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Trump, BOJ could be the ideal divergent theme for USD/JPY bearsWe've just seen the BOJ deliver a hawkish hike, where they upgraded their inflation forecasts and cited rising wage pressures. This leaves the door open for further hikes this year. Meanwhile, Trump is now trying to strongarm the Fed and global central banks to lower interest rates immediately. Together, this is the ideal divergent theme currency traders crave. And the icing on the cake for USD/JPY bears would be if Trump begins his attack on a strong USD (which I think he will). Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Short
by CityIndex
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USDJPY - BoJ Interest Rate Decision?!Here is our in-depth view and update on USDJPY . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair sharing possible entries and important Key Levels. Alright first, let’s take a step back and take a look at USDJPY from a bigger perspective. For this we will be looking at the H4 time-frame . USDJPY is currently trading at around 155.800 . Our scenarios are in play after the BoJ (Bank of Japan) Interest Rate Decision is out. Let’s take another look at them with more in-depth outcomes. These scenarios are written from just a TA (Technical Analysis) point of view. Scenario 1: BUYS -We broke above 156.700 . With the break of 156.700 we can expect a possible move up to 158.748. With a a further break of this KL (Key Level) we can expect more upside on the pair potentially reaching top of the long-term range sitting at 161.820. Scenario 2: SELLS -We broke below 154.881 . If we break bellow 154.881 we can expect more downside on the pair even up to 152.000. With breaks of this level we could see even lower levels sitting at around 149.394 or “bottom of the long-term range”. IMPORTANT KEY LEVELS: - 161.820; top of the long-term range - 158.748; breaks above would result in more upside - 154.881; breaks below would result in sells - 152.817; breaks below confirming lower levels - 152.030; breaks below confirming lower levels - 149.394; bottom of the long-term range Personal opinion: It’s not advised to enter into sells or buys before we have a clear break or the BoJ Interest Rate Decision data out. For now we are patiently waiting on either breaks to the upside or breaks to the downside. More volatility on the pair is expected tomorrow so be careful. KEY NOTES - USDJPY breaking above 156.700 would confirm buys. - USDJPY breaking below 154.881 would confirm sells. - BoJ Interest Rate Decision is tomorrow. Happy trading! FxPocket
by FxPocket
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Japanese inflation and BoJ rate decision coming upLet's have a look what may happen with MARKETSCOM:JAPAN225 and FX_IDC:USDJPY after we get the Japanese data on Friday. We will be monitoring the data carefully, especially the rate decision, as it will be the first hike since July of last year. 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom
USD/JPY climbs, markets eye TrumpThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.53, up 0.68% on the day. There are no key releases in the US today. On Thursday, the US releases unemployment claims and President Trump will address the World Economic Forum. Trump has vowed to levy tariffs on US trading partners, including China and the European Union. The financial markets are taking his threats seriously, and on Monday, his first day in office as President, Trump announced that he was delaying applying tariffs until Feb. 1. That announcement was a relief for the market and the US dollar fell sharply against many of the majors, although the yen failed to gain ground. Will Trump's comments at the World Economic Forum shake up the financial markets? Investors are keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan rate decision and December Core CPI on Friday. The central bank has hinted at a rate hike at the rate meeting and is widely expected to raise rates to 0.50%, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. After decades of deflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy, inflation has taken root and the BoJ is slowly moving towards normalization. The BoJ's tightening cycle makes it an outlier among the major central banks, most of which are easing rates in response to lower inflation. Japan's core inflation rate has been steadily rising and is expected to climb to 3% y/y in December 2024, up from 2.7% in November which was a three-month high. The core rate, which is a key gauge of inflation trends, has remained above the BoJ target of 2% for over two years and is a key reason why the BoJ is tightening policy. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.51 and 156.24. Above, there is resistance at 156.97 154.78 and 154.05 are the next support levels
by OANDA
