BOC
LOONIE Likely To test 1.30600 After EMA 50 & Trendline Break Hello Viewers, this is an instant trade signal! Therefore, please have a look at the main chart for the following vital trade details:
• ENTRY POINT
• STOP LOSS
• TAKE PROFIT
• RISK TO REWARD
The setup may look simple but I can assure you it is NOT. There are various in depth technical and fundamental analysis incorporated behind the execution. I would very much love to explain these two aspects here but doing that would consume ample amount of time which could affect the appropriate entry point behind this trade! So, to keep it simple the main chart just displays the simplified technical view of this trade.
My way of performing technical analysis basically starts by breaking down the monthly Timeframe down until the One Hour charts. The following are the aspects I focus most on when performing technical analysis:
• Draw Support & Resistance through key common psychological levels on M & W Charts. This helps me to see where the price might stall or breakout.
• Draw Trendlines to determine the dynamic support and resistance levels present on the charts. This helps me to determine where the price might stall and most importantly help determine the path of least resistance behind the active trade.
• I also tend to use EMA 50 on all the Timeframes. This EMA 50 is proficiently proven to act as dynamic support and resistance and is vital behind all my analysis.
• Lastly, I tend to use classic pivot levels to determine my entry, stop loss and take profit levels. The combination of this and all of the above helps me determine the precise and likely trade targets behind the setup.
Another aspect of my way of analysis is reading a lot of news to determine the fundamental aspects affecting any trade. After the technical analysis is performed, I tend to match if the fundamental aspect really supports my technical analysis.
Therefore, as you could see, putting all my thoughts here would surely take up a lot of time which could make the price drift away from the entry price thus affecting the Risk to reward ratio. I understand it is vital for many of you to know the details behind this trade setup, and so if you are interested you could send me message and I will try to share most of what I can!
The Above words are just template I use in all my trades. Shall there be any updates I will provide them here. Thank you
Bank Of America (BAC) Calm Before The StormBank Of America has been on a rise after the 2008 US Stock Market crash. No coincidence as many US companies have been rising since then. This is not an excuse to get off track and believe all is good now. If you take a look at the bigger picture, you can see this company has had a decline soo huge, even the attempts to pump the value back to pre-2008 figures has been failing. There is still much to go for the rise before this stock can become stable again. It will need to take a wild spike along with some sort of unimaginable great news to spike prices back up that high to over $54.00/share. With that being said, I will stick to my technical's and as of now it is bearish. The chart along with my own technical analysis should explain the rest to the crowd. Just be patient and avoid greed in these times of uncertainty. I am prepared to go long if price signals me to do so, but my overall bias is short.
CADCHF Sell opportunityIf you don't want to buy AUDCAD, consider selling CADCHF, since they mostly move relative to each other and selling pressure is significantly higher on this pair.
Again we see a broken trendline, ascending this time, awaiting a possible retest. We also see the presence of the 61.8 Fibonacci level that could also present a temporary support, even though I believe that the price has already reacted to the level and will continue downwards.
Overall sentiment is bearish.
Good luck and follow me for more!
(excuse the money triangle)
AUDCAD Buy opportunityAfter a recurring descending trendline breakout and obvious bear cessation, the price hit a powerful support made visible by a double bottom.
Another descending trendline was also broken awaiting a possible retest whereby I will place my long position with a Stop below a secondary support not far from the trendline. However, if there is no retracement I will look to place my long positions above the current target/resistance.
Good luck and follow me for more ideas!
USDCAD Likely To Test 1.3000 Amid Stubborn BOC and Risk ON Mood!The main chart shows the WEEKLY TF of USDCAD pair. There was a neat ascending channel that was violated a few months ago and the price went to test around 1.30200 level. Since then the price has been steadily rising until it HIT 1.33600 level. This created a short term ascending channel which was clearly violated a couple of days back and now the price is likely to target 1.3000 level.
The above chart shows the DAILY TF of USDCAD, which shows the channel has been violated and its potential target!
The main chart shows the price has been confined in a triangle and the price is likely to target the lower end of the trendline which lies at around 1.3000 level.
