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Dragon XD Setup and outlook for GBPAUDGBPAUD looks to consolidate in between 1.662xx and 1.670xx until the start of the European session Dragon setup will give me a indication of market direction but I wont be using it as an entry until further confirmation. If GBP breaks the major trend line I will be looking to go long after further analysis but if it breaks the hourly resistance line I will be looking to short this pair. I expect the bears are looking to complete another Brexit wave as the Pound continues its downtrend into a tighter zone. GBP is pushing further into overbought conditions and is now at resistance of a Brexit dynamic trend line dating back 2016. High market volatility for this pair is expected as BOE news release (4AM EST) will push market markets to either reverse or breakout on this pair. AUD movements will be under the influence by Asian Data releases in the past 24/7 and Employment and Unemployment data releases. UK's inflation rates and CPI data has push the pound to surpass expectations against this bearish bias of the economical docket. Quite a bit of uncertainty for this pair this week but I will be target opportunities on both side of the fence. I will update this idea with a setup
by FXRCAPITAL
Anything Can Happen . XRP Ripple with the BanksAnything Can Happen when daytrading with the Banks. Now that a simple Google Search can let you know that JP Morgan is working with Ethereum, so too one discovers Ripple has heard public support from the Bank of England, Banks in Japan, Dubai and Europe. I'm looking for a Bullish year for Ripple with lots of Price Action similar to Ethereum. We can start looking at cryptos like the dollar bills in our pocket. Bitcoin is the big shiny piece of gold, home base. Litecoin is our silver. Dash may be the $100. Ethereum $50. And we shall see where Ripple positions itself to be. If the Big 10 Coins look steady in the fall, look for STEEM, BURST, GOLOS, DOGE to join the contenders for the USD.
Long
by allthemoneys
2
GBPJPY: If it breaks the weekly mode, it can soarI'm long $GBPJPY, as part of my FX portfolio, I think we might see an increase in FDI in Great Britain, after the Brexit vote. The Yen lets foreign investors acquire free money to invest in US and UK assets. The chart is interesting here, so it's probably a good pair to trade on the long side. The spread in the UK stock market compared to the European one is interesting as well. I like the potential short squeeze in the Pound to further boost this trade once commercial shorts unwind. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Intraday trend analysisGBPUSD appears to have an 8h timeframe trend here. There's risk of this becoming a 'Brexit flash crash #2' situation, considering how the intraday trend time and price target imply a potential turning point when the news come out. My reccomendation is, either to stand aside. I think the market will frustrate the most people, and not start a big trend, neither up or down, simply, staying in a larger triangle/sideways pattern consolidation. If the market is range bound, fading the range extremes will prove to be profitable. I have my doubts about the dollar, since it appears to have a major topping pattern, but I reccommend caution here, perhaps it's best to trade after the news effects are known, so it might be feasible to trade technical short term trends, both up and down in FX, for a good while. If this indeed breaks up, then we could see a trend gain traction in the long term, which would be beneficial for emerging markets, and also give us more interesting trading opportunities. Let's wait and see. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
6
SPX: Breakdown of the downtrend, and longer term signalsSPX is getting extremely interesting, now that VIX has spiked for more than 5 points on the current market decline. I'm monitoring the decline to catch the exact bottom in the market, which I think can end up matching the bottom in oil, and the energy sector, and a great chance to add to my EEM longs too, and acquire more latin american stocks. I updated my time at mode analysis for SPX in the yearly timeframe, and there's a target at 2987usd, so, we might end up seeing that after the correction bottoms. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
5
