USDCAD: Tonight's Bank Of Canada rate trading ideaUSDCAD: Tonight's Bank Of Canada rate trading idea
BOC
AUDCAD December Technical Analysis: Reversal confirmedTalking Point:
Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook
Elliottwave View: Reversal confirmed and counting impulsive waves
Analysis
AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864 and now reversal confirmed from 1.0100 level. Currently we are counting impulsive bearish wave. We are expecting it's minor first leg will be completed soon and can expect small correction towards 1.00. This will provide anyone to join who missed this train.
Action
We are running two short position from 1.01 and 1.004, and for both position we lowered down our stoploss.
-- By Hoagtrading.com (@Hoagtrading)
AUDCAD: Trend Reversal?Talking Point:
Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook
Elliottwave View : Confirming completion of wave (C) of c
Analysis
AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864. Ongoing upward momentum can be wave 2 / wave B.
Action
We are having level planned to short this pair with limited risk and having maximum rewards.
-- By @Hoagtrding (Hoagtrading.com)
USDCAD: Interesting sell setupUSDCAD has an interesting short setup here, after retesting a heavy resistance zone, apparently completing a terminal pattern, completing a correction before more downside. We can short on weakness, and short rallies to the 1.35 zone. Price shouldn't go above 1.35565 here, so place a stop there, rather simple.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
AUDCAD Technical Analysis: Expecting correction to be overTalking Point:
Technical Strategy : Turning Bearish
Elliottwave View: Expecting completion of wave (C) of c.
Analysis
AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave. With that in mind, we are expecting correction should be over sooner and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.022 to 1.023 area.
Action
We are waiting for decline and it's confirmation before entering into market. Until then we are sideline and looking into future development.
EURCAD: Daily uptrend after a huge baseWe have a giant base in EURCAD, after testing a long term speed line support.
It's clear we can expect higher prices, specially if we break the last session high.
You can go long on dips to 1.48131, or on a new daily high. Stops for all positions should be at 1.47326.
Target 1.51543, although we might see a reaction at 1.50786, so keep an eye on it, and the projected date for the top: October 26th. As a sidenote, if price doesn't retest 1.46441 during Q4 2016, we have a signal that points to a rally towards 1.76219, so it might be worth it to hold long positions initiated here for the long term with a break even stop after hitting the daily targets.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Forex portfolio:NZDCAD-Low risk buy opportunity against supportWe can enter longs in this pair here. Risk is a drop to 0.94199, but the target is 0.99359 at least.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
USDCAD: Back to the uptrend modeThe time at mode trend signal in USDCAD has exhausted the forecasted upside, so it's likely to return back to the uptrend mode as the arrow shows.
We can short under yesterday's low today, before the close. If not filled, we can short under today's low, with a stop at today's high after today's daily close. Risk 0.5-1% on the trade.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
EurCad Big Bullish Potential of 600 pipsXA Is the initial Breakout Impuls of the multimonth Flag Pattern.
ABCD We are seeing another Breakout Flag pattern above the larger one.
ABCD also can be seen as a textbook Gartley pattern.
Natural target would be around 1.50 level.
My entries are: Buy 1.4485 Stop 1.4380 Target 1.4990
To be honest, i am liking this setup very much, and i also think the fundamentals could be in favor of this trade.
Good Luck!
USDCAD: Long reentryWe reentered USDCAD longs today. I expect a strong rally to emerge from here, today's strong close after a shakeout (post Yellen's mumbo jumbo) gave way to a solid advance that broke the Brexit key level resistance. If we observe that next week's trading stays above the blue rectangle (the weekly uptrend mode), we will get confirmation of a rally towards 1.372, to be hit by December 10th, or earlier.
You can enter long next week at the open, using the stop on chart is a good idea to give it some margin of error.
Good luck if taking this trade (or if long USDCAD!).
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
AUDCAD: Good chance to longWe can take this long here, risking a drop under 0.97612. Target is not set in stone, but watch how it evolves. We're testing a critical support level, but also facing considerable resistance, so we might have to be patient. I still think the trend will continue to be up, so, not a huge concern to hold this.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
PS: I had a moderator comment on my publication format, for now, I'm keeping it brief, but message me if interested in my services. I will post trades on and off, but there are quite a few I reserve for my private clients.
