaits: It's essential to remember that markets are influenced by a multitude of factors, and nothing is guaranteed. While a Bitcoin ETF launch could be a catalyst, thorough research and risk management remain crucial. In conclusion, the potential launch of a Bitcoin ETF has garnered significant attention, and its impact could be akin to the transformative effect of gold ETFs. If history is any indication, we might be on the cusp of an exciting era for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Stay informed, stay prepared, and remember – the crypto landscape is ever-evolving, presenting both challenges and opportunities! 🌐🚀
INDEX:BTCUSD
by AlexWhale
We Have Our Answer!Traders, A few posts ago, you will see that (2) two gaps were being focused on. The question was posed about which might be filled first. Many of my followers understand that my bias was to the upside gap being filled first. Thanks to the Blackrock ETF approval, this has occurred. And, as I stated in my video yesterday, I have unloaded 50% of ALL my positions (alts included), taken profits, and moved my stops up to break even. I will let the remainder ride for now and hopefully take the rest off at the 50 day ma of the SPOT BTC chart which intersect exactly with the bottom of that important support (now resistance) which I talked about in yesterday's video at 28,750. If we don't hit that and I get stopped out instead, no issue cuz I move all my stops to break even and will take no loss now. There still remain (2) two unfilled gaps: one at 20,290 from March of this year and one at 35,180 from May of last year. I still believe both will be filled soon. Stay tuned for more on this unfolding price action as, through charting research, I hope to gain a better grasp on how it will go. Stew
CME:BTC1!Long
by stewdamus
Against the grain - BitcoinControversial. People don't like it when opinions don't align with their own beliefs. It's human nature, however - even when the obvious is smacking them in the face, they still want to reinforce and find support for what is inevitably wrong. I've talked before about the possibility of Government or WEF being behind Bitcoin. It would not surprise me one bit. It's an immutable ledger and all of the 3 letter agencies around the globe can't find the inventor... Secondly, people believe it to stand for freedom. Yet with the KYC and AML regulations, it takes nearly as much paperwork to own Bitcoin as it does to buy a house. (nearly) It's not like the FBI can seize it - oh wait, yes they can. Its not like China can limit the use, hmmm OK maybe. Binance will never stop people from withdrawing their own funds. Oh yeah that too. The issue is for me, is - CLEARLY there is an opportunity, even for me one of the lucky ones, been a Bitcoiner a long, long time. What does it need to thrive? well, almost the opposite of the wild west mentality seen today. Gone are the days where average Joe can own a few thousand coins. it's more likely that they will be spending around $5,000. Some of course more, a lot will have less to invest. Volatility means the wild price swings can make it profitable whilst using leverage. But to make it grow, it needs stability. Regulation will assist to attract larger operators. On that note - larger players does not always mean price goes up. A few days later, Valkyrie joins the stage. Now this is actually a good thing, these types of investors have a 15 year fund vision usually. So it doesn't mean - they join the party and the price sky rockets tomorrow. Clearly... The issue right now is we have Mooon Cloooowns attending these blockchain/crypto conferences, it just shows how immature the market is currently. These ETF's are not designed for retail to make a fortune, their there for the Elite to take more from retail. You have muppets calling for 100k on every post. Sheep following along, just as I said at the top of this article. They want to reinforce their own WRONG belief. Or maybe its sympathy, "someone else knows how I feel, we can relate"? I don't know what it is to be honest, but it's clearly not healthy or profitable. The one thing I have said time and time again, is the beauty of Bitcoin becoming institutionalised is that it makes it less volatile and easier to read and analyse. The more regulation and solid foundation it has, the more profitable for day trading it becomes. Of course, it