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GBPUSD in free fall, rate hike comments in question.Yesterday after BoE's Governor Carney hinted that possibility of rate hike is much more lower than previously the GBPUSD plunged from what it was a great run to the heights of 1.4377 for more than a month, and this means also that it is on the border to exit the bullish flag zone if it goes below 1.4000 the next support. At the moment the price pivots around 1.4050, if it does not hold on 1.40 is next. It should be noted, investors would stay more on the side now, before we get more clarification for the future BoE policy and after decision announcement we will get clear direction of the movement of the price. GBPUSD potential is not lost thou and it should be supported by new buyers appearing below 1.4000. Good luck :) . Risk warning! --------------------------------------------------- Trading carries a high level of risk to your capital and may result in losses that exceed your initial deposit. You should first be aware of the risk and know what you do before you proceed with trading. Supplied information is not advice.
by TheTrade_Academ
The Week aheadThe Major pair currencie GPBUSD is breaking their resistance price. It will expect that the next week with the positive figures in Retail Sales (MoM) in USA and the increasing in the Average Earning Index + Bonus in the UK, the $GBPUSD begins in the 1.43 path. Once the price has corrected, the CPI in UK 2.7% (Forecast) will push down the price until the second support price.(Yellow line (more or less 50% of Fibonacci retracement)) PD: THE XABCD PATTERN is beginning to create, be careful!
Short
by AndresPolo7
25/3/2018 9:43 EST SHORT AND LONG POSITIONEVERYBODY´S WAITING FOR THE FIRST SUPPORT PRICE ($1.41...) THEN THE PRICE WILL INCREASE UNTIL THE LAST RESISTANCE ($1.43 MORE OR LESS)... YOU SHOULD HAVE INTO ACCOOUNT THAT IN THIS WEEK THE UK AND USD GDP DATA WILL BE RELEASED, THE BoE will decide if change or not the interest rate , and THE BREXIT ISSUES ! TAKE CARE AND GOOD TRADE www.twitter.com There is more information about that... including a list where there is a lot information about the markets, traders among others.
Long
by AndresPolo7
GBP/USD Cable Short- Brexit Causes Sterling Tumble or does USD?GBP/USD has Fallen Nearly 300+ pips Since Rejecting 1.4000. THis Pair has now seen quite a divergence between the moving Averages as the new Fed Chair Powell Preaches hawkish overtones about Fed Hikes and Market Exhuberance. WIll The Cable Fall Again to Post Brexit Levels Yet Again? Looking at the chart techincally, we can see that the Weekly Ascneding Trendline is currently being tested as the pair consolidates around the weekly mid range level of 1.3750. A confirmed break below would indicate a potential short oppurtunity however lets not rule out any retracements as the pair has had a massive fall in the past few days! Related Tickers AMEX:FXB TVC:DXY FX_IDC:GBPUSD
Short
by ScholarGC
BoE Preview with fundamental backdrop and key levelsWhile the consensus is very much that the MPC will keep rates unchanged at Thursday's meeting, there is a risk that some of the more hawkish members will point to the rise in earning's growth, which although still in negative territory in real terms, is now moving in the right direction. If inflation starts to flatten out as the exchange rate effects pass through, then a continued rise in wages will allow the BoE to normalise rates at a gradual pace, with all member cogniscent of the tightening bias elsewhere, most notably in the US. That said, there a plenty of 'ifs', not least of all Brexit, and as the negotiations have yet produce any material progress, the uncertainty will be a secondary factor and this will start showing up in the data. There are already concerns over the performance of the high street and the consumer, but with the EU digging in its heals on single market access, UK services face an unsettled future. The BoE will have to assume that there is a bumpy ride ahead, so at this stage, any hawkish signals are unnecesssary. The meeting in May is earmarked as the earliest the BoE will look to move again, and at present, the markets are pricing in a 50/50 chance of another 25bp hike. We fail to see how the odds can move materially to the upside, but equally so on the downside, upward projections in growth would underpin this and keep GBP on an even keel for now.
