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GBPJPY Shorts on Hourly ChartHere we are zooming in for those wanting to track the initial move in this large leg on a small time-frame. Those who follow the account here will know we recently uploaded a Daily chart on GBPJPY with shorts all the way to the bottom of the range. Here we are showcasing an initial impulse move down at resistance. For a more detailed breakdown on the macro and fundamentals please see our related ideas where Brexit has been explained in depth. Best of luck and feel free to open up the discussion here
Short
by ridethepig
4
The European Union and Great Britain are looking over the cliffsIn Europe the situation is dire. The European Central Bank is giving us more and more dovish signals. Benoit Coeure and Francois Villeroy de Galhau governing members of the ECB have both stated that the slowdown in the European Union is significant and that the interest rate may need to be altered. This week members of the ECB, BoE, FOMC, BoC and RBA are giving speeches. We look forward to their guidance and a spike in volatility for their respective currencies. Prime Minister Theresa May is having a hard time convincing politicians at home. She has turned to the EU for support on her wishes in the Brexit agreement because her Ministers at home are non-compliant. The pound gapped up on Monday and then closed the gap by 10 am +3 GMT. It is once again trading above the 200-EMA on the 1hr timeframe. We remain bearish on the Pound but do not recommend entering a swing trade while price remains above the 200-EMA on the 1hr timeframe. A scalp trade is possible from above the EMA to the Fibonacci level of 38.2% at the price of 1.28685.
Short
by YaroslavBirchenko
The Pound set to continue its declineThe dollar continues its advance. Investors see a global slowdown but figure the US economy to be the biggest and strongest so they put their bets on it coming out ahead. Trump has signed a shutdown avoidance agreement but is now pushing for a national emergency in order to siphon funds from the budget agreed on by congress. Very sticky situation that could lead to a fall in the dollar if the funds are misappropriated. The pound is continuing its decline. We see more turmoil than solutions being propagated in the UK. Prime Minister Theresa May faced hardships yet again from her Parliament when they refused to endorse her return to the EU negotiating table. Who will be in charge of the negotiations remains to be seen but we remain bearish on the whole situation because the deadline is quickly approaching. We look towards the employment data set for the UK on Tuesday to figure out if inflation will stay within the bounds of the mandate the Bank of England. This data is important, it shows us if the BoE might change its monetary policy because of sharp declines in employment or earnings. After all this data is compiled, we will see an inflation report on Thursday. Technical analysis shows us that the pound will likely continue its descent. Two doji candles indicate that despite a good data set from the UK the pound is not ready to climb back to previous highs. The price crossed over the 21 EMA and remains under the 200 EMA. A support level at 1.26734 is a good level to put target take-profits.
Short
by YaroslavBirchenko
BoE Gov Carney speech and the poundIn his speech today BoE Governor Mark Carney said that global growth this year is expected to be at around 3.25%. Since the Brexit referendum, the pound has fallen 25%, causing incomes to fall, and slowdowns all over the economy. Historical stability, solid financial institutions and a well-built social/political system allow the country to maintain afloat. Carney argued for a more inclusive stance from world governments. If services are allowed the same freedom across borders, as goods, then we could have a fundamental shift towards a new economical horizon. If a hard Brexit is to be, we will default to the rules of the World Trade Organization. BoE view of risks on the horizon 1. Complacency. If expansion is prolonged across the world, the following crisis will be much bigger. 2. Possibility of a material slowdown in China. Chinas stability over the last 30 years is magnificent. Post 2008 they have been using two tools - over crediting and shadow banking. A 3% slowdown in China would equal 1% world slowdown and 0.5% slowdown in the UK. 3. Brexit could be the tipping point of the world economy going into a recession. Openness of markets and business prospect are leading drivers of growth. The pound is very much in a down trend. We do not recommend opening long positions in this currency. At the current level the pound is up against the 38.2% Fibonacci level as a resistance level. Yesterday the pound fell right through this level and did not return for a retest. Mark Carney the Governor of the Bank of England did not provide much detail on why yesterday’s numbers were so off. He did use the word “recession” three times. The price could test around 1.3000 again this week, from which it would be wise to open a short position. A stop loss should be placed at 1.30250 which is at the level of the 200-MA. If the trade goes in our favor, the target would be just above 1.26750, the closest support level.