BoJ hikes rates, yen pares gainsThe Japanese yen gained as much as 0.8% earlier today but has failed to consolidate these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.03, dwon 0.02% on the day. The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points earlier today, as expected. This brings the policy rate to 0.5%, its highest level since October 2008, during the global financial crisis. The Japanese yen climbed sharply after the decision but was unable to consolidate these gains. The BoJ has been signaling that it planned to raise rates at today's meeting, although the BoJ tends to surprise the markets and a rate hike, while expected, was not a given. The BoJ statement expressed hope that this year's wage negotiations would result in strong wage increases, as was the case last year. Governor Ueda has said in the past that he would raise rates provided that inflation was driven by higher wages, which would show that inflation was sustainable. Wage growth has been moving higher and this resulted in today's rate hike. Japan's inflation rate has been moving higher and the December inflation report, which came out today, showed core CPI climbed to 3%, up from 2.7% in November and in line with the market estimate. The core rate has hovered above the BoJ's 2% target for 2.5 years and at today's meeting, the BoJ upgraded its inflation outlook to above 2% until 2026. Predictably, Governor Ueda didn't provide a timeline for the next rate hike at his post-meeting press conference, but a May rate hike is on the table if the wage negotiations result in higher wages and inflation does not weaken unexpectedly. Another key factor in the timing of the next rate hike will be President Trump's trade policy. Trump had promised to levy tariffs on US trading partners on his first day in office but has delayed the tariffs until at least Feb. 1. The BoJ will want to see which direction Trump's trade policy is going before raising rates again. There is support at 154.78 and 153.27 156.49 and 158.00 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Bank of Japan expected to raise rates, yen calmThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.25, down 0.16% on the day. All eyes are on the Bank of Japan, which meets early on Friday. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points which would bring the cash rate to 0.50%. The BoJ has said that it will raise rates if it sees higher wage growth, which would indicate that inflation is sustainable. BoJ policymakers have expressed confidence that wages are moving higher and Deputy Governor Himino said last week that many firms plan to raise wages at least as much as last year. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ's rate statement. The tone of the statement could be dovish as BoJ policymakers are concerned about President Donald Trump's threats to levy trade tariffs as early as Feb. 1, a move which could destabilize the financial markets. The BoJ will have to be cautious as it gauges the 'Trump factor". Another factor supporting a rate hike is the poor performance of the Japanese yen, which has declined around 9% in the past three months. The Federal Reserve is sounding more hawkish and might raise rates only once or twice this year. If the BoJ stays on the sidelines again, the yen could fall further. Overshadowed by the BoJ meeting, Japan releases December core CPI. Japan's core inflation rate has been climbing higher and is expected to climb to 3% y/y, up from 2.7% in November which was a three-month high. The core rate, which is closely watched by the BOJ, has hovered above the central bank's target of 2% for over two years. USD/JPY is testing support at 156.20. Below, there is support at 155.68 157.04 and 157.56 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/JPY calm in holiday tradeThe yen is almost unchanged on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.37, up 0.06% on the day. We can expect a quiet day, as the US observes Martin Luther King Day and Donald Trump will be sworn in as President. The yen is coming off a busy week, with sharp swings on each of the past three trading days. The Japanese currency gained 0.95% last week, its best week since November. Still, USD/JPY remains high and investors are anxiously awaiting the Bank of Japan rate decision on Jan. 24. There are no tier-1 releases out of Japan this week but investors will be busy keeping an eye on the Bank of Japan rate decision on Friday. The central bank tends not to telegraph its intentions but has hinted at a rate hike and the market will be on the lookout for any hints or signals from BoJ policy makers ahead of the rate decision. The BoJ is widely expected to raise rates to 0.50%, which would be the highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. After decades of deflation and an ultra-loose monetary policy, inflation has taken root and the BoJ is slowly moving towards normalization. Inflation has been above the BoJ's 2% target for almost three years and higher wage growth means that inflation should remain sustainable as it moves higher. The weak yen is another reason for the BoJ to raise rates and make the yen more attractive to investors. The big question mark is Donald Trump, whose has promised tariffs on US trading partners, which threatens to shake up the financial markets and damage Japan's crucial export sector. The Trump factor is unlikely to prevent a rate hike this week, but supports the case for the BoJ to wait several months before delivering another rate hike. USD/JPY tested support at 155.88 earlier. Below, there is support at 155.39 There is resistance at 156.79 and 157.28
by OANDA