is not what the average retailer wants to hear trading their micro account and hoping to become a millionaire in one trade. But for Bitcoin to move beyond current highs and into the 100k level or more, it needs to establish a good foothold of it's current accumulation. I saw a post yesterday saying 2025 forecast price $925,000 - Now to give that some real perspective. At it's current All Time High, it had a market cap of $1.3 Trillion What kind of market cap would you get with a price of $925,000 per coin? Do the math and help me understand where the additional several TRILLION comes from... OK so now for some logic. People like Saylor have made publicly their position. Post available here So of course, with that much weight other institutional players will know the fair value levels without the research. Price can gravitate towards these levels allowing the accumulation weighted average to stand out like a sore thumb! Back in the day, I got introduced to Bitcoin, not as a trader but as a tech investor. Needless to say, I had a nice little run. Unfortunately as a trader I wasn't able to post due to some money management non disclosures around tech investments made. So it wasn't until the obligations passed I could post on this topic publicly. The obvious signs were clear from the migration from a fun thing and toes in the water of many angels and VC's - into a more tradable asset class. Fast forward a little and the re-accumulation only highlighted the involvement of much, much larger operators. I talked about this on the @TradingView show with Stefan and how the composite man plays his part in the more established markets. During the move, the re-accumulation showed signs of the control and the future direction as well as give a clear indication as to where the cap would likely be. Of course, it played out as expected and against popular belief we were off to the moon. I shared the logic for the drop. This was the first set of signs that Bitcoin was here to stay and becoming more interesting with each passing swing. As we dropped to the target level. Yes that too. Marked up months in advance... The next move up was ugly, so - what did that mean? Well, it simply meant again, we were not likely to see 100k or 250k or some arbitrary figure plucked out of the sky by people who have no clue how to do proper analysis. CASE IN POINT. We could then anticipate another capped move up, seeking liquidity. I shared why this would be the case back in August before the November drop. The expectation was for the price to drop down 3-4 in Elliott Wave terms and rise 4-5 before dropping on that liquidity grab above the old highs. Then of course, we did just that. Some other obvious moves started to appear in the price action and again just reinforces the institutional control of the Bitcoin price. So what is the expectation, as I have said in most of my recent Tradingview streams. It's a larger scale accumulation. For the price to break above All Time Highs, it needs to garner it's position. The higher the price you expect, the longer sideways we are likely to go. (although it's not as simple as that). I get sick and tired of price predications like 100k next week or 250k EOY. Don't fall for the BS. Take your time and do your own due diligence. Anyways, over & out. Take it easy! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
Conspiracy or something moreI wanted to post this post to get comments and thoughts of others here. Have you ever seen the film "In Time" ?? Imagine you switch out the countdown timer for Bitcoin, after all it won't be long and everyone can have them embedded under the skin. If you haven't seen the film, here's a CHATGPT explanation summary. OK so what does this have to do with trading or Bitcoin? Blackrock and the ETF's is a big play for Bitcoin, but maybe not in the way majority of retail seem to think it is. When you really stop to think - let me know your thoughts. Also latest Tradingview stream earlier. www.tradingview.com Have a good one guys! Well, as a long time cyber security investor (patents in the space also) I find it hard to believe the powers that be, can't seem to figure out one who created it and two how to regulate it and other crypto. It's a bit odd given it's an immutable ledger tech. So What I wanted to see, is what other people think - both good and bad, pros or cons, ups and downs?
