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USDCAD: With oil rising...I think we can get a rapid selloff in USDCAD, given how volatile it is. I entered shorts on Friday with tight stops, and looking to add at market open. It also serves as a hedge against my other positions, short SEK and JPY. My currency positioning is as follows: long USD, AUD, CAD, short SEK and JPY. Fundamentals might create interesting opportunities, both long and short in majors, so I'm open to hedging my profitable trades and keeping balanced positions between currencies. (USDSEK and EURSEK are in good profits now for instance) I'm open to shorting oil against this position additionally, but not right now, when it's expanding the daily range shooting up. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
USD/CAD viewGood evening traders, Energy traders would have noticed the somewhat eery price action on oil prices recently. I believe that recently losses are attributed to: - Emerging doubts over the degree of compliance with OPEC production cuts as Iraqi exports remain high; - Concerns about the rate of market rebalancing; - Rapid rebound in U.S. shale production following a report at the end of last week which showed another solid build in US rig count (risen for the tenth consecutive week) - I expressed my concerns about this in the related USD/NOK idea. Reports that non-OPEC producers Russia and Kazakhstan had reduced output produced little positive price reaction. In essence, there is a battle between two major market dynamics: OPEC cutting (and adhering to cuts) and addition of supply by US shale producers. One thing is for certain though: currently /cl price action does not look promising. USD/CAD is the best way to play near term oil downside in my opinion. USDCAD view USDCAD has been moving in the visible channel since May 2016 and is currently sitting on the lower trend line. CAD looks very expensive currently; the US-Canada 2YR swap spread suggests that USDCAD should be trading much higher indeed. Markets have been ignoring the risk of US protectionism for CAD; although CAD isn't as exposed to the risk as some other currencies (AUD, for example), the BoC's business outlook survey showed that some respondents are concerned about the uncertainty associated w/ rising protectionism and I do not think that the risk should be discounted so much, since a potential shift from selective tariffs to broad border tax could be significant for US-Canada trade. Risk:reward, technicals and fundamentals all favour buying the dip on USDCAD, targeting 1.37000. Good luck!
Long
by jamiegleave
1
NZDCAD: Potential uptrend continuation trade$NZDCAD offers a low risk buy opportunity here. You can establish a position buying gradually at the close of each day until Friday's close. Position size should be 0.15 lots per every 10k in your account more or less. A stop loss is detrimental, but we want to see the low hold for a week here. Potential upside is considerable, so it's worth taking this trade as a nice alpha source in your portfolio. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
10
USDCAD: Uptrend in motion, potential targetsUSDCAD might start tracing a continuation of the intermediate term uptrend here. Targets are on chart, both time and price matter here. I estimate to see a strong rally, followed by a correction, until there's enough time chopping around, needed to make the late comers give up, to eventually resume the rally, maybe once or twice before hitting the targets. If you bought gradually with me, or bought before FOMC today, you can hold with break even stop at your average entry price, and simply wait for price to approach the bullish targets on chart. My preferred approach is to monitor the trade, to trail stops and add gradually, and reenter if trailed out, once the eventual pullbacks appear to end. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
AUDCAD: Trend will resumeTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook Elliottwave View: Reversal confirmed and counting impulsive waves Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in Elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864 and now reversal confirmed from 1.0100 level. Currently we are counting impulsive bearish wave. We were expecting it's minor first leg and was expected small correction towards 1.00. This will provide anyone to join who missed this train. On 7th Dec (Today), we are confirming correction should be over. We are marking this is a complex flat correction where price was traded in range bound. Action We are running two short position from 1.01 and 1.004, and for both position we lowered down our stoploss. We also added plan for third position here. - By Hoagtrading.com (@hoagtrading)
Short
by Hittesh
AUDCAD December Technical Analysis: Reversal confirmedTalking Point: Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook Elliottwave View: Reversal confirmed and counting impulsive waves Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864 and now reversal confirmed from 1.0100 level. Currently we are counting impulsive bearish wave. We are expecting it's minor first leg will be completed soon and can expect small correction towards 1.00. This will provide anyone to join who missed this train. Action We are running two short position from 1.01 and 1.004, and for both position we lowered down our stoploss. -- By Hoagtrading.com (@Hoagtrading)
Short
by Hittesh
AUDCAD: Trend Reversal?Talking Point: Technical Strategy: Confirming it's bearish outlook Elliottwave View : Confirming completion of wave (C) of c Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We were experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave and possibly correction is over on 1.04 zone. With that in mind, we are expecting trend reversal should be taking place and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.04 and possibly we had it's first leg down from 1.04 to 0.9864. Ongoing upward momentum can be wave 2 / wave B. Action We are having level planned to short this pair with limited risk and having maximum rewards. -- By @Hoagtrding (Hoagtrading.com)
by Hittesh
AUDCAD Technical Analysis: Expecting correction to be overTalking Point: Technical Strategy : Turning Bearish Elliottwave View: Expecting completion of wave (C) of c. Analysis AUDCAD was trading sideway from Aug-2013. We were seen May-2015 a declined again but unable to takeout Aug-2013 low in impulse manner. We experienced a bounce from 9170 area in May-2015. However, upside was corrective and can be counted as flat correction in elliott-wave. With that in mind, we are expecting correction should be over sooner and can be seen impulsive declined from 1.022 to 1.023 area. Action We are waiting for decline and it's confirmation before entering into market. Until then we are sideline and looking into future development.
