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Potential Reversal To 101.493 | $JPY $USD $Nikkei #BOJ #forexSYNOPSIS: Potential Reversal - Condition: 115.551 failure - Opens to: 1 - TG-Lo =104.750 - 05 JAN 2015 and 2 - TG-x =101.493 - 05 JAN 2015 Structural Relevance applies to latter ("TG-x =101.493 - 05 JAN 2015") (Note that separate analysis on the UDX and USDollar index were denounced as potential bearish reversal contenders per predictive model - See third link attached below for these analyses.) STANDARD GEOMETRY: A projection of parallels define a plausible bearish channel, whose upper projection caps the most recent bullish impulse. The overall system defines a bearish channel with multiple validation points at specific R/S levels and gaps, adding credence to these lines. Still, a set of condition remains to be met, as defined below. ELLIOTT WAVES: Recent rally appears to have reached a plausible 5th wave extension with internal dynamics of a completed impulse. A rallying to higher highs would cancel this proposition, but a break below 115.551 would add credence to further downside. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING: Predictive model has defined the targets just mentioned above. As indicated, the first nominal target calls for a low-probability attainment and high-probability reversal at 104.750. However, a worst-case scenario played out in the model comes defined as TG-x = 101.493. This latter low-probability target/very-high-probability reversal falls in line with a significant historical R/S level, as highlighted in the chart. OVERALL: Standard technical pattern, predictive model and two-degree wave count point to a potential resistance at recent structural high of 121.838. If recent support at 115.551 fails, the floor would open possibly to the predictive model's forecasts of TG-Lo = 104.750 and TG-x = 101.493. These bearish outlook corroborate well with recent bearish forecast against the USD. For the time being, the directional bias remains set at "Neutral" based on mitigating reasons defined above. Stay tuned, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA ----- Twitter: @4xForecaster -----
by 4xForecaster
48
Long GBPAUD - Fundamentals and Technical matchesEntered Long GBPAUD at 1.83295 (200-Hour Smoothed MA and also 23.6% of 1.72134-1.86828) Fundamental: With BoE minutes/ RBA Speech/ Australia CPI inflation coming out, volatility should ensue. USD weakness has caused both GBP and AUD to be at elevated levels. Feels AUD more so after better than expected China GDP, IP, etc. numbers. Technical: AUDUSD has been in consolidation since start of the month, whilst GBPUSD looks more likely to look for a retracement after the swift fall. Daily chart as above also showed a bullish flag pattern on the GBPAUD pair (credits to EagleTrades - link below) Both 100 and 200 DMA are trending upwards SL right below 200 DMA which coincides with previous high in August (1.81866) TP1/2 at 1.8600/80 respectively
Long
by Speculator2
Higher rates thoughts push down EurStay short EurGbp or, if you prefear, long GBP! Since the macro economic data started to improve, the pressure on the exchange rate has became stronger. The beginning of rates normalization will make the UK's currency more expansive versus the Euromoney. At the same time, the chart seems to confirm the bearish view: It is unlikely (given also the macro-analysis) that the price will brake-up the current level @0.7895, looking also at the RSI oscillator (in 60 area), we have no signs of bullish trend beginnin. My view is that the price will continue its down trend, following the channel you can clearly see on the charts. Take care of 0.78 area that could be a strong point of inversion or continuation of the trend.
Short
by NicoS
BoE & GBPJPY IdeaIt remains that the ongoing improvements in unemployment, a lagging economic indicator, coupled with a solid recovery should eventually lead to a rise in wage growth. As a result, the current weak earning growth may not reflect the current health of the job market as it is an even more lagging indicator than unemployment. Furthermore, the 2-3% rise in the national minimum wage in October could be a catalyst for broader wage growth while supporting household consumption. As the recovery is expected to remain strong while the job market continues to improve, the BoE stays positioned to be the first major central bank to start its tightening cycle. British pound weakness unlikely to continue - Eye on GBPJPY The British pound has weakened as the odds to see a hike before year-end has decreased. However, the relative supportive monetary policy should support the Sterling in the longer-term. As a result, I do not consider this weakness as a trend reversal but as a temporary countertrend move. A long position in GBP/JPY remains an attractive vehicle to be exposed to a renewed strength in Sterling. My recommendation : Buy GBPJPY above 171.50 stop @170.45 ,Target1 173.80 & Target1 174.60 , Good Luck
Long
by AymanKhlifatb7
$GBPUSD idea; 1.705 down to 1.6982H Chart: as this pair has been in a slight over-buy lately with no BoE releases supporting it. I believe we will see a greater decline in this pair. Keeping in mind, I have a strong feeling this pair will be a long-term decline. I'll be opening higher-leveraged units on this pair to ride the coaster. I'll also be taking a quick look at some BoE releases if any this week. forgot to mention; i'm a high risk trader so this is a 50k-70k unit trade Take a look at my Linked related ideas for my long-term outlook on GBPUSD.
Short
by zcsniper
Finally Hit February Target ... Spot On | $GBP $USD #BOE #ForexFriends, A lot of paper printing has been going on since we first released a Target-High @ 1.68923 on February 2014. This was a long call asking the position trader to hold tight, but a prop pattern justified the initial call, and back with the right predictive analysis and forecasting system, I am glad to see it attain its final destination as of today - Here was the initial analysis and forecast: Now that the pattern has come to a close, I would like to add a cautionary note to eager bears. Looking at the chart closer (i.e.: from an initial weekly/daily analytical eye to a wary H4/M15 glance), there is a possibility of a reversal at an incrementally higher level. From a weekly scale, this may be of no particular interest to the position traders, but worth noting, as I am preparing for a potential reversal, which require finer granular approaches. Indeed, a prop reversal pattern is calling for a top at TG-Hi = 1.69166 - 01 MAY 2014. Most importantly, this potential reversal may also become another position trade opp, as a larger pattern points to a resting target-low at 1.58923. Considering the scale of the pattern and the timing to completion (similar to the forecast that lead to this particular target-hit), if indeed a reversal occurred, smaller-timeframe trader might simply be aware that a new directional wind may be underway. I recommend that the experienced trader uses his own accustomed armamentarium to affirm or infirm the possibility of such reversal, as I remain available for discussion about your methodology, as well as mine - although I cannot reveal too much of what's proprietary. Nonetheless, feel free to share, discuss and rate using the features offered in TradingView. Much appreciated. OVERALL: Major reversal is underway at or near target validation achieved today. A slightly loftier reversal target may exist for the finer granular traders, but in the scale of a larger frame of interest, I am now looking for reversal signs and signals. The directional tag has been turned to Neutral for cautionary reasons explained above, even though the strength remains bullish. Cheers, David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting --------------------------------------- Trading against a rigged market can be damaging to your health, even lethal. If you itch to put your life savings on the line, talk to your spouse over jasmine tea or some tranquilizing beverage - The appeasement is not for you, but for the spouse against your excitement. Oh, and consult a professional licensed financial adviser or someone who has knowledge of the financial vehicles that designed, packaged and sold you by these same financial institutions against which you trade at a disadvantage. But, before you step into that trap, always do your due diligence, and stop thinking you can outdo the market. Lose only what you wished you would have earned in retrospect, which is what you already got. ----------------------------------
by 4xForecaster
1