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ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.11.25This linkage with Oil is a well known school, which believed only in absolute freeing moves can be a forced to be reckoned with. In 90 cases out of 100 I consider it worth recommending. Even after the defensive breakdown in Oil with Covid chapter I, it should in no way b overestimated that we are suddenly reaching the previous breakdown manoeuvre. Thus in this position, what is in play is a cleansing of USD shorts as the move got out of hand. Some large macro players were caught on the CAD bid yesterday, out of position if you ask me and well into the middle of the range. Asking for a squeeze up towards 1.306x and 1.314x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
USDCAD BREAKING UP📌 USDCAD A short idea which is essentially intended to cast some more light over the election positioning moves We played a very nice momentum move this morning after breaking through the WEAK Tokyo defence 👇 The process of continuing is automatic for algos, it enables the occupation of 1.35xx as capital ensures ULTIMATE safety in the greenback at a time of HIGH RISK via covid & U.S. elections. Basically, both drivers can be considered a tempo breaker for those wanting to load full sized positions on risk markets. Oil crashing via lockdowns triggering the next demand shock to the energy markets. Dems still in their diapers and we are out of time on stimulus, as I keep saying, by the time these things get to Washington they are so enwrapped in self interest, so enwrapped in all of the dirty political BS that naturally bring all issues to extremes. Oil has trifling odds of touching 33/32, a breakthrough there will open next 21 for a more solid support. I will be posting a new strategy report for Oil into the elections at the end of this week. Surprisingly, tradingview is very quiet...
Long
by ridethepig
1
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.10.28📍 I am trying something out here with some faster flow charts. This is of similar nature to the preparations and strategy notes we made in EURUSD: In order to liberate the highs in USDCAD, buyers must take out the Tokyo defence. They are hoping to prevent the breakup for as long as possible, the annoying notion for sellers is Canada cases accelerating quickly and lockdowns chapter II entering into play. We also have managed to provoke the bull into attack from the Oil side. The supply side outweighs the demand side and will only continue to widen as national lockdowns enter back into play. The moves lower in Oil are also playable of course. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming and if these shorter-term flow charts are becoming more useful for those trading the faster flows.
Long
by ridethepig
'Giant Panda' surrender of the AUD bid📌 Surrendering of the AUD bid The following play is an example of how easily a premature surrender of the ladder can lead to a correction. In light of that, for the news flow we have a two course dinner: 1️⃣ A dovish RBA on deck notably showing signs of distress with Australian 10Y Yield and opening the door for more QE. This is going to keep the downward pressure on AUD in the immediate term while CB's and governments around the globe prepare to tap into the overdraft one more time. 2️⃣ Regular readers will know we have been tracking PBOC for some time. The "Giant Panda" has been spotted (more than once on the AUD bid and quite practicably so. The importance here comes from them effectively pressing the release valve via banning Australian coal. 3️⃣ Any last minute USD outflows ahead of election event risk will be positive CAD in the immediate term. A Trump victory would then likely unwind those, while a Biden sweep I suspect accelerates the flows from US to Canada. 📌 The following swing that we are tracking is a combinatory complication . From a flows perspective, sellers can resign after testing the previous resistance turned support, with the threat of penetration towards the previous centre in the orderblock. The floor will depend on risk passing, for now let's keep working shorts and use CAD to park as a defensive move to ride the pig on any last minute U.S election outflows; 0.930x -> 0.900x looks within reach. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.09.28Flows are starting to become more mixed as we reach the final few sessions in the Quarter. The structural decline of the dollar remains but we have some room for tactical longs in USDCAD. This is emphasised by the fact that the DXY still has a final manoeuvre to make before we step down one more time: In the short term it is buyers move to make, they have put their cards face up and with enormous effect a squeeze of the highs will make things a lot easier to play in the MT and LT decline: In a nutshell.... Continue to look for longs in USDCAD over the coming days for a test of 1.350x. Before positioning for a swing down for later in the year.
