BOC
BoC on Deck this month ... fading corrective rallies in USDCAD=> We still maintain our USDCAD short position from earlier in the week and recommend selling all corrective rallies here ahead of the BoC rate hike widely expected this month.
=> Although the rate hike is expected this trade is far from crowded and we see incoming data to keep the BoC on track with tightening monetary policy.
=> Odds of any hikes are close to 90% probability (in other words it is a done deal) which makes complete sense considering that the decreased political uncertainty allows the BoC to completely focus on better fundamentals when setting policy (a rarity in this world...)
=> We are expecting payrolls to reach 195k and average hourly earnings expected to come in at 2.9% YoY.
=> Markets are expecting a better outcome, especially considering the price action we've seen in US yields and the USD via ADP and ISM employment components.
=> Good luck all trading this live
USDCAD Uptrendline Support Broken -- Short Swing playWhite line will be the trendline resistance for the play
Red line is the stop loss area
Daily view of the trendline support:
First TP is 1.25 or till the white trendline resistance is showing some weakness
70 pips more to drop or 2.5% more on the downsideChina SH composite is approaching 2016 low at 2638.
Adding the background the BOC raised the forward reserve requirement for foreign exchange and RMB surged.
If look at the down side, 70 pips to drop/-2.5%, will possibly see a resistance showed at the 2016 retracement low @ 2638.
Personally also considered it as the psychological support of investors.
Hope the index can stop there and enter into a new rebound. goldtrader666
USDCAD: Low risk long entry...I like the $USDCAD pair here for a swing trade opportunity, given the trend in the $DXY chart, and in the $EURUSD and $USDJPY pairs, as well as movement in oil and gold, I reckon the trade has very good odds. Market participants have been pricing in the fact that the Fed won't hike rates again this year, but it isn't clear if that will be the case or not. Either way, the technical picture is clear, and given the economic growth in the US, this trade has decent odds of panning out favorably.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USD/CAD - Ascending Triangle to PlayUSD/CAD - Trading Plan
Investors are advised to keep an eye on $1.3125, below this the USD/CAD is likely to stay bearish. Whereas, the pair can stay bullish above $1.3125 until $1.3250. Good luck!
Buying The USD/CAD From Macro Fibonacci SupportIn the event the USD/CAD closes negative, it will mark the third straight red candlestick on the daily chart. July has extended the negative sentiment of late June, with price seemingly on a collision course with the 1.3000 handle. If we see a continued fall, then a buy from just above the macro 62% Fibonacci retracement is good trade location to the bull.
Here is the trade:
1)Entry: Buy 1.3036
2)Stop Loss: 1.2994
3)Profit Target: 1.3082
4)Risk vs Reward Ratio: 1/1
The optimal timing for this trade is before the Monday forex session close. However, the recommendation will remain valid until Wednesday’s BoC Interest Rate Announcements. If it hasn’t gone live by that time, pull the orders.
GBPCAD ahead of BoC meetingGBP/CAD downtrend on the daily chart could be ending as price tries to break above the cloud. However, if BoC remains hawkish this week after an expected hike, it could cause that attempt to fail and result in a close below the Ichimoku cloud again. Keep an eye out for a good risk/reward trade if that should happen.
CADJPY - Expecting another 3-wave lowerShort term, I'm expecting another 3-wave down towards 83.57 level.
However, the overall bias for the longer term is still to the upside.
Disclaimer - this is not a trade call. Make sure you have a proper trading and risk management plan before executing any trades in the market.
2018 Macro Outlook - CADJPY Bullish BiasPrice has broken above the trend structure after a correction since September 2017. We are holding onto a bullish bias for this pair, potentially targeting 94.60 area.
I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea.
Have a great trading year ahead!
CAD/JPY - Is History Repeating Itself?Enter now or wait for Trend Line Break and .382 Fib rejection candles to form near the Yellow Circle on chart.
Past two years, we have left left this zone
Long USDCAD Trading PlanUSD Bullish Rationale :
1. Optimism tax reform bill
2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment
3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar
CAD Bearish Rationale :
1. I am expecting the effect of Dovish CAD is not in the price yet hence plenty more to the downside for CAD
Factors could invalidate the trading plan :
1. Any positive development in the oil market (Oil Rally is generally supportive to the CAD)
2. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Building Permit numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 1.7%, Prior : 3.8%) - Predicted Surprise : 1.60% (Reuters Poll)
3. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Ivey PMI numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 62.7, Prior : 63.8)
4. USD - Negative (Actual > Expected) Initial Job Claims Numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 240k, Prior : 238k) - Reuters SmartEstimate (C) : 237.4k
Levels to trade :
A : If price breaks and close above 128.100, I will Long the pair as long as I have the minimum 2:1 reward/risk ratio. The target price rationale are : a) it is within the average daily range b) psychological level (i.e 00s) c)
B : I will not rule out a correction towards the daily pivot. In the event of this happening, I will look for technical reason to Long this pair. The target price rationale are : it is within the average daily range b) It is potentially today's high
USDCAD Bank Of Canada Rate - REVIEWSo BOC, despite of the positive economic data past few months, remained "cautious" about them stepping off the gas even further (aka raising interest rates). It took me several seconds to speed read the statement, digest it, intepret it and make an actionable plan based on that information. At the time, I thought it was pretty dovish, not VERY dovish.. but dovish enough. I looked at the chart price have moved considerably high as well, but based on my research events like this tend to hit 100-120 pips. So i took a "scalping" trade and made a target at 1.2800. I made 2% from this trade.
*I apologize for the written mistakes I made in my CAD trading plans.