To support this technical aspects, the fundamental aspects also align neatly together. First of all the Bank of CANADA left the interest unchanged and continue their wait and see approach rather than just easing like the other central banks. This is bullish for the LOONIE, however i feel the price will hit 1.3000 level after which the bank will start to be dovish and the price will likely bounce and test the 1.34000 level in the future. To add to this, the demand for OIL at the moment is adequate as the talks of trade deal continue. Since OIL is the major driver behind this CAD pair, if the talks continue to progress well we could see LOONIE get stronger.
I am already short on USDCAD since 3 months ago when the main weekly channel broke, however the price only HIT 1.30200 level before reversing. My take profit at the moment is 1.3000 with SL at 1.34000. Should you wish to enter you can do so if and only if the RR is 1 or greater than 1. Cheers
AUDCAD SellAscending triangle downward breakout with a possible retest.
Good luck and follow me for more!
CADJPY Bullish ideaThe price is currently in consolidation within an ascending channel.
Following an obvious inverse head and shoulders pattern along with an upside triangle breakout, the price could most likely head to the major resistance indicated above.
Good luck!
AUDCAD BoC win. Now we waitawaiting trend reversal setup now that we caught the news impulse.
Structure said BUY
News said: NO CHANGE
Result: AUD jumps directly to previous hourly high.
Now this trade is paid for with an extra risk amount. Next we compound the interest earned on the news. :)
I truly love trading.
PS> next wave can take us a bit lower. Wait for the break of the channel and a kiss goodbye before entering a new position.
As always trade with risk management. I hope some of you caught some of the profits on this news release! Good luck out there traders!
AUDCAD Long ideaThe sentiment is bullish due to the fact that the price has just broken out of a descending channel awaiting a likely retest.
The channel is within a descending triangle pattern, one of which might be a continuation or reversal pattern, telling us to either hold our positions when the target is reached or go short.
Good luck!
Fed Protocol, BoC, and the UKAs we all know “the market is addictive to news”, it is not wondering that yesterday’s testifying to Congress by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the announcement of the Bank of Canada decision on monetary policy, as well as a fairly extensive block of statistical data from the UK, led to increased volatility in financial markets.
Let's analyze these events in chronological order.
Great Britain relaxed quite positive data, which triggered the pound growth. Recall, we recommended its purchases, so those of our readers who looked up to our advice made good money. GDP and industrial production value have increased we cannot but mention the data on construction and trade balance that pleasantly surprised, appeared much better than forecasts.
Bank of Canada holds interest rate steady, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that rate cut is not a panacea.
Jerome Powell’s testimony at Congress. Markets expected him to make statements/comments about the Fed rate cut. However, Powell noted that the risks remain steady for the US economy, due to business investment slow down caused by the trade war, while inflation remains weak, which suggests that interest rates might be reduced this month.
After Powell's testimony, the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting were published. Which only strengthened markets confidence in lowering the rates in the USA. The discussion of the Fed members about the prospects for monetary policy at the last meeting showed that there is a strong bias towards cut rates.
The result is a short dollar. But inflation statistics from the US, as well as the second day of Powell’s testimony, may well trigger a rise in volatility in pairs with the dollar.
Our trading recommendations for today are as follows. We continue to look for opportunities for selling the dollar (USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD). Sell the Russian ruble. We are looking for points for sales of gold, which again climbed very high.
Loonie Crosses and BoCBy Andria Pichidi - July 10, 2019
Bank of Canada’s announcement is expected to result in no change in rates and a repeat of the data-driven mantra. Given that recent data has been consistent with their ongoing view that the economy is on the mend from the Q4/Q1 weakness, the takeaway should be for continued steady policy through year end. For example, the latest data was yesterday with Canada’s housing starts and permits showing a well-supported market through mid-year. Housing starts surged 24.8% to 245.7k in June after falling to 196.8k in May from 230.7k in April. The “trend” in housing starts (6-month moving average) improved to 205.8k in June from 200.5k in May. Meanwhile, the separate permit value measure plunged 13.0% in May after jumping 16.0% in April.
The BoC also releases the Monetary Policy Report alongside the announcement, followed by Governor Poloz’s usual Q&A with the press.
While the Fed and ECB have leaned dovishly recently, spurring market hopes for more easing, we do not expect the BoC to join the club. Recent economic data has come in close to the BoC’s expectations, tracking an improving economy. Trade uncertainty remains a hefty source of downside risk, but it is also a potential upside risk too (if/when the US and China finally reach an agreement). The currently accommodative policy setting is providing ample stimulus to an economy that is well into the recovery phase. Economic data is housing related this week.