USDJPY - Will the weakness of the yen stop?!The USDJPY pairing in the 4 -hour timeframe is between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its mid -term uptrend. If corrected by publishing economic data this week, we can see the downward trend and then the restricted demand zone, and in that area with the right risk. The valid defeat of the specified resistance range will pave the way for the pair up to 160. Tatsu Yamasaki, a former Japanese official, stated in an interview with Nikkei that collaboration between Trump and Tokyo could help normalize the dollar-yen exchange rate. He suggested that Trump should work with Tokyo to weaken the overly strong dollar. Such cooperation could strengthen economic relations between the two nations and bring greater stability to financial markets. Meanwhile, robust U.S. labor market data for December has led many analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates further at this time. Some even predict that the report could pave the way for the Fed to raise interest rates in 2025. An economist at Bank of America wrote in a note, “Our baseline forecast is that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady for an extended period. However, the risk of a rate hike is growing.” According to the economist, factors such as core inflation growth or rising inflation expectations could trigger a rate hike.Concerns also revolve around Trump’s policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, which may contribute to higher inflation. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), remarked that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts due to stable labor markets and inflation nearing target levels. She also predicted that global economic growth will remain steady as inflation gradually declines in 2025. Georgieva highlighted uncertainties surrounding trade policies under the new U.S. administration, emphasizing their potential impact on the global economy. Additionally, she expects global interest rates to remain relatively high for an extended period. Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, stated that interest rates will be raised if economic improvements and price growth continue. He noted that the final decision on this matter will be made next week. Ueda’s remarks contributed to strengthening the yen in financial markets. Himino, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, indicated that if economic projections materialize, monetary easing policies will be adjusted and interest rates increased. He stressed the need for continuous monitoring of U.S. economic policies under the new administration. Domestically, one of the critical issues remains the outlook for wage growth in the fiscal year 2025. Himino acknowledged various risks, both domestic and international, while noting that the U.S. economy is expected to remain strong. Masato Kanda, a former currency official for Japan, continues to comment on the yen. Speaking in Tokyo, he emphasized that currency markets should move based on fundamental principles, and any sudden deviations from these fundamentals require correction. Separately, Nippon Steel announced that it is the sole partner capable of fully preserving U.S. Steel, keeping its blast furnaces operational, and maintaining jobs in the industry. The company stated that its commitments have been shared in multiple meetings with various stakeholders, including employees. Meanwhile, Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cleveland-Cliffs, has been accused of unfair biases, as he cannot match the scope and scale of Nippon Steel’s proposal. Nippon Steel emphasized its determination to take whatever measures are necessary to finalize the deal.
Short
by Ali_PSND
BOJ to discuss rate hike, yen dips lowerThe yen remains calm and is lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.98, up 0.34% on the day. There are no tier-1 events out of Japan this week and the yen is having a relatively quiet week. That could change with the release of US inflation on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% y/y in December from 2.7% in November, while core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Inflation reports have had significant impact on rate expectations but the December inflation rate might not be all that significant, as expectations of a rate cut have fallen in recent weeks. Since the December meeting, the Fed has tried to dampen rate-cut expectations and the market is not expecting a rate cut in the first quarter of 2025. The money markets have currently priced in a quarter-point cut at the Jan. 29 meeting at below 3%  and at the March meeting at around 20%. With inflation largely under control and a solid labor market, there is little reason for the Fed to cut rates in the near term. The Bank of Japan tends not to telegraph its rate plans, leaving investors in the dark and on the hunt for clues about the central bank's rate plans. The uncertainty adds to the drama ahead of BoJ meetings and means that each meeting should be treated as a market-mover. BoJ's Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Tuesday that the BoJ would discuss a rate hike at the Jan. 24 meeting. Himino didn't say what decision he expected the BoJ to make but reiterated Governor's Ueda recent comments that wage growth was solid and that there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies. USD/JPY tested resistance at 158.13 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 158.49 There is support at 157.78 and 157.42