GBPUSD: Now we have confirmation for my stupid short idea...The technical chart has confirmed a weekly downtrend in the Pound as I expected, and despite being trailed out in profit, I'm looking to reenter shorts with force at market open, with a significant position size, aiming to risk 0.5-1% if the idea fails. In this news article, it's hinted that May will talk about a Hard Brexit in her Tuesday speech, which would give the bears some ammo to drive the pair down with momentum: www.bloomberg.com The fundamentals are strong for the dollar, and on a relative strength basis, the US dollar has the upper hand, both fundamentally and technically, which favors bearish trades in the $GBPUSD pair. Downside targets are signaled on chart. We have: 11 week 'Time at Mode' downtrend signal, confirmed on close last Friday, target is 1.13436 initially, to be hit before March 24th ideally. 13 day downtrend, continuation of the decline after the US dollar interest rate hike on December which kicked the decline off. After recently breaking down under the Presidential election key level and retesting it at the recent top, the Pound accelerated down, flashing the technical signal in my previous publication. It retested resistance and confirmed a daily downtrend on Friday. Targets are 1.18864 and 1.17693, to be achieved by Jan 31st or sooner. Keep an eye on these levels for a potential reaction in price. Also watch the strange flash crash day key levels, and the high and low of that day, since it may prove to be significant once again, although it's still a mystery what caused that event. A move above 1.21717 would invalidate the daily signal, and above 1.23854 the weekly signal would be rendered a failure, and immediate upside implied on a breakout of this resistance. Upside for such an event would be huge, since it would squeeze bears big time, sending the Pound up to 1.34406. I labeled this on chart, but it would be a shocking turn of events, and a lower probability. I'm open to going long if we break above this weekly zone, since the squeeze would result in a profitable trade, offsetting loss from bearish trades. Good luck! Ivan Labrie
Short
by IvanLabrie
27
GBPUSD: Long term decline analysisThis is the long term outlook for GBPUSD, we can see that the signal here has been working well, and although I had initially identified it as a quarterly signal, it belongs to a higher timeframe to correctly portray the activity in it according to the 'Time at mode' methodology. For now, we'd have to wait for this year to end to judge the future shorter term targets to validate the bearish momentum, but we can already keep the target in mind, to flip long after covering any short we have once hit, or if the time expires, or, to identify long term resistance levels to short against on rallies. The daily chart tells us to wait, and so does the weekly for now, so, I'll keep an eye on it to short rallies, or the confirmation of a lower timeframe 'Time at mode' downtrend signal like the one in related ideas. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
GBPUSD: Time at mode uptrend might give us a great short soonGBPUSD has an interesting chart here, with very clear resistance levels and a stop loss level for short trades. We will be looking to short the top of the current uptrend, to rejoin the long term decline in the Pound. I think the uptrend is doomed from the get go, being a pullback in a downtrend, so, I will look to fade the rally when safe. The chart shows a potential signal that could take price to the vicinity of 1.2830, but, there is a massive supply level at 1.2767 that could make the uptrend fail. Look for shorts above 1.2767 ideally, you can take a long term position and spread the selling over multiple days, using the stop on chart. If the analysis is correct, we'll get more confirmation for a precise technical short entry soon, for now, wait for updates here, and watch it. Going long isn't reccomended, although this will probably rally while EURUSD retraces. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
GBPJPY: Speculative long positionWe have an interesting setup here, but it's not for the faint of heart. Risk is big in the Pound pairs, so only risk 0.5% on the long here. The spread with USDJPY might close soon, so you might have sizeable upside in this pair. Invalidation is a move back under last week's open for this trade idea. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. ps: I'm still unsure of the GBPUSD pair, so I'm currently flat, although I'd reccomend caution trading it. Size trades small so you have reasonable risk. Look at the ATR indicator for clues.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Brave traders, here you have a short ideaWe have an interesting setup in GBPUSD. The loss of momentum in the rally leads to a viable short setup, either at market open, risking a rally to 1.2624, or shorting on a new daily low, risking a new daily high. I expect the next leg to go down, but I'm not sure if we can trend down right away. It's more likely going to chop and gyrate between key levels until the end of the year. We can accumulate short positions on each rally, and with some luck, we might even be able to keep them with break even stops if things go really well. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