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
15
STX 🔋👽 -Charged for 0.77 Or Higher?STX IS OINE OF MY FAVORITES..YOU HEARD BEFORE: One of my favorites and a reliable choice for a very good 3 successful trades. If you are not aware of what STACKS is you should def look into it as it has immense potential going forward. STX is a Bitcoin layer for smart contracts What Is Stacks (STX)? Stacks is a Bitcoin Layer for smart contracts; it enables smart contracts and decentralized applications to use Bitcoin as an asset and settle transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain. Bitcoin is the largest, most valuable, and most durable decentralized asset. The Stacks layer unlocks $500B in BTC capital using the Bitcoin L1 as settlement for decentralized applications. Stacks has knowledge of the full Bitcoin state, thanks to its Proof of Transfer consensus and Clarity language, enabling it to read from Bitcoin at any time. All transactions on the Stacks layer are automatically hashed and settled on the Bitcoin L1. Stacks blocks are secured by 100% Bitcoin hashpower. In order to re-order Stacks blocks/transactions, an attacker would have to reorg Bitcoin. My spot holding have grown from 20 cents to almost x5 and the leveraged trades went even better... Only Bullish on this one as i see 10-18 range for the next 2 years. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR Links: Ordinals and STX Among Projected Beneficiaries of BlackRock ETF coinedition.com
Long
by FX_Professor
2
When Alt season? When moon? When rocket emojis?We are yet to see first, a pullback by BTC coupled with stock market correction and destruction of Alts. Capitulation by both price and time. Notice in prior cycle with 714 days of red and current 574 days of red at most recent bottom of TOTAL3. NOTE: 2020 Feb-March has been omitted as a black swan (anomaly) Recession is looming and true scale to be surfaced. Bankruptcies and commercial real estate pain needs to pass. FED cannot pre-maturely ease monetary policy otherwise a wage-price spiral is at risk and unraveling of inflation expectation demands. I've mentioned Blackrock ETD and it's CEO going on CNBC, the point I'll re-iterate is that if markets are now bullish as they make it seem, why haven't we broke past $32k Bitcoin decisively yet? Insert meme: "IT'S A TRAP!"
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Short
by Muri001
1
Smart money bear trap thesis?Tags: Blackrock Bitcoin ETF, Inflation, PCE, FED, Wage-price spiral, BTC.D, ETH/BTC Could we be mimicking 1970's market? So last PCI reading came 3% but core CPI is still high and Core PCE (FED's preferred inflation measure) has been sticky in 4.5% area for past several months. Whilst inflation expectations have been tamed by FEDs continued "We remain focused on getting inflation back to 2%." This message must be maintained and a recession is inevitable. Look at 10Y3M yields and 10Y2Y bond yields. We have real pain yet to come. So headline inflation is being curved down and celebrated however the next step is the risk of a wage-price spiral which is being priced in and expected to also not become a threat once unemployment rises but the job markets are remaining resilient. Therefore, the FED will hold interest rates at 5.25-5.50 bps until inflation is confidently curbed. We have not yet seen fear in markets from recessionary risks. Everyone is thinking it will be a mild one however the future is hard to foresee and there are underlying financial risks not in the limelight yet. Now, you have the market context we shall dive into the charts!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by Muri001
1
BITCOIN TO $300,000 BY SEPT 2025Bitcoin LOG Cheat Sheet! Vertical Colors. Orange = Halving Green = Bullish Highs Red = Bearish Lows This is an estimate on the trajectory of a price forecast. Nobody can predict the future, and charting isn’t guaranteed that the past helps predict the future. This is all about what ifs. Could the next alltime high be $300,000 by September 2025? This is just perspective. Stretch the dates to see the dates, again its based on past history. No guarantee.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn2208604
2
COIN H&S Breakout ContinuesCoinbase continues to gain after breaking up and out of the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern, price is up +10% today - trade was initiated last week upon seeing the inverse head and shoulders breakout. Due to the pop in price today I've raised my stop-loss level to $85.75 in case price reverses on profit taking. This stop level ensures that I exit the trade with a gain if price reverses, while at the same time leaves some room for volatility if price begins to fluctuate. Lower PPO and TDI indicators are still reading bullish, but the green RSI line of the TDI indicator is now above the 80 level which is considered overbought meaning a correction to the downside can be expected. Buy Price: $79.21 Stop-Loss: $85.75 Take Profit: $136-ish Gain if I get stopped out at $85.75: +8.2% Gain if price reaches take-profit level: +71% This stop level will remain adaptive to price movement, price has gained another 3% in the few minutes it took me to write this and COIN is now up +13% on the day.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by PrepForProfit
25