Trading the potential divergent sentiment (Short GBPCAD)As long as the uncertainty over Brexit divorce deals and irish border remains, I will be bullish on the sterling overall. A hawkish tone from BOC later today could be a major catalyst for this pair to move lower. A positive development on the brexit issue and a dovish tone from BOC later are the major risks for this trading plan.
Trading the Potential Monetary Policy Divergence (Long CADJPY)BOC Rate later today. Market expects the BOC to hold the rate today but a least dovish or hawkish statement are expected later after series of positive economic data for Canada. BOJ as we all know is still deep in their easing zone. If BOC reveal they are planning to raise interest rate in the future, then Boom.. thats as much diverged as it could get in terms of monetary policy.
GBPCAD Triangle/Wedge/Pennant ExampleFundamentally we know that GBP is strong and that CAD is weak. GBP had a good beat on GDP data yesterday. CAD has been weaker due to the neutral/dovish statements made yesterday by the Bank of Canada. There was a large initial move yesterday and we are currently in a pullback. While in the pullback the a Triangle/Wedge/Pennant formation developed. I know they are all technically different, but to me they all represent a consolidation before a breakout. I use Fundamentals to determine direction. So to me, they are all more or less the same.
I thought this was a good example. Hopefully it continues to break upwards.
BTC - History repeated?I'm no analytics person by any means - however I have always looked at what happened in the past and are there any similarities.
So after reviewing BTC I noticed how similar early July of this past year is to what we are currently seeing in BTC. Maybe I'm just not experienced enough but I see a nice jump coming from now (10/01) til a couple few days (10/03)??
NZDCAD Long set up-28.09.2017CAD is bound to lose some of its previous gains in the coming trading days. Governor Poloz and BoC are wary of CAD strength while RBNZ retracted their previous bear tone. Technical set up points to some positive swaps and appreciating NZD going forward.
Trade as follows:
Buy: 0.90
Stop Loss: Below 0.89
Take Profit: 0.94
More details here: forex.today
CAD/CHF Reversal Looming Good evening comrades,
With the recent rally in the loonie resulting from multiple interest moves by the BOC, I'm looking to form a consus regarding the posoitoning of the market going into tomorrow's report. Personally, I beleive that the data release will result in a downside correction for the CAD seeing as the currency incredibly firm already. Now, putting risk on in anticipation of news reports is basically a coin flip in most instances, but seeing as the CAD is very strong (specifacally CAD/CHF) I believe that the risk/reward prospects of selling CAD/CHF going into tomorrow is attractive.
Would love to discuss this with other traders.
Cheers,
AL
Short AUDCAD - residue play post rate hike (Late Entry)This morning as the beginning of Asia session you can see that the market bid up AUD prepping for a good Trade Balance Data. This is kinda hit and miss historically, I just did a quick statistics analysis to data release since end of 2013 and the missed forecast currently at 49%. Not very encouraging for a certain bet.
The price action up until the announcement was strongest in AUDCAD, which again tilting the odds in the Short favor. If data is a hit, it likely won't move much further given the pair has had a big retracement since CAD rate hike last night, on the other hand a miss would prepare you the best entry to squeeze out the last juice from the rate hike. Again, retail IG Sentiment is Long, I wanna be Short.
Technical level was 0.98 and this week Pivot at 0.9817.
I did not take the trade as I was away from desk but if it's retracing to just around the 0.98-0.9792 (Last Week Pivot) I will enter. Target wise, I'd love to hit the 0.971-0.972 area but it won't get there if there is no further support from CAD news coming Friday. As for AUD, I don't expect Governor Lowe to make any hawkish remarks. It's still a bit of a risk event that if you make early entry now and trail your stop loss just before the speech, I believe that gives a better protection.
USDCAD - Waiting for CAD Rate AnnouncementThe USDCAD pair has been sideway after a quick drop and rebounce as 3 of the Fed members spoke dovishly.
Today is gonna be a big day for CAD. Generally since Bank of Canada is expected to keep rate, the hint will be in the statement so we may see a bit more volatility back and forth during the announcement as people figuring out their next move. Looking forward on the calendar we generally have good numbers coming out for CAD while USD has some mixed signal with Trade Balance expected to be worsen while ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI expected to be good.
Overall sentiment is bearish for USDCAD in my opinion, I would expect USDCAD to drift downward or flat toward news announcement. The IG Sentiment has Net Long so again, this makes me bearish. In fact if the USDCAD proceed to rise until nearer the rate decision, I will look to go Short as this provides very good risk-reward.
Technical level to watch is round number 1.24 and 1.23, Weekly Pivot 1.2377.
GBPCAD - Overextended and Pricing in a weak CADThis is another CAD pair that I look to play. GBP's news this week has not been positive while the coming expected good news such as Manufacturing Production m/m is on Friday and in my opinion the rally yesterday is quite premature especially with CAD rate decision due today.
The analysis is related to my USDCAD pick, looking at price action so far the GBPCAD pair can potentially a better play of CAD strength. IG Sentiment again showing net Long so I'll put on a contrarian hat.
Technical levels to watch are round numbers 1.62, 1.61 and Pivot levels 1.621, 1.611. I will look to go short nearer to the CAD announcement.
EURCAD - A reversal soon?Will EURCAD repeat what it has done back in early June? We are seeing a similar pattern forming recently -
1) Price has been inching higher with a loss of strength and momentum;
2) We are seeing a divergence in RSI and price; and
3) Price is entering the minimum expected area of wave 5.
All these factors gave us the expectation that price has a higher probability of reversing to the downside than going much higher.
Whether we are seeing a short term retracement to the downside, or a full reversal lower, our short term interest remains a sell bias.
*Disclaimer - this is just a humble perspective of the market. Do not take this as a trade call. Make sure you have your proper trading and risk management plan before engaging on any trade.
