$AUDCAD: Target Hit; Abysmal Target Next | $AUD $CAD #forexHello Friends,
As you may recall, last analysis demonstrated that we hit TG-1 = 1.01173 dead-on, and there remained the possibility of a TG-Lo = 1.00892, although the question was whether Wave-4 of a large 5-wave pattern had completed and would instead move on to a higher and final impulse Wave-5 at TG-Hi = 1.02346 - All of these targets add been defined by the predictive/forecasting model on 30 JUL 2014.
At this point, Point-5 distinguished itself by its price validation, albeit at a fraction of a pip missing (data on TradingView indicates 1.02336, whereas a separate FXCM-USA data indicates 1.02339, both a few fractions short of the TG-Lo value at 1.02346).
Assuming that the experience trader had fronted his Take-Profit position (moving T/P ahead of the TG by the value of the spread), then we hope that this predictive targeting got you in the green. If not, perhaps next time, we'll try to be less precise and allow for that little "je ne sait quoi".
TECHNICALLY:
Elliott Wave's 1-2-3-4-5 structure has completed. Trader should now turn to a 3-wave correction (A-B-C) which should help define the first impulsive manifestation of Wave-1 within a new 1-2-3-4-5 wave structure.
For the time being, I would wait and keep the directional bias under "Neutral".
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING:
The predictive/Forecasting model is putting out an abysmal 0.99796 target down below. This target has no predictive value at this time, therefore, it remains to be defined as a quantitative target (i.e.: TG-1, TG-2, ... ) or a qualitative target (i.e.: TG-Hi or TG-Lo).
DEFINITIONS:
As you may recall, quantitative targets define levels of significant R/S rated at a decreasing probability of getting hit, where price might hold, consolidate or retrace at a significant Fibonacci level, whereas qualitative targets define levels of significant reversibility, where price has a much lesser probability of attaining, but if and once it does so, price will have a high probability of reversing. The analogy here is that of a recoil, which makes it more and more difficult to compress (lesser probability of complete compression), but once it reached that level, it will spring out forcefully with great probability).
OVERALL:
Price hit last Point-5 of the 5-Wave Elliott structure; expect a reversal to the downside ever since that event completed.
An abysmal target is defined through the predictive/forecasting model at:
TG = 0.99796 - This is a neutral target (i.e.: neither quantitative nor qualitative - see definition above), and a model-based direction remains to be confirmed at this point.
I hope you have enjoyed the prior analyses and that you will continue to follow them on Twitter under @4xForecaster. I have also started to share important information on large banks position in the Forex market. Since institutional force is the wind that move the Forex, it is quite essential to know who goes where. Experienced retail traders can then affirm their own positions against the revealed trades made by the large banks.
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Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis/Forecasting
Denver, Colorado, USA
