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GBP/USD forecast /post BOE/BREXITGU is technically cooking next move after a bit longer period of consolidation after 2 upward legs which created this new bullish trend from weekly support. Dollar paired some losses since October while GBP used that opportunity with combination from positive tones for Brexit. This week we will also get BOE rate decision which will definitely increase volatility on the markets due to almost even chances of cut-hold decision chances. Market is more sensitive and cautious since 'Coronavirus' fears which sent market into more risk-off causing dollar and safe havens to appreciate vs risk currencies. Also post brexit trade talks will be interesting to watch and it is still difficult to fundamentally forecast longer term Sterling direction. However, in such situation technicals and banks positioning is worth to watch. We are still bullish on pound and support looks good so far, not breaking down to create lower lows! For good r/r ratio I will take my chances going long on bullish overview. One of the rare times I disagree with sentiment with small stake, but good plan! If drop happens, I will look to re-enter lower.
Long
by fxmonarchy
GBPAUD waiting for the break of the rangePrice again testing the upper trend line after a false break from election period. Upcoming week is key and all attention on UK Brexit conclusion. Boris finally pushed his Brexit plan and on Friday 31st UK is leaving the EU. Also on Thursday we have BoE, Carney's last meeting, with various call from board members to potentially cut the rates to boost the economy. 2019 had the slowest growth since 2012 and some members already expressed dovish outlook on the rate decision. So lots of fundamentals this week for GBP. Technical range in the comments shows that a breakout trade is likely here. Good Luck!
by Antonio_trader
3
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.14The power to breakdown has been developed knowingly and systematically, unlike chop/consolidation which frequently occurs. The effect of the breakdown is heightened by BOE turning very dovish and calling up for Sterling devaluation, which in their eyes must be required for offsetting the loss in UK market access. Compare the following two diagrams: Sellers step in on the election day as expected with a strong barrier. A sweep of the highs. Can sellers maintain the breakdown? In the first, the test of 1.35 sent buyers wandering on grounds of an orderly Brexit, depriving sellers valuable resistance. However, it was dangerous for buyers to carry on because the eye of Brexit is on it. After a Johnson majority came the selloff and now the attempt by sellers to reinstate the strategic breakdown which was previously broken is powerfully gaining momentum from the monetary side. Should we get the breakdown, the move will be fast as the insurance cut from BOE will not last beyond May. Bailey starts in May, it will take some time for the Johnson/Javid fiscal taps to work its way into the MPC forecasts meaning another late 2020 cut is then on the cards (not in play with this chart as will unlock 1.15). To put simply, a dovish BOE and hard Brexit will keep rates in the lower bound and QE infinity will return in 2021. For the immediate term, market clearly caught on the wrong side; 1.290x is next followed by 1.277x. Very difficult to get constructive on UK markets with BOE turning dovish. On the EURGBP side: Good luck all those on the sell side in Cable and other Sterling crosses, a lot of meat left on the bone. As usual thanks so much for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Short
by ridethepig
13
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.01.10By now there should be no surprises with BOE coming out on the wires at the 0.853x which was BOE stress level on the cross via Hard & Extreme Brexit scenarios (both still on the table). On the Euro side, selling has started to run out of steam and here the choice is between a breakout or more inside range trading. The first allows bulls to take charge once more; though the second allows room for more loading in the medium-term Pound shorts. We are getting closer to protecting the highs in Pound by inserting heavy support in EURGBP and protecting the lows; here the natural targets come in at 0.872x with extensions 0.90xx and 0.95xx for those trading the macro swing. The following well-know chart was played out before in EURGBP and this is no less imaginative: We shall close this chapter with a really unnatural looking move, this theatrical gesture from Carney yesterday - I mean has worked; Pound bulls want to refute it forthwith, but so far it is turning out to be very difficult. Eyes on the Pound flush for Brexit impact. Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and support coming, drop a line with any ideas or charts...