by RajDhall
1
Top Events & Setups To Trade Today - EUR/USD & GBP/USD in Focus!Good Morning, traders. It's such a phenomenal beginning of the week. Our forex trading signals closed more than 100 pips. The long-term position in Gold is doing great, and the short-term position helped to pocket nearly 55 pips. Likewise, another signal shared in A Quick Trade Setup on EURJPY closed 60 pips. Now I'm serving up EUR/USD and GBP/USD to secure high probability trades. Read More for Trade Ideas: www.fxleaders.com
Long
by Arslan_AliButt
An U-turn in market sentiments Oil market The oil market continues to master successively new peaks, rising on Monday to the highest level since July 2015 . Oversupply is steadily declining while Saudi Arabia's readiness for changes looks even more reliable against the backdrop of anti-corruption detentions in the higher echelons of power in the kingdom. Prince Mohammed Bin Salman made a purge in the ranks of government arresting royal officials, ministers and investors. The enemies of the prince were even the billionaire Alwaleed bin Talal and the head of the National Guard Prince Miteb bin Abdullah. The struggle inside the board worsened after the announcement of the plans of the kingdom to hold the IPO of the largest oil company Saudi Aramco next year, just in the phase of growing oil market, which will offer investors the stake for higher price. Shale output in the US shows signs of further decline, as the report of Baker Hughes on Friday showed that the number of drilling rigs decreased by 8 to 729. This was the sharpest decline since May 2016. The fall in drilling activity occurs together with the action of the OPEC + oil pact, which convinces the mutual interest of shale companies and the cartel to restore the balance of supply and demand. The pact expires in March 2018, but the rhetoric of Saudi Arabia and Russian officials has been repeatedly favored to extend the agreement by the end of next year. US dollar The dollar exchange rate has slightly changed on Monday, as investors "squeezed" long positions last week against the backdrop of an unimpressive NFP report. The likelihood of a "soft" version of the tax reform is also growing, where the introduction of tax incentives will be carried out in stages, rather than at a time. The rise during the Asian session was replaced by relative indifference with the beginning of the London trading. The decline from the dollar is likely to limited because of uncertainty with the tax plan, but the bond market seems to be giving up. The yield on 10-year US bonds shows a negative trend on Monday, after a significant decline last week. The net short position on the dollar fell to a minimum of four months from $18 billion at the end of September to $3 billion in the last week. The dynamics of EM currencies, however, suggests strengthening of the dollar. The Russian ruble continued its decline on Monday amid the carry trade rout, a period of payment of debts denominated in US dollars and a growing demand for foreign currency on the part of nation. The pair USDRUB soared to the level of 59.00, for the first time since the end of August. The signal of weakening of currencies attractive for carry trade testifies about fears of shrinking differential of interest rates or strengthening of the dollar. British pound Investors are actively buying back the pound from the key support level at 1.30, to which it arrived on Thursday after the meeting of the Bank of England. The pound is projected to trade in red further, falling below 1.30 due to the instability of the Conservative Party and the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations. The expected increase in the rate by the Bank of England did nothing for the pound, as the head of the bank Mark Carney stressed that the main risk for economy remains the deal with European Union on maintaining access to the single trading market. If the country fails to reach an agreement, the pace of economy pickup may significantly slow down, as import duties can plunge a large number of enterprises into losses. The projected pace of rate normalization fell to two increases in the next three years, which caused a sharp change in expectations for the pound in the direction of the negative. Arthur Idiatulin
TVC:UKOILLong
by Tickmill
Looking to Long EURGBP on Probable Double BottomOverall uptrend on D1 TF. Looking to long if retest at 0.8744. ISL: 0.8724 (20pips), FTP: .9091 (Fibo R 61.8) Thursday BoE rate decision will see a volatilty in pound. GBPUSD will see a obvious down or up trend. If there is a rate hike, EURGBP will break below 0.8744 and this analysis will be invalid. If is a surprise unchanged rate decision, euro will rebound and strengthen against pound The reward to risk for this analysis is 17: 1
Long
by hzs
US rally leaves little for NFP to surprise tradersUS Dollar The dollar took aggressive stance on Wednesday as investors await bullish comments from the Fed and White House while troubled New Zealand Dollar was rescued by a strong labor market report. The basket of major currencies fell against the greenback, however last week's high at 95.00 seems to have to be conquered again. The Fed's November meeting is of little interest to investors as the position of regulator for the December meeting is pretty clear, and there is no point in talking about distant prospects, given that Yellen's term is coming to an end in February. A much more important event will be the announcement of a new head of the Fed on Thursday, where the views converge on Yellen’s colleague Jerome Powell. The market estimates his chances at 85%. Powell is a famous follower of gradualism, so