BOE
GBP/USD Stuck In Asymmetric Triangle – Breakout awaited on BOEGBP/USD – Trade Idea
Investors are advised to keep a close eye on $1.3090, below this, the GBP/USD can give us a selling opportunity to target $1.3025 and $1.2965. While, above this (1.3090), the pair can stay bullish until $1.3170 and $1.3220. Good luck!
GBP/JPY Confined In A Wedge/Flag. Potential Breakout On Horizon?Just like its parents pair (GBPUSD), The pound is just consolidating at the moment and a potential break to the upside is on the cards!. What is preventing the breakout at the moment is that the price is confined in wedge. To add to the list of confluence factors a flag has also been formed and the violation of the upper trend line would see a GBP push to the upside.
The above daily GBPJPY chart represents the price being confined in a range!. A potential break to the upside would also break the dynamic resistance of 50 EMA in the process.
The above monthly chart represent the potential resistance that this particular pair may face after the breakout. Furthermore, this could be our TP level as well. The risk reward ratio on this is pretty good as well. It remains to be seen what happens in the near future and what GBP related pair could give us more feasible or excellent risk to reward ratio.
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The Eve of RiskOur Second Idea on Tradingview
=> Here we are smelling risk off in the coming sessions.
=>From a technical perspective we are eyeballing a move back towards the 61.8% from the bottom of the channel we have been trading since April.
=>Expecting investors to raise the bid on risk off assets as we have the triple CB combo this week with BOJ, FED and BOE in play.
=>We are choosing Gold as the perfect asset class to trade this as we expect some mild profit taking from Dollarbulls
=>Gold long @1227| TP1 1260 | TP2 1305 | STP LOSS 1208
=>In the background we also have EZ and US inflation numbers mid week, both expected inline providing further pull factors to Gold
=>Good Luck all
GBPJPY - Long until BOE News Release - then SHORTMarkets will build up their long positions just up until the news comes out Thursday AM. Following the news release, we will see a strong surge to the upside knocking out stops, and enticing people to continue LONG. Once they have enough orders, price will fall quickly and create new lows by Friday AM.
Volatility will be low until Wednesday, as most hedge funds and large banks will wait to launch their positions.
I will let the LONG positions run throughout the week, take profit prior to the BOE news, and analyze my re-entry to go short once the stop loss hunt is finished.
The "GHOST FEED" shows where i predict price to travel throughout the week.
This is my personal opinion, and not to be used for trading advice or professional advice. Please let me know your opinions. Good Luck.
GBP/JPY – Active SignalThe Japanese cross has dipped over the unexpected drop in the U.K. retail sales figures. However, the GBP/JPY seems to gain support near 146.150. As we can see, the pair has formed a test bar, signifying the sellers seem to exhaust and bulls may take over the lead. On the upper side, the GBP/JPY is likely to face resistance near 146.750 and 147.150.
GBPUSD STRONGLY BEARISH BELOW 1.3193 LEVELThe British pound has fallen sharply lower against the US dollar, after Bank of England member Jonathan Haskel delivered a dovish speech about future rate hikes from the BoE.
The GBPUSD pair also came under pressure after repeated technical failure before the 1.3300 level and a reversal higher in the value of the US dollar index.
A scheduled speech from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney this morning will likely set the intraday trading-tone for the GBPUSD pair.
The GBPUSD pair will turn strongly bearish below the 1.3193 level, key support is found at the 1.3144 and 1.3101 levels.
If the GBPUSD pair trades above the 1.3255 level, key technical resistance can be found at the 1.3291 and 1.3313 levels.
GBPUSD & EURGBP post BoEBoE Vote split comes in at 6 - 3
BoE keeps rates and asset purchases unchanged at 0.50% and 435bln respectively.
- Vote was 6-3 in favour of unchanged Bank Rate, unanimous for QE at 435B/APF at 10B
- Haldane, McCafferty and Saunders dissented, voting instead for a June hike
- Majority on MPC still reassured Q1 softness was largely temporary, but preferred to wait for further data on economy
- Dissenters saw greater likelihood erratic Q1 growth would rebound, saw upside risk to wage inflation
- MPC will not reduce stock of QE until Bank Rate reaches 1.5% (prev 2%)
- Reduction in QE stock will be at a gradual and predictable pace; over number of years
- Ongoing tightening of MonPol remains appropriate over forecast horizon
- UK economy to develop in line with May QIR forecast
- Global data since May QIR was mixed, financial conditions had tightened
GBPUSD - Bearish bias into BOEToday's BOE meeting will set the stage for August. The jury is still out on whether the Q1 slowdown was temporary,
or the start of a more pronounced deceleration in economic activity. The BoE can cite a slew of recent positive data releases
(services PMI, retail sales) but trade balance, inflation developments and business confidence are weaker.