by OANDA
GBPJPY - Will the pound continue to grow?!The GBPJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. If we continue to move towards the supply zone, we can sell with an appropriate risk reward. The downward correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. The mortgage approval statistics for the UK in November indicate that the number of approved mortgages has reached 65.7K, which is below the forecast of 68.7K and the previous figure of 68.3K. Additionally, net consumer credit dropped to £0.9 billion, falling short of the £1.2 billion estimate. Net mortgage lending also declined to £2.5 billion, below the forecast of £3.2 billion and the previous figure of £3.4 billion. The annual consumer credit rate also fell, reaching 6.6%. On Sunday, Elon Musk stated that Nigel Farage should step down from leading the UK’s right-wing Reform Party. Musk wrote on his social platform, X, “The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage lacks the necessary ability.” This statement came despite Musk having appeared to support Farage previously, even taking a photo with him last month. Media outlets had speculated that Musk, a close ally of Donald Trump, the U.S.President-elect, might provide significant financial support to the Reform Party to challenge the UK’s Labour and Conservative parties. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has expressed a bearish outlook on the British pound, pointing to potential rate cuts by the Bank of England as a key factor. The group stated that market pricing for the Bank of England’s rate reductions this year is overly conservative. They anticipate that the Bank of England will implement further cuts, which would likely weaken the pound against other currencies, particularly non-dollar ones. Additionally, with the U.S. dollar showing further signs of weakening, the pound is expected to remain under pressure. The financial group also highlighted rising energy prices as a vulnerability for the UK, particularly in light of Ukraine’s refusal to extend its natural gas transit agreement with Russia to Western Europe. The UK’s limited storage capacity exacerbates its susceptibility to market price fluctuations, increasing concerns about a rise in service costs this year. Higher energy prices are expected to negatively impact consumer spending, weaken business confidence, and drive up overall costs. Meanwhile, a recent private survey revealed that Japan’s service sector activity expanded for the second consecutive month in December, driven by strong demand and increased trade activity. According to the survey conducted by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the final services PMI rose from 50.5 in November to 50.9 in December. While this was lower than the preliminary estimate of 51.4, it remained above the 50.0 threshold for the second consecutive month, signaling economic expansion. The Bank of Japan Governor, Mr. Ueda, recently stated: • There is a possibility of raising interest rates if the economic recovery continues. • The timing of adjustments will depend on economic conditions and inflation trends. • He hopes for balanced growth in wages and prices. • Wage increases remain a critical factor. • The cycle of rising wages, economic recovery, and increased consumption gradually reinforced each other throughout the past year.
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by Ali_PSND
A December to forget for the yenAs the global markets reopen have the New Years' Day, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday. It's a very light economic calendar today, with no Japanese releases and only one US tier event - unemployment claims. In the European session, USD/JPY is currently trading at 157.12, down 0.12% on the day. We can expect a quiet day for the yen. December was absolutely dismal for the yen, which lost which plunged 11% against the US dollar. On Tuesday, the yen dropped to 158.07 per dollar, its lowest level since early July. Investors are nervous that Tokyo could intervene in the currency markets in order to stem the yen's sharp drop. Is the 160 level the red line in the sand for Japanese authorities? Earlier in the week, Japan's Manufacturing PMI was revised to 49.6, up from 49.5 in the initial estimate and above the November reading of 49.0. This marked the sixth straight deceleration in manufacturing activity but was the highest level since September. Manufacturers' sentiment was relatively strong, with optimism for improvement in the semiconductor and auto markets, which have been hit hard over the past several months. The Bank of Japan doesn't typically telegraph its intentions to the market. One reason is the central bank doesn't want to tip its hand to speculators, who are looking to cash in on the yen's sharp swings. The BoJ summary of opinions from the December meeting provide some insights, as the summary indicated that some Bank policymakers are leaning toward a rate hike in the near future. The summary showed that there is a split among the nine-member board over rate policy. The hawkish members argued that conditions are falling into place as inflation is steady and the yen is sliding lower. The doves countered that wage growth is lagging behind inflation. Governor Ueda could be the decisive vote and investors will be following his every word right up to the January 24 meeting. There is resistance at 157.38 and 158.09 USD/JPY tested support at 156.70 earlier. Below, there is support at 155.59