his appointment will probably disappoint the markets and will deprive the dollar of some support. For the US stock markets, amid the economic recovery and the tax reform, the prospect of a sluggish Fed is likely to revive interest for staging new records. Later on Wednesday there will be news on tax reform, in particular the plans of Treasury for auctions to finance the deficit. Despite the large number of seemingly bullish events for the dollar, I would recommend refraining from buying it until the uncertainty is eliminated. All data indicate a strong report on employment in the US on Friday, but all this should be seen in the context of accelerating growth after natural disasters. The long-term dynamics of the dollar will be determined by the tax reform and the appointment of the head of the Federal Reserve. In favor of strong NFP report there is an increase in consumer confidence and spending, which also prepares favorable ground for the fourth quarter GDP performance. The early start of the heating season and the seasonal increase in energy prices will create additional inflationary pressures on the economy, which, together with rising oil prices, will have a multiplier effect. New Zealand Dollar Economic recovery also reached New Zealand, where unemployment fell to 4.6%, which triggered a wave of long positions for NZD and NZDUSD growth of 0.9%. Suddenly, a steep exchange rate rise after robust labor data was a "relief" rally after the new government announced the isolationist measures - preventing foreign investment and migration. Nevertheless, the policy will take its toll and we can expect further weakening of the New Zealand dollar. British Pound The British pound jumped to the high of October on Tuesday, after the European official in charge of Brexit talks, said he was ready to accelerate negotiations on the country's exit from the bloc, thus significantly boosting the spirit of investors who still hope for a pound gain. Theresa May’s spokeswoman also reported on the hiring of thousands of customs officers at the new borders with the European Union - which also signaled the imminent announcement of the final exit conditions. On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold a meeting, which is likely to announce an increase in the interest rate by 0.25% - for the first time in 10 years. The head of the bank, Mark Carney, took advantage of this monetary tool when he announced the need to rate hike at the previous meeting (which caused the pound to rise to 1.36), so in search of arguments for a strong currency again, he needs to show the readiness of the bank to any consequences of Brexit. With the global economic recovery, rising oil prices, there is a chance that he will have the courage to be more aggressive than expected. Arthur Idiatulin
FX:UKOILShort
by Tickmill
GBPJPY 350 Pips Short IdeaSince 9th October, price has been developing correctively towards the upside after the impulsive drop from the 152.87 high. With price completing a minimum 3-wave move, we are now expecting more downside potential on GBPJPY. We saw a minor impulse move on the lower timeframe, and should price continue to develop in a corrective manner today and early tomorrow, it will give us more conviction in taking a short trade targeting 145.45 area. We also have the Bank of England (BOE) rate statement and monetary policy this coming Thursday. This risk event might provide the catalyst needed to develop the next impulse move.
Short
by KarYong
1
US CPI upside surprise may be undervaluedChinese data Weak August for the Chinese economy jolted stock markets pointing to addiction of economic growth to credit stimulus. High real estate prices kept high rates of investment in the sector, while industry and retail sales and fixed investment undershoot. Meeting of the Bank of England As noted in the previous analytical note, the growing gap between the growth of wages and inflation requires the Central Bank to shift focus from long-term political consequences to current economic problems. The rate hike is unlikely today, but attention should be paid to the results of the voting, which will show how the opinions of the officials were divided. Investors recorded profit on long positions and on the eve of the decision of the Central Bank, the GBPUSD pair found a balance near the level of 1.32. SNB rate decision Frank grew in the course of trading on Thursday despite disquiet of the Swiss Central Bank with overvalued franc rate and instability in the foreign exchange market. Rates on deposits and interbank LIBOR were left unchanged coinciding with the forecasts. The regulator does not lag behind his colleagues from the US and Europe and also does not skimp on verbal interventions to devalue the currency. However, the further dynamics of the currency will depend on the position of the Fed and the development of the situation on the Korean peninsula. Consumer inflation in the US The growth of the consumer basket in the US is expected at 1.6% in August after 1.7% in July. The rate of growth may be the worst since the beginning of 2015. However, one should not underestimate the likelihood of a positive surprise, given the devaluation of the dollar, the confident comments of Fed representative William Dudley and as a plan reason bad news on the US currency, which can also skew estimates. Arthur Idiatulin
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Tickmill