Overall we don't expect the BOE to be positive today.
GBPUSD in free fall, rate hike comments in question.Yesterday after BoE's Governor Carney hinted that possibility of rate hike is much more lower than previously the GBPUSD plunged from what it was a great run to the heights of 1.4377 for more than a month, and this means also that it is on the border to exit the bullish flag zone if it goes below 1.4000 the next support. At the moment the price pivots around 1.4050, if it does not hold on 1.40 is next. It should be noted, investors would stay more on the side now, before we get more clarification for the future BoE policy and after decision announcement we will get clear direction of the movement of the price. GBPUSD potential is not lost thou and it should be supported by new buyers appearing below 1.4000. Good luck :) .
Risk warning!
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Trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and may result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. You should first be aware of the risk and know what you do before you proceed with trading. Supplied information is not advice.
The Week aheadThe Major pair currencie GPBUSD is breaking their resistance price. It will expect that the next week with the positive figures in Retail Sales (MoM) in USA and the increasing in the Average Earning Index + Bonus in the UK, the $GBPUSD begins in the 1.43 path.
Once the price has corrected, the CPI in UK 2.7% (Forecast) will push down the price until the second support price.(Yellow line (more or less 50% of Fibonacci retracement))
PD: THE XABCD PATTERN is beginning to create, be careful!
Short position in the long termThe Swiss Franc is achieve his highest approximately since the BREXIT Referendum (23/6/16) for it, this pair perhaps breaks the first support price and decrease fasterif the GDP data of UK is more lower than expect... in addition this week the BoE is going to adjust the interest rate (15% probability) due to positive economic data released the previous week.
25/3/2018 9:43 EST SHORT AND LONG POSITIONEVERYBODY´S WAITING FOR THE FIRST SUPPORT PRICE ($1.41...) THEN THE PRICE WILL INCREASE UNTIL THE LAST RESISTANCE ($1.43 MORE OR LESS)... YOU SHOULD HAVE INTO ACCOOUNT THAT IN THIS WEEK THE UK AND USD GDP DATA WILL BE RELEASED, THE BoE will decide if change or not the interest rate , and THE BREXIT ISSUES !
TAKE CARE AND GOOD TRADE
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GBP/USD Cable Short- Brexit Causes Sterling Tumble or does USD?GBP/USD has Fallen Nearly 300+ pips Since Rejecting 1.4000. THis Pair has now seen quite a divergence between the moving Averages as the new Fed Chair Powell Preaches hawkish overtones about Fed Hikes and Market Exhuberance. WIll The Cable Fall Again to Post Brexit Levels Yet Again?
Looking at the chart techincally, we can see that the Weekly Ascneding Trendline is currently being tested as the pair consolidates around the weekly mid range level of 1.3750. A confirmed break below would indicate a potential short oppurtunity however lets not rule out any retracements as the pair has had a massive fall in the past few days!
Related Tickers AMEX:FXB TVC:DXY FX_IDC:GBPUSD
BoE Preview with fundamental backdrop and key levelsWhile the consensus is very much that the MPC will keep rates unchanged at Thursday's meeting, there is a risk that some of the more hawkish members will point to the rise in earning's growth, which although still in negative territory in real terms, is now moving in the right direction. If inflation starts to flatten out as the exchange rate effects pass through, then a continued rise in wages will allow the BoE to normalise rates at a gradual pace, with all member cogniscent of the tightening bias elsewhere, most notably in the US.
That said, there a plenty of 'ifs', not least of all Brexit, and as the negotiations have yet produce any material progress, the uncertainty will be a secondary factor and this will start showing up in the data. There are already concerns over the performance of the high street and the consumer, but with the EU digging in its heals on single market access, UK services face an unsettled future. The BoE will have to assume that there is a bumpy ride ahead, so at this stage, any hawkish signals are unnecesssary.
The meeting in May is earmarked as the earliest the BoE will look to move again, and at present, the markets are pricing in a 50/50 chance of another 25bp hike. We fail to see how the odds can move materially to the upside, but equally so on the downside, upward projections in growth would underpin this and keep GBP on an even keel for now.
2018 Macro Outlook - GBPUSD Bearish BiasPrice has been correcting higher since late 2016 to the whole of 2017. Going into 2018, I'm bearish bias for this pair with a potential major drop towards 1.1890 area.
I will be following up and tracking this thread regularly throughout the year. Make sure you follow this idea to get notified whenever there is an update on this idea.
Have a great trading year ahead!