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Will Canadian job data lift loonie?The Canadian dollar is in positive territory in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2619, down 0.34% on the day. Earlier in the day, the pair moved into 1.25-territory. It has been a busy week for the Canadian dollar, which started the week with strong losses but has partially recovered. The upward swing could continue on Friday, as Canada's job data for July is expected to show strong growth. The economy is projected to have created 100 thousand new jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 7.3%, down from 7.5%. If the readings are within expectations, the Bank of Canada may consider scaling down its QE programme, which would be bullish for the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada opted to remain cautious at its policy meeting and did not make any moves. The message to the markets was dovish, with policy makers warning that a fourth wave of Covid-19 and continuing supply-chain issues could hurt the recovery. Still, the Bank said that it expected the economy to improve in the second half of 2021. In the US, inflation is one of the most important issues for the markets, which means that US inflation indicators are sure to find themselves under close scrutiny. The US will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August, with the consensus at 8.2%, compared to 7.8% in July. Inflation remains red-hot in the US, with the Federal Reserve stubbornly insisting that surge in transitory and that inflation will ease. If we continue to see inflation rising in the final months of 2021, investors will become more sceptical of the Fed's stance, and policymakers may have to adjust monetary policy in order to curb inflation, which is well above the Fed's target of 2%. On the upside, there is resistance at 1.2719. This is followed by resistance at 1.2785. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.2625. Below, there is support at  1.2465
by OANDA
Shorts covering quicklyThe evolutionary break of 1.260x unlocked the floodgates and buyers successfully captured the higher high. But the revolutionary attack would not be complete without capitulation and be as follows: 1. Taking 1.295x (there is no question of having broken above July 19th highs, since sellers have given up a lot of ground for it, will unlock a test of 1.331x as a minimum flow 2. Using 1.317x for reference. The idea behind this attack, as clear from this example, consists of forcibly clearing a way through the defences to unlock a momentum move. Here sellers themselves have to cover their positions, so that triggers the cascading and comradeship. All we need to concentrate our forces on, is attacking if above 1.295x, till then we can continue sitting on our hands in a neutral position if not already loaded from below. Amongst other things, we also need to consider the forcible breakdown in Oil to $57 which will can add fuel to the attack.
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 12.08.2021Looking for continuation to the downside here in USDCAD with an initial target of 1.230x, extended targets at 1.200x and stop loss at 1.260x. Also actively looking at deploying additional positions EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDSEK with the latent USD softness. This has potential for follow through in August. ↳ Technically we are approaching key resistance levels, with support already breached, the developments imply we are not oversold. here is a lot of room to attack below, expecting an accelerated move in the coming sessions/days.
Short
by ridethepig
6
USDCAD gyrates inside key SMA envelope as FOMC week beginsUSDCAD holds onto a three-week-old support line, also staying between 50 and 100-SMAs of late. Even so, the gradually rising RSI line and an impending cross-over of the MACD line to the signal line keep buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside break of 50-SMA level near 1.2610 becomes necessary for the bulls to battle the 1.2680 and the 1.2730 resistances. On the top, the monthly high near 1.2810 becomes the buyers’ favorite, given the upside momentum gains fundamentals support from the Fed and BOC CPI. Bears have a comparatively tough task as the stated support line guards the quote’s immediate declines near 1.2560. Following that, 100-SMA level of 1.2525 and the early July top near 1.2450 will be crucial to watch. In a case where USDCAD sellers keep reins past 1.2450, an extended south-run to late June’s low near 1.2250 becomes the key to follow.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
#EURCAD: Bottom's inI suspect the $EURCAD cross pair is reversing in the weekly timeframe here, we might see a substantial rally as oil could be peaking here, and the $Euro is oversold. The setup calls for a potential rally to 1.53, with risk down to 1.47 if the trade fails. Ideally you try to get in on dips after the market is open, keep an eye on price action for an entry. Alternatively you can average in during the day to not be left out in case there's no retrace. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
