Bitcoin and Elliot playing in the waves of time!This chart by no means is a price prediction. It's a look into a possible future for bitcoin in the coming years based on Elliot wave theory. In this chart I am are assuming that Bitcoins next move is the start of wave 5 in Elliot wave theory. When ever it ends the theory states that a massive ABC correction will follow, which would kill the mania and be bitcoins first true BIG bear market. This correction ( crash ) would not only be devastating by price but also by time, as it would most likely last multiple years and be the longest bear market to date. It would physiologically kill the market, and it's this this bear market that would likely kill all the shit coins and show which projects will last for years to come. It's only a devastating crash like that would cleans the market of scams, that would then catapult all the survivors to the next level in the eventual impulse wave 3!
Time frame
My time frame for this to start is 2026 to 2029. It all depends on how long it takes for the first impulse wave of wave 5 takes.
How long will the bear market crash last?
The question that everyone would answered is the one question that no one can answer. It could be that some or most people might not see new highs for the rest of their natural lives... So 10 to 30 years... But I would say most likely 10 to 15 years would be in the cards.
What about adoption?
I believe that in this bear market is when the true adoption and the realization of the use and necessity of Bitcoin/blockchain/defi to the masses. This is where Bitcoin gains critical mass in my opinion, but it will take a long time. This is all hypothetical of course providing we haven't lost technology through war or any other interruptions.
This is my outlook for the next decade or so, but I might be getting ahead of my self.
Let me know what you think in the comment section down below.
Thanks for looking
*The only certainty is, that there is no certainty *
BLX
$BTC to $15.8k? Over the last few days, I've switched my bias towards the downside. The trigger was $BTC losing the $19.2k support yesterday which increases the likelihood of further downside.
As you can see from the chart, there's a H&S that formed on the 2 day chart. If it were to break the neckline, I think we could see a capitulation low happen quickly. The price action was enough for me to completely exit the crypto market and stocks. Not sure what the catalyst will be, if it'll be the PMI, or something else, but I think the risk is greater than the reward at this point of being long. So I'm going to sit in cash.
I have bids set at $15.8k should this play out. There may be some volatility over the next week or two that could send prices higher in the short term, but if it doesn't break $22.5k, this idea is still valid.
If $15.8k gets hit, then I revert back to my previous idea where I think that'll setup a run into the $30k range. I'd anticipate a move playing out sometime over the next 1-6 weeks.
Let's see.
btc 10-10 good morning,
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bitcorn has stalled out entirely, which is a really good sign.
to explain why it's a good sign in a short sentence:
btc is broken the bearish pitchfork + has been in a accumulation phase down here since june.
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i remain to be bullish on btc, and continue my silent accumulation phase.
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ps. 17k raid target still is present, don't be surprised if btc raids all the long stops before it begins the run i'm talking about.
BTC to $28k next? Here's what needs to happen.Shorter term update (still think that BTC will go higher in the mid term but the path of how we get there in my mind has changed):
There's a lot of people assuming that we're going to retest the lows right now. That combined with the chart, leads me to believe that we'll see higher prices from here, before (the possibility) of going lower.
If you look at the chart, it looks like the rising wedge that we just broke down from has now formed into a broadening wedge. If that is the case, then I can see testing the top of the wedge at $28k, before we go lower.
The bottom of the wedge needs to hold for this idea to be valid. I'll have to reassess what happens after $28k should that target be hit.
Let's see what happens in the coming weeks.
Blx macro ending diagonal idea!Although we havent confirmed bottom yet we still have same legacy top trend line! BBlx has broken 21/233 ema bearish for the first time in history of weekly chart. I expect 10-13k bottom but we are near the 1-1 fib of our correction and historically corrections have bounced at the .786! Not claiming a bottom here but when we are finished correcting I think this Elliot wave count will hold true!
Rules for ending diagonal:
* Ending diagonals consist of 5 waves, labeled 1-2-3-4-5.
* Each wave subdivides into threes. Waves 1 and 4 overlap in price.
* Wave 3 can not be the shortest among waves 1, 3 and 5.
* Wave 1 is usually the longest, but not necessarily.
* Usually occurs in a wave 5 of an impulse and wave C of an A-B-C correction
7k bitcoin Coming?Although the charts of bitcoin on lower time frames look like they might be bottoming, the monthly chaos looks like it's just getting started. BTC has just broken it's low on the RSI at the same time it has gone below it's historical log growth curve.
This could get real bad real soon.