Dollar, oil and desperate BoESet to take risk The reassessment of possible damage from Hurricane Irma in a positive direction and the project signed by Trump on providing aid to the victims extended the period of optimism in the US stock exchanges. The S & P 500 index seems to have fallen into dependence on any positive news, updating records. The dollar remains in limbo, sellers made a halt after a long descent, as the situation with the Fed remains very uncertain. Activity will likely resume after Friday's CPI data. News from the Korean peninsula can also return sellers control over the dollar, taking into account the sanctions imposed by the UN Security Council on Monday. Prices for oil and natural disasters The oil market is optimistic about the restoration of the refinery in the US, fueled by rumors about a possible extension of the OPEC + pact until March 2018. Russia second largest oil supply nodded after Minister's Novak hints, now the turn for OPEC. In the short term, oil surplus in the US market may increase due to a fall in demand in the region affected by the hurricane, which will be reflected in the API and EIA reports as an increase in inventories. Can not escape inflation After a relative lull on the inflation front, the August price increase in the UK by 2.9% became the maximum in five years. The Bank of England was again under pressure, because: Preservation of incentive measures in the form of low rates can further accelerate the growth of inflation. The widening gap between wage growth and rising prices will force households to reduce consumption, but what’s worse - will worsen inflation expectations, which will lead inflation to an uncontrolled trajectory. Accordingly, the only solution for the Bank of England is to raise the rate despite all the concerns. The pound sterling accordingly reacted by a growth of 0.7% laying the prospects for tightening the policy. Arthur Idiatulin
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Tickmill
Dollar, get ahold of yourself!So greenback short players finally reached for the level of 92.50, staging breakthrough of 1.19 on EURUSD. In our view these moves are a signs of dollar bottoming out as investors adjust their portfolio with fine-entered greenback longs as the updates on US economy is slowly but surely beginning to improve. The US consumer pleased us with increased expenditures, the consumer sentiments index from the University of Michigan remained steady at healthy levels, indicating American people are confidently looking to the future. More importantly, a comment was made by Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, who optimistically looked at the recent slowdown in inflation, noting the temporary nature of the factors in effect. She said, the economy may need more employment to impetus prices, with unemployment somewhere at 4.75%, downgrading from past estimate of 5%. Such a view from the Fed official brings back NFP to the game. If the report demonstrates strengthening of the labor market (ie, job growth roughly in line with the forecast, reduced unemployment), one can expect that the chances of a December rate increase will grow. But the report should be unambiguously positive, so that the Fed has a reason to spin off the story about the transitory weakness of inflation. Taking into account that unemployment in June moved from pre-crisis lows, rising by 0.1% to 4.4%, unemployment benefits were not surprising, and ADP report yesterday came out worse than expected, it is difficult to expect from NFP a pleasant surprise. And if the report disappoints, then the calm that the dollar enjoyed at the beginning of this week is likely to change to the next wave of selloff with the next target around 90.00. The dynamics of gold also speaks in favor of the bullish correction of the dollar. Having ceased to torture the defenders of the two-month high at around $ 1270, the market has retreated and is waiting for statistics on the labor market in the US, hoping that the report will allow the Fed to adjust its views, and hence the future yield of the "yellow asset". Now for today's meeting of the Bank of England. Turbulence in the UK financial markets has diminished significantly - pound volatility has fallen, credit spreads as a measure of risk have also declined, the stock market is growing thanks to the exporters. Progress on Brexit goes in parallel with the dynamics of the market, not affecting it in any way. Markit's report on production and the service sector came out today, activity in both sectors in June expanded faster than expected. For the Bank of England, the main problem remained growing inflation, but it seems to disappear by itself with the stabilization of the pound. In the last month, it has slowed and now officials need not rush to raise rates as the Brexit has not really started yet, the country will have a lot of changes it has to withstand, and the transition should be smoothed with the soft credit policies. It is obvious that with the current stimulation, the British economy will strengthen its positions, which is logical to cause the strengthening of the pound, the stabilization of inflation. But do not underestimate the uncertainty associated with Brexit. It will still remind you of itself and as a risk factor it will be a stone on the neck of the sterling trying to not sink. Today, one should not expect a significant pound movement, since for the most part the CB meeting has already been priced in, but the NFP's tomorrow report will definitely give a signal to action. And a comment on the Australian dollar. As noted in the note on Tuesday, investors probably will not play against the RBA, which complained to the revaluation of the pound in its press release after the interest rate meeting. Just in time, the weak trade balance has been released, which allowed the Australian currency to continue correction today.
