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ridethepig | JPY Spot Commentary 2020.01.23USDJPY with important updates from the overnight Asian session. A technical break of the key 109.7x that we have been tracking has opened up the downside. Holding shorts and selling rallies remains my favoured play, all levels remain the same 109.7x broken support, 109.2x initial targets, 107.6x and 106.6x extensions. While to the topside reassessment needed above 102.3. The struggle for liberation has been carried out, sellers have taken control in the jurisdiction and should continue the attack on support. The elimination of the channel base (breakout it out) from the swing, afterwards targets should be directed and aimed at the new 2020 swing: For the rest of the flows, the key level in play is 109.7x now to the topside. This has been clearly broken and with no one wanting to fight alone against the USD devaluation, sellers are ready to beat the living daylight out of late buyers! Good luck all those on the sell side, a lot of meat left on the bone and we can open up the short-term flows if we get enough interest in the comments below. As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
USDJPY and the US 2 YEAR YIELD CORRELATION 'CRACK'Since the YC inversion in August last year (2019), there has been a "crack" in correlation between the US02Y and USDJPY. I expected the YEN to strengthen as the Japanese short the dollar against the YEN to hedge against the rising US Govt bond prices (due to the rate cuts) considering Japan holds a significant amount of US Govt debt. My initial thoughts on this is that the BOJ is focused on keeping the YEN weak to stimulate its export sector which accounts for a significant amount of its trade. At the expense of its debt ballooning ????? I'll be looking into this during the weekend. -Surecapital
by Txnytradesfx
1
ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2020.01.06On the risk front, JPY demand running out of steam from the initial knee-jerk via Iran tensions and asking for a squeeze. I am tracking 108.6x on the day to add to my shorts. Targets below are located at 107.3x support while stops can be kept comfortably above 108.9x resistance. JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and warrants increasing bearish exposure. After clearing first targets in the initial 2020 swing: Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | USDJPY 2020 Macro MapOn the USD side, we have dollar devaluation in play via Fed flooding the supply side and marking the monthly highs in Dollar: On the JPY side, I am looking for an eventful year on the risk front. Japan will benefit in search of safety with late cycle fears only temporarily abating: On the technical side, for those in a background with waves and wanting to dig deeper into the legs we are trading: Even with yield advantage over JGBs I expect risk to control the flows in particular as we get close to US elections providing a choppy zig zag. There will be good demand for USDJPY below 105 (as Japanese investors have been riding the pig overseas) so look to take partial profits on the way, 100 remains my final target in the flow. Best of luck all those in USDJPY and positioning for 2020 flows - you can see other strategies below! Thanks for supporting with a like and keeping your ideas and views coming in the comments!
Short
by ridethepig
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ridethepig | JPY Market Commentary 2019.12.30In this thesis the USD devaluation is playing the main role for 1H20, risk flows will join the party in 2H20 and as you know by now flows with both fundamentals and technicals behind it can be considered to be on solid foundations. Let us compare the USDJPY with a recently published chart. Then the US capital outflows were expected to do the heavy lifting: In the next diagram let us imagine the channel highs had broken and resistance was cracked - then the flows would be invalidated and closed (the capital would have exhausted). In this case, the highs held as anticipated, there follows large offers from smart money pinging out price and sending loud signals that the move is not weak - how can anything be weak if it cannot be broken? Or imagine this next diagram with a before and after the fact instead. Now there is no question we were still looking for sells and expecting large hands to defend. This is painfully felt by retail after the breakup move... although bulls achieved nothing and could not hold the stops, whereas with those sharp enough to sell above the highs are fading the exuberance and at least in this example we are crippling the opposition backward for a certain length of time enough to eliminate risk: For those wanting to track Gold in the background with Santanomics in full swing: Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
1
ORBEX: Trump LOST Round 1 of Impeachment Battle!Trump was impeached yesterday and lost! But the trial timing remains in doubt, keeping parties on their toes! Meanwhile, BoJ kept interest rates unchanged overnight and now we have to wait and see if BoE adds to the downside risks on #no-deal fears, or encourage bulls with a rather hawkish stance? I talk about all that in today’s market insights while analysing watch-listed FX Minors that move (hint: Loonie)! Timestamps GBPAUD 4H 02:30 CADJPY 4H 03:45 USDMXN 4H 05:40 Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
ridethepig | JPY Capital FlowsAfter getting the breakout we were tracking for in USDJPY we are now back and revisiting our infamous "Loading Zone" area at 109.3x right in time for BOJ to maintain the status quo. Outside of a knee jerk via risk I expect USDJPY to hold 108 - 109 range until we clear BOJ next week. Odds of Japanese rates being taken further into the red is declining, meaning the BOJ is likely to sound hawkish via maintaining the status quo flows towards 100. Japanese consumption is falling alongside production after the tax hike and we are already starting to see this show up in store closures throughout the country, however, you can see some are already starting to argue a case for Global manufacturing recovery (unlikely with protectionism via Trump). JPY inflows will continue to come via risk as long as BOJ remains on hold and warrants increasing bearish exposure. Looking to add more $JPY shorts into the 109.3x resistance with clear jurisdictions mapped on both sides, resistance is initially found at 109.3x. While to the downside support is located at 108.2x which holds the key to unlocking the 2020 macro leg towards 100. Thanks for keeping the likes and comments coming, as usual jump into the conversation with your charts and questions!
