BTCUSD: Same 2019 Fractal To Look Out ForHard not to notice the similarity in the parabolic run from this winter compared to 2019. I hadn't considered this fractal until I matching them up. Both bull runs come from the lower bands of the logarithmic growth curves to around the mid-band, with approximately a +250%.
This would imply a 6-month long down-trend extending to a 50% correction. Therefore re-test of $20K could on the cards, possibly as low as $18K if the fractal continues, while remaining long-term bullish.
BLX
BTC/USDT (Downtrend Confirmed)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BINANCE: BTCUSDT
-As mentioned yesterday, Bitcoin showed signs of weakness
-The price broke support in the 4H timeframe sending the price to the 31k dollar area
-It is currently testing the midline support of this descending channel
-Can we expect a bounce from this level?
-if not, it will likely go down to the lower channel where the 50ma is located
-So always prepare for the worst-case scenario
-Have a cut loss trading plan if the market becomes too risky
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BTC/USDT (Last Bounce at Support?)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BINANCE: BTCUSDT
-Bitcoin is rejected at 38k dollars sending the price to its horizontal support area
-We can see the Bulls are defending the green support zone as the price is pushing up
-The Bulls are getting weaker due to a series of Lower Highs
-If the Bulls can't pass this trendline resistance
-And come back down to retest the support area for the 4th time
-Personally, I won't have the confidence to rebuy
-Because we know the area gets softer the more it is being tested
-The only good sign though is the Altcoins will have more time to recovery
-During Bitcoin's sideways market condition
-Please be careful because the bigger/longer the consolidation range is
-The stronger the breakout direction will be (up or down)
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Bitcoin - Societal DaggerThe strength of bitcoin will continue to grow
The fixed amount is what makes this asset class so appealing
This is going to be a big change for society when the spiral is respected
A dagger for those ill-informed
BLX chart
Using geometric structures based around the spiral, A bit of Raw Gann
BTC/USDT (Sign of Weakness?)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BINANCE: BTCUSDT
-Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness after the 3rd rejection of the trendline resistance
-The price is coming back to its local support around mid 34k dollars
-This will be the 3rd retest of this area and that is definitely not a good sign in terms of price action
-We can expect a breakout of this triangle pattern within 24-48 hours
-Be ready and make sure you always have a trading plan
-If in case a downside market direction, the potential next key support is around mid 30k dollars
-While an upside breakout above 37k will lead to a potential retest of 40k dollar resistance
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BTC/USDT (Expect Sideways)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BINANCE: BTCUSDT
-After breaking its upward trendline of support
-Bitcoin is currently facing rejection on the retest
-The good side though it still holding the 0.5 Fib support level
-For me, this is a crucial area for the Bulls to keep the short-term uptrend
-A break below 36k dollars is a warning signal
-We must not ignore the 1st lower high at 40k dollars
-Bitcoin is now moving sideways and we can see the Altcoins are gaining momentum
-This is the perfect time for strong Altcoins to move higher
-But still, do not forget to follow proper risk management especially using a stop loss
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Finding Clarity through the Profit HazeHello fellow Traders,
We are looking at the BLX chart on the Weekly to establish a long term directional bias for Bitcoin. I trade using David Halsey's Measured Move trading system. While this system is just Fibonacci retracements, the "special sauce" behind this system is how the pivots are chosen for those Fibonacci retracements. This system has a self-referential, fractalizing nature about it. I will defer to DH for any further Measured Move teachings at his website (www.eminiaddict.com).
To give some historical perspective, applying the Measured Move (MM for short) system to the BLX chart in Log scale, we can find a clear "market footprint" to base our analysis off of. On the left, we have the first Traditional MM (Low to High) which price goes blasting through the first Profit Target during Bitcoin's 1st bull market marked by the 1st red arrow. When price goes through the Target, the Traditional MM turns into an Extension MM (high of Trad to high after meeting Target) which also met it's Target in Bitcoin's 2nd bull market. With our current bull market, we are actually in an Expanded Extension (which gives an MM trader like me the goosebumps, it's a very bullish sentiment) and we have, in recent weeks, met that Target of ~$38,500. SO, what do we do here? Let's assume you haven't taken profits just yet because you believe there is more upside potential. That brings us to something I want you to pay attention to...
