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GBPJPY: Potential breakout trade / Time at Mode signalThe analysis of multiple timeframes in GBPJPY leads me to believe that we might see a bullish breakout emerge from this juncture. If we base on the relative strength readings, obtained from my ratio analysis, pairing gold vs each currency, we'd be biased towards a bullish trade setup here. Although rgmov doesn't signal a new 44 bar high in any timeframe, the monthly does have a recent uptrend, which turned into a lengthy sideways move, and price is emerging right from support, so this opportunity should be considered. Check out my previous Nikkei chart, and the gbp/xau, an jpy/xau ones, as well as Tim West's own analysis on the Nikkei for more information. The 3 targets on chart are potential reversal zones as well, the low volatility enviroment we're in makes me think we have a very big move coming! I take this trade as a hedge against my longer term shorts in usdjpy and my eurusd and usdchf longs. It's good to keep a balanced portfolio when opening and managing multiple positions, without being incoherent with our own analysis and methodology. I'll post uptades and send broadcasts with more information, related charts and associated add on trades to my followers at collective2. Check out my profile for details. Currently offering a 15 day free trial. Kind regards, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
GBPJPY: This might be it...GBPJPY is offering a significantly interesting short opportunity, the telltale signs are there. If we look closely, we see that price has bounced from the biggest mode in the downtrend since 1991, and could never go back over it. In time at mode terms, we have a very clear weekly downtrend signal, confirmed by rgmov in the daily plotting a new 2 month low. This offers a very good short setup if we get a retracement entry. Be sure to take it! Entry would be anything above 191.91, with a stop loss slightly above the weekly mode at 193.468 (make it say 193.568) Good luck! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
13
GBPUSD to confirm short soonThanks to The Working Trader for bringing this to my attention. We have considerably bearish GBPUSD news, mentions of a possible rate cut, amongst others... The technical setup in both daily and weekly charts is clear, downtrend continuation. My time and price target is ultimately 1.41021, to be reached at or before June 1st. The entry hasn't been confirmed on the daily, but RgMov is already printing new lows ahead of price action, which is a bearish signal. I'll update with my entry short. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
3
Nikkei: UpdateCorrection started, as expected. We now have a bearish target in sight: 19184 by April 27th. This level and date will be a potential retracement area, or reversal, depending on how price action evolves. Considering the scale of the uptrend, I don't think this correction will end there, but we'll see. Better expand as we move forward. I am short GBPJPY, and monitoring SPX, EURJPY, AUDJPY and USDJPY for important clues about this large development. Will post updates here.
FX:JPN225Short
by IvanLabrie
14
Position trade: EURGBP shortI went short today, after getting a bearish signal confirming a possible large decline in this pair. The BOE is maintaining a hawkish view, which spells nothing but trouble for the Euro. Introduction of QE by the ECB in the coming days will seal the deal, making me consider an extreme target of 0.68013 and an intermediate term one at 0.7552. The level I consider as invalidating is a retest of 0.7951, which would make the pair start ranging. If the trade were to turn against me and travel 100 pips up, I'll enter a second batch with the same lot size. If it were to continue trending up, as long as the invalidation level is not reached, I'll increase the position to average out. Good luck!