Long
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | ADP/NFP Combo Play📌 What we are trading here is an event risk play. This swing illustrated combining both ADP and NFP prints. It is also characteristic for the fearlessness with which USD sellers can to a certain point neglect their own weakness. The loonie with some broad based USD profit taking as widely expected after clearing initial targets. I am looking to recycle USDCAD shorts on rallies into 1.315x providing initial resistance. It looks like this move lower can at least test 1.295x. To avoid jumping the gun, shorts are only worth considering at 1.315x (soft resistance) as we are trading an internal structure that must inspire flows. We are trying to nip any rally with ADP prints in the bud with the still latent power of the structural USD devaluation. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
14
ridethepig | CAD Market Commentary 2020.04.08Commodity currencies reached the 🔑 value levels to load for this final leg down in risk. As mentioned here last week 0.62xx was the level to load in AUDUSD and NZDUSD. I also loaded an entire short CAD portfolio with USDCAD testing the 1.395x outguessing a negative outcome tomorrow. In best case scenario we will see a ‘handshake’ which wont be enough to offset this huge demand shock, I will keep an ear on the wires with live coverage resuming as usual from today. I am closely tracking for the final sweep to the lows in Oil, for those following in the previous strategies we are entering into fill or kill territory with the final $15 targets: Monthly For all those wanting to dig deeper and build a basket around short CAD I would recommend unless you know what you are doing to start your positions with a hedge, outguessing the flop tomorrow will trigger a major sell off in the black stuff. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Long
by ridethepig
2
Bank of America (BoA) / Short Term AnalysisWith the index that started to rise after the abundant money support given to the markets after the pandemic, we saw that this stock's price could rise to the level of fib 0.618. After this situation, the price seems to be between the rising trendline and the fib 0.382 level for now. If this continues and acts as a rising triangle pattern, the price may reach the tested fib 0.618 level in August or October. Only personal opinions and ideas. Does not include "Legal Investment Advice"...
NYSE:BACLong
by EmoteK
ridethepig | GBPCAD Market Commentary 2020.07.24⚡️ GBPCAD Fast Flows Here we are trading the breakdown in GBPCAD, with the possible intention of adding on momentum. The question is whether Seller's position is strong enough to put up with such a hammer? Possible similar moves to the previous crash which we traded live: By losing yesterday's lows in GBPCAD, buyers defeat will be seen and the combination of a minimum ABC sequence follows. Tracking 1.708x => 1.689x as the combination blow. But we can of course take it leisurely, assuming the breakdown occurs the flows will be so strong that we need have no anxiety of continuing to add size on. This is because we are able to avoid with a cheeky grin all of our unaware opponents, no matter the reply. Strong and decisive... but so clean and simple. One of my favourite moves. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | CAD Quarterly Outlook 📍 USDCAD Prepare for a flush in CAD with the ever-present threat of Canadian tariffs from Trump. Protectionism is excellent at the best of times...let alone in the middle of a pandemic... right 🥺 The unwinding is picking up speed - RSI on track for the decline and pressure looks set to carry us into the 70 handle. => A possible breakdown can also now be met with the USDCAD flows. As you can see, the CAD weakness has affected the basing structure and now sellers of the Canadian Dollar will deprive buyers the fruits of their deeply laid plans of Dollar devaluation across the board. Thanks to a little tactical finesse, to this trade.
TVC:CXYShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | CADCHF Market Commentary 2020.07.01📌 Marking the start of Short-term flows with CADCHF... The initial move down was grandiose which, however, was not strictly able to test the 0.690x lows. Sellers would have won the battle easily and continued the breakdown via weaker CAD fundamentals. => Instead luring unaware buyers into a compression range to later suffer from an embarrassment of a further breakdown. Tracking closely the 0.695x support, we all know about the diversionary role that CHF plays in risk, so I shall refrain from further comment. With the clash certainly decided over the coming 'hours' the configuration offers plenty of scope for manoeuvring from the sell side. Thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.06.17📍 USDCAD On the Canada side... This flow has become particularly interesting over the past few sessions, large macro hands front running BOC and piling into corporate debt and helping CAD hold at these levels. The risk to Canada really comes from the housing market, as soon as the stimulus stabilisers are off there will need to be another miracle to avoid panic selling. With stimulus retreating before the labour market has healed, the pressures on homes will become a blunder. This is so obvious and would be a blunder to miss. Now we are tracking a return back home, to the mean in a good mood - If buyers resign on the retest we can see the wave truncated (we'll keep updating the charts for this one). For those tracking EURCAD ...
Long
by ridethepig
6