Short
by ridethepig
5
ridethepig | USDJPY Market Commentary 2019.11.26Here we are trading USDJPY at the highs in the range with macro risk-off themes still remaining in play and unchanged despite how the local news is selling the extended bull market. On the monetary side, BOJ clearly have their hands tied with the ECB/FED coordination. To put simply, any BoJ easing will follow ECB/FED which will be positive JPY via risk factors. On the rate differential sides, UST and JGB continue the decline which still indicates lower USDJPY. Here I am tracking for the leg towards 100 and beyond as USD devaluation kicks in. On the technical side, tracking 109.0x steel resistance with 107.0x support holding the key to unlocking the swing towards 100.xx. Good luck all those holding $JPY ... a very interesting environment as we enter into year-end.
Short
by ridethepig
USD/JPY: Don't sleep on this short opportunity Yesterdays setup was very specific and for good reason. Our specific strategy for this short setup yesterday was designed to be able to resist any "fake outs" or simple upside that came from the pair at the key levels shown in those charts at that time. Yesterday's amount of short sellers who're either close to being margin called or already hav given us the ability to jump in with there stops. Yesterday's failure for price to reject said zones/levels and break, sustain, and close below them, showed both the lack of liquidity, and follow through/ conviction in the market. This can be attributed to a few things, namely;; seasonality. Since then, UJ has pushed up and we can now look for trades in a different setup. It's interesting at the current levels however, making a new higher-high which gives us an opportunity regardless of shorter term 40hr bias. 110 out my upside this week at this point. This is taken into account using options data from Bloomberg. There are a lot of option expiring both in the 110 and 108ish key levels so it's key remember this can go long. I'll place the options data below, USD/JPY 108.00 1.5bn USD 108.10 603m 108.35 626m 108.40 400m 108.45 740m 108.50 810m 108.65 454m 108.70 429m 108.72 419m 108.75 400m 108.90 532m 108.95 1.3bn 108.96 665m 109.00 891m 109.15 995m 109.50 790m 109.75 540m 109.80 480m 110.00 1.4bn
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3442968
5
Worm In The Apple - Live UK Election Debate Coverage!A good time to update for those tracking the GBPJPY position I posted yesterday will remember the timely entry, those unfamiliar with the chart can see here: Risk-off is entering back into the picture and JPY is finding a strong bid, with Pound in election mode momentum is not particularly impressive to the upside. A Conservative majority seems a done deal now, Brexit is coming and no one wants to get long Pound at these levels with a disaster on the horizon. For the flows you can see how those who go against the grain here will get caught with pants down. The market can move with force with direction shifted to sell. Under normal circumstances this would be a good level to buy, however given the action at the highs it is a terrible position. Expecting bears to chase it out to the downside over the coming sessions. Our objective here is to trap those buying expecting continuation, the pendulum will swing back to the negative side after the Debate is cleared tonight. Bears will have to cover quickly as it will move like a hot knife and butter, those caught up at the highs buying are already struggling. Ideally we want the sellers to hold the buyers stops and trigger further momentum, this is the market telling us what direction is the right direction. An interesting graphic I shared here last week: I recommended a short in the Tradingview Portfolio yesterday with the People vs Establishment narrative brewing, sentiment is quite negative and continuing to create flows into risk-off assets. Today you are starting to see JPY and Gold outperform, you will see the same thing in sentiment continue to gain momentum over the coming sessions. Continuing to add shorts at 140.50...In an ideal world I would like to see offers come in here and on the break we need to see the stops not hold at 140.25. Market is going to keep searching for stops to the downside and here looking to target the 139.xx handle for my initial targets. The aim of this post is to highlight a textbook case of "biting the apple that has a worm". Good luck all those on the sell side for tonight's debate. I will be covering the flows live in the comments section, as usual jump in at any time with any questions!