Currency Market
USDCAD
rallied to 1.3140 yesterday, up from last week’s lows of 1.3036. The move came on general USD strength, which has been maintained since last Friday’s US jobs report, and on the lack of Oil price follow through gains. In June the USDCAD has dropped by nearly 530 pips, however in the long-term picture is following an upwards path, since August 2017 from 1.2060 lows. Despite June’s underperformance, the latest weekly doji candle along with the bounce this week above 200-week SMA, spread some hopes for a potential recovery of the pair. However, this scenario hasn’t been confirmed yet. A reversal to the upside could be suggested only if a morning star pattern is formed along with a move above 50-day SMA at 1.3240. Support holds at the bottom of the weekly channel and the June’s low at 1.3036. Intraday, Resistance holds at 1.3045-1.3060 (9-day high and 23.6% Fib. since May 31). Support is set at 1.3100.
The daily technical indicators are weak, as RSI and MACD have been configuring below neutral, however, they present slight strengthening of positive bias as RSI is at 40 from 31 low and MACD lines are above signal line.
USDCAD weekly and Daily
AUDCAD, on the other hand, broke the 8 years’ Support at the 0.9100 level, as bears look to be in full control this year. Currently it extends its Bollinger Bands further to the downside in the medium and long term charts, below 20- , 50- and 200-month SMA. Meanwhile, technical indicators have been negatively configured, as negative bias seems to get stronger and stronger. All the above suggest that the pair has a lot of downwards path to cover, while the break of the 0.9100 level opened the doors towards 2010 lows.
AUDCAD Monthly and Weekly
CADCHF has continued moving lower for a second consecutive day after the peak seen at 0.7611 on Monday. The move came in general on the anticipation of BoC statement. Overall, the CADCHF’s lookout remains positive with RSI sloping above 50 the past 2 weeks, while MACD spiked well above signal line within the positive territory. This suggests further positive bias in the medium term. In the near term meanwhile, the 2 days’ weakness looks to be a correction on the sharp rally seen since June 25, as the asset holds well above 20-, 50- and 200-day SMA but also the midpoint (50% Fib level) of the 2-weeks’ incline.
Support holds at 0.7535-0.7545 intraday and Resistance is set at 0.7572.
CADCHF Daily
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GBPCAD - Pullback. Time to double up the profitsGet ready for a pullback in price correction. Pretty great trade setup leading right into the ABCD pennant.
Refer to linked old idea.
If you are new I suggest looking at the old one as well. The more you see how I trade...the easier it will be for you to follow. Remember there is never an exact price..but a zone of prices..use these zones, news, and market sentiment/technical analysis to your favor. These are your weapons. Use them all.
Short AUDCAD - Fundamental Short BiasOn 5 June I went short AUDCAD at 0.96364 due to a reaction at a prior key level and a fundamental short bias. Stop to be trailed as position plays out.
Getting long USDCADThose who have been following the current USDCAD call (see attached: "Oil weighing heavy on CAD") will know we are already positioned in longs here. So what we are trying to do is add another position on a "sell the fact leg" in oil after cuts on the supply side are fully cooked in ... (so time to start working the sell-side again there.)
The dollar is also approaching buy levels and as a result buying the retrace leg here in USDCAD is a good opportunity.
Lets see how it plays out
(For those wondering red fib is from a previous swing and can be ignored I am publishing this on the way back to the office)
USDCAD [Intraday] BOC buy the rumors sell the facts ?It's Bank of Canada day ;)
Hike is expected by the Mr Market
In my opinion it's big "if", even if they hike it will be dovish hike.
So I do expect lower levels ahead of or right after ( stop hunt ) and then higher prices towards 1,35.
Invalidation of that bullish view with daily close below 1,3150.
USDCAD: Major topping patternI think $USDCAD might be ready to trend down from here and fulfill the long term chart pattern implications. A long term decline back down to the mode in the 6-month timeframe is possible, but won't be a straight line down naturally. Ideally one would seek to short it when it gets overbought in weekly charts, for example, and aim to cover once oversold...rinse and repeat. This will provide countless trading opportunities for those who are patient and know how to read charts using Key Hidden Levels and Time@Mode.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