Long
by ridethepig
ORBEX:CHF Firm Despite Haven Flows,Pound "Stimulated" by CarneyBOE's Gov Carney hinted to stimulus yesterday, indicating that the pound could come under severe pressure if incoming data show no improvement. Coincidently, the same day there were suggestions that the EU-UK talks could be dragged past the tight deadline BoJo has set. The passenger plane crash in Tehran didn’t reflect into the markets as uncertainty about the crash remains high without access to the plane's "black box". As a result, #safehaven outflows continued to weaken the #yen. However, #franc seems undeterred by the sentiment, making a strong case for more firmness. Timestamps USDCHF 4H 01:25 GBPUSD 2H 03:35 Trade safe Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 2020.01.09A good time to update the Cable chart as we approach the first macro driven event risk of the year with NFP. As mentioned a few times the range we are trading is crystal clear with 1.33xx highs and 1.31xx lows. While the market is holding the key support at the lows, I maintain a view that a correction back towards the highs is both corrective and necessary to allow positioning for Brexit impact leg while the risk to the thesis comes from a break below the lows in the range and reassessment is only required should we break below. I therefore look to sell the strength back towards 1.33 - 1.35 which will be enough to cap the highs for 2020. Should we see any strength extend in the short-term it will be a superb selling opportunity for those interested in adding weight to the in-house macro view. For those wanting to track the large swing we have been trading since the UK elections I would recommend the following diagrams: GBPUSD GBPAUD EURGBP UK markets pricing a Conservative majority as a "positive resolution" to Brexit is complacent and allows us an opportunity to capture those out of position and mis-pricing UK market access beyond 2020. To date we have traded a tremendous amount of conjecture around the Brexit chapter, yet many are quickly to forget we are yet to trade the "fact" leg. ...Best of luck to all those looking to trade NFP, a clean and simple spike back to the top of the short-term range in play for Cable. As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes and comments !!!
Long
by ridethepig
3
ORBEX: Trump LOST Round 1 of Impeachment Battle!Trump was impeached yesterday and lost! But the trial timing remains in doubt, keeping parties on their toes! Meanwhile, BoJ kept interest rates unchanged overnight and now we have to wait and see if BoE adds to the downside risks on #no-deal fears, or encourage bulls with a rather hawkish stance? I talk about all that in today’s market insights while analysing watch-listed FX Minors that move (hint: Loonie)! Timestamps GBPAUD 4H 02:30 CADJPY 4H 03:45 USDMXN 4H 05:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ridethepig | GBP Fast Flows A very simple trigger for those wanting to cover some shorts from the initial elections entry; the key 1.315x support is holding and pressure has been completely absorbed. We are trading the bottom of the clearly defined range from the elections; 1.315x <=> 1.355x and markets rather than going overboard on risk will want to keep their cards closer to their chest until 2020. If we do lose 1.315x this will trigger a panic leg and immediately put us into impulsive territory in the macro chart below. Macro prints today from the UK were better than expectations and will be enough to keep BOE on hold and unlocks another test of 1.35xx. I will continue to use this pivot to position for the long-term flows: A perfect double top in the making? Smells like it... Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and questions. This is for advanced traders only as we are using the short-term range to decrease risk and scale into our position for a long-term trend . As usual with any questions feel free to open below.