ridethepig | CAD for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary - CAD for the Yearly Close A very good time to update the CAD maps as we approach the key 1.27xx pivot areas. For six years this level has been relevant and has convinced me it cannot easily be done away with. Since the overwhelming pressure on USD remains, what we are talking about here is likely a flash crash of some kind, I maintain that the positional sweep towards 1.20xx and 1.14 is within reach and losing this key pivot will make it easier to come to terms with. For those who remember the infamous Oil breakdown, the chart is always worth looking at for collateral moves in energy and commodity currencies. CAD in the wider sense will have large inflows from the Biden victory as an immediate and defensive position. The move somehow brings 2022 into the spotlight as very major low forming, the result of that will grind Canada to a halt for a number of years. You can see on the technical side that again we are keeping things simple, a breach of the pivot will open a waterfall towards initial targets of 1.206x and extensions below at 1.138x. We will dig a lot deeper into the macro pictures and charts once we get these maps out the way with. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
4
INSTITUTIONAL TRADE: Long USDCAD – MORGAN STANLEYMorgan Stanley recommends a buy in USDCAD. Rationale: We think global reflation is largely in the price, leaving limited room for global growth to surprise to the upside. US growth outperformance relative to Canadian growth (and higher US real yields) are consistent with USD/CAD gains. We think oil prices will struggle to rally above $70bbl, weighing on CAD, and investors are currently positioned short USD/CAD. Key catalysts: The BoC’s taper pace and output gap projection, oil prices, US Fed policy guidance. Over the next few months, we expect CAD to soften as the recent acceleration in global growth hits a slower inflection point, domestic growth meets (but does not exceed) market expectations and US real yields rise as a Fed taper approaches. We think Brent is unlikely to rise above $70bbl in the near term, 2y yield differentials no longer exert downward pressure on USD/CAD, and investors are already positioned for CAD strength. Positioning: Investors maintained long USD/CAD positions for much of 2020 despite the grind lower in the pair. However, following CAD outperformance year-to date in 2021, CFTC data suggest that investor positioning has now flipped to being most long CAD among all G10 currencies. That switch reflects two changes: a rise in long CAD positions among asset managers to decade highs, and a paring back of leveraged funds short CAD positions. Long CAD positions, therefore, mostly reflects net positioning among long-term investors. While long CAD positioning mostly reflects wagers made by long-term investors, backtesting reveals that both leveraged fund and asset manager positioning have historically been contrarian indicators, rather than momentum indicators. A contrarian indicator means that long positioning means poor forward returns, and vice versa. A similar picture emerges in other positioning data. A key trader survey (the daily sentiment index) indicates that investors are bullish CAD. While this survey has historically been a momentum indicator when investors are extremely bearish on CAD (i.e., bullish USD/CAD), it can be a contrarian indicator when investors are extremely bullish on CAD (i.e., bearish USD/CAD). Risks: The risk is that the USD continues to broadly depreciate amid lower US real yields and wider breakevens, which would likely push USD/CAD below 1.20 to a meaningful degree.
by thunderpips
2
CAD strength something the BOC is focused onShould we be concerned about the recent strength for the canadian dollar? Among a wide range of currencies, it is leading the global FX pack to the upside against the US dollar with a gain of 4.7% YTD. During a press conference yesterday, BOC Governor Macklem said that they are closely monitoring the recent gains in the CAD, explaining that a rapid further rise could jeopardize the economic outlook as it could be a headwing for exports. With over 70% of Canada's exports going to the US alone, the concern makes sense and something we need to pay attention to, especially with the USDCAD currently also trading at lows las seen in 2017. However, the Governor also said something that is very important to take note of. He explained that "If the dollar were to continue to move -- particularly if it's not reflecting good developments for Canada -- that could become more of a headwing". That tell us two important things. Firstly, that the bank sees the current appreciation as justified by the current fundamentals. Secondly, that the bank will only get concerned with further gains if the fundamentals change. Thus, the bullish bias remains firmly intact, but the current price level in USDCAD has definetely got the bank's attention and is something we need to consider for policy going forward.