by OANDA
Japan's corporate service inflation rises, yen steadyThe Japanese yen is showing little movement on Christmas Day. Japanese markets are open but with most global markets closed for the holiday, the currency markets will be very quiet today. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.29, up 0.08% on the day. Japanese inflation indicators have been heading higher and the upswing was repeated on Wednesday as Japan's corporate service price index (CSPI) climbed 3.0% in November. This marked a second straight month that CSPI has accelerated, after a 2.9% gain in October. CSPI measures the price that companies charge each other for services and is a leading indicator of service-sector inflation, which is closely watched by the Bank of Japan. The rise in CSPI supports the case that wages are rising and businesses are passing higher costs to consumers. This increase in demand-driven inflation is exactly what the BoJ wants to see before raising interest rates. The BoJ has hinted that further rate hikes are coming but hasn't provided any hints about the timing. There were some expectations of a rate hike at last week's meeting but the central bank stayed on the sidelines and Governor Ueda sounded dovish, saying that inflation was increasing "at a moderate rate" and the BoJ could take its time raising rates. Is Ueda throwing up a smoke screen to keep speculators away when the BoJ is in fact planning a rate hike in the next month or two? Perhaps. Inflation has been trending higher and the yen is falling fast, plunging 9.5% since Oct. 1. The yen pushed past the symbolic 160 level in July and could do so again. If the BoJ is genuinely concerned with the rapid descent of the yen, it will have to consider a rate hike or take more extreme action and intervene in the currency markets to prop up the ailing yen. There is resistance at 157.41 and 157.66 USD/JPY tested support at 157.15 and 156.90 earlier. Below, there is support at 156.64
by OANDA
USD/JPY calm as BoJ Core CPI risesThe Japanese yen is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.33, up 0.11% on the day at the time of writing. The yen is having a dreadful time as it continues to lose ground against the strong US dollar. Since Oct. 1, the yen has plunged 9.5% and the yen's woes could force the Bank of Japan to intervene on the currency markets in order to prop up the ailing currency. The BoJ Core CPI index, which is closely watched by the central bank, rose to 1.7% y/y in November, up from 1.5% in October and above the market estimate or 1.5%. This release follows last week's national headline inflation release, which jumped to 2.9% in November from 2.3% in October. This was the highest level since October 2023.  The gain was driven by sharp increases in food and electricity prices. Notably, core CPI, which excludes food, rose from 2.6% to 2.7% and core-core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed from 2.3% to 2.4%. Any way you cut it, inflation is moving higher and that has raised expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise rates in early 2025. The BoJ held rates at last week's meeting and BOJ Governor Ueda said that since underlying inflation was only increasing "at a moderate pace", the BoJ could take its time in raising rates. However, with inflation rising and the yen pushing closer to the 160 level, the BoJ could respond with a rate hike as early as January. The BoJ is also concerned with the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged to slap tariffs on US trading partners. Bank policy makers will be nervously watching if Trump moves ahead with tariffs or is his bark worse than his bite. The BoJ meets next on Jan.24, a day after Trump is sworn into office. There is resistance at 157.51 and 157.86 156.93 and 156.58 are the next support levels
by OANDA
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USD/JPY price action: breakout rally after hawkish FedThe USD/JPY pair has surged over 2% to reach 157.51, marking the yen's weakest level in four months. This significant rally follows recent interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. Despite the Fed's 25bps rate cut, the US dollar has gained strength due to the market's anticipation of only two rate cuts in 2025, contrasting with earlier expectations of four. This decision maintains the interest rate differential between the US and Japan, benefiting carry trade strategies. Meanwhile, the BoJ has kept its short-term rate steady at 0.25%, its highest since 2008, with potential rate hikes forecasted if economic conditions align. The US's optimistic economic projections, with rising GDP, inflation, and job growth, further bolster the dollar's appeal. As global economic uncertainties and political changes unfold, traders should monitor central bank signals to navigate the USD/JPY's trajectory and carry trade opportunities.
