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Btc 5-23 updategood afternoon; --- btc looks to be playing out a double combo in this general region. a double combo is a series of three wave moves which are labeled as a w-x-y. each leg in a double combo consists of either an abc, or a wxy. (it could also contain a triangle, but they're a bit more rare). --- i'd be expecting a 3 wave move which takes btc down to around 27.8k to complete wave (x) followed by another 3 wave move which takes us up to 33k to complete wave (y) after which, i do believe it falls off a cliff again. --- the new moon lands on may 30th this month; historically speaking, the new moons have called every single top in this bear market to date. it may have missed one, so 95% accuracy thus far. 👇 --- ps. it's also possible btc simply just dumps it from here, so watch the reaction from the level on my chart. if it starts flipping it to resistance, watch for a move down to around 24k - as talked about in my previous post:
by notoriousbids
4
This idea remains highly probable.If this was to take place, it could be counted as a completed third leg in the wedge which I've been discussing recently. I'm really not satisfied with the price action over this last week; and it really does look to me like a phase of re-distribution -> which is why I've put myself on the sidelines for the time being. Until I can conclusively eliminate this idea, I'll be 100% cash. ---- w5 target = 24k. ---- ps. i have this little indicator which has been calling out every single top in this downtrend. Whenever it clusters the way that it's doing right now, it has led to a fairly large descent in the days which followed. ✌
by notoriousbids
2
btc 5-21 update ~hello's if the spx500 is indeed working on a diagonal, as shared in my last post(view at the bottom of this thread); then i think this is the highest probability path for bitcoin to take. a choppy 3 wave move which goes on for a few weeks, before seeing the final leg down to 22~23k. --- wave 4 could go a bit higher than my current projection, but it would need to maintain the structure of a contracting wedge, and it would also have to get into the territory of wave 2 for it to play out as planned. (i'm able to move the upper portion of the wedge out a bit to rhyme with the 0.50% retracement at around 35k.) will continue to monitor it as the days go by. --- ps. if i'm right about this idea, the corrective phase could come to an end at 22k by the end of july. --- spx500 diagonal 👇
by notoriousbids
1
late night thoughts,🌙 take a peak at this weekly channel: notice all of the points of confluence, and pay attention to how the previous levels of support have turned into resistance levels. now that bitcoin has successfully fallen out of the weekly channel, the lower portion of it has in theory now become a significant level of resistance. order books are stacked to the brim with sell orders all around that little red line. there's a really good chance bitcoin continues to consolidate for awhile before it tests it \ drops lower. keep an eye on the line, it is an important one.
by notoriousbids
3
"The Bear Case Part 2"My previous post was a very optimistic outlook. The market might turn into full savage mode \ not even give the longs a chance to exit their positions, but instead create a massive liquidation event instead. Right now, longs are leveraged at levels unseen before. Historical highs on long leverage. If I was market maker 😏, I'd liquidate every last one of them, just so I could get the best possible price for the next bull run. 😈 Some say buy when everyone is fearful, others say short the ponzi. --- Primary Tech macro 👇
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
9
"The Bear Case"Real quick, If the top is indeed in(which i'm not saying it is), I would expect a decline to around 10k on Bitcoin (could go as low as 3k). The path that it takes to get down there is still unclear, but it will become very clear as more data presents itself. --- I'll be 100% honest with you all, i can care less about which direction the market goes. I make money in either direction, and have 0 attachment to either side. There is an infinite amount of possibilities in the market, and this is just one of thousands. Don't use this post to make any kind of financial decision, for I am not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions, and approach the market with your own unique strategy. Just because i am bearish right now, does not mean that you too should be bearish. This is merely a theory, based on a hundred different factors that are currently at play in the world. 🥂
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by notoriousbids
3
a bearish glancetaking a look at this whole picture from a bearish perspective, just to entertain the idea. looks fairly clean to me, the whole vibe of this downward move. it wants to continue in my opinion. the 4h hidden bear, the triple lower highs, quadruple delta divergence, stacked order book on the sell side; the weak alts. all of it. this might be just a little pitstop for a re-distribution phase before further mark down. --- i'm not saying this is what's going to happen, just entertaining the possibility. ✌
by notoriousbids
1
"the bull case for btc"i'd just like to start this off by saying, there is a guy who bought eth at $100 back in the day, the other day he sold off his entire position, and stated "i have had enough with this ****** bear market". (lol) this is the kinda signs i look for before we have an imminent reversal to the upside. ----- all of the anal-cysts who were calling for btc 100k back in the day, are now calling for btc at 20k. the bulls have turned into growling bears, and the bears are swimming in tendies. everyone and their uncle wants bitcoin at 20k, the rich dad poor dad guy is saying hes gonna go all in at 17k, michael saylor is sweating, contemplating his decision making skills. the og bull are capitulating, and there is terror on the streets. ------- this is when i come out and say, when the majority of the market want something to happen, the market tends to throw a big middle finger at them, and does the exact opposite. i'm entertaining the idea that the bottom is in, and no further downside will take place. (possible raid of the local lows to take out the long stops, but no 20k will be seen in 2022). the immediate upside target sits at 130k for the fifth wave, and it will come quicker than you'll have the chance to even blink. one day you'll awaken and see bitcoin up 10k, and the next day will be another 10k. before you know it, it's christmas eve - everyone (including santa) is talking about bitcoin going to 500k, and that's when the real top will be in. 🥂 ps. your boy called the top, and he's about to call the bottom. leaving a few posts down below, feel free to feast on them. big cheers to you if you've made it this far 😎 ps. i am very long.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by notoriousbids
4
dead bull bounce.a "dead-cat" bounce is a temporary recovery in share price after a substantial fall, caused by speculators averaging down on their losing positions. but a wise man once said, "the market can stay irrational longer than they can stay solvent". ---- there's a lot of leveraged longs in this market right now - for every 1 short there are 15 longs. eventually, high leveraged longs (who weren't willing to take a loss along the way) will run out of money \ won't be able to average down on their losing positions anymore - this will cause an exaggerated wave of liquidations in the crypto space. i foresee this capitulatory event approaching in the near horizon. ---- primary wave 4 target = $22,000
Short
by notoriousbids
13
BTC rising wedge to $65k+ then down to $9k-$16k?This is a longer term projection based on the price action that's taken place combined with what I'm seeing from ichimoku + some of the indicators I use. In this interpretation of the chart, we're currently in this rising wedge pattern trying to find a bottom. I think there's likely to be one more retest of the bottom of the structure before a larger move higher begins. I think if that bottom support holds, that it's likely that we start a run between now and June and could retest the top of the rising wedge and/or push slightly above it in that timeframe. If that happened, it would take price to $65k+, where I think we'd ultimately reject, and which would setup a fall lower. After that, towards the back half of 2022, I think it's likely we see a very quick bear market which retraces sharply down to that $9k-16k price target in the gray box. Let' see how it plays out from here. Note: this is a longer term projection and a lot would have to play out between now and then for this to come true. If the bottom of the structure holds over the next couple of weeks and we start a move higher, that's the first indication this idea is playing out. Then we need to see price reject at the top of the structure before June 20th or so. I'll update this idea as price action continues to play out.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by benjihyam