by thunderpips
5
Chart of the day: Rates markets are pricing...Rates markets are pricing in faster policy normalization for the BOE With the Bank of England just a few days away, it’s always a good idea to reflect on the rates market and see what it’s pricing in. Looking at the SONIA quarterly futures rates we can see that markets are pricing in much faster policy normalization for the UK compared to the likes of the FED. SONIA futures are pricing in a first hike from the BOE by SEP 2022 (compared to March 2023 for the FED), and a total of 3 hikes (assuming 10bsp each) by March 2023. How does this information help us? It is helpful as it shows us a bit of a disconnect between the recent weaker price action, we’ve seen in sterling versus what the rates markets are implying for policy normalization. Thus, even though a lot of policy normalization expectations are baked into the rates market, the same is not reflected in sterling’s price action just yet. For now, consensus is not expecting the BOE to follow, the BOC’s lead by tapering asset purchases. But arguably the bigger focus will fall on the BOE’s rate hike projections.
CME:SONZ2021
by thunderpips
USD/CAD FIST ANALYSIS: Bank of Canada Meeting PreviewHi traders, here is a preview of the USDCAD pair ahead of the BoC meeting later today. Canada reported strong market indicators during this month. The Ivey PMI was reported at 72.9 vs 62 expected, and employment change and the unemployment rate beat forecasts significantly. This led to rumors that the BoC could increase their economic outlook for 2021 (which is likely) and that the Bank could begin quantitative tapering as early as this Summer. Now, the problem is that most of the good news is already priced in the market. Hedge funds have been heavily bullish on CAD, but have started to trim their long positions since early March. This could increase selling pressure in the currency, and cause a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" effect after the BoC meeting. Falling oil prices have also been bullish for USDCAD (blue line, inverted), but Canadian vs US 2-year yields remain bearish for the pair. Now, technials show a strong uptrend this week as markets are positioning themselves for a weaker CAD ahead of the meeting. This morning, the pair broke above a bullish flag pattern and continued higher on strong buying volume. Since most of the good news is already priced in the Canadian dollar, a dovish surprise could shoot the pair higher, possibly retesting the March highs around 1.2750. Find our posts interesting? Please hit the "LIKE" button to support us in our work. Thanks a lot!
Long
by MujkanovicFX
Will Canada job report boost CAD?The Canadian dollar has reversed directions on Friday and recorded slight gains. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.25% on the day. It has been a relatively quiet day week for the pair, but that could change in the North American session, with the release of key employment numbers (12:30 GMT). Canada's economy continues to grapple with the Covid-19 crisis, and the country's vaccine rollout has been on the sluggish side. At the same time, the economy is slowly finding its footing, and the Bank of Canada expects positive growth in 2021. The labor market surged in February, adding 259.2 thousand jobs. The April estimate stands at 101.5 thousand, and if the reading is within expectations, there is a strong likelihood that the Canadian dollar will respond with gains. The Canadian dollar has looked sharp of late, gaining 1.38% against the greenback in March. The economic recovery in the US has helped rejuvenate Canada's export sector, with 75% of Canadian exports going to the US. As well, the improvement in the global economy has raised the risk appetite for minor currencies like the Canadian dollar. Another key factor that has boosted the currency is the Bank of Canada's announcement that it plans to taper its purchase of government bonds. The QE programme has been a key tool in keeping interest rates low during the Covid pandemic, and the move to reduce bond purchases would make Canada the first of the G-7 members to take such a step, which could occur as early as the next policy meeting on April 21st. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is not expected to taper QE before 2022. CAD has support at 1.2521. Below, there is support at 1.2465. There is a pivot point at 1.2584. On the upside, 1.2640 was under strong pressure during the week. This is followed by resistance at 1.2703.