A Healthy Dose of Doom and GloomKeep away from sidewalks under windows.
MACD:
RSI:
Will the monster eat you too?
We Expect Weak Canadian Jobs Report After Massive Wildfire• The CAD weakened against USD as oil prices moved lower and risk appetite waned. Losses for the loonie came one day after it strengthened to a five-week high at 1.2655 as expectations dwindled that the US Federal Reserve will move to hike interest rates again soon.
• Oil prices fell, snapping a three-day rally after notching another 2016 high, as a stronger dollar sparked profit-taking in crude futures. Slippage in global stocks provided an additional headwind for the risk-sensitive commodity-linked Canadian dollar. US stocks retreated after three straight days of gains.
• Statistics Canada showed that Canadian industries ran at 81.4% of capacity in the first quarter, up from 80.9% in the previous quarter and new home prices in Canada rose 0.3% in April from March.
• Canadian employment data for May will be released today (12:30 GMT). The report comes after a massive wildfire last month cut production in Alberta's oil sands region. That’s why we should expect weak figures. The Bank of Canada has said it expects damage from the wildfire to shave 1.25 percentage points off economic growth in the second quarter, which could put the quarter on pace for a contraction.
• Our USD/CAD outlook remains bearish in the long term. Firming economic growth, a recovery in commodities prices and the shift in expectations for monetary policy for both Canada and the United States are still important supportive factors for the loonie.
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Inverse Oil/USDCAD: Time to short oil against CADIn this chart I illustrate how drastic the outperformance of oil is against cad.
Whenever this happens, we have a trade opportunity at hand. See related ideas for a chart by Tim West on this same subject.
We can anticipate inverse oil's performance to improve relative to USDCAD, and thus, expect either USDCAD to stall or retrace, or, USOIL to fall rapidly and catch up with the move in USDCAD. (I think the latter is the most probable scenario)
If you look at the recent turn of events, all international news regarding the supply of oil have been curiously released right when the price action suggested a top was in place but the manipulation can only last for so long before the market resumes its course. I firmly believe what we see in lumber or usdcad is a more realistic depiction of what we should see in oil, so, let's try to capture that impending downside.
One more thing to consider, you can also try to book USDCAD profits and/or try a short against the usoil short, effectively shorting oil against cad, or perhaps try the TSLA/USOIL long, see charts below:
Good luck!
Disclaimer: I'm currently long USDCAD from an average entry of 1.26, and shorted oil at 48.85 with a 3 atr stop loss (roughly 5 points).
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
USDCAD: Hold longs, watch these levelsIn my previous publication I shared my long entry in USDCAD. I was long from a couple days before but using a wider stop, until I noticed price action in the hourly chart suggested the bottom was 100% in. Then I added to it with tighter stops.
I hope many caught that trade with us!
In the chart you can see my previous usdcad publications, which show I've been 80% right in this pair, contrary to say, NZDUSD, which is one of the worst performers for me, where I only got 30% wins in the daily chart. In this case, the time at mode trend signals will shine, but in NZDUSD, a more reactive trading style is needed, which in hindsight, would favor bar by bar price action analysis (which can most certainly be done using Tim West's tools, but not expecting trades to evolve into trend setups like I mistakenly did).
This is a nice feature, offered by tradingview, I'd reccomend you all use it, both to analyze your past performance, but also to see what the bulk of traders are doing. During a trend, you can see that most of them are trying to go against it, with growing number of shorts right before the tops, and a shift into longs after it has in fact topped. What I would like, would be to see not only suggested authors' ideas, but I guess it would be too demanding for Tradingview servers to show us ALL trade ideas for one symbol per timeframe, on chart, as an overlay to each bar.
That being said, the levels I plotted on chart will be important resistance levels on the way up, and I anticipate to form a sideways range eventually, after meeting either of them. The key will be seeing what price does after hitting each of them, to either, add to longs, or close and go short again.
For now, it'd be hard to determine how far price can go, so, we'll go with the flow and don't try to play Nostradamus (yet).
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EURCAD: Chance to join this uptrendWe're in this long with my group already, as you can see in the private idea on chart. We have moved the stop loss up to the location on chart, and now we're presented with an opportunity to long if we break above yesterday's high.