Short
by YaroslavBirchenko
1
Will GBPUSD Actually Tumble To 1.16 Level? Lets Laugh For Now !I bet you really laughed hard on the title and believe me i was laughing too as wrote the analysis. LOL, LMAO or whatever but the power of harmonic patterns can never be underestimated. Harmonic patterns can gauge the direction of the market on a very respectable note. Here we have a POTENTIAL CRAB pattern that might become a reality in the coming months, which inturn would mean the GBPUSD would tumble all the way to 1.16 level! Now thats pretty undervalued currency if that happens! and is bound to reverse if the pattern completes. Potential harmonic patterns are sometimes great as an added confluence factor to where a market might be headed. Currently the GBPUSD pair has been more prone to fundamental factors (BREXIT issues solely) rather than technically driven! Trading any GBP pairs using technical analysis is like carrying a bomb in your pocket which can explode at any moment. Until this BREXIT issues never resolve the GBP will have hard time to be driven technically. The UK might be on the verge of exiting the EU without a deal and everything is heating up and if this happens, expect the GBP to fall as far as it can go. Everything is in balance with BREXIT negotiations and if everything goes wrong the GBP will tumble. Although already undervalued at the moment the GBP will tumble to new levels of all time LOW should BREXIT negotiations go SOUTH. For now lets just laugh but if the GBP hits 1.16 we should get serious and ready to BUY the pair which will yield a very excellent risk to reward ratio.
Long
by FX618Analysis
Perfect Example On How To Utilize Strong FX pair With Weak One !There are many trading strategies out there in the world but it all does not suit us perfectly!. Therefore we end up looking for a new or revised strategy and customize it to our needs. Here i am going to explain one of the best strategy to approach the market when one FX currency has been showing bullishness both fundamentally and technically as well as sentimentally. Currently as i write, we would all wonder everyday what could be the possible strongest FX Currency showing more bullishness at the moment so we can take advantage? Well to answer this question can be hard as the trader needs to keep up and read the fundamental aspects of each FX currencies and decide what FX currency is doing the best. A few weeks ago it was the USD and now in my opinion its the GBP! If you do your reading and technical analysis well you will observe that GBP has some pretty bright future and to add to that the pair (GBPUSD) has been rising for 4 weeks in a row!. Furthermore fundamentally its a currency that is brexit driven and recent news suggests that a deal may be about wrap up by somewhere in October 2018. The GBP has been hit hard by brexit for a long time now, but the currency is largely undervalued by looking at the monthly charts of GBPUSD. Many GBP pairs are showing a lot of signs of bulishness at the moment and are poised for likely gains in the near term. So once you have established the strongest and the currency with a brighter future at the moment we can proceed to the next step. Now ask yourself logically, since i have found the strongest currency pair at the moment what currency should i pair the GBP with? Its a very important question! and as traders we would always like our trade run smoothly with least disturbance as possible and therefore pairing the GBP with the weakest currency seems to be the only logical and technical option here. So coming back to step one, what is the weakest currency pair at the moment? if you read your news and do technical analysis well it might not take you too long to figure it out. For me its the NZD! Why you ask me its the NZD? Well my answer is based on my personal analysis such as looking at the NZDUSD chart its been dropping like rocket for a long time and the fundamentals are the least favorable for this pair. Not only the trade war has hit NZD hard but also their reserve bank failing to give hints on the NZD rate hike. You may look for other currency such as the CAD, but its price is closely linked to OIL market and the volatility can make the CAD go crazy even on short terms. The USD seems to be another currency to think about, recently its showing some weakness but i see it as only temporary. The EUR is strong too at the moment and supported well fundamentally. The safehavens JPY and CHF as said are safehavens and in the event of any market turmoil they become quite volatile and change directions pretty quickly! The AUD is also quite weak at the moment but fundamentals are starting to support this pair. So the last and final crucial step would be to shortlist the most weakest fx currencies and do technical analysis to look for LONG opportunites on higher timeframes! GBPAUD does not indicate any good long term technical opportunity to enter however the GBPNZD has provided some nice set up. Look at the main chart it can be observed that the price was confined in a range for weeks and has now broken out!. I am simply waiting for the price to retrace to 38.2 fib ratio of previous swing before i decide to go LONG on this pair!. The redline represents the target which also happens to be the strong resistance on the monthly charts. The price might likely head to that level which would give us a good risk to reward ratio possibly 1:3. I hope this analysis would be helpful to all as for now and in the future too. Its a really well rounded good strategy pairing the strongest and the weaker pairs together to have a best possible scenario and reward. thank you and follow me if you like my analysis. If there are any signals pertaining to this pair i will post them.
Long
by FX618Analysis
GBPUSD - Trend Resumption; Break-Below of Retracement ChannelI guess I might have posted a little late as the price made its move down while I'm still drawing the chart. Nevertheless, I'm seeing that the major retracement is almost or probably completed for GBPUSD. I've labeled 2 stop loss level, a conservative and an aggressive one, for different risk appetite, and I'm certain of the trend. The main reason for such certainty lies in the dollar last monthly candle formation, and my take is that the dollar is likely to regain domination during September. As for the pound, there's still a lot of weakness coming from the shaky Brexit negotiation and still-weak economic data that's holding back BOE from raising rate any sooner.