Long
by ridethepig
2
Shedding A Few Pounds For Christmas...GBPUSD rejected at 1.35xx which acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. Here actively selling into all rallies in GBP crosses, although there is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term. With Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. The Conservative majority was clear and simple to trade, particularly in GBPAUD : GBPUSD In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited. This next chart indicates the sense of division in Britain, a fragmented society which also highlights the stupidity to have such a referendum on a complex topic. The UK is not like Swiss for example having referendum after referendum, rather it is a representative democracy. Yet sadly we are seeing a corruption of democracy via media manipulation swerving public opinion. For example, those who remember Cameron's premiership will remember the government was at the time asking for public to remain while they were pursuing policies of austerity (decreasing consumer confidence) and served to have more damage than good. The silent revolution or protest vote (all cleverly calculated) unlocked Pandoras box with a People vs Establishment narrative: Thanks all for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions, charts and etc. As usual jump into the comments with your ideas and views to open the discussion for all!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | GBP Swing PositioningFor those tracking "GBP Fast Flows" and "UK Election" coverage this will apply as we do a deep dive into the technicals of the swing positioning. This will serve as a live example and reference chart in the future for some of our scaling techniques and conversations. In any case let's first start by reviewing the highs we are positioning around on both the fundamental and technical side. As widely anticipated £/$ 1.35xx was the key resistance level to track from the previous chart and has presented us with a +/- 350 tick selloff (so far): The election strategy has been clear, a Conservative majority was a short-term bid on Sterling before a dramatic selloff via Brexit damage to the real economy. Perhaps the flows are even easier to spot in GBPAUD: For technical flows in this conversation, we are putting 1.315x under the test. It is key support !!! and the only level to track for the rest of the week. If demand continues to absorb the selloff it will send clear messages there is still more work to be done in the ladder at 1.335x and the 1.35xx handle. Should we lose 1.315x support it will immediately unlock the macro selloff towards 1.15xx. After it held for the London session and NY open, covering longs here makes sense with a plan to lift off retests into 1.335 and 1.350x. Will need reassessment with a daily close below 1.315x. Jump into the comments with any questions, charts and etc. Thanks as always for keeping the support coming with likes!
Long
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2019.12.16...That was it for the day on the FX board. Highlights going to EURUSD chopping through the 1.11xx handle and continuing its slow grind higher. We will need assistance from European macro numbers to make the move impulsive in nature (no surprises today’s PMIs suggest some early signs of stabilising). Services continue to do the heavy lifting while manufacturing lags badly thanks to protectionism. I will continue to add on dips and ride the pig with reassessment only necessary below 1.110x. GBPUSD … 1.35xx acting as major resistance after the country went back on the leadership merrygoround. There is a caveat to Pound shorts in the immediate term, with Johnson and a ruthless Downing Street in full control of the press and hitting the “right” headlines the positive narrative around Brexit will continue and therefore dips will be perceived as attractive too many. In any case well done all of those in shorts from the 1.35xx election highs … you will remember “ perception is more important than reality with FX ” … Remain nimble to take some chips off the table. A squeeze below 1.315x will make me excited. Good luck all those trading EURGBP, GBPUSD and EURUSD. A superb lineup as we enter into the final stages of the year, thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and questions!
Long
by ridethepig
Worm In The Apple - Live UK Election Debate Coverage!A good time to update for those tracking the GBPJPY position I posted yesterday will remember the timely entry, those unfamiliar with the chart can see here: Risk-off is entering back into the picture and JPY is finding a strong bid, with Pound in election mode momentum is not particularly impressive to the upside. A Conservative majority seems a done deal now, Brexit is coming and no one wants to get long Pound at these levels with a disaster on the horizon. For the flows you can see how those who go against the grain here will get caught with pants down. The market can move with force with direction shifted to sell. Under normal circumstances this would be a good level to buy, however given the action at the highs it is a terrible position. Expecting bears to chase it out to the downside over the coming sessions. Our objective here is to trap those buying expecting continuation, the pendulum will swing back to the negative side after the Debate is cleared tonight. Bears will have to cover quickly as it will move like a hot knife and butter, those caught up at the highs buying are already struggling. Ideally we want the sellers to hold the buyers stops and trigger further momentum, this is the market telling us what direction is the right direction. An interesting graphic I shared here last week: I recommended a short in the Tradingview Portfolio yesterday with the People vs Establishment narrative brewing, sentiment is quite negative and continuing to create flows into risk-off assets. Today you are starting to see JPY and Gold outperform, you will see the same thing in sentiment continue to gain momentum over the coming sessions. Continuing to add shorts at 140.50...In an ideal world I would like to see offers come in here and on the break we need to see the stops not hold at 140.25. Market is going to keep searching for stops to the downside and here looking to target the 139.xx handle for my initial targets. The aim of this post is to highlight a textbook case of "biting the apple that has a worm". Good luck all those on the sell side for tonight's debate. I will be covering the flows live in the comments section, as usual jump in at any time with any questions!