Long
by Tickmill
Why Pound is limited to the upsideConsumer spending in the US, a key indicator of inflationary pressures increased in June faster than expected, but could not provide significant boost to the dollar, which renewed slump on Wednesday. Manufacturing sector health also didn't give rise to disappointment, but seems there is nothing to inspire Dollar bulls at the moment . Dollar index moves near the level of 93.00 indicates that further decline may require fresh catalysts, however the main bearish events have already been put into the market. On Wednesday and Friday, the investor will try to "arm" with good ADP and NFP data to raise the dollar from the knees, and for EURUSD it’d be fine to bounce a bit after a long period of growth. Testing of the level 1.1860 today indicates that the market was looking for a good entry for short positions, so those who have not yet joined the "global rally euro" trade, it is reasonable to jump in only next week, after the market plays out NFP. The UK construction sector continues to receive a blow after the blow, experiencing stagnation in the real estate market. The index of activity in the sector went worse than forecasts, but the secondary negative will probably remain unnoticed, as the focus is on the decision of the British Central Bank on Thursday. Inflation, taking a pause in June, allows officials to maintain a preventive stimulus, because what difficulties for the economy conceals Brexit are still unclear and in Mark Carney's opinion it is better to serve the “dish" slightly overheated than cold. The pound, of course, climbs higher, so that on soft comments it's good to break down. The only fundamental rationale for a strong pound is strong exports, but here one must also remember that it was paradoxically dependent on a weak currency. Oil prices remain stable before the release of EIA data, the news background remains relatively favorable after the meeting of OPEC, data on US stocks still do not bring a strong negative. Gold prices fell by half a percentage point, the first alarm bell that NFP data could shift the balance in favor of hawkish rhetoric at the next Fed meeting.
Short
by Tickmill
1
EURGBP - BOE might be the catalyst for thisThis week the top 3 currencies to focus on will be the AUD, GBP and USD. Looking at EURGBP, price has reached the minimum expected area for an expanded flat structure, forming the X structure of a higher degree. Coupled with the RSI divergence and crawl move of the price development, we are in anticipation that a down move is coming soon. For this, we will be patient and potentially capitalise this trade during Thursday's BOE Rate Statement. *Make sure you have a proper trading plan to engage the market.
Short
by KarYong
GBPJPY - Short term sell before another buyWhile my medium to long term perspective on GBPJPY remains bullish, I am expecting a short term downside before the buyers come back to push price higher. This gives me a short term sell opportunity this week - 1) Price is forming a diagonal structure, a reversal pattern; 2) We are seeing a RSI divergence, showing a lack of strength and momentum to push price higher; and 3) Price has reach a 200% fibonacci extension, completing the minimum criteria for wave 3, giving me an expectation that we might be seeing a wave 4 correction soon. However, taking reference from USDJPY, we might still see price continue to inch higher first before the fall / correction comes. Keeping a close watch for a potential sell setup this week. P.S. USDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY are all presenting similar setups. **Take reference from USDJPY as it will 'lead' the others :)
by KarYong
2
GBPUSD - Don't Rush Into ItAfter a sell off in the UK Pound from the election last week, we saw a hawkish BOE this week. Well... another flip flop in the market that might have left traders confused. Here's my perspective on GBPUSD - I believe we still have more down side for this pair, perhaps towards the 1.2510 area. Technical analysis wise - 1) We have a bearish impulse formed, and price seems to be in a correction now; 2) US Dollar Index (DXY) as shared earlier this week was previously in a reversal area, and bounced off strongly - Fundamental analysis wise - 1) The FED is hawkish and potential rate hike is still very much on the table; 2) The BOE is looking to push for a rate hike, but the current rise in inflation is very much due to the short term depreciation of the Pound - fundamentally and economic wise, not as strong a case as compared to the US. **However, the downside risk on this still hinges on Trump and Yellen. There are still uncertainties in the US economy and political scene. Taking into account all these, I believe there is still some small upside potential for GBPUSD to move, perhaps towards 1.2870 area, to complete the correction before we might see another drop in GBPUSD. Again, I would like to emphasise that we are not saying it's gonna fall for sure, but just a higher probability of it falling then rising impulsively - at least from what we are seeing now.
by KarYong
4