by Hittesh
EURCAD: Daily uptrend after a huge baseWe have a giant base in EURCAD, after testing a long term speed line support. It's clear we can expect higher prices, specially if we break the last session high. You can go long on dips to 1.48131, or on a new daily high. Stops for all positions should be at 1.47326. Target 1.51543, although we might see a reaction at 1.50786, so keep an eye on it, and the projected date for the top: October 26th. As a sidenote, if price doesn't retest 1.46441 during Q4 2016, we have a signal that points to a rally towards 1.76219, so it might be worth it to hold long positions initiated here for the long term with a break even stop after hitting the daily targets. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDCAD: Long reentryWe reentered USDCAD longs today. I expect a strong rally to emerge from here, today's strong close after a shakeout (post Yellen's mumbo jumbo) gave way to a solid advance that broke the Brexit key level resistance. If we observe that next week's trading stays above the blue rectangle (the weekly uptrend mode), we will get confirmation of a rally towards 1.372, to be hit by December 10th, or earlier. You can enter long next week at the open, using the stop on chart is a good idea to give it some margin of error. Good luck if taking this trade (or if long USDCAD!). Cheers, Ivan Labrie
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
AUDCAD: Good chance to longWe can take this long here, risking a drop under 0.97612. Target is not set in stone, but watch how it evolves. We're testing a critical support level, but also facing considerable resistance, so we might have to be patient. I still think the trend will continue to be up, so, not a huge concern to hold this. Good luck! Ivan Labrie. PS: I had a moderator comment on my publication format, for now, I'm keeping it brief, but message me if interested in my services. I will post trades on and off, but there are quite a few I reserve for my private clients.
Long
by IvanLabrie
We Expect Weak Canadian Jobs Report After Massive Wildfire• The CAD weakened against USD as oil prices moved lower and risk appetite waned. Losses for the loonie came one day after it strengthened to a five-week high at 1.2655 as expectations dwindled that the US Federal Reserve will move to hike interest rates again soon. • Oil prices fell, snapping a three-day rally after notching another 2016 high, as a stronger dollar sparked profit-taking in crude futures. Slippage in global stocks provided an additional headwind for the risk-sensitive commodity-linked Canadian dollar. US stocks retreated after three straight days of gains. • Statistics Canada showed that Canadian industries ran at 81.4% of capacity in the first quarter, up from 80.9% in the previous quarter and new home prices in Canada rose 0.3% in April from March. • Canadian employment data for May will be released today (12:30 GMT). The report comes after a massive wildfire last month cut production in Alberta's oil sands region. That’s why we should expect weak figures. The Bank of Canada has said it expects damage from the wildfire to shave 1.25 percentage points off economic growth in the second quarter, which could put the quarter on pace for a contraction. • Our USD/CAD outlook remains bearish in the long term. Firming economic growth, a recovery in commodities prices and the shift in expectations for monetary policy for both Canada and the United States are still important supportive factors for the loonie. Sign up to trading newsletter growthaces.com and start profiting from our trading strategies.
Short
by GrowthAces