EURJPY DOWNSIDE?EURJPY is on our watchlist as we are currently seeing the market buying into the safe havens such as JPY and selling the EURO due to the events outlined in our previous EURUSD post.
Looking at this market technically we are at a key support zone, if we see the market push below the zone and close lower we can look for the continued short trades here. If this
market does break lower there is room to the see this market fall to the next support zone of 125.00.
Blueberrymarkets
USD STRENGTH EVIDENTAs we can see from this USDCHF chart currently the USD strength is in play and we should expect this to continue as long as the data backs up the Federal Reserves plans to hike interest rates. We will be closely watching the data releases over the coming weeks. Keep an eye on GDP, CPI and Employment announcements as these will be key indicators to inflation targets. This will then ultimately affect the decisions to hike rates or not.
Looking at this chart we can see the 4hr chart created the higher highs after double bottoming at the support zone we have talked about before. Expecting this market to head up to the key resistance of 1.0050 where the market will have to make a decision on direction.
EURUSD DOWNSIDE CONTINUATIONWith current situation with Brexit and Italy continuing, the EURO could be an interesting currency to keep an eye on. That paired with the USD strength economically and seasonally we could see further downside to come from this market. Looking at the chart technically, before we look for the short trades we need to see a clear close below the current structure lows at 1.1432. If we see that close below we could see a re-test of the 127.2 fib extension before seeing a retracement to the those structure lows where we will look for the short if the market conditions have been met.
BRENT CRUDE TO RETRACE FURTHER IN WEEKLY UPTRENDWe have already had some great shorts on Brent of the past few weeks and now we have just cleared out the support of $80.00 we can continue to look for the short positions.
We have to be aware that the weekly chart is still in an uptrend and until its breaks the weekly lows of $70.34 we should be cautious in holding long term short positions.
Looking at the chart we could see the BRENT CRUDE OIL market retracing down to the 38.2 fib and if so we could look for further short trades down to this point if the market on the
4hr timeframe can pullback into the key 4hr structure lows of $79.00.
CADJPY STILL HOLDING AT SUPPORT AHEAD OF BOC RATE DECISIONWe expect to see some movement on this pair this week due to the Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday where they are forecasting a 25bp hike. This should lead to some investment into the Canadian Dollar however is the move already priced in?
Looking at this chart technically it's at a weekly support level which it can't seem to break through at the minute and could be key to either seeing the market break or bounce at this point.If we see a break above the key structure highs we can look for CADJPY longs however if we sink and close below the support we could expect a deeper retracement of the weekly uptrend to the supporting trendline below.
One to watch!
GBPUSD DOWNSIDE CONTINUATION LIKELYLooking at the GBPUSD technically we can see that the market is clearly making lower lows and lower highs and the Daily timeframe confirms we are still in a downtrend with the potential for price to head down to the key support level of 1.2700. If the market can pullback to the key resistance of 1.3020 with 50.0% Fib confluence we can look for the continuation short with stops above key 4hr highs.
Brexit still remains the threat here with Prime Minister May saying she has the deal 95% done however the Irish border remains an issue. This is likely to continue to cause an issue for a while and would expect the market to move lower.
NZDCHF CONTINUATIONNZDCHF -0.07% has been on our watchlist for a while now and looks to be setting up nicely with the break and close above the key daily support of 0.6500 last week. The 4hr timeframe is printing an uptrend creating the higher highs, higher lows. Typically in a trend the market will re-test areas of structure as it moves higher and as we can see we have a 38.2 fib sitting just below the previous structure highs where the market could find buyers again.
INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDER- NZDCADCurrently NZDCAD -0.27% looks to be setting up with an Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern. Typically when you see this form at the bottom of a downtrend like we are seeing now, we see a shift in trend. We know from the Commitment of Trader reports that commercial long contracts are now at the highest we have seen in a very long time giving us a fundamental confluence with this currency. Seeing bullish pattern combined with this information can work effectively and efficiently. If we see the market pullback into the left shoulder support zone we could look for long trades. Be careful with this market in particular as Wednesday we have the Bank of Canada interest rate decision where they have already discussed the potential for a rate increase which may now be priced in.
HK50 LONG OPPORTUNITYIndices globally have been in a downturn as the trade tensions between Trump and China heated up however should we expect some short term relief?
The market works in trend and tends to bounce between support and resistance zones. The HK50 (Hang Seng) has reacted from the key weekly support of 25300.00. Looking left you can see how this level has been used significantly in the past and could find some buyers at least into the key resistance of 28500.00.
HK50 LONG FROM WEEKLY SUPPORTIndices globally have been in a downturn as the trade tensions between Trump and China heated up however should we expect some short term relief?
The market works in trend and tends to bounce between support and resistance zones. The HK50 (Hang Seng) has reacted from the key weekly support of 25300.00. Looking left you can see how this level has been used significantly in the past and could find some buyers at least into the key resistance of 28500.00.
INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS _ NZDCADCurrently NZDCAD looks to be setting up with an Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern. Typically when you see this form at the bottom of a downtrend like we are seeing now, we see a shift in trend. We know from the Commitment of Trader reports that commercial long contracts are now at the highest we have seen in a very long time giving us a fundamental confluence with this currency. Seeing bullish pattern combined with this information can work effectively and efficiently. If we see the market pullback into the left shoulder support zone we could look for long trades. Be careful with this market in particular as Wednesday we have the Bank of Canada interest rate decision where they have already discussed the potential for a rate increase which may now be priced in.