by OANDA
Ivey PMI could boost Canadian dollarThe Canadian dollar has reversed directions on Tuesday and posted slight losses. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2549, up 0.25% on the day. The Ivey PMI rebounded in impressive form in February, rising to 60.0, well into expansionary territory. This followed two straight readings below the 50-level, which indicated contraction. The street consensus stands at 62.0 for March, and a read within expectations could boost the Canadian dollar. A booming house market in Canada and elsewhere has raised fears of a housing bubble. Soaring house prices are nothing new in major urban centers such as Toronto and Vancouver, but this red-hot market has spread across the country. However, the Bank of Canada will be unwilling to make any moves such as raising interest rates, given the fragility of the Canadian economy. The recovery could be a long one, as Canada's vaccine rollout has been unimpressive, and Covid continues to weigh on the economy.  BoC Governor Tiff Macklem has called the price increases in housing "unsustainable", but with mortgage rates at an ultra-low 1.5%, demand will likely remain strong, keeping house prices at very high levels in the near future.  If mortgage rates suddenly rise, it could trigger a significant drop in house prices and drag the Canadian dollar down as well The US dollar has lost some of its lustre, as US Treasury yields have retreated. The greenback failed to take advantage of a stellar Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday, which rose to 916 thousand, up from 379 thousand. With the Biden administration working on a massive infrastructure package, there are expectations that upcoming NFP prints will exceed the 1-million mark, as the US economy continues to gather steam. There is resistance at 1.2640. This is followed by resistance at 1.2703. n the downside, there is pressure on support at 1.2521. Below, there is a support level is at 1.2465
by OANDA
CDN slightly higher ahead of job reportThe Canadian dollar is slightly higher in the Friday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2550, up 0.18% on the day. The Canadian dollar has enjoyed a solid week, with gains of close to one percent. The currency could pad those gains before the week is out, if Canada's job numbers improve in February as expected. The street consensus is that the economy created 98.5 thousand jobs, which would be a huge turnaround, after the dismal read of -212.8 in January. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 9.2% from the current 9.4%.  Canada's recovery has been a bumpy one, with the Covid vaccine rollout progressing slowly and lockdowns hampering economic growth. Still, there are positive signs as well, and the jump in oil prices has been good news for the economy and the Canadian dollar. Earlier in the week, the Bank of Canada sent an optimistic message to the market, stating that the economy was proving more resilient to a second wave of Covid-19 than expected. The bank kept interest rates at a record low 0.25%, and said rates would remain at these low levels until economic slack was absorbed. The BoE does not expect this to occur prior to 2023. Despite this optimistic message, the bank gave no clues that it was considering tapering its stimulus program. Over in the US, the focus will be on inflation, with the Producer Price Index expected to slow to 0.4% in February. This would mark a sharp drop from the 1.3% gain beforehand.  USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.2738, followed by 1.2821. Below, there is support at 1.2491, followed by 1.2409.
by OANDA
1
150 pips at USDCADIf you are looking for trades that can be executed quickly and have a good ratio. See USDCAD! About the 3: 1 ratio The potential profit is 150 pips at 1.2822 levels. The minimum stop that can be used is 1.2620 or 50 pips (the more conservative version is 1.2580) Regarding the quickness of movement: A decision on the interest rate by the Bank of Canada will be published today. Even if there is no change in interest rates, it is very likely that we will see a movement. Which allows for performance throughout the day. There are less than 9 hours left until the news! Technically, we have reason to buy even after the break of the one-hour trend! If you have questions about how to trade this or another situation, contact us! To support us, like and comment!