Short
by ridethepig
EU: Long Setup (11.12)The Euro has dropped steadily from the previous higher-low in the current long-term downtrend (1.11795). The weekly support of 1.1 is within 10 pips. Tomorrow and this week we'll be looking for longs at the key level of 1.1 Staying dynamic and not being stuck on one bias is key to seeing through the noise and trading the Euro in peace. If support is found, I expect 1.175 to be hit as an upside target very quickly. This trade entry is provided in our telegram channels.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3442968
US and China buck up markets, Bank of England disagreesThursday was not full in events however we could observe some movements that were mainly focused on safe-haven assets, in which a mass exodus of traders was observed. You do not have to guess what is markets concern about, just look throughout the dynamics of gold or the Japanese yen, you can see is there any progress or not in negotiation between the USA and Sino. Since gold, like the Japanese yen, was sold yesterday, it is clear that something positive happened between the United States and China. Indeed, China and the United States have agreed to tariffs phase-out before the deal to be made. This is a very strong confirmation signal for markets that were expecting the successful completion of the first phase of negotiations by the end of the month. Accordingly, investors relaxed and began to leave the safe-haven assets, which provoked sales in government bond markets and safe-haven assets. In connection with such news, we will wait a while with the purchase of safe-haven assets, since in the short term it is difficult to say how long it will take to work out this fundamental factor. Although in the medium term we remain bulls (gold), and we consider the current decline as an opportunity for cheaper purchases. Progress in trade negotiations contributed to the oil prices growth so that diversification once again proved to be the best ( losses in gold were offset by oil earnings). Well, our recommendation to buy oil continues to be relevant. The Bank of England decided to keep the base rate at the same level. However, the voting results surprised: 7 members of the Monetary Policy Committee spoke in favour of the invariance of the rate, but two of them voted in favour of a cut. Which, of course, was a negative signal for the pound. However, support for 1.2810 has survived. Accordingly, our recommendation to buy GBPUSD on intraday day basis remains valid. But do not forget about the stops, and it does not make any sense to put them largely- the bears may well seize the initiative and take the pair to the bottom 1.27. The euro was not lucky yesterday, industrial production in Germany fell by 0.6% (a 0.4% decline was expected). Given the rather strong downward pressure today, we are more likely to sell the euro than to buy it. But today, instead of pairs with the euro, we will work in pairs with the Canadian dollar. Labour market statistics are likely to lead to a volatility jump. Well, recall that for commodity currencies (which include the Canadian dollar is included), progress in trade negotiations is a positive signal. Yesterday it was ignored by the markets, but it is likely to be worked out today.
Short
by Trade24Fx
GBPUSD double topSo today we had a split vote on Bank of England decision. While rates stayed the same, 2 members of the board voted for a cut. Their opinion is due to Brexit uncertainty. At the moment we see a double top on daily chart with great divergence. Elliott waves suggest that wave (iv) could correct to target of the double top. If price does not drop below the high of wave (i), then the current count holds. Impulsive break through current support is the signal, best maybe to wait for retest for additional confirmation and better risk-reward. Good Luck!
by Antonio_trader
ORBEX: GBPCHF & EURJPY Follow Identical Pattern (hint: bullish)!In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #fxminors #EURJPY and #GBPCHF as they both seem to be moving within an identical pattern. Despite the added uncertainty amid the latest delay drama of phase-1 of a potential trade deal between US and China, safe-havens #yen and #franc seemed unaffected by at least this type of flows. That suggests that participants are now shifting to more exciting events, expected to trade trade war flows when a more significant and certain development comes on the surface. Until then, #euro and #pound inflows could push the aforementioned pairs higher, with the latter hanging on today's #BoE meeting. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex