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Potential for a Pull-back as it Correlates with DXYIf you've seen my other posts about this - Bitcoin has clear negative correlation with DXY. You could pull up the Correlation Coefficient indicator and make an argument that it correlates positively just as often as it does negatively, but when you compare the charts with each other, nearly every peak corresponds with a valley vs. the other and vice versa. They are typically offset by some period of time if not at the same time. Also, try setting CC length to 35 and it provides a more clear picture of its long-term correlation. Presently, Bitcoin looks like an inverse head and shoulders re-testing its neckline. Meanwhile, DXY looks like a head and shoulders with a pullback that hasn't quite reached the highs of its right shoulder. Also, each shoulder and head of both head and shoulders have eventually corresponded with each other, in opposite directions, and Bitcoin has yet to have made a pullback. However, it may skip the pullback altogether should DXY continue down and move back below ~98-101. Or, DXY could instead move up above ~105-106 leading to pattern failure on both, and a strong uptrend on DXY / strong downtrend on BTC. Let's see what happens next! Please see my related posts below in the links to related ideas. Thanks for reading!
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
3
The panpanXBT Bitcoin risk IndicatorHi Fellow Traders and Investors, Today, I want to look into this brand new hot off the presses indicator, THE BITCOIN RISK. The focus of this indicator is the risk levels of bitcoin in real time. It's color coded and fairly straight forward and simple. it's best use is for long term investors not so much for day trading. It can be coupled with other indicators to make confluence and confirmation. for example the RSI and this indicator are very powerful when coupled together from what I have seen. As we can see it is still very early in the bull run and still a very good time to be making purchases. How accurate this indicator will be going forward? Unfortunately, only time will tell, as I'm fairly sure it's been retro fit in some way to work. I have no affiliation with the creator and have no personal gain. I found this indicator, was granted use of it and found it useful, so, I am passing it along. If you are interested in it, you have to get a hold of the creator. Down below is an overview in the words of the creator. Here is a quick explanation from the creator himself... Here's a quick overview of what the model is based on and how it can provide value: "The panpanXBT Bitcoin Risk Metric is powered by regressing 'fair value' data. The errors are adjusted to account for diminishing returns using a fitted exponential curve. The result is a channel that Bitcoin price has historically bounced between. Users can quickly identify periods of extreme under and overvaluation, which could present great investing opportunities."
BNC:BLX
by WeAreSat0shi
3
Bitcoin's roadmap to $300,000 | 2023 to 2025Once the $40,000 ceiling is breached in Q4 2023, it will be a straight road to $100,000 within 6 to 10 months. The bitcoin halving of April 2024 will come and go. A major correction will only be after a top of $100K to $150K around mid-to late 2024. This will be followed by a mini-bear market / correction to the previous ATH of $60Ks. This correction won't last longer than a year, ending with a push into the high $200,000s or even touching $333,333.33 by the end of 2025. Disclaimer: Keep in mind that market predictions are about as reliable as a weather forecast in outer space. Use this analysis as a conversation starter, not as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, so do your homework and make informed decisions. Remember, no crystal balls here—just a pinch of insight and a dash of caution
BNC:BLXLong
by Sikbh
Fib levels confirm next Bitcoin cycle top in mid-2025Focusing on the Fib wedge here, it can be seen that each Fibonacci level has marked Bitcoin's top so far. 1. The zero point of the fib wedge is exactly where BLX price starts from at around $0.05 in 2010 2. The first fib level 0.236 marked the top around $30 in 2011 3. The second fib level 0.382 marked the top around $1100 in 2014 4. The third fib level 0.618 marked the top around $20,000 in 2017 5. The fourth fib level 0.786 marked the top around $66,000 in 2021 These are FIVE points of reference with pin-point accuracy. Not "by chance" or "coincidence". Therefore, it is only fair to assume that the 6th one, which also completes this fib wedge being the final level of 1.0 on the fib wedge, is going to mark the next cycle top as well. A highly conservative top would be around $150,000 while a more realistic target seems to be around $200,000 to $250,000 . On the other hand, a highly optimistic target is around $300,000. Also inferring from the chart an approximate time-point can be seen of mid-2025 for the next BTCUSD cycle top. A mid-cucle top of $120,000 to $150,000 in mid 2024 is also possible. The important thing to remember is fib level 1.0 around mid-2025. How the price gets there is anyone's guess. === Sidenote: The series of 5 side-by-side fib retracements each are set as follows: - 0 marks the top of each cycle - 1 is aligned with the bottom of the cycle immediately preceding it The resulting congruence among the retracements and their harmony with each other is astounding. === Disclaimer: Keep in mind that market predictions are about as reliable as a weather forecast in outer space. Use this analysis as a conversation starter, not as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, so do your homework and make informed decisions. Remember, no crystal balls here—just a pinch of insight and a dash of caution
BNC:BLXLong
by Sikbh
1
DXY and BTCUSD patternsThe Dollar Index (DXY) is generally considered to be inversely proportional to Bitcoin (BTCUSD). This chart shows many other similarities that can be noted when overlaying BLX (orange) on the DXY chart (blue). The biggest takeaway with reference to Bitcoin's price movements is that it's possible, contrary to the popular belief of 4-year cycles, that BTCUSD is not following a strict timeline. Rather it seems Bitcoin price has expanded in 2 phases since inception, with 2 cycle tops in each phase (these 3 phases are marked by the time range bars at the very bottom). Given this data, it is possible that the next bitcoin (hence, crypto) top will be around mid-2025. Furthermore, since there are 2 tops in each phase, the approximate time range for the cycle top after that could be around late 2028. Disclaimer: Keep in mind that market predictions are about as reliable as a weather forecast in outer space. Use this analysis as a conversation starter, not as financial advice. Investing in cryptocurrencies carries risks, so do your homework and make informed decisions. Remember, no crystal balls here—just a pinch of insight and a dash of caution.
INDEX:DXY
by Sikbh
AW Bitcoin Analysis - Head And Shoulders Above The Rest...In this video, we build upon the previous Bitcoin post, diving deeper into the count and potential correction unfolding. I share my thoughts on the possibilities of how the current wave could form, starting with an understanding of corrective pattern formation. Using the previous waves as a guide, we explore the general observed patterns, leveraging the concepts allowed by AriasWave. When dealing with variables, there is no preferred count. Instead, we focus on the factors afforded by the thought process driven by the methodology. In support of this idea, we discuss the $168 retracement, which aligns with a similar length measure down from the neckline. This analysis suggests that the price won't reach zero, as that outcome appears less likely. However, if the price approaches this level, it will indicate extreme market psychology driven by the prevailing narrative at that time. As always, it's important to remember that these predictions are not exact, but rather a form of envisioning made possible by understanding the concepts embedded within AriasWave. By exploring different scenarios and factors, we gain insights into potential outcomes and the psychological dynamics at play in the markets. Join me in this video as we delve into the intricacies of the current wave formation, examining the patterns and narrative shaping Bitcoin's journey. Through the lens of AriasWave, we gain a deeper understanding of the market dynamics and the possibilities that lie ahead. Disclaimer: All predictions are subject to change as new information emerges, and individual analysis should be conducted alongside this discussion.
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
5
AW Bitcoin Analysis - Your Account Will Hold You Accountable...Join us on this video journey as we explore the significance of AriasWave in delivering the best wave analysis. By understanding the count for Bitcoin, we uncover the intriguing nature of corrections, which can be either lengthy or deep, showcasing the concept of alternation emphasized by Elliott. However, AriasWave takes wave analysis to new heights. Critics who hold a negative opinion of AriasWave analysis must recognize that they are potentially opposing the successful side of the trade. Our methodology is the result of eight years of meticulous backtesting, thoughtful analysis, and a comprehensive collection of all counts presented on this channel. The multitude of variations seen over the past two years is a testament to the preparation for AriasWave's entrance into the mainstream. Today, we stand at the pinnacle of our journey, armed with deep counts that shape the future of AriasWave methodology. The same clarity and depth I bring when speaking is mirrored in my analytical posts, contributing to the growth and success of AriasWave. Moving forward, our analysis will be based on the preferred counts before March 2023, marking the completion of extensive testing. This grants us a range of options to proceed, while ensuring that we consistently provide you with the real count based on AriasWave and our final determinations. Any count adjustments will be minimal, mostly occurring at small degrees. Join us as we navigate the fascinating world of wave analysis, driven by AriasWave's proven methodology and unwavering commitment to delivering accurate and insightful analyses.