Short
by IvanLabrie
18
GBPCAD: Perfect long?Thanks to 'The working trader' for bringing this up. This is my own take on this pair. The chart shows the time at mode bullish setup I'm looking at for entry. I suggest buying the dip if possible. I'm seeing potential for a very large move to the upside, favored by an uptrending rgmov, completion of the downtrend signals in the recent decline reaching a 0.786 retracement of the previous rally, which looks like the retracement you'd get after an impulsive rally culminating in an extended fifth wave. The fundamental landscape, paired with the multiple correlated markets influencing this currency pair make me rate this trade as too good to ignore. Good luck! Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
GBPAUD: In depth time at mode analysisI spent a long time analyzing this pair, contrasting views with my colleague Nick Coulby, who specializes in Elliott Wave analysis, and working on my own time at mode analysis of this pair, as well as adding the result of insightful discussions held at Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom, regarding this topping pattern, as well as the patterns in the gold chart, and it's Elliott Wave analysis. All this rich information and length analytical process leads me to conclude the following: The uptrend isn't done, and while we see gold rallying, this pair will correct down offering a potentially interesting short setup, before lending us a perfect position trade on the long side if it meets my expectations. Ultimately the structure in gold is corrective, and the faith of the Aussie dollar's strength is connected to it, as well as to other dollar linked commodities (iron ore, copper), and subjected to stronger easing biases, vs those of the United Kingdom's BOE. In this regard, on the subject of fundamental analysis, we can see that the bias it favors is on the long side, but the timing for trading with it wouldn't position us favorably in this trade. I'll be looking for shorts as soon as gold starts rallying again, waiting for a retest of the top area, since I think we're seeing a corrective X wave flat pattern with limited downside. This will lead to new highs to complete the monthly uptrend signal target which will possibly form a new zigzag with a wedge C wave like we have observed before in this pair. This new wedge C wave will be the top of this formation offering an ideal short trade of larger implications, which is what I'm after. Conclusion is: If this model holds, and I think it's highly probable that it will, we will see a range bound situation, leading to a new high in a sharp advance, after which we will probably observe a terminal wedge pattern, which will be our cue for the interesting short setup, which should retrace the whole structure, and lead to a perfect long entry to rejoin the larger quarterly uptrend. I will continue to update this publication, since I think it has great potential and value, both as a journal, and as a testament of both Tradingview.com's and Tim West's 'time at mode' model's power. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
41
GBPAUD: Doves vs Hawks pt.2I'm watching this pair closely, there's a time at mode downtrend currently active but the target was already reached. We have a lot of interesting news events today for both currencies which makes me think we will have an excellent opportunity on the long side here. I'll update with my suggested entry once I'm convinced enough. Longer term time at mode targets are still active and valid, so I think we will soon reach them based on both technicals and fundamental information. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
GBPCAD: Trend reversal?I think this is the case here. We have reached the profile point of balance projection from the low to the longterm mode of this uptrend. As expected, price sharply reversed in one day, consuming almost 3 days worth of progress. I'm waiting for the daily close to enter short, will update the chart once I'm ready, also adding 4h charts to better illustrate the price action that supports my thesis. I think this is a very good trade, potentially worth risking 1% (my full position allocation). Entry will be divided in two with a partial TP to make the rest of the trade risk free. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
17
GBPUSD: Potential weekly downtrend spottedWe have an interesting trade setting up in GBPUSD. The time at mode signal points to an intermediate term decline to 1.4222, that can extend to 1.39366. What's interesting about it is that the resistance above very strong and that the signal generates close to the expected Fed rate hike week. I think we might get a fill this week, and if the trade works, it will be a very sharp selloff. For assistance managing positions and entering without having to do the work, you can check out my Zulutrade page in my profile, I'll be sending trades through it from now on for convenience. Seems like a fair way for people to follow my trades without being forced to pay a fixed monthly fee (which only benefits the trader, who doesn't need to even profit from trades to make money! -red flag-). Follow me on twitter, I'll update charts here but not with trade management and trailing suggestions like before (I do need to pay bills :) ) Check out my recent TLT trade for an example of trade management. We will have few trades, but good ones if all goes as expected, the sharp selloff in the S&P500 was the start of a new trending enviroment possibly, and if that's the case, we can expect to see strong volatility, and sharp and wide trending legs for us to take. Cheers! Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
13
GBPNZD: the beginning of a longterm uptrendThis is my time at mode analysis of this pair. Currently kicking off with a strong uptrend off a longterm mode. The horizontal lines map different areas of high volume from the past, which were 'fair value' at one given time. They are magnetic in nature and offer valuable clues as to where price will move, or where price will stop and reverse. In Elliott Wave terms, there's a clear impulse in sight, but I'm not 100% sure about its construction. Quoting my friend's Nick Coulby's work, this might be the start of the 3rd wave, inside a larger 5 wave structure. This could always resolve into a series of nested 1-2,1-2 impulses that end up in an explosive move up, so I'll just focus on buying the correction completion.
Long
by IvanLabrie
18
GBPNZD: Potential range tradeWe have a confluence of signals indicating a long is possible from this area. We got: Key hidden levels options expirations support Downtrend signal that probably won't be reached in time. (if not reached = bullish!) RgMov in an uptrend since the inverted head and shoulders in jangseohee's chart formed. Also showing fibonacci levels of support at play. (It can be used to detect trends and sentiment very well, great tool) CCI showing a hidden divergence and quarterly ROC showing an uptrend. Price action suggests this oversold spike down reached its end, specially if we break above the last daily bar's high. Feel free to comment, and take this trade as well...Keep in mind price can extend down to meet my forecasted time at mode downtrend target by April 17th. I don't think it will, but it can. Targets would be between 1.97 and 1.99 in a strong surge, but it can extend higher. Stops are to be placed based on your own criteria, always follow your methodology, this is nothing more than a trade journal. Good luck!