Short
by ridethepig
USD/JPY: Look at the 107.00 levelThe USD/JPY pair reached an important daily resistance zone, forming a bearish candlestick pattern (yesterday's long lower wick and today's strong bearish candle.) The daily RSI is forming a bearish divergence, signaling that the recent up-move is losing momentum. The low of the up-move represents a lower low - a characteristic of a downtrend. The JPY has weakened in the last days as markets expect an easing stance from the Bank of Japan's next meeting. However, I believe that BoJ will maintain its current interest rates for a few reasons: 1) The JPY is not too strong at the moment, and unless we see USD/JPY around 100.00, BoJ doesn't have to worry. 2) The Fed has to be very aggressive with their upcoming rate cuts for the BoJ to lower rates as well. 3) The BoJ already has negative rates, with cutting rates further having diminishing effects. Please hit the "LIKE" button if you find this analysis useful. Thanks!
Short
by MujkanovicFX
ORBEX: Pre-BoE GBJPY, Post-Fed USDMXNIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPJPY and #USDMXN! #Pound Remains Solid: - MPs support 3-month extension - Monthly CPI rise not as expected, but improved #Yen Likely to Weaken: - BoJ held rates unchanged but acknowledged increasing risks - Ultraloose policy to be re-examined at October meeting #MXN Supported By Fed: - Emerging currencies will benefit from rate differentials - Oil is bid and likely to move higher Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
EUR,USD,JPY Go Nuts After ECB! Fed, BoJ Expectations More DovishIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse EURUSD and USDJPY! Euro, dragged lower by the reinstation of the QE programme, was able to reverse post-ECB losses on the back of: - Limited rate cut compared to markets expectations (only 10 basis points) - Draghi's call on governments for fiscal stimulus (supporting EA economies?) - Widening yield differential against the dollar (ECB can't move lower, Fed can) - Expectations that the Fed will cut next week (a weaker dollar) On the other hand, the yen was also negatively affected by ECB's decision to ease. But with an ultraloose policy in the books for quite a number of years now anyway, easing would be worst in Japan rather than in the US. Hence the bullishness in USDJPY! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
Chart of the dad: Oh my Yen....I had previously posted a weekly chart on the $JPY which highlighted the volatility coil which the $JPY has been trading in since the start of Abe/Kuroda monetary experiment. Well...the $JPY is at the tippy end now and will it break down or will the wedge's lower boundary hold? With the BoJ out of "conventional" ammunition and seemingly on hold, is the $JPY a passenger to the Fed now??? The trade weighted dollar is losing momentum gradually as expectations of a full Fed rate cut cycle gets priced in, will the $JPY hold or break down??? Exciting times!
by WellTrainedMonkey
Short trend continuation on Eur/JpyIs it possible to see a price compression on EurJpy. In fact the price is moving within the channel between the static support identified by 61.8% of the Fibonacci retracement (placed at 120.05) and between the static resistance identified by 50% of the Fibonacci retracement. Technically, so far, this pair is set downwards. This on short/medium term time frames. With the violation of the EMA 20 daily periods, the price appears to be destined to reach the support area. The one just mentioned. An intermediate target is the support of minor importance located at 120.85. On both daily, weekly and monthly time frames, there was a cross-over of the main EMAs (or 200 perodi with 20). This means that sales on the European currency have not ended. Investors are preferring to move capital to the Japanese currency. This decline is also fundamentally justified. This because although the ultra-expansive monetary policy of the BOJ is already known and has not been changed for a long time. The ECB, according to Draghi's words and the macroeconomic data of the Eurozone, will also tend to be in the coming months more expansive than she already is. Causing a devaluation of the euro. Our target is near the price of 120
by BFCMInvest