Against the grain - BitcoinControversial.
People don't like it when opinions don't align with their own beliefs. It's human nature, however - even when the obvious is smacking them in the face, they still want to reinforce and find support for what is inevitably wrong.
I've talked before about the possibility of Government or WEF being behind Bitcoin. It would not surprise me one bit. It's an immutable ledger and all of the 3 letter agencies around the globe can't find the inventor...
Secondly, people believe it to stand for freedom. Yet with the KYC and AML regulations, it takes nearly as much paperwork to own Bitcoin as it does to buy a house. (nearly) It's not like the FBI can seize it - oh wait, yes they can. Its not like China can limit the use, hmmm OK maybe. Binance will never stop people from withdrawing their own funds. Oh yeah that too.
The issue is for me, is - CLEARLY there is an opportunity, even for me one of the lucky ones, been a Bitcoiner a long, long time.
What does it need to thrive? well, almost the opposite of the wild west mentality seen today. Gone are the days where average Joe can own a few thousand coins. it's more likely that they will be spending around $5,000. Some of course more, a lot will have less to invest. Volatility means the wild price swings can make it profitable whilst using leverage. But to make it grow, it needs stability. Regulation will assist to attract larger operators.
On that note - larger players does not always mean price goes up.
A few days later, Valkyrie joins the stage.
Now this is actually a good thing, these types of investors have a 15 year fund vision usually. So it doesn't mean - they join the party and the price sky rockets tomorrow. Clearly...
The issue right now is we have Mooon Cloooowns attending these blockchain/crypto conferences, it just shows how immature the market is currently. These ETF's are not designed for retail to make a fortune, their there for the Elite to take more from retail.
You have muppets calling for 100k on every post.
Sheep following along, just as I said at the top of this article. They want to reinforce their own WRONG belief. Or maybe its sympathy, "someone else knows how I feel, we can relate"? I don't know what it is to be honest, but it's clearly not healthy or profitable.
The one thing I have said time and time again, is the beauty of Bitcoin becoming institutionalised is that it makes it less volatile and easier to read and analyse. The more regulation and solid foundation it has, the more profitable for day trading it becomes. Of course, it is not what the average retailer wants to hear trading their micro account and hoping to become a millionaire in one trade. But for Bitcoin to move beyond current highs and into the 100k level or more, it needs to establish a good foothold of it's current accumulation.
I saw a post yesterday saying 2025 forecast price $925,000 - Now to give that some real perspective.
At it's current All Time High, it had a market cap of $1.3 Trillion
What kind of market cap would you get with a price of $925,000 per coin? Do the math and help me understand where the additional several TRILLION comes from...
OK so now for some logic.
People like Saylor have made publicly their position.
Post available here
So of course, with that much weight other institutional players will know the fair value levels without the research. Price can gravitate towards these levels allowing the accumulation weighted average to stand out like a sore thumb!
Back in the day, I got introduced to Bitcoin, not as a trader but as a tech investor. Needless to say, I had a nice little run. Unfortunately as a trader I wasn't able to post due to some money management non disclosures around tech investments made. So it wasn't until the obligations passed I could post on this topic publicly.
The obvious signs were clear from the migration from a fun thing and toes in the water of many angels and VC's - into a more tradable asset class.
Fast forward a little and the re-accumulation only highlighted the involvement of much, much larger operators.
I talked about this on the @TradingView show with Stefan and how the composite man plays his part in the more established markets.
During the move, the re-accumulation showed signs of the control and the future direction as well as give a clear indication as to where the cap would likely be.
Of course, it played out as expected and against popular belief we were off to the moon. I shared the logic for the drop.
This was the first set of signs that Bitcoin was here to stay and becoming more interesting with each passing swing.
As we dropped to the target level. Yes that too.
Marked up months in advance...
The next move up was ugly, so - what did that mean?
Well, it simply meant again, we were not likely to see 100k or 250k or some arbitrary figure plucked out of the sky by people who have no clue how to do proper analysis.
CASE IN POINT.
We could then anticipate another capped move up, seeking liquidity.
I shared why this would be the case back in August before the November drop.
The expectation was for the price to drop down 3-4 in Elliott Wave terms and rise 4-5 before dropping on that liquidity grab above the old highs.
Then of course, we did just that.
Some other obvious moves started to appear in the price action and again just reinforces the institutional control of the Bitcoin price.
So what is the expectation, as I have said in most of my recent Tradingview streams. It's a larger scale accumulation. For the price to break above All Time Highs, it needs to garner it's position. The higher the price you expect, the longer sideways we are likely to go. (although it's not as simple as that).
I get sick and tired of price predications like 100k next week or 250k EOY.
Don't fall for the BS. Take your time and do your own due diligence.
Anyways, over & out.
Take it easy!
Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