by tastyfx
USD/JPY hits 5-mth high after BoJ holds ratesThe Japanese yen continues its rapid descent and is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.82, up 1.3% on the day. Earlier, the yen weakened to 157.14, its lowest level against the US dollar since July 22. The Bank of Japan didn't have any surprises up its sleeve on Thursday as it maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.25%. The BoJ has kept rates steady since July but has signaled that it intends to normalize policy and raise rates. The central bank has been guarded about the timing of a rate hike and there was some speculation that it might raise rates at Thursday's meeting. The decision to hold rates was not unanimous, with 8 members voting in favor and one member voting for a 25-basis point hike. The rate statement did not shed much light on the BoJ's plans but Governor Ueda said at his press conference that the BoJ could afford to move slowly on raising rates since underlying inflation was only increasing at a "moderate pace". The markets expect another rate hike in the first quarter of 2025. Ueda also noted that there was uncertainty over the policies of the  incoming Trump administration. Trump has declared he will impose tariffs on US trading partners, which could affect global inflation. Interestingly, the BoJ holds its next meeting on Jan. 24, a day after Trump takes office. The Federal Reserve's quarter-point rate cut was widely expected but the market was surprised by the Fed's updated rate-cut forecast. In September, the Fed projected four rate cuts in 2025 but this was halved to just two cuts at the Wednesday meeting. US stock markets were sharply lower in response but the US dollar shined and rose sharply on Wednesday against all the major currencies, including 0.85% against the yen. At his follow-up press conference, Fed Chair Powell said he was "very optimistic" about the strength of the US economy but he was less rosy about inflation, which has stalled above the Fed's 2% target. Powell said, "we have been moving sideways on 12-month inflation", a signal that the Fed may take a pause from its easing cycle until inflation resumes its downswing. USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 155.38 and 155.92 and is putting pressure on resistance at 156.98 154.32 and 153.78 are the next support levels
by OANDA
BOJ RATE BRINGS USDJPY TO 145 LONG TERM The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) upcoming interest rate decision could be a pivotal moment for the USD/JPY currency pair, potentially driving it down to the 145 level. Here's why: Narrowing Interest Rate Differential: If the BoJ decides to raise interest rates or signals an intent to do so in the near future, this would narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S. The U.S. has been maintaining higher interest rates compared to Japan's negative or near-zero rates. A reduction in this gap would make holding Japanese Yen (JPY) relatively more attractive, thus strengthening the JPY against the USD. Market Expectations and Sentiment: Markets often react to expectations before they react to actual news. If there's a growing consensus or speculation that the BoJ might tighten policy, traders might preemptively adjust their portfolios, leading to a stronger JPY. Recent posts on X have hinted at expectations of BoJ rate hikes, which could fuel this sentiment. Technical Analysis Indicators: From a technical standpoint, if the BoJ surprises with hawkish comments or actions, this could trigger a sell-off in USD/JPY. The pair has been hovering around key resistance levels, and a policy shift might push it below significant support levels, potentially aiming for 145. Technical analyses often look for signs of a break below current supports, which could be catalyzed by a BoJ decision. Global Economic Conditions: The global economic landscape, including U.S. economic data like employment figures, inflation rates, and Fed policy, will also play a role. If U.S. data suggests a softening economy or if the Fed signals rate cuts, this would weaken the USD against other currencies, including the JPY. Conversely, a dovish BoJ might not lead to as significant a drop, but the current market sentiment seems to be banking on at least some tightening from Japan. Psychological Levels and Market Dynamics: The 145 mark could act as a psychological level for traders, where large volumes of trading might occur due to this round figure. If the BoJ's actions or statements align with market expectations of a policy shift, this could accelerate the move towards this level, especially if there's already momentum in that direction.
Short
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
What’s Flowing: USD/JPY AnalysisKey Observations: 1. Price Action: • USD/JPY has bounced from 148.65, showing signs of short-term recovery. However, the overall structure remains bearish with descending resistance levels near 150.30-150.50. 2. Technical Indicators: • Moving averages suggest further downside pressure. • Ichimoku cloud analysis highlights resistance in the 149.50-150.30 zone, making it a critical area for sellers. 3. Market Sentiment: • Seasonal trends show a weakening dollar towards year-end, aligning with current selling pressure. • Reuters and Dow Jones reports emphasize geopolitical influences and Japan’s policy stability driving yen strength. 4. News Highlights: • Massive $1.4 billion option expiry today, with strikes at 147, 148, and 150, could add volatility. • Recent headlines note importer buying interest near 146.50, setting up potential support levels. 5. Support and Resistance: • Immediate support: 146.28 and 145.00. • Resistance: 149.50, followed by the psychological 150.30 level. Trade Insights: • Bias: Short-term pullbacks may provide opportunities for selling rallies. • Risk Management: Stop-loss near 150.50 for short trades. Profit targets near 146.50 and 145.00. This week’s flow will likely hinge on U.S. economic data releases and further commentary from Japan’s BOJ. Be cautious of mid-week reversals.