Not Financial Advice.
weekly bullish divergence.two times in history was there ever a weekly bullish divergence on bitcoin.
both times marked a cycle low.
feast your eyes on the third time in history that this has ever taken place.
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a weekly hidden bullish divergence of this magnitude is also present for the first time in history -
indicating a significant reversal on the horizon.
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this doesn't mean that btc can't go lower,
don't get me wrong, it absolutely can ~
all it means is there is a visible shift into positive momentum.
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each and every single one of those cycle lows, a majority of the market was incredibly bearish, hoping for a break down to get better prices, all in short, or simply terrified to become buyers after getting rekt on a -90% decline ~
and each one of those rare occasions posed as the single biggest buying opportunity in crypto's history.
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fact of the matter is, most people won't become buyers in crypto until btc breaks ath - that's just usually how it goes.
"you're so lucky" they'll tell us, when our buys 100x from these lows,
-as we'll simply smile at them in total agreeance.
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history is being created right before your eyes ladies and gentlemen, and you are currently a big part of it.
💰
𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘪 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘥𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦?last few weeks i have assessed all of the potential scenarios in the stock and crypto markets,
i've spent hundreds of hours observing the overall market sentiment and all of the beautiful data which has come to light;
and i have made up my decision for the time being,
i think we go up into the new year...
to about 35k.
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that being said,
i could be totally wrong about this so please don't randomly follow my footsteps blindly as i am not a financial advisor -> 𝘪'𝘮 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘢 𝘨𝘶𝘺 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘺𝘴 𝘢 𝘷𝘪𝘰𝘭𝘪𝘯 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘪𝘤.
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this move up will be nothing more than a B wave (suckers rally),
and i do think btc collapses in 2023, down to about 6k (before a true bear market bottom is in).
✌
bitcoin consolidating at major fib circle, doom or boom?bitcoin is ranging for several months as it nears a key fib circle
in my previous bitcoin chart i prompted that bitcoin capitulates each november every 4 years (10, 14, 18, 22?)
if the monthly closes below current price and crosses the fibo circle we may see a weak october before final drop november to my ladder zone for longs
one idea that has crossed my mind is that this could be a large ABC correction (A to current price, B to ATH with an SFP and then C back down to ladder zone and 100mma / sfp current local low)
deep divin'btc seems to be hanging off a cliff here.
our daily indicator has crossed bearish a few days ago and has resumed downtrend successfully.
btc has printed a double hidden bearish divergence in this range on the daily, and continues to show signs of weakness with each passing day.
i highlighted the last few times our indicator crossed bearish (on the daily) with a similar hidden bearish divergence + the reaction btc saw each and every time.
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i was looking for this current correction to expand in time, but my theory is becoming less probable with each passing moment.
i''m going to keep this real simple,
if buyers don't come in over the next few days, btc will likely fall off this cliff.
@TradingSurfers made a beautiful post the other day displaying the cliff - check it out 👇
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i've shared numerous bearish alternatives over the last few months, and ima leave them here for you to feast on:
btc 9-15 update ~good evening,
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btc is still chopping around, but it's building a pretty nice base down here with some decent bullish divergence.
i'm still looking for some kind of 3 wave move over the next few days before it pops up higher.
the middle 3 wave move can take the form of a few different things, and it's important to let it take shape before attempting to take any trades down here.
invalidation of the bigger move up will be at a break of 18454.5.
✌
too bull too quick?bitcoin is starting to display a loss of momentum up here.
it has also printed a very clean 4h hidden bearish divergence:
⏬
this tells me there's a reversal which is imminent in the near term.
bitcoin did come up in 5 waves though, which is generally the beginning or an end to something. in this case, it is the beginning of something as it came right off the lows.
⏬
the bulls want to see something along these lines:
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but i'm looking for more complexity, as displayed in my last post:
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it is also still somewhat possible that this mean retracement which bitcoin is currently working on is a connector leg for a larger move down which is yet to come (to 13k),
displayed in this post right here:
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the strategy is simple this week,
watch what the rejection looks like from the local golden zone at about 22.5k.
>if the rejection takes out the lows at 18.4k, entertain the last two ideas which i shared above.
>if the rejection is controlled (doesn't take out the lows), and it comes down in a clean 3 wave move, then we might be in for a bullish treat over the next few months.
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as always, be very cautious over the next few weeks - as there's quite a few different paths which bitcoin can take.
btc 9-14 updategood morning,
in my last post i was looking for btc to retrace up to the local golden zone and see a rejection
>it did
>>>but... it came up in 5 waves rather than 3, which changes the trajectory as of yesterday.
looking for a bit of a deadcat bounce in the days ahead before the final move down in this range (which in theory shouldn't take out the lows)
if the lows are defended by the bulls, we can look for upward expansion into the month ahead.
This could be your next huge buy opportunityHey everyone,
Lets see if I can repeat the halving cycle forecast success as in Apr 2019 because I see very similar conditions no matter what people think of Bitcoin based on fundamentals. This is clearly a technical view.
This chart is based on Fear/Greed mutliyear halving cycle ( Supply and demand + greed and fear = cycles)
What is Halvening ?
In Bitcoin , halving is when block rewards for mining are cut in half. Halving happens at regular intervals based on the Bitcoin protocol.
In other words the code underlying the network dictates that X new coins minted as mining rewards for miners adding blocks of transactions to the blockchain will be cut in half every Y blocks until the reward reaches zero and no new coins are mined.
Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks.
Since one block is added to the Bitcoin blockchain roughly every 10 minutes, each halving is about 210,000 blocks x 10 minutes = 2,100,000 minutes = 4 years apart.
When is the next Bitcoin Halving: Assuming no major changes, the mining reward will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 per block approx. in Apr 2024
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What happens when all the bitcoins are mined?
The bitcoin inflation rate steadily trends downwards. At the time of writing, more than 3 out of every 4 bitcoins that will ever exist have already been mined, and the annual inflation rate is just 4%. The block reward given to miners is made up of newly-created bitcoins plus transaction fees. As inflation goes to zero miners will obtain an income only from transaction fees which will provide an incentive to keep mining to make transactions irreversible.
Due to deep technical reasons, block space is a scarce commodity, getting a transaction mined can be seen as purchasing a portion of it. By analogy, on average every 10 minutes a fixed amount of land is created and no more, people wanting to make transactions bid for parcels of this land. The sale of this land is what supports the miners even in a zero-inflation regime. The price of this land is set by demand for transactions (because the supply is fixed and known) and the mining difficulty readjusts around this to keep the average interval at 10 minutes.
** This is attempt to predict future price movement & not a financial advice **
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bitcorn, end of year (bullish) projectionthe other evening, some chad opened a short bigger than any other short opened over the last 2 years.
thanks to this guy, we're probably gonna go up when he gets liquidated.
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this is a bullish projection, an argument against all the bear cases which are out there.
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double zig-zag is what this count is called.
x wave might turn into an expanded flat + rocket ship to anywhere between 29~40k.
wave y will be the destroyer of dreams, the one which takes away everything from the average joe.
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new years target = 35~40k
btc (idea 2)this is idea 2 of 2.
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both of these are equally probable, but i do personally prefer this one, as it gives us a beautiful opportunity to trade up from 13->35k, then short it back down to 6.
this move would allow many people to double, triple, or even quadruple their capital - hence giving them more buying power when the time comes for the long term hold.
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both ideas take us down to 5.9k.
i know you probably don't wanna hear this, but it's not me making these targets up.
the chart tells the story, and i am merely the interpreter.
take care 🤝
the path of mass destruction (part 1)13k is a number many people have their eyes on as of now,
what if the market decides to do something completely unexpected instead?
>like raid the range lows, then pop up to 35k
this would liquidate all the bears,
it would also turn a majority of the market bullish near the top.
and what would come next, would surprise everybody lol.
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ps. not saying this will happen, but i'm anticipating the least expected scenario to play out from here - one which will cause both sides extreme pain once it is completed.
ps2. part 2 to this post will be posted if 35k is realized.
btc 9-6 update ~good evening,
btc seems to be approaching a local bottom here.
4h bullish divergence, and shorts are starting to get out of control lol.
there's not much further it could go without invalidating this leading diag, so a move up is right around the corner.
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looking for a 2 week rally before further decline to 13\14k.
btc (idea 1)good afternoon my peoples ♥
feels good to post again o/
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i have two ideas to present to you today.
this is 1 of 2.
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this particular pattern is called a double zig-zag
i feel like few people know what a double-zig zag is, so it would be the highest probability outcome from here.
>to give a lot of people the false hope that a bottom was created from the first simple zig-zag, and we've re-entered into a bull market.
>only to crash back down again, stop everyone out, cause panic, etc \ ruin the hopes and dreams of about 95% of the market.
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i'm not particularly fond of this idea, but i'd happily trade it if i received the proper confirmation in the next 7 or so days.