NZDCHF ContinuationNZDCHF has been on our watchlist for a while now and looks to be setting up nicely with the break and close above the key daily support of 0.6500 last week. The 4hr timeframe is printing an uptrend creating the higher highs, higher lows. Typically in a trend the market will re-test areas of structure as it moves higher and as we can see we have a 38.2 fib sitting just below the previous structure highs where the market could find buyers again.
GBPNZD UPDATE...GBPNZD turned out to be a great market to be short in as the NZD strength intensified combined with negative GBP CPI data.
Looking at the technicals for continued downside the support we marked out on the previous chart should now become resistance and will be the ideal place for short opportunities. With the resistance sitting at a psychological number of 2.0000 also it adds to our confluence of shorting opportunities at this level.
EURCHF TO PUSH LOWER. ITALY PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE EURO.EURCHF could be a key chart to watch in the coming weeks as the Italy situation continues to put pressures on the EURO, not only that the FED are looking to continue there plan to hike rates which will have a massive impact on the value of the EURUSD. If the Italy saga continues we may see a run to the CHF as it is know as the european safe haven. Technicals show we are at a key resistance level and could potentially move lower from this point as the 4hr chart is starting to cycle lower. The key support of 1.1200 will be likely targets.
GBPJPY UNDER PRESSUREWe have discussed in the past couple of weeks of the JPY weakness especially trading NZDJPY long, however GBP remains under pressure as Brexit negotiations continue to be a problem for the uk as well as disappointing CPI numbers downplaying any sort of rate hike hopes for the UK offers good selling opportunities.
Looking at the technicals we can see the 4hr timeframe creating the lower lows and lower highs and we expect this to continue down to the support of 145.45.
EURUSD DOUBLE TOP NECKLINE IN PLAYAs we know from the FOMC meeting minutes this week, the FEDs plans to hike rates are still on track and that will likely fuel the continued strength in the USD. Looking to the most traded market the EURUSD we found resistance up at the 1.1600-1.1640 zone and the 4hr has completed a double top pattern. Looking for the neckline to be used as resistance for continuation lower in this pair.
EURAUD SHORT TRADING OPPORTUNITYThis is another pair we touched upon last week as it re-tested key resistance and rejected on the weekly chart. We have had to remain patient with this pair for a high probability opportunity and now we are starting to see the trade shape up. The 4hr is starting to line up with our higher timeframe by creating a lower low breaking through the previous lows at 1.6150 highlighted by the red circle. Looking for the trend continuation move if we see the market retrace back into the 61.8 fib and lows of 1.6200.
USDJPY 4HR BREAKDOWNWe spoke the other day that we could see some upside to the USDJPY after it came into key weekly support of 111.70 . Now looking to the 4hr timeframe we have a confirmed higher high after breaking out of trendline resistance. In a trending market we tend to see old resistance act as support and the market is currently testing the previous 4hr highs at 112.40. This a great area to look for further long trades on the USDJPY pair.
FTSE 100 LONGS SHORT TERM LONG As we have seen of recent the indices have had what Donald Trump is calling a 'correction'. As a technical trader this looks likely to continue to the downside but we must ask ourselves where the high probability trade is from. So looking at key resistance levels will be key, seeing that the 50% Fib is sitting at the resistance zone of around 7250.0 looks promising for trend traders. So, if we expect price to go short from here we could look at price going long short term to that level. Looking at the 4hr timeframe we can see the market changing cycles here giving us a potential opportunity if it can re-test the previous structure highs at 7055.0.
USDCHF UPSIDE TO COMEUSDCHF has been stalling around the key support of 0.9860 for a few days now and with the likely hood of further hikes from the Federal Reserve the USD strength looks likely to continue in the near future. Looking at the chart technically we can see the market could be forming a double bottom pattern with the neckline sitting up at the structure resistance of 0.9920. If we see the market form a higher high breaking above the double bottom support we will likely see further upside with targets coming in at the weekly resistance of 1.0050.
CADJPY LONGS FROM SUPPORTCADJPY has recently interacted with a key weekly support level of 85.60 with weekly 38.2 fib confluence and bounced breaking through a key trendline resistance. Technically this looks good for a long set up now we have created a higher high on the 4hr timeframe. Looking for price to retrace back into the 4hr highs around the 86.40 zone highlighted with the rectangle box. If we see bullish price action we can look for the long opportunities here.
Band of Canada are looking to hike interest rates and typically you will see a currency increase in value in the lead up to a rate hike.
USDJPY TO CONTINUE LONG?USDJPY technically has come back into previous weekly highs and support around 111.75. Combining this with our trend analysis with the market creating higher highs and higher lows we should expect the market to move higher until otherwise told by the market. Fib analysis shows a 38.2 fib sitting at the support zone adding to our idea. Looking for a 4hr change in cycle or double bottom here before going long.
NZDCHF WAITING FOR THE BREAKNZDCHF is in focus this week as it approaches a key resistance level after breaking out of a trendline resistance. The market came into a support level and now looks to be forming daily trend if we see the market create a higher high. NZD is another currency of focus highlighted from our COT reports and we have already positioned ourselves on NZDJPY in line with this idea. If the market breaks and closes higher we expect the market to test the 127.2 fib extension before looking to trade after a retracement to the key level of 0.6510.