Blockchain
Possible Double Top for LUNALUNA/USD
Bearish Case
- Double Top formed and retested at $6.42 (0.236 fib retrace)
- Exaggerated Bearish Divergence on the 1hr
- Testing to break down of the ascending support line
- MACD on the 4hr looks to be turning bearish
Target Zone
- $4.888 (0.5 fib retrace)
- $4.202 (0.618 fib retrace)
- $1.99 (full retrace) given it is a double top
Bullish Case
- Stays within the supporting trend line and breaks the ascending triangle
Thoughts?
Shorting BTC againIn our last Bitcoin analysis with our TTW (trend-time-weight) system, we clearly positioned our portfolios for a very likely steady decline in the value of BTC with a target of $20K.
Now that we are here, BTC is in a stage 4 (bearish), entering the 210 MA average on the weekly chart (the reference for a bearish market in the mid and long run). Under no circumstances should we find buying opportunities right now if an active trading approach is implemented, only if a passive approach is sought.
Since early summer, BTC has been at a support which, if breached to the downside, the token could reach $11K-$9K levels. The RSI on the weekly chart is clearly bearish, at minus 34, and the MACD is clearly showing a downtrend that we could take advantage of with a quantitative trend-following strategy.
The probability of a trend reversal is actually very small in percentage terms, because the trend should first go through a stage 1, and then stage 2, but now it is still in stage 4, and it is quite a long way off (6-12 months, at least).
In terms of all our chartist, space-temporal, fundamental, economic and manipulative analysis, the most likely scenario is a downtrend to around $11,000 in the next few months.
Of course, we never know the future, and we are also prepared for a bullish pullback even if it is a very unlikely scenario, but professionally I would not see BTC as an interesting buy until the token reaches a value of around $30 000.
Strategy:
- Sell Stop: 16.500.
- 1st Stop Loss (0.25% of our portfolio value): 20.100.
- 2nd Stop Loss (0.5% of the value of our portfolio): 22.000
- 1st Take Profit (50% out): 11.000
- 2nd Take Profit (50% out): 9.000
- Margin requirements, swaps, spreads, execution model..: Depending on the derivatives exchange you use.
Will Litecoin Find Support?Litecoin gave up the $60's, extending as high as $66.94, before crashing back down to support again in the $50's. We broke through several key levels after global markets sold off following red hot US inflation data, which impacted nearly every market including crypto. Litecoin is currently finding support at $55.84, but appears to be hanging on by a thread. If this level gives, then we will have support again in the lower $50 handle at $51.92 namely.
'The Merge' Hangover Slams EthereumEthereum has dumped, despite the fact that the long awaited 'merge' finally happened yesterday. We have been warning you not to get too excited over this and that it would probably end up in a pump and dump. As predicted, we got slammed back to the $1400's from just below $1800. The selloff coincided nicely with a tanking stock market, in addition to gold, and bonds. We appear to be seeing strong support at $1424, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. Our next level of support below is $1341.
Bitcoin Gives Up the $20K'sBitcoin has shown sustained weakeness, edging down, giving up the $20K's. We are finding support at the next level below at $19.5K. Several green triangles on the KRI are suggesting support here. If $19.5K does not hold then we will likely see further support at $18.6K, a longstanding level that has held strong through the toughest of markets. If we are somehow able to rally, we must first solidify $20K before establishing higher levels.
Can Litecoin Hold $60?Litecoin is holding its range after testing and rejecting higher levels in the $60's after US inflation data came in unexpectedly hot. We are currently wavering about the $60 mark, with some volatility above and below. We do not seem to even have the strength to test $61.75 the next level above, let alone make a run for $64.37 again. If we fall further then $55.84 is sure to provide support.
How Will 'The Merge' Impact Ethereum?As predicted yesterday, Ethereum saw great support at $1547, confirmed by multiple green triangles on the KRI. We are currently ranging, bouncing back and forth between this level and $1653. Recall that $1653 is the first of a series of resistance levels which extend through the $1700's. These are sure to provide resistance unless serious momentum comes through. We are seeing the anticipated lack of enthusiasm over 'the merge' which happened about 4 hours ago at the time of this writing.
Bitcoin Holds $20KBitcoin has edged lower, but is finding good support around $20K. We gave up $20.7K entirely, but are holding just above $19.5K. A wick tested this level and it held strong. Green triangles on the KRI further confirm the support here. If we are able to pivot, then $20.7K is almost sure to provide prohibitive resistance. If current levels break, then we will likely see support at $18.6K.
Litecoin Rejects Higher LevelsLitecoin showed real promise of regaining the $60's or pressing higher. We spiked up to $66.96, achieving yet another level higher than $64.37, our previous target. However we rejected this level hard, and smashed through $64.37 back to the base of support at $60. Currently we are clinging onto $60 for dear live, with the price at the time of this writing sitting about $59.47 or so. If this does not hold then $55.84 should provide support. If not, we expect the base of the $50's to hold as a floor for now.
Ethereum Dumps As CPI Comes in HotEthereum was trekking in the $1700's yesterday, after making an attempt for $1800, which failed earlier this week. After CPI data came in, it dumped back down to $1547, which was our target from yesterday. We are currently finding good support there, but if not, $1424 is the next level down. If we are able to pivot we will face immediate resistance from $1653, and a cluster of levels in the $1700's. We warned you not to get too excited about 'the merge', which some thought would take ETH back to $2K or higher, and this is exactly why.