Long
by ForexTrendline
Cup & Handle Continuation Here we see a possible cup and handle continuation on grounds that the 0.5 fibonacci retracement level holds as an entry point within the ABC channel correction and the cups support. Target will be 1.0. However, if the 0.5 fibo level is pierced as a confirmed breakout we can presume a double top from the two peaks at the 1.0 level with the target being 0.00. Essentially my bias is long from the 50.0 level but until then the bear run continues. Good luck and follow me for more! P.S, this time last year around March, EURCAD had a fantastic bull run; repeat?, maybe.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn4565572
Inflation Rate Roundups Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
TVC:DXY
by Michael_Harding
2
Week ahead - Interest Rates, CPI's With the new strain of the Coronavirus causing concern across the world, many countries that continue to battle the Coronavirus hope that the vaccine gives them a head start before the strain does any more damage. This week will also see a new President take office, Democrat Joe Biden, on the 20th January US Local time. Here is your week ahead. All dates are in NZDT. Monday, 18th January – China's Retail Sales and GDP It seems like China was on their home run. Cases were initially squashed due to their strict lockdown earlier in 2020. The vaccine's advancement last year was the final factor in cementing China's success against the virus. However, a sharp outbreak in Nangong and Shijiazhuang shows the world that no matter how well your initial response is, only continuous and strict restrictions can keep the Coronavirus out of the community. Five days ago, a plot of land in Nangong, Hebei, laid flat. Now, it has become a 1500 room hospital for Covid-19 patients. This may be an overreaction by the Chinese government – however, they may just be preparing for the worst. This does give a sign of what the future may hold for countries like the United Kingdom and the United States, where cases are still at record highs. With that said, GDP and Retail Sales are predicted to increase on the back of a boost in the manufacturing sector alongside consumer spending the income they saved during the past lockdown. GDP is expected to rise to 6.1% in Q4, up from 4.9% in the previous quarter. Furthermore, retail sales are predicted to grow. 5.5% in the month of December, ahead of Chinese Near Year. Tuesday, 19th January – Germany's CPI figures The Coronavirus situation in many countries highlights the importance of implementing a strict lockdown and following it through. The benefits of a lockdown only work if community transmission is eliminated. However, many countries apart from a small handful tried to balance economic damage alongside the Coronavirus spread, which meant deescalating Coronavirus restrictions too early, rendering the lockdown useless. Germany is one of the nations that deescalated too quickly, causing massive spikes in their Coronavirus figures. Their total cases now stand at 2.04 Million, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel urgently trying to rush in more stringent restrictions to dampen the virus's spread. However, the recent spike is unlikely to affect analysts' expectation of Germany's CPI,s expected to print at -0.7% for the month of December, the same as a month before. Wednesday, 20th January – United Kingdom's CPI Figures With just under 3.6 Million initial doses having been handed out to the UK public, the United Kingdom's dire situation looks like it's starting to make a turnaround. The daily Coronavirus rate has slowly decreased in the past couple of days - however, Britons do not seem to be adhering to lockdown and social distancing rules. The third lockdown in the past 12 months, UK citizens have been seen gathering around beaches with no mask on. The UK government is banking on the vaccine to help control the virus's spread, as hospital beds continue to be filled with Coronavirus patients. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.5%, up from 0.3% a month before. Wednesday 20th January – Bank of Canada's Interest Rate Decision Canada seems to be avoiding the limelight – however, their Coronavirus cases are continuing to skyrocket after a semi-successful, non-strict lockdown. However, like all countries that did not eliminate community transmission, their cases soared as the latter part of 2020 approached. Coronavirus cases in Canada surpassed 700,000 yesterday, which may well play into their interest rate decision this week ahead. With the second wave all but destroying any optimism in Canada's economic recovery, analysts predict a rate cut of less than 0.25%, currently at 0.25%. Andrew Kelvin, Chief Canada Strategist at TD Securities, stated that "The fact that the Bank of Canada has kept the door open to ( a rate cut) in the recent month hasn't gone unnoticed by markets." Thursday, 21st and Friday 22nd January – Australia's Employment Change and Retail Sales Month over Month The news many Australian citizens wanted to hear – "There are no remaining hotspot definitions," Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt stated at a press conference, with only one community transmission in the past couple of days. However, he warned that their not out of the woods yet, stating that "invevitably, there will be days of new cases. There will be days where there may be a requirement for Commonwealth hotspot definition to be reintroduced. But they'll be done on a the basis of that, and cases". This may indicate that Australia is finally able to start its economic recovery – alongside the implementation of the Trans-Atlantic bubble between Australia and New