Short
by moneymagnateash
BOJ’s Ueda hints at rate hike, yen dipsThe Japanese yen is lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.03, up 0.26% on the day. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been hinting about a rate hike and gave what was perhaps his strongest hint on Friday. In a newspaper interview, Ueda said that interest rate hikes are “nearing in the sense that economic data are on track”. Ueda also added that the BoJ has a “big question mark” over the outlook for US economic policy, with Donald Trump taking office next month. Ueda reiterated that the central bank wants to see a sustainable rise by inflation to the 2% target and expressed concern about the weak yen, warning the BoJ could respond with “countermeasures”. The BoJ makes its next rate announcement on Dec.19. Will it raise rates at that meeting or wait until January? The BoJ has done a poor job of communicating its intentions and after the surprise BoJ rate hike in August triggered turmoil in the financial markets. Ueda’s comments may have been an attempt to show greater transparency, although he failed to mention a timeline for the next rate hike. The markets have fully priced in a rate hike by January, with the probability of a December hike at around 60%. In the US, it’s a busy data calendar, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released later today, with a market estimate of 47.5 for November, compared to 46.5 in October. Manufacturing has been in a prolonged recession, with only one month of growth over the past two years. USD/JPY tested resistance at 150.30 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 151.13 There is support at 148.89 and 148.06
by OANDA
Yen soars as Japan’s core inflation jumpsThe Japanese yen has surged higher on Friday after a strong inflation release. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.19, down 0.87% on the day. Earlier, the yen has broken below the symbolic 150 level for the first time since Oct. 21. Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation indicator which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 2.2% in November, above market expectations of 2.1% and above the October gain of 1.8%. Tokyo CPI jumped 2.6% in November, blowing past the October reading of 1.8% and the forecast of 1.9%. The robust inflation data has sent the yen sharply higher as expectations for a December rate hike have climbed. The markets still aren’t sure which way the wind is blowing and have priced a December cut at around 60%. The Bank of Japan won’t win any points for transparency about its rate plans but the BoJ has hinted that its plans to continue raising rates and moving towards normalization. If the BoJ stays on the sidelines next month, it is expected to trim rates in early 2025. The BoJ has more on its mind than inflation when it comes to rate policy. The yen has been on a miserable slide since early October, although it has shown some strength this week. The BoJ is under pressure to raise rates in order to support the yen, although a quarter-point rate may not provide much of a boost. If the yen continues to lose ground and moves back towards the 155-160 level, we can expect the Ministry of Finance and the BoJ to warn about a possible currency intervention. This would be a last resort but Tokyo has carried through with interventions when it felt the yen was depreciating too quickly. USD/JPY has pushed below several support lines today. Currently, there is weak support at 149.89, followed closely by 149.63 152.05 and 152.54 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBPJPY - Yen will continue to grow?!The GBPJPY currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. If it continues to move towards the demand zones, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. The upward correction of this currency pair towards the supply zone will provide us with the next selling position. Higher inflation in Tokyo has increased the likelihood of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in its December meeting. The Cabinet Office of Japan released its September economic report, maintaining its overall assessment of the country’s economic condition. According to the report, Japan’s economy continues to recover at a moderate pace. The report also highlighted an improvement in bankruptcy conditions, marking the first positive trend in this area in 42 months. This improvement reflects greater stability within Japan’s business sector. Furthermore, the report noted a slowdown in the rise of corporate product prices, which could lead to a more balanced market. The Cabinet Office emphasized the need to closely monitor U.S. economic policies, as shifts in these policies could significantly impact Japan’s economy. Analysts at JP Morgan predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates twice in 2025, in April and October, bringing its policy rate to 1.0% by the end of the year. Additionally, they forecast two further rate hikes in 2026, pushing rates to 1.5%. JP Morgan noted that the Bank of Japan’s independent monetary policies could result in weaker performance for Japanese yields compared to other developed markets. Meanwhile, the Japan Manufacturing Workers Union, representing small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises, has demanded a minimum base wage increase of 15,000 yen in next year’s wage negotiations. This request exceeds last year’s demand by at least 3,000 yen and marks the highest wage increase proposed in the union’s history. The ultimate goal is to achieve an overall wage increase exceeding 19,500 yen. This development could be seen as positive news for Japan’s government and central bank, as rising wages might indicate mounting inflationary pressures, supporting the normalization of monetary policies. Tamaki, a member of Japan’s Democratic Party for the People (DPP), stated that the Bank of Japan should evaluate its policies based on wage outcomes for small businesses. He warned that excessive tightening of monetary policy could risk a return to deflation. Tamaki stressed the importance of not rushing changes in monetary and fiscal policies. In the UK, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced a £26 billion ($33 billion) business tax hike that could result in the loss of up to 130,000 jobs. If employers pass this financial burden onto the workforce by reducing employment, the unemployment rate could increase by 0.4%. The analysis also suggests that businesses might respond to higher employer national insurance contributions by cutting working hours or staff. Separately, the Bank of England recently reported results from its latest stress tests, indicating that all major UK financial institutions are resilient enough to withstand worst-case economic scenarios. While the results have not raised specific concerns, the Bank emphasized its commitment to ongoing close monitoring of the situation.