How Will CPI and the Fed Impact the Crypto Market?Bitcoin was edging higher, hoping that a reasonable CPI print yesterday would give risk on assets the green light to rally. Unfortunately, CPI came in red hot, suggesting that the Fed will double down their tightening efforts in order to get it under control. Bitcoin rejected $22.4K, and smashed through $20.7K. Currently we are clinging to support at $20K with $19.5K the next level to provide support. It will take some time for BTC to recover from this, but we must break through $22.4K before considering higher levels.
September 14 BTCUSD BingX Chart Analysis and Today's HeadlineBingX’s Bitcoin Chart
According to CoinShare, digital asset investment products saw outflows totalling US$63m, the 5th consecutive week of outflows. Bitcoin is down 8.75% over the last 24 hours and fell to an intraday low of $19,860.82. The largest cryptocurrency plummeted alongside the traditional equity market as the U.S core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased more than expected, rising to 6.3% from 5.9% in July. This suggests that the Fed will stick to its aggressive hiking plans and keep monetary policy restrictive for longer-than-expected. FedWatchTool shows that the probability of the Fed raising rates by 100 basis points next week has been significantly increased to 38%. If this happens, the BTC/USDT pair could decline further.
Today’s Cryptocurrency Headline
KKR Makes Its PE Fund Accessible to Individuals via Blockchain
Private equity giant KKR, which had $471 billion in assets under management at the end of 2021, will offer its Health Care Strategic Growth Fund on Avalanche through a partnership with Securitize. Qualified investors (with $5 million in investable assets) will be able to invest in KKR's health-care fund through a tokenized feeder fund on the Avalanche blockchain after setting up an account with Securitize and going through KYC and AML accreditation. After one year of holding, investors will be able to sell it to other qualified investors on a secondary market managed by Securitize.
Disclaimer: BingX does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company. BingX is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in the article.
Bitcoin Testing Key Resistance LevelBitcoin is edging higher, but is facing stiff resistance at $22.4K, the level we identified yesterday. We are seeing steep resistance here confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still bullish, but may not register enough momentum to suggest the divergence needed to break through. If we do, then $23.9K is the next target. If we reject current levels, we should see support at $20.7K.
Can Ethereum Hold the $1700's?Ethereum made a run for $1800, falling just short of this target, and careening through several levels of support below. We have broken into that cluster of levels in the mid $1700's that we have discussed many times, and appear to be finding support just above $1653, a familiar level tested by ETH from above and below many times as of late. This level should continue to provide support, but if not, then $1547 should provide further support if we break through. If we are able to pivot, we will see if ETH has enough momentum to break through to our target of $1821, but we will need to see more momentum come through.
Litecoin Attempts to Find Value in the $60'sLitecoin has edged down from $64.37, our target. We have found support just below $61.75, holding strong in the $60's for now. We are currently seeing a nice pivot back through $61.75, and may be forming value between $60 and $64.37. Watch for LTC to range in the price area.
September 13 BTCUSD BingX Chart Analysis and Today's HeadlineBingX’s Bitcoin Chart
According to Glassnode, the total value in the ETH 2.0 deposit contract reached an ATH of 13,638,560 ETH. Bitcoin is up 2.55% over the last 24 hours and rose to an intraday high of $22,494.42. The cryptocurrency market and the traditional equity market have rallied since 09 Sept, suggesting that the investors believe the inflation has peaked, and the market has priced in the possible 75 basis point hike in the next FOMC meeting. The U.S. August consumer price index (CPI) will be released today at 12:30 UTC, and the market expects August CPI (YoY) declines to 8.1% from the previous 8.5%. If this happens, the BTC/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $25,211. Conversely, if the figure is worse than the expectation, the recent rally could be ended.
Today’s Cryptocurrency Headline
Ethereum Completes Last Shadow Fork
Ethereum research and engineering firm Nethermind has confirmed that the transition in Mainnet-Shadowfork-13 — the last shadow fork — was successful, indicating that the network is ready to migrate to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism. Testnets allow Ethereum developers to practice functions such as running nodes, deploying contracts, and testing infrastructure. Thus, shadow forks allow developers to evaluate network upgrades before they happen. As part of the upgrade, the community needs to update the Ethereum client and run a combination of execution and consensus layers.
Disclaimer: BingX does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to the company. BingX is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in the article.
Litecoin Hits Our Target!Litecoin caught a strong burst of momentum, which broke through our level at $61.75. This was a strong upper bound for Litecoin for a while, and was providing significant resistance. We saw enough momentum to hit the next target of $64.37. We are seeing a slight retracement after hitting this level, with strong support at $61.75. If things turn south there is a vacuum zone back to $55.84. After that, we could test the base of the $50 handle again.
Ethereum Makes a Run for $1800Ethereum has broken past significant resistance levels in the $1700's and made a run for $1800. We fell just short of this target, topping out at $1790 or so, in the middle of the vacuum zone between $1748 and $1821. We are seeing quite a few red triangles on the KRI suggesting strong resistance. If we are able to break through $1821, then $1872 is the next target. We should have further support in the $1700's if prices continue to fall, with $1653 being our anticipated floor price for now.
How Long Can Bitcoin Rally?Bitcoin has risen sharply off a rally in stocks and a strong selloff in the US dollar. We have blasted through $20.7K and have almost completely crossed the vacuum zone to the next level at $22.4K. However, we are running into resistance confirmed by a series of red triangles on the KRI, and thus the price action is likely to round off some point soon. If we reject $22.4K, we will likely see support from $20.7K. If the rally continues, then $23.9K is the next target.