Zealand. Employment Change is expected to decrease from +90,000 in November to +50,000 in December. Thursday, 21st January – Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decision Similar to Canada, Japan did not implement a proper lockdown. Instead, they opted for an increase in social distancing measures alongside confidence in their citizens to continue to wear face masks. Just like Canada, initial results were promising. However, as the year passed, it was evident that community transmission is inevitable if it was not thoroughly squashed out. Currently, Japan sits on 325,000 Coronavirus cases, with daily cases reaching an all-time high of 8,000 just a couple of days ago. With negative rates in Japan, monetary policy moves to the downside are rare as not to dig a hole the Bank of Japan can not come out of. Chances are, the BoJ will opt for other tools for yield control, such as asset purchases. However, analysts at Bloomberg Economics forecast the BoJ to keep rates as is not only this week ahead but for the whole year. Busy week ahead. Trade safe, and most importantly, stay safe.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by BlackBull_Markets
Bank of Canada to Cut Interest Rates Next Week?My readers and followers are up to date on the ongoing currency war. Central banks are attempting to weaken their currencies in order to boost inflation and exports. The export part is self explanatory and well known, but the inflation aspect involves the classical economics definition of inflation. Inflation is the weakening of a currency where it takes more of the weaker currency to buy something which gives the appearance of prices rising. It really is the currency that is weakening. Now the Bank of Canada is set to make its next move in the global currency war. Just a quick recap: central banks have three ways to weaken their currencies: 1.Rhetoric. This is the most common way central bankers weaken or strengthen a currency. Also why the press conferences are closely monitored by traders. Chairmen (and women) use diction and rhetoric as a way of telling market participants what they are planning on doing in the future. The market reacts and prices this in. The currency moves in the way the central bank wanted. 2. Interest Rate Cuts. This is the next step up using interest rate differentials to either strengthen or weaken the currency. 3. Quantitative Easing. The final and most extreme way to weaken the currency using supply and demand principles. Most central banks have exhausted 2 and 3. The European Central Bank is the one I have been following for awhile. The ECB is trying to weaken the Euro as the European Union is a heavy export union. The problem has been the US Dollar, the true winner of the currency war so far. Since the US Dollar is the reserve currency, if the US Dollar is dropping, the other currency is strengthening. This includes the Euro, the Pound, the Loonie, the Aussie Dollar, the Kiwi Dollar, the Yen etc. The ECB increased their emergency asset program up to 1.8 Trillion Euro's in December. The Euro popped. Now all the ECB has left is to cut rates deeper into the negative. Expect this to happen. "Money markets see an increased chance of the Bank of Canada cutting interest rates closer to zero, as tightening economic restrictions to contain a second wave of COVID-19 cases offset optimism that activity will rebound later this year. Interest rates were thought to have hit rock bottom in Canada after they were slashed 150 basis points last March to a record low of 0.25 per cent, a level the Bank of Canada considered the effective lower bound. But in November, Governor Tiff Macklem said a lower floor could allow Canada’s central bank to ease further if the economy weakens." After these statements, the expectations for Canada to cut rates next week has increased. But don't worry, it is not negative rates. Yet. The Bank of Canada is expected to do a microcut, or an interest rate cut less than 25 basis points. The Bank of Canada's rate currently is 0.25%, and expectations are rates to decrease to 0.10%. Microcuts have occurred already. "Other central banks have moved in small increments. In November, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy rate by 15 basis points to 0.1 per cent, while the Bank of England did the same last March." The Bank of England is now expecting to enter negative rates sometime before June of this year. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be next, and I am sure the Bank of Canada and then eventually the Federal Reserve will follow. All to attempt to weaken the currency, and why I have been saying the trade is out of fiat. Hard assets/commodities and cryptocurrencies are the way to play this going forward. Let's take a look at the USDCAD. The Loonie has been appreciating against the US Dollar as the Dollar (DXY) keeps sliding. You have seen in my previous posts, that I believe the DXY is at a MAJOR support zone and a relief rally is highly probable. Funnily enough, the USDCAD is also at a major support zone, and is looking like the Dollar will strengthen against the Loonie. On my chart, I have drawn a trendline which is a popular way to determine when a trend shift occurs. If price closes above the trendline, the Loonie will depreciate against the US Dollar. However, I am hoping we develop a right shoulder to create a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline being the zone above in blue at the 1.30 zone. This would imply price pops up, and then retraces before breaking and closing above. The interest rate cut could be the catalyst for the reversal pattern. This was expected. This is the currency war.
Long
by Uncharted-FX
1