Short
by AlgoVenture
Short Term Floor in Cable => As widely expected BOE raised interest rates last week => Here we are expecting Pound to find short-term support from the monetary side for August => Technically we are trading at the bottom of the range with the Hard Brexit train approaching the station. We will see a pullback here into September as FED rate hoke Sept are priced into the Dollar side giving Pound some short-term relief before seeing further weakness into Q4 and beyond. => GBPUSD Long @ 1.300 | TP1 1.33 | TP2 1.345 | SL 1.290 => Good Luck
Short
by ridethepig
GBP/JPY Confined In A Wedge/Flag. Potential Breakout On Horizon?Just like its parents pair (GBPUSD), The pound is just consolidating at the moment and a potential break to the upside is on the cards!. What is preventing the breakout at the moment is that the price is confined in wedge. To add to the list of confluence factors a flag has also been formed and the violation of the upper trend line would see a GBP push to the upside. The above daily GBPJPY chart represents the price being confined in a range!. A potential break to the upside would also break the dynamic resistance of 50 EMA in the process. The above monthly chart represent the potential resistance that this particular pair may face after the breakout. Furthermore, this could be our TP level as well. The risk reward ratio on this is pretty good as well. It remains to be seen what happens in the near future and what GBP related pair could give us more feasible or excellent risk to reward ratio. Any Signals will related to this post would be posted under this thread. If you like my analysis please help me with a LIKE and FOLLOW me for more future ideas and signals.
Long
by FX618Analysis
The Eve of RiskOur Second Idea on Tradingview => Here we are smelling risk off in the coming sessions. =>From a technical perspective we are eyeballing a move back towards the 61.8% from the bottom of the channel we have been trading since April. =>Expecting investors to raise the bid on risk off assets as we have the triple CB combo this week with BOJ, FED and BOE in play. =>We are choosing Gold as the perfect asset class to trade this as we expect some mild profit taking from Dollarbulls =>Gold long @1227| TP1 1260 | TP2 1305 | STP LOSS 1208 =>In the background we also have EZ and US inflation numbers mid week, both expected inline providing further pull factors to Gold =>Good Luck all
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
GBPJPY - Long until BOE News Release - then SHORTMarkets will build up their long positions just up until the news comes out Thursday AM. Following the news release, we will see a strong surge to the upside knocking out stops, and enticing people to continue LONG. Once they have enough orders, price will fall quickly and create new lows by Friday AM. Volatility will be low until Wednesday, as most hedge funds and large banks will wait to launch their positions. I will let the LONG positions run throughout the week, take profit prior to the BOE news, and analyze my re-entry to go short once the stop loss hunt is finished. The "GHOST FEED" shows where i predict price to travel throughout the week. This is my personal opinion, and not to be used for trading advice or professional advice. Please let me know your opinions. Good Luck.
Long
by WintersCloud
3
GBPUSD STRONGLY BEARISH BELOW 1.3193 LEVELThe British pound has fallen sharply lower against the US dollar, after Bank of England member Jonathan Haskel delivered a dovish speech about future rate hikes from the BoE. The GBPUSD pair also came under pressure after repeated technical failure before the 1.3300 level and a reversal higher in the value of the US dollar index. A scheduled speech from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney this morning will likely set the intraday trading-tone for the GBPUSD pair. The GBPUSD pair will turn strongly bearish below the 1.3193 level, key support is found at the 1.3144 and 1.3101 levels. If the GBPUSD pair trades above the 1.3255 level, key technical resistance can be found at the 1.3291 and 1.3313 levels.
Short
by OctaFX_Official
GBPUSD & EURGBP post BoEBoE Vote split comes in at 6 - 3 BoE keeps rates and asset purchases unchanged at 0.50% and 435bln respectively. - Vote was 6-3 in favour of unchanged Bank Rate, unanimous for QE at 435B/APF at 10B - Haldane, McCafferty and Saunders dissented, voting instead for a June hike - Majority on MPC still reassured Q1 softness was largely temporary, but preferred to wait for further data on economy - Dissenters saw greater likelihood erratic Q1 growth would rebound, saw upside risk to wage inflation - MPC will not reduce stock of QE until Bank Rate reaches 1.5% (prev 2%) - Reduction in QE stock will be at a gradual and predictable pace; over number of years - Ongoing tightening of MonPol remains appropriate over forecast horizon - UK economy to develop in line with May QIR forecast - Global data since May QIR was mixed, financial conditions had tightened
Education
by RajDhall