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
1
Growth/Losses of All Altcoins Excluding Eth vs. BitcoinHere's a look at major peaks and valleys in Bitcoin and Total3 (total altcoin market excluding Ethereum) starting from the Dec 2017 peak until now. First, a key to follow along: Key: - Solid Green/Red Lines = Peaks/Valleys occurring during the same week or day between both markets - Dotted Green/Red Lines = Peaks/Valleys where dates deviate between the two markets Traditionally peaks and valleys have happened around the same time, sometimes with minor deviation where altcoin market's peak or valley occurs shortly after Bitcoin's, if not on the same week or day, and altcoins as a whole have typically shown stronger losses than Bitcoin from peak to valley, in the past. After the 2017/18 peaks, Total3 lost more, in less time, than Bitcoin. It peaked a few weeks later and then bottomed on the same week. More recently, that deviation has grown in length and changed in scope. Here's how: March 2020 low through the April/May peak: --Total3 moved stronger and for longer (by just under a month) than Bitcoin. It typically does move stronger, but moves tend to end nearer to each other than what happened here. November 2021 ATH to our most recent ATL: -- Despite many alts having steeper losses than Bitcoin, as a whole Total3 lost approximately 3% less than Bitcoin and its valley occurred 6 weeks after Bitcoin's. In this case, it moved weaker than Bitcoin and has shown the longest deviation in the time it took to do so. About a month ago, around April 13th, Bitcoin made a new local high. Altcoins haven't yet followed. Interesting, right? That said, we still don't know for sure whether Bitcoin is headed towards a new peak or a new valley. Let's see how this plays out.
BNC:BLX
by dudebruhwhoa
33
BTCUSD to $333,333 by mid-2025Fib retracements for each major phase since the beginning. Each phase has corresponding fib retracement levels to previous phase. For example 0.786 of each phase aligns with 0.236 of the preceding phase. If this plays out again, it would suggest the next major top at around $333,333.33 (approximately) for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Furthermore, Fib Time Zone extensions suggests possible time frame for next major price point to be around mid 2025. Note: All Fib levels have been drawn for personal musings and entertainment, definitely not to be taken as financial advice.
BNC:BLXLong
by Sikbh
90k Bitcoin by Dec 2023?2023 looks like it will be bullish. Is it possible that that Bitcoin could reach 90k by late 2023 or even early 2024? Yes anything is possible, however it's not likely. What is likely is the beginning of the new bull market (March/April) is what I believe. Until then, we will only see small movements with volatility growing upward into second quarter of 2023. The Stochastic RSI on the monthly has never had a false signal and historical marked the beginning of the Bull market. Only time will tell, Invest responsible. This is by no means investment advice.
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
4
AW BTC & ETH Analysis - I'm Seeing A Top For Both Cryptos...After watching and waiting for price to unfold, it looks like we're finally seeing a reversal for Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is my strong belief that this bear market is just getting started. A break below 26,500 will be a solid confirmation for Bitcoin in terms of AriasWave so pay attention to that level. I also mention Ethereum in this analysis as it now looks like they have both topped. According to this count, Ethereum has already confirmed the reversal. Watch the previous update linked down below. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
Short
by AriasWave
AW Crypto Market Update - Ethereum - Bitcoin - XLMThis video aims to give you an indication of where we are within the ongoing correction for each of these digital assets. I expect to see weak price action with limited upside in these markets as the full corrections come to an end. Once we see the momentum wane in a choppy manner, the final move in each market should lead to an inevitable blow off top. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
COINBASE:XLMUSD
by AriasWave
60 thousand dollars.Good evening! Our group reached a milestone of 70 members last night, and I'm excited to share a bullish idea with the world. Bullish momentum continues to build as increasing pressure mounts on the financial world. For many, Bitcoin appears to be "the way out," or so the simple narrative goes. However, I'm not here to discuss narratives; I'm here to analyze market structure. The market seems poised for a breakout, and I believe it could be massive. While most people expect a 32k 🎯, my target was 39k since last august. I've raised my target to 60k as of this evening for this particular bull case. It is only after reaching 60k that I predict Bitcoin will fall to revisit the November 2023 lows. --- Key levels: 🔨 60k (Target) 🔺 10k (Support) --- Stay vigilant and trade wisely!
Long
by notoriousbids
12
BTC: Correction Incoming? Should we Short, or Prepare to Buy?Hello friends! I hope you had a profitable trading week so far. This time, I would like to express my concern for Bitcoin. As we can see, Bitcoin had 2 consecutive rather indecisive weeks. Usually indecisiveness means either of these 2 things: - Bulls charging their juice for the next run, or - Bears are absorbing the bulls and are preparing for the reversal. In this case, I see a potential reversal cooking. At least in bigger time frame (daily or weekly) it will only look like a correction. But in intraday timeframe, it might be a reversal signs and/or good short setup potential. MY OBSERVATION 1. We can see that there was a bearish divergence in RSI formed. See the dashed white arrow. This indicates that bulls are weakening. 2. We can see the failure of making a higher-high. See 2 yellow arrows There 2 signs indicates that bears are ready to take action. However, we need a third confirmation. My analysis will be proven if the yellow bold line is broken. This will indicate that the price has formed a lower-low structure, which marks the start of a downtrend (at least in intraday timeframe) Next Question: HOW LOW CAN BTC GO? If you see at the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is ranging between 13-16k zone, and 28-32k zone. In addition, the box I draw above marks the supply zone at the weekly timeframe. So, the worst case scenario is that BTC will go to 13-16k zone as the weekly range low. But, assuming that the trend is still bullish, then I am marking these zones: - 24000-24000 USD zone - The blue trendline shown in the picture Should we see a bullish signal in those area, we can start buying/long up to 35 or maybe 40k. Hope you like my analysis and don't forget to share your thoughts as well
Short
by Evolutiontrading-Indonesia
AW Bitcoin Analysis - Getting Closer To The Preferred Count...As always, I aim to improve my analysis of Bitcoin because if I am not producing better ideas then I am not doing my job. You can see the chart for this idea linked down below in related ideas. By now I have dissected and cross examined this chart more times than I can count. Let's get one thing straight, Bitcoin has not ever seen a GFC so assuming that it won't actually correct properly during a crisis is probably going to cost you dearly. The news is cat ship wrapped in dog ship, so believing that Bitcoin is performing well because of some silly media BS is only setting you up for failure. Besides, don't people often say that the FED never lets the market correct properly? Why wouldn't you want cryptos to correct properly? One thing Bitcoin has never done is correct properly so if you want it to go higher then you will understand why this is important. Does this offer people a chance to get in at a much lower price? You better believe it, and I want to help you get in cheaper because when the whole space finally moves up, you will be better off for it. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave
1
AW Bitcoin Analysis - IS SHTF For Bitcoin? Old Count Modified...The truth is that my old count modified For Blue Wave 4 makes a lot of sense when looked at this way. Why? Because if I was counting this move up as a Weak 5-Wave move, the problem is that Waves 4, 2 and 1 are not overlapping. Therefore, it cannot really be classified as an official Weak 5-Wave move. Duh! But also, look what happens when I run a trend-line from the previous 2 Wave 4's... Price has been interacting with this particular trend-line recently which might help explain the price action at the lows right now. Something about the crazy insane mania I have seen lately piqued my curiosity and I just had to try out this combination of analysis. It seems plausible therefore I will head in this direction because it makes sense to do so. I have also been making progress with the move down since all-time-highs which might help explain what we are seeing now. Could the SHTF for the original crypto afterall? Could we really be in Wave 2 of a larger unfolding trend right now? I will do my best to answer these questions very soon. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial adviser; I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research. ***AriasWave is not the same as Elliott Wave so your counts may differ to mine if you happen to use it.***
BNC:BLX
by AriasWave