The target on chart is a time at mode uptrend target, we can expect to rally rapidly towards it once the pair breaks up since EURUSD is acting strong and oil topping...even if USDCAD is to stall or retrace, odds of a rally are considerable.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers!
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
USDCAD: Bottom's inYou heard it here first...go long at market, keep stops under the low, or give it some extra breathing room if you wish (like adding 1 atr below it).
Oil has topped, and now it's the turn for USDCAD to move up again after hitting a weekly mode of the previous uptrend.
Correction's over.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com
We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
GBPCAD: Potential uptrend emerging from hereWe can look to capture some upside in this pair. Currently lagging GBPUSD, and offering indications of a potential bottom.
We have landed on the recent monthly uptrend's mode, currently finding support and evidence of the bulls getting involved here. A resumption of said uptrend seems likely.
If you're not long, you can enter at market with stops under 1.8257 ideally.
Plenty of room to catch up with GBPUSD and other GBP pairs.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
CADUSD: Close above low volume resistance opens up huge upsideI have been trading the long side in this pair for a while now, entering and reentering on every chance I had.
I'm in this trade, and looking to add if we get a minor retracement retesting the low volume resistance zone.
If not in, you can go long now, or on retracement to the light blue zone on chart. The same applies to USDCAD, naturally, just inverse. If you platform doesn't have this pair trade the USDCAD short side.
If you know how to trade trends, this might be a terrific one to ride, really nice potential here.
Good luck if taking this trade.
If interested in my professional trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
CADJPY: Potential for huge downside in this pairCADJPY has broken under a previous week's low recently after finding massive supply coming in at a previous low volume resistance level, where the bears showed hand. Interestingly enough, we now have 5 closed quarters without a new high, and a close under the quarterly mode, thus confirming a long term downtrend in this pair is viable.
The weekly chart shows us with clarity where the highest activity levels sit. Currently we have 8 week levels where price has transacted at, soon to become 9, thus favoring continuation of the downtrend that kicked off during December 2015.
Once we observe price move under 82.774, it'd be safe to assume we might have a sharp decline, with potential to hit the 75 handle in 9 weeks or less. Confirmation according to the time at mode logic would arrive later, but I'm already in this trade based on the daily chart price action. We have 5 days without a new high after today's close, further validating this thesis. You can go short on any intraday retracement, or at market now, with stops above the 85 mark.
Good luck if taking this trade, if interested in receiving timely trade signals and/or tuition, contact me privately for more information. I'm currently offering a discount for new clients who opt for my trading course.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EURCAD: Potential rally after downtrend time expiredIn this chart we have a nice long setup, with a premature entry, based on a series of factors, ahead of the time at mode confirmation for this trade.
Since we're above the mode, or most frequent price since the recent low, it's likely to see uptrend continuation, specially considering that the downtrend we had observed in the daily (see my related publications) has reached the target, and the time duration of it expired. This implies price can rally back to the downtrend mode, which is what I expect based on the eurusd, usdcad and oil charts.
We can enter preemtively now, using a wider stop and a smaller position (1% risk at the 3 atr stop on chart), and set a generic 5 atr take profit. This type of entry lets us 'feel the waters' in many instruments, and focus on adding to those that are currently performing best. We can also use paper trading accounts to take positions we wouldn't normally take, or to sell when we close any long trade, etc. and track our performance this way.
I hope you find this useful, it's not always about using tight stops, but having lower risk from time to time, can favor our equity curves too.
The horizontal lines are 1 atr distance levels, where I would like to add to the trade (and which would confirm the strength of the proposed uptrend). After exceeding 1 atr profit, we can add on any setback, no need to add if price keeps going up with no retracement.
Happy Easter!
Ivan Labrie
NZDCAD: Triple top and potential 12 month decline aheadThis chart is significantly interesting for a variety of reasons.
On a technical and fundamental basis I think we can expect NZDCAD to sell off in the intermediate to long term, and right here we have the perfect excuse to join in on this action as a position trade.
The entry is a discretionary entry, below the previous monthly close, in case next month, we stay under the monthly mode at 0.92063, which would confirm the 12 month decline and the target on chart.
Good luck if taking this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