Long
by IvanLabrie
14
GBPNZD: Correction spottedThis is an interesting chart. I was under the impression that this was a running correction intially but the recent price action makes me think otherwise. The majority of the people are expecting a rate cut this week, during the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday. With heavy UK data coming out tomorrow, volatility is a given and I think the bigger risk/reward ratio will be on the short side. Looking to short this week, using the 4h chart for entry, and scaling in as we move forward. I'll update with my entry and scale ins once the trade is active. This trade would serve as a hedge for GBPUSD longs. Good luck, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
21
GBPNZD: Forming an expanding terminal wedgeWe have one more push up left before this turns into a massive short in my opinion. Right now, I had a short running, from a lower timeframe entry but I'll cover and go long at the support level in green, which also matches an 11 bar daily mode. Look at the momentum indicators, I plotted a derivative oscillator, composite index and RSI with averages to illustrate my point: This is a topping formation, suggesting we sell the next swing up, which will probably form a lower momentum and atr peak before the house of cards comes crashing down. Risk is 180 pips, but the target lies 809.3 pips up, so I won't hesitate with this setup. Once we take profits from the long trade, we can initiate a short at the same area, so, leaving a take profit and a reverse position at the same price, using an ATR based stop. Will modify it if need be, for now I'd reccomend focusing on the long. See the related ideas for more examples on this methodology applied to this pair. Time at mode has been excellent at timing and pricing swing end points before, and I believe it will work again this time. Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
35
GBP/USD Bearish Wedge Back on Track after BoE, NFPsThis is a follow up and an expansion on our GBPUSD chart posted last week (see link to related ideas below). The recent rejection of $1.5660/1.5700 has resulted in a loss of the uptrend from the July 8, 9, and 24 lows. In context of the potential longer-term pattern - a bearish rising wedge that commenced with the break in price on July 7 and subsequent rejection of wedge TL support as resistance on July 15 - it looks like the next leg lower in GBPUSD is beginning. The key level to watch into the end of the week is ~$1.5460, the swing low in the countertrend rally on July 24. A weekly close below this level would offer a confirmation signal for a move lower (further supported by H4 and daily indicators spilling over into bearish territory). Key levels lower to watch come in at ~$1.5315 and ~$1.5160. Bears may find risk contained to $1.5635, the pre-BoE "Super Thursday" high in price on August 6. Still, with resistance having established itself in the $1.5660/1.5700 area (as noted in the chart from last week), gains may be difficult to come by on the long side; the path of least resistance is lower.
Short
by CVecchioFX3e
2
GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Long Position Triggered;Talking Points: GBPUSD Technical Strategy : Bullish Support: 1.5475, 1,5357, 1.5250 Resistance: 1.5635, 1.5675, 1.5780 GBPUSD had a beating from BOE, but we still believe there is one pending leg up before it’s turn bearish. Currently pair broken bullish daily trendline but supported by bearish weekly trendline. We are expecting range trading between 1.5780 & 1.5500. Breaking below 1.5475 can find support at 1.5375. While above 1.5640 can open door towards 1.5780. On Elliottwave view, we are holding temporary bullish view as part of correction label of wave (w)-(x)-(y) as part of flat correction. Our primary target will be 1.5780, while daily close above the bearish channel at 1.5640 will boost our confidence. Our long from 1.5485 triggered and for primary target for 1.5780. Once, we reach our first target, we will close half position and leave half for more momentary gain. To receive instance trade update and analysis in your mailbox, please subscribe us for risk free 15 days trial by sending mail to hoagtrading@gmail.com
Long
by Hittesh
EURUSD and GBPUSD: updateAnalysis on chart. I'll update it once I see a clear short signal in the weekly chart. Daily remains turbulent and unclear, it's possible to see a small rally, so shorting is a bit dangerous unless using wide stops and going long is even worse. I'll analyze price action and look into selling short once we see confirmation here. Crude oil seems to have resumed the downside, I'd be skeptical of a rally from here, but it's possible. As an addendum, TSLA might head down with crude oil, as gas gets cheaper and electric cars lose appeal (it has happened before). I'm looking to go long at a key level, as seen in my related idea below. Good luck, and have a nice weekend. Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
14