3
BOE monetary policy and rate decision - Saving the Pound? On Thursday BOE will publish its rate decision and monetary policy summary. Following latest Carney's speech, people now know that BOE is starting to monitor the currency's weakness following Brexit - They will pay attention to what BOE will have to say about it in the coming meeting. Technically 1.21 is the current support zone. The price is holding above it and created couple of Intraday reversal signals once it touched it... Still the price is below the Fast MA line and hasn't created any higher high or higher low till now. With FOMC before BOE meeting we can see GBPUSD pressing down towards 1.21 again and perhaps even 1.2. Will it be a buying opportunity towards the BOE meeting? Will be interesting to monitor - We will get a potential confirmation signal if GBPUSD will climb above the MA line for the first time since its Flash Crash. Read more trading ideas in my newsletters (link in signature)
Long
by themarketzone
GBPUSD: Fighting my biasI don't want to long the dollar right now, and many of my trades are centered around strength of commodities, oil, equities, so a dollar long, pretty much would rain on my parade. Now, I also don't want to be exposed to strongly correlated trades only, and not diversify, and I definitely don't want to trade with blinders on, and avoid taking good trades due to my personal biases, whatever they might be. So, I play Devil's advocate for a bit here, and try to decipher the GBPUSD chart. I'm looking at the GBPUSD and inverted GBPUSD weekly chart here. It appears like relative strength has been bad for the Pound and recent news about the Brexit 'implementation' have hurt Pound bulls considerably, making the bullish technical setups we had fail. I see we have a weekly time at mode signal in play, a weekly range expansion bar, and a huge downside (or upside target in the case of the inverted Pound chart). I'm sure this is a stupid trade, so probably, it a good one to take. What are your thoughts? Leave your comments behind. Good luck if you follow my idea. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
EURGBP - ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI & BOE SHAFIK SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSECB Draghi: Draghi: Our Measures Are Working, Creating Jobs Draghi: Our Measures Ensure Recovery that Will Ultimately Benefit German Savers, Pensioners Draghi: We Take German Concerns Seriously Draghi: Economic Policies are Essential to Complement our Monetary Policy Draghi: Price Stability Doesn't Mean Inflation of 0% Draghi: We Need to Act When Inflation Is Close to 0% Draghi: Our Measures Have Delivered Draghi: Very Low Rates Affect People's Finances, Welfare Draghi: Low Rates Reflect Weak Long-Term Growth Draghi: Inflation-Adjusted Interest Rates Have Been Low Many Times in Germany Before Euro -0.01% Draghi: German Exports Benefit from Euro -0.01% Area Economic Recovery Draghi: German Unemployment Is At Its Lowest Since Reunification Draghi: Low Financing Costs Are Good News for Germany's Finance Ministry Draghi: ECB Policy Isn't Main Factor For Low Profitability of Banks Draghi: German Banks' Cost-to-Income Ratios Are Relatively High Draghi: Low Rates For a Long Period Risk Overvaluation in Asset Markets Draghi: Not Seeing Overheating in Eurozone, German Economy As a Whole Draghi: For Rates to Rise, We Need More Investment, Economic Reforms Draghi: Policymakers Need to Seize Opportunity to Deliver Reforms Draghi: Low Rates Today Are Necessary for Return to Higher Rates in Future Draghi: Need to Allow ECB Policy Measures to Develop Full Impact ECB Draghi: Thankful for Respect of ECB Independence From German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: The ECB Is Sensitive to Risks, People's Concerns About Low Rates ECB Draghi: 'Very Satisfactory Exchange' With German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: I Cherish Occasion for Debate With German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: Germany is Close to Full Employment, Fiscal Stimulus Should Be Carefully Targeted ECB Draghi: Germany is Close to Full Employment, Fiscal Stimulus Should Be Carefully Targeted ECB Draghi: I Never Argued for Irresponsible Fiscal Expansion Draghi: Major Central Banks Have All Embarked on Large-Scale Sovereign Bond Purchase Programs BOE Shafik: BOE Shafik: No Doubt UK Experiencing "Sizeable Economic Shock" BOE Shafik: Likely That Further Monetary Stimulus Will Be Needed BOE Shafik: Reduction In Openness Implies Slower Growth BOE Shafik: Brexit Uncertainty Is Weighing On Business Investment
by QuantumLogicTrading
1