Short
by Ali_PSND
Yen rally fizzles, Tokyo Core CPI expected to riseThe Japanese yen is lower on Thursday, after climbing 2.4% over the past two trading sessions. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.83, up 0.57% on the day. On the data calendar, Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI. In the US, the financial markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and there are no US events. Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, will be released on Friday. The market estimate for November stands at 2.1% y/y, following a 1.8% gain in October, which was the lowest level since April. The headline rate is expected to rise from 1.8% to 1.9%. October inflation numbers have been mixed. The Bank of Japan Core CPI index surprised on the downside with a 1.5% gain, down from 1.7% in September. However, services inflation inched up to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in September and above the forecast of 2.5%. If the Tokyo inflation release accelerates as expected, it will likely raise expectations of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan at the Dec. 19 meeting. Inflation isn’t the only item on the minds of BoJ policymakers. There is significant political uncertainty both at home and abroad. Prime Minister Ishiba lost his majority in parliament in the October election and needs opposition support to pass a supplementary budget. In the US, President-elect Trump is threatening to slap tariffs on its trading partners, which could have massive negative implications for Japan’s auto industry, a key sector of the economy. On Wednesday, US GDP (second estimate) confirmed the initial estimate gain of 2.8% for the third quarter. This indicates solid economic growth, which has been helped by strong consumer spending. The worries about a recession have subsided and the Fed has signaled that it plans to gradually continue trimming interest rates. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 151.60. Above, there is resistance at 152.75 149.97 and 148.82 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USDJPY - The weakness of the yen will stop?!The USDJPY currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its upward channel. In case of correction due to the release of economic data this week, we can see demand zone and buy within that range with appropriate risk reward. Breaking the downtrend line and the specified resistance range will pave the way for the currency pair to rise to the supply zone. We will sell currency pairs in that range. Bank of Japan (BOJ) to Release Review of Monetary Policy Tools According to Reuters, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is set to release the findings of a comprehensive review next month, evaluating the advantages and drawbacks of various unconventional monetary policy tools employed over the past 25 years to combat deflation. This review is seen as a symbolic step towards ending BOJ’s era of massive stimulus measures. The report will include findings and surveys that justify BOJ’s plan to gradually normalize its monetary policies. The review’s results are expected to be published after the final BOJ policy meeting of the year, scheduled for December 18–19, and may include a potential rate hike from the current level of 0.25%. Japan’s ruling coalition, comprising the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, has reached an agreement with the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP) on an economic stimulus package. The package includes cash handouts for low-income households, subsidies to assist with utility bill payments, and additional investments in artificial intelligence and semiconductors. The three parties have agreed to raise the income tax threshold and continue discussions on reducing gasoline taxes. This agreement requires legislative revisions to be addressed during next year’s parliamentary session. Following the ruling coalition’s loss of its majority in the lower house, DPP’s support has become crucial for advancing the package. However, some economists have expressed skepticism about the package’s limited impact on boosting consumer spending. BOJ Chief Kazuo Ueda’s Remarks: Kazuo Ueda, the BOJ Governor, stressed the need for the government to monitor medium-term financial sustainability. He stated that the policies of the new U.S. administration will be closely examined and integrated into Japan’s economic outlook as a key priority.Ueda also highlighted the transformative impact of generative AI on the financial industry. Massive Treasury Bond Sell-Off by Japan and China Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Japan and China, two of the largest holders of U.S. government debt, sold significant amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds during the third quarter of this year. Japanese investors offloaded a record $61.9 billion worth of these bonds in the quarter ending September 30, while Chinese funds sold $51.3 billion in the same period, marking the second-largest volume recorded. These sell-offs occurred ahead of the U.S. presidential election and Donald Trump’s victory.
Long
by Ali_PSND