Looking at Bitcoin's 2nd bull market, when Bitcoin reversed at the Profit Target (~$2720) of the 1st Extension MM, this gave MM traders the only opportunity we have for a Trailing Stop Loss. That is to place your Stop at the Stop Loss of the new Extension MM. That may sound confusing, but please refer to the chart text to get some clarity.
Why is this important and something to take note of?
BECAUSE WE ARE IN THE EXACT SAME SCENARIO RIGHT NOW
Let's remember that in our current bull market, the profit target was ~$38,550. We MET the Target so that allows us MM traders to employ that only opportunity for a Trailing Stop Loss. What happened in Bitcoin's 2nd bull market? We were able to use the Trailing Stop to increase the upside profits by multiple fold.
Coming back to the present, and to try to keep the rest of this clear and concise, according to the trading system, there is 1 of 2 things that can happen...
Bitcoin either...
1. Reaches the MM Extension's Profit Target of ~$50,000. (more probable)
OR
2. Breaks the MM Extension at ~$24,550. (less probable, but still possible)
Until either one of those events happen, we are forced to play the waiting game.
Let's not forget that the possibility of us breaking the Extension MM is still real. So we must prepare for that as well and with that being said...
IF, Bitcoin breaks the Extension MM at ~$24,550, THEN I will be expecting a large correction and will be placing buy limit orders at the $4.5k - $ 7k range.
Again, I'm not putting my money on the Extension MM breaking (hell, I'm as long as can be), but I won't be ignorant to the possibilities that lie if I am wrong in this moment.
Thanks so much for reading!
Happy Trading
- Smiley
P.S. - this is my very first post and I hope to receive some feedback on how to better express my ideas. Don't be afraid to leave any suggestions! Thanks again.
BTC/USD (Strong Rejection at 0.786 Fib)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BITSTAMP: BTCUSD
-Bitcoin got rejected at the last Fib resistance level of 0.786
-Also, it broke the upward trendline support with a Bearish candle
-During the strong sell, the price reacted at 0.618 Fib level
-The 34k dollar is a confluence of 100MA support area
-This time around is crucial for the Bulls because they lose the short-term strength
-If the Bears will send more follow-through in the coming few hours
-We might see a revisit of 32k-31k dollars in the coming days
-Please be cautious about your trade and Altcoins
-Always follow your trading plan and stop-loss must be strictly followed
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BTC/USD (Daily Key Support is Found?)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BITSTAMP: BTCUSD
-Bitcoin just had a -28% retracement from its recent ATH around 42k dollars
-The price came down a retested the 20MA support on the daily timeframe
-On the 3rd test, BTC bounce off strong and potentially will close the candle in green
-This is a good sign in terms of price action and trading above the 20MA
-If the next daily candle will close the green bar
-The chances to retest the 40k dollar region will increase
-We are still in a Bullish market, trading priority remains to the upside
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BTC/USDT (36k Dollar New Resistance?)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BINANCE: BTCUSDT
-Bitcoin found support around the $30.4k region
-The price bounce up to 36.5 dollars
-But having a problem breaking above the 0.5 Fib resistance zone
-If Bitcoin can't go back above the bullish zone
-This is a problem in the short-term
-A strong rejection could lead BTC down and retest its recent low
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BTC/USD (41k Dollars Strong Resistance?)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
COINBASE: BTCUSD
-In the short-term time period, BTC broke to the downside
-The pattern decided to break its trendline of support
-It seems the 41k dollar area acted as a strong resistance zone
-If this downtrend continues, the potential target is almost the 35k region
-That zone may act as a good rebuy area because of previous resistance turned support
-Be prepared, always follow your stop loss and book profit if needed
-The market is moving again, don't give away your profit back to the market
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BTC/USD (Consolidation @ 40k Dollars)💎Technical Analysis Summary💎
BITSTAMP: BTCUSD
-Bitcoin still following the upside trend
-Right now, the price is currently consolidating around 40k dollars
-BTC needs to defend the immediate 40k dollar support
-This is the confluence of local support between Bull and Bear
-The 20ma is now approaching the price which can act as a dynamic support
-Trading priority is still up as long as important levels are holding
-I expect Bitcoin to consolidate here for the next 24-4hours
-And if we see an upside breakout, the target is the Fib 1.618 - 2.0 Fib extension resistance
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