EURGBP - ECB PRESIDENT DRAGHI & BOE SHAFIK SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSECB Draghi: Draghi: Our Measures Are Working, Creating Jobs Draghi: Our Measures Ensure Recovery that Will Ultimately Benefit German Savers, Pensioners Draghi: We Take German Concerns Seriously Draghi: Economic Policies are Essential to Complement our Monetary Policy Draghi: Price Stability Doesn't Mean Inflation of 0% Draghi: We Need to Act When Inflation Is Close to 0% Draghi: Our Measures Have Delivered Draghi: Very Low Rates Affect People's Finances, Welfare Draghi: Low Rates Reflect Weak Long-Term Growth Draghi: Inflation-Adjusted Interest Rates Have Been Low Many Times in Germany Before Euro Draghi: German Exports Benefit from Euro Area Economic Recovery Draghi: German Unemployment Is At Its Lowest Since Reunification Draghi: Low Financing Costs Are Good News for Germany's Finance Ministry Draghi: ECB Policy Isn't Main Factor For Low Profitability of Banks Draghi: German Banks' Cost-to-Income Ratios Are Relatively High Draghi: Low Rates For a Long Period Risk Overvaluation in Asset Markets Draghi: Not Seeing Overheating in Eurozone, German Economy As a Whole Draghi: For Rates to Rise, We Need More Investment, Economic Reforms Draghi: Policymakers Need to Seize Opportunity to Deliver Reforms Draghi: Low Rates Today Are Necessary for Return to Higher Rates in Future Draghi: Need to Allow ECB Policy Measures to Develop Full Impact ECB Draghi: Thankful for Respect of ECB Independence From German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: The ECB Is Sensitive to Risks, People's Concerns About Low Rates ECB Draghi: 'Very Satisfactory Exchange' With German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: I Cherish Occasion for Debate With German Lawmakers ECB Draghi: Germany is Close to Full Employment, Fiscal Stimulus Should Be Carefully Targeted ECB Draghi: Germany is Close to Full Employment, Fiscal Stimulus Should Be Carefully Targeted ECB Draghi: I Never Argued for Irresponsible Fiscal Expansion Draghi: Major Central Banks Have All Embarked on Large-Scale Sovereign Bond Purchase Programs BOE Shafik: BOE Shafik: No Doubt UK Experiencing "Sizeable Economic Shock" BOE Shafik: Likely That Further Monetary Stimulus Will Be Needed BOE Shafik: Reduction In Openness Implies Slower Growth BOE Shafik: Brexit Uncertainty Is Weighing On Business Investment
by QuantumLogicTrading
ECB DRAGHI & BOE FORBES SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - EURGBP GBPUSD EURUSDECB DRAGHI: -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERBANKING A FACTOR IN LOW LEVEL OF BANK PROFITABILITY -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERCAPACITY MEANS SECTOR IS NOT EFFICIENT -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS LIFE INSURERS FACE WEAK PROFITABILITY UNLESS THEY REFORM BUSINESS MODELS -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS MARGIN AND HAIRCUT REQUIREMENTS COULD IMPROVE FINANCIAL STABILITY BOE'€™S FORBES: NOT YET CONVINCED THAT ADDITIONAL MONETARY EASING WILL BE NECESSARY -Did not support asset purchases as felt costs were greater than benefits -Now QE announced, will not be voting against it each month, barring substantial economic change -Behaviour of consumers and businesses, and evolution of prices is critically important in determining the appropriate action -Initial effect on the economy of the referendum has been less stormy than many expected -Some evidence that companies are delaying major investments; commercial property and housing market are weaker -Consumer spending is strong and net exports are poised to pick up -Aggregate impact of all of these forces appears to be a modest slowing in the economy to date
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
ECB DRAGHI & BOE FORBES SPEECH HIGHLIGHTS - EURGBP GBPUSD EURUSDECB DRAGHI: -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERBANKING A FACTOR IN LOW LEVEL OF BANK PROFITABILITY -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS OVERCAPACITY MEANS SECTOR IS NOT EFFICIENT -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS LIFE INSURERS FACE WEAK PROFITABILITY UNLESS THEY REFORM BUSINESS MODELS -ECB'S DRAGHI SAYS MARGIN AND HAIRCUT REQUIREMENTS COULD IMPROVE FINANCIAL STABILITY BOE'€™S FORBES: NOT YET CONVINCED THAT ADDITIONAL MONETARY EASING WILL BE NECESSARY -Did not support asset purchases as felt costs were greater than benefits -Now QE announced, will not be voting against it each month, barring substantial economic change -Behaviour of consumers and businesses, and evolution of prices is critically important in determining the appropriate action -Initial effect on the economy of the referendum has been less stormy than many expected -Some evidence that companies are delaying major investments; commercial property and housing market are weaker -Consumer spending is strong and net exports are poised to pick up -Aggregate impact of all of these forces appears to be a modest slowing in the economy to date
by QuantumLogicTrading